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[QUOTE="javadoc, post: 4026778, member: 338"]
It starts as a proxy for offers.  To the extent that the coaches of the offering teams know what they're doing, there can be some value there.  Questions:  does the rating algorithm capture that value accurately?  How much is it futzed based on the site's business prejudices?

If I were developing an analytical model for rating prospects, I would include a factor for how successful the recruiting staff was at identifying talent that others couldn't see.  I doubt seriously that any of the recruiting sites have that factor built into their models.  Which undercuts the entire premise of basing the initial estimate on extant offers.

We're arguing about what happens outside the window of "Alabama and Ohio State offered these kids".  I'll bet that if you did a statistical analysis of the reliability of site rankings based on their own numerical rating (i.e. 4.7 instead of "4 star") you would find that the reliability drops off [B]enormously[/B] the further you go down the scale.
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