SU #1 . . . over/under

[moqui]

Last time SU was ranked #1, they held the ranking for only one week.

Not counting the 1988-89 season, when they were pre-season #1 and were considered #1 just about since the end of the 87 title game, the longest run SU has had as #1 in the in-season AP Poll was 6 consecutive weeks in 1989-90.

With rare exceptions, you will drop out of first if you lose. So, here is who SU has to beat to keep the #1 ranking in the next few weeks:

2nd week - at NC State
3rd week - Bucknell, Tulane
4th week - Seton Hall, at DePaul
5th week - at Providence, Marquette
6th week - at Villanova, Providence
7th week - Pitt, at Notre Dame

let's put the over/under at 4 weeks

 

[Orangemen]

SU is favored in every game on that list.

With the defense playing as well as it has, those games should all be wins.

I think they will all be wins, but a loss is possible.

Getting the #1 ranking now is nice, because there is a good chance we'll keep it for a long time. These kinds of things have some momentum of their own. Stay #1 for a while, and your margin for error to get a #1 seed gets bigger.

That's what I'm hoping for here.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

SU is favored in every game on that list.

With the defense playing as well as it has, those games should all be wins.

I think they will all be wins, but a loss is possible.

Getting the #1 ranking now is nice, because there is a good chance we'll keep it for a long time. These kinds of things have some momentum of their own. Stay #1 for a while, and your margin for error to get a #1 seed gets bigger.

That's what I'm hoping for here.

Good call. We're well positioned. This is a good time to be taking over #1.

 

[EastCoast2]

If we get past Marq, I see us holding onto #1 for a while

 

[Knicks411]

We could definitely hold onto it for a while, particularly in the question boils down to "when do we lose next?"

Road games are always tough, so @Nova worries me a tad, even though they are in a down year. I feel like I'll need to see us beat Pitt before I believe we'll do it, so I will say our first loss is home to Pitt on 1/16.

 

[jordoo]

I see us making it to that Marquette game and I'm not that worried about Pitt this season so if we get past Marquette I think its a new record at number 1. I do wonder with that schedule if we get overtaken even if we win all of those game

 

[OttoMets]

Safe to say that if we hold it for the second week, we'll have it for at least three.

Seton Hall could be a tough game; the first game after Christmas tends to be a little sloppy. DePaul will probably be very motivated after last year's thrashing, and New Year's Day is another difficult time for a game, especially one that won't have any atmosphere.

Providence isn't very good, and I have faith that we'll beat Marquette - as bad a matchup as that is for us, we have enough guys who are smarting from the season-ender and want to make that count.

If pressed, I'd say we'd lose this Saturday. I think the three most likely candidates are Saturday, the 28th, and Pittsburgh. If we make it through that game, we've got the best start in school history and we'll have beaten Pittsburgh. That'd be remarkable.

 

[moqui]

We could definitely hold onto it for a while, particularly in the question boils down to "when do we lose next?"

Road games are always tough, so @Nova worries me a tad, even though they are in a down year. I feel like I'll need to see us beat Pitt before I believe we'll do it, so I will say our first loss is home to Pitt on 1/16.

what my little schedule breakdown didn't show is the time between each game. In particular, the dreaded Saturday/Monday turnarounds in Big East play; Syracuse has often played poorly on the Monday side of those turnarounds (although they have done much better in recent seasons). SU has three of them this year, the first is PC then Pitt on Jan. 14 and 16. Fortunately, they are both home games; unfortunately, the second one will be against the clutch-and-grabbers from PA. The next one is the following week, Notre Dame and then Cincy on the 21st and 23rd - those are both on the road; fortunately, this talented Cincy team is falling apart. The final one is the most difficult pairing on Feb. 11 and 13, UConn at home then on the road to Louisville.

 

[Rocco]

NEVER OVERLOOK Seton Hall. At least Jeremy Hazell is gone. couchburn

 

[Knicks411]

That last one is brutal. And not that is is a huge deal, but we also play the Wednesday prior to that against USF. (So basically 3 games in 6 days).

Getting away from the ranking stuff, since I've spilled enough virtual ink on it, and to something I would rather talk about, trying to win the regular season.

We've got Louisville and UConn 4 times in the final 6 games, as everyone probably knows. Those 2, plus Marquette, seem to be our biggest threats for the conference. Louisville is a team we have always struggled with. The thing is, our first 12 BE games are pretty manageable, at least for the BE. Our toughest road game, according to the Pom rankings, is Nova @60, and Cincy @62. In fact, we play 2 teams inside the Pom top 25 (Marquette and Gtown) as well as Pitt at 27, both at home, and then WVU, who is 32, once again also at home.

Now I'm not going to go crazy and say we're starting the BE season 12-0. It's possible, but I'm betting against it. But we play our 4 toughest games int he first 12 all at home. None of the road games look all that scary. The other 2 games in the last 6 are @ Rutgers and home USF.

So say we get to the first 12 games mark 10-2. Split the LVille and UConn games, win Rutgers and USF; that's 14-4. That's definitely a mark that could share the BE title. And if instead of 10-2 we're sitting at say, 11-1, then you bring 15-3 into play.

And for whatever it's worth, Ken Pom is projecting 15-3.

 

[Madbiker]

IF we can win at NC St we could hold the #1 spot at least until the Pitt game. Even though Pitt is down a little because they are young, it will be a very tough battle because we just have a stylistic problem with Pitt that won't change this year and probably will continue as long as Dixon is coach there. Seton Hall is playing very well and Pope is playing out of his mind...but I think we handle them. Marquette plays good D and they have the size and athleticism to hang with us. Dangerous game. But the time bomb is having to play UConn/LVille 4 times in our last 6 games to end the regular season. If we hit a funk there, so many losses in such a short concentrated time frame would really tank our ranking and NCAA seeding. Getting at least a split in those 4 games will be essential to getting a #1 or #2 seed in the NCAA.

 

[CorduroyG]

IF we can win at NC St we could hold the #1 spot at least until the Pitt game.

Thats kind of how i see it. If we beat NC State i think we'll be #1 for another month. So in my eyes the nc state game will decide whether we're #1 for a week or a month. I see that game as a toss up, not gonna be an easy win.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

NEVER OVERLOOK Seton Hall. At least Jeremy Hazell is gone. couchburn

Yeah, but Herb Pope (and his 25 rebounds a game vs. us) is still there.

He's got to be pushing 30 years old by now, guy's been there forever it seems.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Obvious choice is this Saturday, first real road game a team desperate for a marque win and Cuse enjoying a #1 ranking. I am not predicting a loss or anything but based on what we all know about the luck of Syracuse I fully expect some random bench player to go off for 20+ all beyond the arc and for this game to be a lot closer then it should be.

 

[SUSScuse]

That last one is brutal. And not that is is a huge deal, but we also play the Wednesday prior to that against USF. (So basically 3 games in 6 days).

Getting away from the ranking stuff, since I've spilled enough virtual ink on it, and to something I would rather talk about, trying to win the regular season.

We've got Louisville and UConn 4 times in the final 6 games, as everyone probably knows. Those 2, plus Marquette, seem to be our biggest threats for the conference. Louisville is a team we have always struggled with. The thing is, our first 12 BE games are pretty manageable, at least for the BE. Our toughest road game, according to the Pom rankings, is Nova @60, and Cincy @62. In fact, we play 2 teams inside the Pom top 25 (Marquette and Gtown) as well as Pitt at 27, both at home, and then WVU, who is 32, once again also at home.

Now I'm not going to go crazy and say we're starting the BE season 12-0. It's possible, but I'm betting against it. But we play our 4 toughest games int he first 12 all at home. None of the road games look all that scary. The other 2 games in the last 6 are @ Rutgers and home USF.

So say we get to the first 12 games mark 10-2. Split the LVille and UConn games, win Rutgers and USF; that's 14-4. That's definitely a mark that could share the BE title. And if instead of 10-2 we're sitting at say, 11-1, then you bring 15-3 into play.

And for whatever it's worth, Ken Pom is projecting 15-3.

I think we have beat Louisville once since they joined the Big East. They have been a thorn in our side for the longest stretch that I can remember.

 

[UnderHisOwnPower]

what my little schedule breakdown didn't show is the time between each game. In particular, the dreaded Saturday/Monday turnarounds in Big East play; Syracuse has often played poorly on the Monday side of those turnarounds (although they have done much better in recent seasons). SU has three of them this year, the first is PC then Pitt on Jan. 14 and 16. Fortunately, they are both home games; unfortunately, the second one will be against the clutch-and-grabbers from PA. The next one is the following week, Notre Dame and then Cincy on the 21st and 23rd - those are both on the road; fortunately, this talented Cincy team is falling apart. The final one is the most difficult pairing on Feb. 11 and 13, UConn at home then on the road to Louisville.

They might not lose until that Feb 11/13 turnaround weekend, but they could end up losing both of those for a little mid-season swoon to keep the critics happy.

 

[SouthCampusHero]

IF we can win at NC St we could hold the #1 spot at least until the Pitt game. Even though Pitt is down a little because they are young, it will be a very tough battle because we just have a stylistic problem with Pitt that won't change this year and probably will continue as long as Dixon is coach there. Seton Hall is playing very well and Pope is playing out of his mind...but I think we handle them. Marquette plays good D and they have the size and athleticism to hang with us. Dangerous game. But the time bomb is having to play UConn/LVille 4 times in our last 6 games to end the regular season. If we hit a funk there, so many losses in such a short concentrated time frame would really tank our ranking and NCAA seeding. Getting at least a split in those 4 games will be essential to getting a #1 or #2 seed in the NCAA.

Their starting center and only true big man is likely out for the season with an ACL injury. Their back-up is only 6'8 and cant seem to play more than 20 minutes a game due to poor conditioning. They have a very vulnerable interior, defensively. It will be interesting to see how they do against Vanderbilt with 6-11 Festus Ezeli back in their lineup.

 

[bnoro]

6 people think we're going to lose this saturday? I swear people on this board think being number 1 is a curse and the worst thing ever.

 

[BlackKnight76]

6 people think we're going to lose this saturday? I swear people on this board think being number 1 is a curse and the worst thing ever.

Too bad we lost our first game after being #1 in 2010. Oh wait, that didn't actually happen.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Being #1 is not a curse.

Making a #1 T-shirt is a curse.

 

[asj410]

Making a #1 T-shirt is a curse.

That reminded me of the '99-00 season when we went 19-0, then lost to Seton Hall, making those 20-0 shirts that were made ahead of time worthless.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Making a #1 T-shirt is a curse.

 

[cuseattle]

Courtesy of David Tyree.

 

[BlackKnight76]

Seven or more. Go big or go home.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Last time SU was ranked #1, they held the ranking for only one week.

Not counting the 1988-89 season, when they were pre-season #1 and were considered #1 just about since the end of the 87 title game, the longest run SU has had as #1 in the in-season AP Poll was 6 consecutive weeks in 1989-90.

With rare exceptions, you will drop out of first if you lose. So, here is who SU has to beat to keep the #1 ranking in the next few weeks:

2nd week - at NC State
3rd week - Bucknell, Tulane
4th week - Seton Hall, at DePaul
5th week - at Providence, Marquette
6th week - at Villanova, Providence
7th week - Pitt, at Notre Dame

let's put the over/under at 4 weeks

I think most look at Marquette at home as a revenge game. The people on ESPN think we're going down in that one, but I think we will win in a tough game. Then, you would suggest that at Nova would be the next game, especially coming off Marquette, but Villanova just hasn't looked that good this year. They're barely above .500. I wonder if Jay Wright is losing his team...

I think the game we go down is Pitt. I hate to say it, but they look like another typical Pitt team. They aren't fast but they're efficient on offense. They had excellent interior passing. They have a couple guys who can hit the 3 on kick outs against the zone. They rebound well and they're deep.

They looked like they could be pressed, but Woodall was out. This and UConn are the two teams that I would want to play a few minutes of man-to-man defense this year, if they started to get into a groove offensively against the zone. And I think we will press these teams this year, although UConn with 3 guards, it might make you pause..

So that makes my prediction 9 games as number 1 - and I hope they prove me wrong against Pitt. That would be to January 16.