strange stats on offense against top 10 vs against non-top 10

[Millhouse]

Against FBS (throw out URI) with Lester as OC

Against top 10 teams (FSU last year, LSU and Clemson this year)
338 ypg
23.7 ppg
5.3 yards per play

Against everyone else
291 ypg
19.3 ppg (which includes OT, defense, kick returns)
4.7 yards per play

percentage difference
vs top 10 teams, they're 16% better in yards per game, 23% better in points per game, 13% better in yards per play

This really makes no sense. Dungey is a good passer. Good passing should matter. But these three games were with Long and Mahoney. Long was a breath of fresh air against FSU but it still wasn't a great game. 16-27 for 167, 2 td and 2 int is fine for a freshman against FSU in his first game but it's not something you build a statue over.

if you just compare 2015 non top 10 vs 2014-15 top ten, it's about even (more YPG vs top 10, a hair less points due to defense and OT, and a hair fewer yards per play)

Our QB rating vs LSU 2015 , FSU 2014 and Clemson 2015 (top 10) is 99.

If your offense is better when your qb rating is worse, something is off.

 

[Millhouse]

it's football, the sample size is always going to be small. do we need to give lester a couple hundred games so you're happier with the sample size?

 

[CUSU]

Against FBS (throw out URI) with Lester as OC

Against top 10 teams (FSU last year, LSU and Clemson this year)
338 ypg
23.7 ppg
5.3 yards per play

Against everyone else
291 ypg
19.3 ppg (which includes OT, defense, kick returns)
4.7 yards per play

percentage difference
vs top 10 teams, they're 16% better in yards per game, 23% better in points per game, 13% better in yards per play

This really makes no sense. Dungey is a good passer. Good passing should matter. But these three games were with Long and Mahoney. Long was a breath of fresh air against FSU but it still wasn't a great game. 16-27 for 167, 2 td and 2 int is fine for a freshman against FSU in his first game but it's not something you build a statue over.

if you just compare 2015 non top 10 vs 2014-15 top ten, it's about even (more YPG vs top 10, a hair less points due to defense and OT, and a hair fewer yards per play)

Our QB rating vs LSU 2015 , FSU 2014 and Clemson 2015 (top 10) is 99.

If your offense is better when your qb rating is worse, something is off.

More aggressive vs. top teams? Not sure how to quantify that though.

Not just on offense, but ST and D as well. I think we blitzed more vs. Clemson, or we were just more successful at it than the past few games.

 

[SU94]

I agree. We can look at Paterno/Penn State, fairly, right?

Seriously, you just don't know (and neither do I) just how good this Lester offensive system can be. If you don't like it, fine. I do like it enough for now, but am not married to it. He deserves/needs more time for us to make grand declarations. But you seem to be so certain that is is an abject failure. There is no doubt, however, that some of the signs are NOT positive.

But, can you admit that these factors render a bad cocktail: New OC with a new offense, a defensive-oriented ACC (best defensive conference in the nation), 3 starting quarterbacks in 10 games, savior true-frosh QB in and out of lineup, (very) young talent, sub-par WR talent (other than Ismael), poor OL play (huge problem, always seems to be), TE's that are short-range targets on a good day, decent talent at RB, and at least an instinct to take things slow tempo-wise as to not "expose" our defense.

I also happen to still think that the Carrier Dome, and even the new IPF, hinder our potential on offense during our 5-6 road games each year. But I have no hard proof on that front. The observation actually goes back to the early 90s. We struggle to throw the ball when playing outdoors. But I don't know how often we practice outdoors. I know we used to more often and still struggled.

Just do me a small favor, stop dividing by 3 and telling me you know the truth about anything.

 

[Millhouse]

I agree. We can look at Paterno/Penn State, fairly, right?

Seriously, you just don't know (and neither do I) just how good this Lester offensive system can be. If you don't like it, fine. I do like it enough for now, but am not married to it. He deserves/needs more time for us to make grand declarations. But you seem to be so certain that is is an abject failure. There is no doubt, however, that some of the signs are NOT positive.

But, can you admit that these factors render a bad cocktail: New OC with a new offense, a defensive-oriented ACC (best defensive conference in the nation), 3 starting quarterbacks in 10 games, savior true-frosh QB in and out of lineup, (very) young talent, sub-par WR talent (other than Ismael), poor OL play (huge problem, always seems to be), TE's that are short-range targets on a good day, decent talent at RB, and at least an instinct to take things slow tempo-wise as to not "expose" our defense.

I also happen to still think that the Carrier Dome, and even the new IPF, hinder our potential on offense during our 5-6 road games each year. But I have no hard proof on that front. The observation actually goes back to the early 90s. We struggle to throw the ball when playing outdoors. But I don't know how often we practice outdoors. I know we used to more often and still struggled.

Just do me a small favor, stop dividing by 3 and telling me you know the truth about anything.

all of those factors in your bad cocktail should also apply to the games against top 10 opponents

I guess we need to wait until we have a large sample of top 10 opponents to say anything about it. too bad we'll all be dead by then

 

[OrangeFoo]

A better question is how can we be only averaging ~300ypg in this day and age? That's sooooooooooo bad.

 

[texascpa]

We play to the level of our competition.

 

[Ottoble]

Against top 10 teams

Agreed it is strange, I think it is a sign of young age and inexperience that we have been talking about (last year due to injury, This year due to Injury & graduation). Players with more experience don't play up and down to competition as much as young teams, play better on the road (these top 10 games were all home games), and close out games with better more consistent execution. This year our Two deep contains (Per ESPN in this weeks game) 12 Frosh 12, Soph, 8 Jr, 8 SR, I don't know how red-shirts are accounted for in their graphic, they also stated Shafer tracks statistics and accounts for 70% of production from his underclassmen.

This year we have 3 games that hang in the balance over a total of 5 points (Pitt 3pts and 1pt for each of the overtime games), and two games against top 10 teams that hang in the balance over 10 points each.

 

[upperdeck]

if you cant get off the field you cant score. we only had the ball like twice in 20+ of the 2nd half. we seem to move the ball only 3-4 times a game and when we do its pretty quick often. the D has allowed long drives all year how many have we had?

 

[Millhouse]

if you cant get off the field you cant score. we only had the ball like twice in 20+ of the 2nd half. we seem to move the ball only 3-4 times a game and when we do its pretty quick often. the D has allowed long drives all year how many have we had?

i agree that we're terrible on defense. but why is the offense doing better against great teams?

 

[wfschrec]

i agree that we're terrible on defense. but why is the offense doing better against great teams?

Honestly I think we try too hard to "outcoach" opponents when we feel the talent is equal ... when we play in games we feel we can't win we are less conservative, take more chances and seem to have a plan that doesn't require a ton of overthinking ... I think we try too much trickery when the playing field is level and get too cute. Just run and throw the damn ball and don't think so much.

 

[TheCusian]

Honestly I think we try too hard to "outcoach" opponents when we feel the talent is equal ... when we play in games we feel we can't win we are less conservative, take more chances and seem to have a plan that doesn't require a ton of overthinking ... I think we try too much trickery when the playing field is level and get too cute. Just run and throw the damn ball and don't think so much.

Mahoney has less plays, we stick with what works until they stop it (Baylor-esque)

 

[sufandu]

With it only being a 3 game sample size the 412 yards against FSU last year probably pulls up the average quite a bit and FSU's defense last year wasn't all that good. Even so, it does seem like we should be averaging a lot more against the average and the scrub teams if we can be functional against defenses like LSU and Clemson.