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[QUOTE="TheCusian, post: 2383981, member: 2585"]
I'm not sure many people check this stuff out or care too deeply, but I enjoy the perspective I get from digging into the numbers a bit. I've been accused of being too positive about our team - and the numbers help my expectations stay grounded.

Last week I thought looking at Wake, that the board (myself very much included) was underrating them by a lot. I said numbers wise they were looking more like NC State than like Pitt. I didn't predict we'd lose - but I didn't think we'd have 100+ total points scored with us starting The Officer either.

Anyways - I think this week we've probably sunk back into a collective "here we go again" too comfortably. This Louisville team is not the team we played last year. They were very good on D last year ([B]S&P+ D Rank: 19[/B]) - this year, they are awful ([B]S&P+ Rank: 98[/B]). Everyone remembers Jackson hurdling our CB last year one his way to the Heisman, but that was kind of Dino's coming out party offensively (414 yards of O eclipsed all games vs FBS teams in FHCSS last year).

I think this will be a shootout, weather or not. We have a shot with Mahoney ([I]in some ways [/I]he runs the O better than ED). We need our D to bend but not break, even knowing that they will vs Jackson a fair amount. I think we can win. I put it at 45%.

Here's your [URL='https://jacob-souva-2jot.squarespace.com/s/Cuse_vs_Louisville_2017.pdf']small PDF version[/URL].

And the breakdown (look at that Louisville D!):

[IMG]https://static1.squarespace.com/static/528fc8ffe4b070ad8ee97493/t/5a0f2cf771c10bcd4303ac3e/1510944008279/Cuse_vs_Louisville_2017.png?format=1000w[/IMG]
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