SU -6 vs MTSU | Syracusefan.com

SU -6 vs MTSU

STEVEHOLT

STEVEHOLT

There are FIVE letters in the name BLAIN.
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Pretty much all the sports books have it as such. My guess is the line drops by at least 2 before game time.
 
Why they no respect MTSU? They looked much better than we did yesterday. I'm not hating on us at all, but ...

Addendum: Now that I've just read the General's post, I can understand the betting odds better.
 
Its just natural to assume they shot their proverbial wad and our zone is a bad matchup for them.
 
cusetown1 said:
I'm doing the ml. Shocked that Miami is a dog to Wichita st.
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Not surprised. Wichita as an 11 is ridiculous. Most metrics project them as a top ten team. I think they're better than Miami.
 
STEVEHOLT said:
Pretty much all the sports books have it as such. My guess is the line drops by at least 2 before game time.
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As I'm sure you know, the line does not necessarily reflect the relative strengths of the teams. It's the number that that will line up bettors on each side in relatively equal numbers, assuring the books their vig no matter who wins. MTSU is the current fan darling for knocking off MSU. I dare say 90% of those following the tournament and 99% of the "experts" want MTSU to knock off Syracuse. Some of these will bet with their heart rather than with their head. This will drive the line down. Cuse at -6 is a bargain.
 
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AccuRater said:
As I'm sure you know, the line does not necessarily reflect the relative strengths of the teams. It's the number that that will line up betters on each side in relatively equal numbers, assuring the books their vig no matter who wins. MTSU is the current fan darling for knocking off MSU. I dare say 90% of those following the tournament and 99% of the "experts" want MTSU to knock off Syracuse. At least some of these will bet with their heart rather than with their head. This will drive the line down. I'd say Cuse at -6 is a bargain.
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I'm putting a months worth of my gambling on this game. First time I've put money on a Cuse game in a long long time.
 
Wichita state is very good, and could easily win this game. But I think they are definitely over valued by the public right now. They are getting a lot of press for being under seeded, and they were, but I think there's been an over reaction to the under seeding.

They've rolled two team who really weren't very good. Another factor which is driving up everyone's opinion of them. And Miami is not exactly known as a bball school. There probably best known for missing the tourney or losing in the sweet 16 a few years back.

I wouldn't bet on this game, could go either way, but Miami is very good and under valued at this point.
 
bballbeadle said:
Why they no respect MTSU? They looked much better than we did yesterday. I'm not hating on us at all, but ...

Addendum: Now that I've just read the General's post, I can understand the betting odds better.
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I don't agree with this at all. Yes shooting wise they looked a lot better than us but our defense played a lot better than theres. They got destroyed down low defensively. They shot 56% from 3 and still MSU was in the game until the last minute. I doubt they shoot that way again and theit defense will let them down. They may have looked better than us offensively but defensively we looked like the better team.
 
MTSU has a KP rating of 106 this morning. It was probably closer to 120 yesterday before their game.

They had a great game yesterday, but they fit somewhere between NC St. and Wake Forest in terms of ACC comparables. You can't sleep on any of those games, but the 6 point line is reasonable.
 
Orangemen said:
Wichita state is very good, and could easily win this game. But I think they are definitely over valued by the public right now. They are getting a lot of press for being under seeded, and they were, but I think there's been an over reaction to the under seeding.

They've rolled two team who really weren't very good. Another factor which is driving up everyone's opinion of them. And Miami is not exactly known as a bball school. There probably best known for missing the tourney or losing in the sweet 16 a few years back.

I wouldn't bet on this game, could go either way, but Miami is very good and under valued at this point.
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#11 Wichita St (-2) - #3 Miami (KP #7 vs #14)
#11 Gonzaga (-1.5) - #3 Utah (KP #21 vs #29)
#14 Stephen Austin (pk) - #6 Notre Dame (KP #25 vs #40)

These odds have very little do with press from being lower seeds. A KP type model is typically used in setting lines. No different in any of these games.

It is surprising that these #11 and #14 seeds are pushing power conference schools on those seed lines. Perhaps they want to re-consider how they seed mid-majors (if they are selected in)
 
jncuse said:
#11 Wichita St (-2) - #3 Miami (KP #7 vs #14)
#11 Gonzaga (-1.5) - #3 Utah (KP #21 vs #29)
#14 Stephen Austin (pk) - #6 Notre Dame (KP #25 vs #40)

These odds have very little do with press from being lower seeds. A KP type model is typically used in setting lines. No different in any of these games.

It is surprising that these #11 and #14 seeds are pushing power conference schools on those seed lines. Perhaps they want to re-consider how they seed mid-majors (if they are selected in)
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God dang, I can't quit you jncuse
 
4.jpg
 
we are up to -6.5 on bovada.
 
STEVEHOLT said:
we are up to -6.5 on bovada.
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Same on betonline. We started at -6.5 and slid to -6. I'm not sure if MTSU is the darling folks say or if it matters enough. I think the Cuse name factors into the setting, when they consider the bettors who tend to get influenced by names.

Question for everyone:
If a certain segment of non-regular bettors were unbiased fans who hadn't studied either team but watched both games back to back yesterday, what kind of line do you think they'd set based soley on their experience with those 2 games?

Question for hardened gamblers:
Is there any bias over the total number of national bets when it comes to favorites vs underdogs?
 
jncuse said:
MTSU has a KP rating of 106 this morning. It was probably closer to 120 yesterday before their game.

They had a great game yesterday, but they fit somewhere between NC St. and Wake Forest in terms of ACC comparables. You can't sleep on any of those games, but the 6 point line is reasonable.
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They were 150! 200th on offense.
 
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