So some thoughts on storylines (I'm not including health concerns as those are obviously key, but they are every year) as I see them through seven games and staring a big game (pitt) and big stretch (winnable games but on the road at Pitt and Ga Tech and big challenges vs. UVA and at L'ville) where they need to hold serve on the road (never easy) and ideally steal a game from a team they're unlikely to beat (we're usually good for at least one of these a year).
Here we go:
What tempo does this team play at the rest of the year?
We spent a good chunk of the first, oh, 19 games of the year playing at a snail's pace. The thought, presumably, on JB's part was that most of our offense was going to come from Howard/Battle shooting or driving with the ball and with a shorter bench, not much scoring elsewhere (Brissett solid but struggling with inefficiency) and a solid defense/rebounding combo -- the play is to try and shorten the game and limit mistakes. Hard to argue with that in many ways.
That said, our best wins feel like they've come with a bit more tempo -- 72 against UMD (not a scoring fest, but we haven't hit the 70-point mark with any regularity and tonight was only the second time we hit that mark in ACC play), 81 in what was a solid win vs. Buffalo, and 83 vs. BC. I feel like we're athletic enough to score in unsettled situations and even if it's just early shot clock offense, if Battle or Howard get a jumper in rhythm or a step on a defender, we might as well take advantage of that.
I'm not trying to make too much of a one-game sample tonight -- a night when we hit nearly everything we threw up. But it's worth mentioning that not only did we put up 83 while playing stall ball for the final six minutes, but we saw more guys get involved. Game started with the typical trio doing all the damage, but wound up with solid contributions from both Dolezaj and Chuckwu. Not just garbage buckets, but nice solid offensive plays that helped salt that game away.
Do guys grow into roles?
One of the big challenges for this team is that you have guys being asked to do things they aren't quite ready to do. Battle's been fine as the lead dog (yes, we can nit pick, but dude came into the BC game averaging 19/game in ACC play despite struggling from 3), but Howard would probably be better as a key rotational player and supplementary scorer as opposed to our number 2 threat, Brissett is very talented but still figuring his game out a bit and the Dolezaj/Moyer/Chuckwu crew is obviously offensively challenged and Washington isn't getting much run.
So I don't think we're going to see massive changes but can Chuckwu convert at a little higher clip when he's getting lobs or loose balls underneath (not so much shooting percentage. We all know he's missed some layups, but I think the bigger issue is catching and going up before getting stripped)? Can Frank manage his turnovers a bit better -- even if only against teams that aren't in-your-face pressure defenses? Can Dolezaj look for his offense a bit more? Can Moyer get himself to good spots on the floor to become more of a factor on catch-and-finish plays or offensive rebounds?
Out of all of those Dolezaj is the most intriguing to me. His scoring has been almost non-existent in ACC play and his minutes have dipped significantly as well. But on the flip side, I think he's a MUCH better defender than Moyer and I actually think he has some offensive ability.
Regardless, I don't think the change has to be drastic but the makeup of this team is dramatically different if a couple of those things happen. How likely is it? Not very, but it's happened before and this is a really young team. So there's hope.
Can Brissett become a more efficient scorer
No one tell the NBA this, but Brissett is shooting around 40% from three in ACC play (despite impossibly bad two-point shooting rates) and is 50% (10 for 20) in his last five games. Those step backs from the corner were NBA (shhhhh) moves. If he continues shooting well from three, starts taking that foul line jumper when it's there and converts a few more from in close, he becomes a nightmare matchup for almost any team. I'd also think he's the type of athlete who would benefit from the freedom that comes from early-clock offense. Again, don't want to start calling him Lebron after a nice game against BC (where he finished with 13, by the way), but if that shooting keeps up, that will be a good thing.
Consistency
It's hard to look at a team -- any team -- and fault them for giving up some open looks over the course of a game. Sometimes teams have sets or guys that create matchup problems and it gives you fits. Sometimes bad offense puts a defense in bad spots and, obviously, we're not great offensively. Sometimes guys make tough shots or just seem to make most of what they put up (I'm sure BC is wondering what the hell happened last night, for example.
But this team, while it gives great effort consistently, has some puzzling stretches defensively (and offensively as well, of course). The opening six possessions for BC last night yielded an easy deuce and four great looks from three. It was just weird -- howard got caught watching the ball and sinking too low multiple times. If we have any chance of stealing a game or two from the upper echelon of this conference (which we probably have to do), we've got to be able to play 40 mins of solid ball on both ends. Doesn't have to be perfect or pretty, per se, but you've got to avoid flat stretches. That's what killed us against ND in the early part of the second half.
What is Howard Washington's role?
We all know JB is unlikely to just start running HW 10+ minutes a game. You can criticize him for this -- and some of it is fair -- but you can also see the dilemma. Taking any of the three top dogs off the floor creates major issues unless either Washington or some combination of Chuckwu/Moyer/Dolezaj can at least serve as an adequate offensive threat. Having said that, the minutes are an issue. We saw last night what a rested version of this team looks like, at least against a not great ACC team. Compare that with what we've seen so far this season.
The season starts, everything is at home, most games are on decent rest and we look pretty solid. Then we hit that first stretch of travel and go to Miami for the KU game (lost to a better team, no excuse really) but came home and traveled to NYC three days later and looked sluggish and out of sync vs. a terrible UConn team.
Then, week off before G'town and we get a decent win and follow it up three days later at home with a W against UB (possibly one of our best performances and wins of the year) but in our third game in six days we lay an egg against St. Bonaventure with both Battle and Howard struggling mightily.
Then there's a five day break, cruise past e. michigan, then another four days and we beat up on VA Tech.
Then we have the heart of the ACC schedule where we're doing three-game weeks quite often and we've generally struggled for the better part of it. Then a week off and we look good against a lower-half but still improved BC team.
This is hardly scientific and some of those losses are due to a variety of issues that rest alone or play Washington a bit more doesn't really solve. BUT, it's worth wondering if we can get our guards bit of a breather from time to time and get six minutes a game from HW, does it maybe turn one of those games from a loss to a win? ND? Bonaventure? Hard to say but interesting to watch as we continue the grind.
Here we go:
What tempo does this team play at the rest of the year?
We spent a good chunk of the first, oh, 19 games of the year playing at a snail's pace. The thought, presumably, on JB's part was that most of our offense was going to come from Howard/Battle shooting or driving with the ball and with a shorter bench, not much scoring elsewhere (Brissett solid but struggling with inefficiency) and a solid defense/rebounding combo -- the play is to try and shorten the game and limit mistakes. Hard to argue with that in many ways.
That said, our best wins feel like they've come with a bit more tempo -- 72 against UMD (not a scoring fest, but we haven't hit the 70-point mark with any regularity and tonight was only the second time we hit that mark in ACC play), 81 in what was a solid win vs. Buffalo, and 83 vs. BC. I feel like we're athletic enough to score in unsettled situations and even if it's just early shot clock offense, if Battle or Howard get a jumper in rhythm or a step on a defender, we might as well take advantage of that.
I'm not trying to make too much of a one-game sample tonight -- a night when we hit nearly everything we threw up. But it's worth mentioning that not only did we put up 83 while playing stall ball for the final six minutes, but we saw more guys get involved. Game started with the typical trio doing all the damage, but wound up with solid contributions from both Dolezaj and Chuckwu. Not just garbage buckets, but nice solid offensive plays that helped salt that game away.
Do guys grow into roles?
One of the big challenges for this team is that you have guys being asked to do things they aren't quite ready to do. Battle's been fine as the lead dog (yes, we can nit pick, but dude came into the BC game averaging 19/game in ACC play despite struggling from 3), but Howard would probably be better as a key rotational player and supplementary scorer as opposed to our number 2 threat, Brissett is very talented but still figuring his game out a bit and the Dolezaj/Moyer/Chuckwu crew is obviously offensively challenged and Washington isn't getting much run.
So I don't think we're going to see massive changes but can Chuckwu convert at a little higher clip when he's getting lobs or loose balls underneath (not so much shooting percentage. We all know he's missed some layups, but I think the bigger issue is catching and going up before getting stripped)? Can Frank manage his turnovers a bit better -- even if only against teams that aren't in-your-face pressure defenses? Can Dolezaj look for his offense a bit more? Can Moyer get himself to good spots on the floor to become more of a factor on catch-and-finish plays or offensive rebounds?
Out of all of those Dolezaj is the most intriguing to me. His scoring has been almost non-existent in ACC play and his minutes have dipped significantly as well. But on the flip side, I think he's a MUCH better defender than Moyer and I actually think he has some offensive ability.
Regardless, I don't think the change has to be drastic but the makeup of this team is dramatically different if a couple of those things happen. How likely is it? Not very, but it's happened before and this is a really young team. So there's hope.
Can Brissett become a more efficient scorer
No one tell the NBA this, but Brissett is shooting around 40% from three in ACC play (despite impossibly bad two-point shooting rates) and is 50% (10 for 20) in his last five games. Those step backs from the corner were NBA (shhhhh) moves. If he continues shooting well from three, starts taking that foul line jumper when it's there and converts a few more from in close, he becomes a nightmare matchup for almost any team. I'd also think he's the type of athlete who would benefit from the freedom that comes from early-clock offense. Again, don't want to start calling him Lebron after a nice game against BC (where he finished with 13, by the way), but if that shooting keeps up, that will be a good thing.
Consistency
It's hard to look at a team -- any team -- and fault them for giving up some open looks over the course of a game. Sometimes teams have sets or guys that create matchup problems and it gives you fits. Sometimes bad offense puts a defense in bad spots and, obviously, we're not great offensively. Sometimes guys make tough shots or just seem to make most of what they put up (I'm sure BC is wondering what the hell happened last night, for example.
But this team, while it gives great effort consistently, has some puzzling stretches defensively (and offensively as well, of course). The opening six possessions for BC last night yielded an easy deuce and four great looks from three. It was just weird -- howard got caught watching the ball and sinking too low multiple times. If we have any chance of stealing a game or two from the upper echelon of this conference (which we probably have to do), we've got to be able to play 40 mins of solid ball on both ends. Doesn't have to be perfect or pretty, per se, but you've got to avoid flat stretches. That's what killed us against ND in the early part of the second half.
What is Howard Washington's role?
We all know JB is unlikely to just start running HW 10+ minutes a game. You can criticize him for this -- and some of it is fair -- but you can also see the dilemma. Taking any of the three top dogs off the floor creates major issues unless either Washington or some combination of Chuckwu/Moyer/Dolezaj can at least serve as an adequate offensive threat. Having said that, the minutes are an issue. We saw last night what a rested version of this team looks like, at least against a not great ACC team. Compare that with what we've seen so far this season.
The season starts, everything is at home, most games are on decent rest and we look pretty solid. Then we hit that first stretch of travel and go to Miami for the KU game (lost to a better team, no excuse really) but came home and traveled to NYC three days later and looked sluggish and out of sync vs. a terrible UConn team.
Then, week off before G'town and we get a decent win and follow it up three days later at home with a W against UB (possibly one of our best performances and wins of the year) but in our third game in six days we lay an egg against St. Bonaventure with both Battle and Howard struggling mightily.
Then there's a five day break, cruise past e. michigan, then another four days and we beat up on VA Tech.
Then we have the heart of the ACC schedule where we're doing three-game weeks quite often and we've generally struggled for the better part of it. Then a week off and we look good against a lower-half but still improved BC team.
This is hardly scientific and some of those losses are due to a variety of issues that rest alone or play Washington a bit more doesn't really solve. BUT, it's worth wondering if we can get our guards bit of a breather from time to time and get six minutes a game from HW, does it maybe turn one of those games from a loss to a win? ND? Bonaventure? Hard to say but interesting to watch as we continue the grind.
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