SU football Preview: Storylines for 2012

[billsin01]

So time for a long, rambling preview of the upcoming seasons in a trends-to-watch/storyline format (plus any other formats I decide to branch off into as I'm typing this):

Individual stories

Welcome back, Marcus Sales
Sales has had one of the more interesting careers I can remember for a cuse football player. He's basically been productive since he set foot on the field -- had a TD vs. Penn State and two plays of 25+ as frosh in a miserable offense; then spent two years as a player Marrone desperately wanted not to play (perhaps for good reason) but still managed to catch 54 passes and score 7 TDs in those two seasons -- decent numbers in a challenged offense and with limited PT. Then he gets kicked off in what seemed like a fitting way to end his career. But then, in a weird twist, DM takes him back for a fifth season. So what do we get? The guy who has trouble getting on the field for whatever reason or the guy who averaged ~5 catches, for ~90 yards the last four games we saw him play? Hopefully the latter, obviously. My guess: Sales proves he's the best receiver on this team and catches 50+ balls this season.

Is Ryan Nassib the best terrible QB ever or a terrible QB who's numbers will reflect his suckitude this season?
Nassib's legacy is an interesting one. If this team surprises, goes out and wins, let's say, 7+ games and the offense improves, it will be hard not to give Nassib credit for at least being decent. If things are a disaster, there will likely be a majority here who will remain convinced that he is no better (or worse) than the dynamic Nunes/Anderson duo. My guess: I think Nassib is exactly what he is -- a decent QB with a good head on his shoulders who tends to avoid huge mistakes and has a bit more mobility than he's given credit for. What he won't do is use sheer talent to overcome a pedestrian system and OK-to-below-average surrounding talent to make this offense consistently productive more or less on his own. So, while this is probably a cop out, I see him improving his numbers a bit, hitting on a couple deep balls, and generally putting up solid numbers in an offense that remains inconsistent at best allowing us to continue heatedly debating his competence/suckitude.

Who and what is Ashton Broyld?
QB? WR? RB? All three? I guess regardless, the kid will be on the field and hopefully add some excitement. My guess: He provides a big play or two but ends up being faaaaaaarrrrr less important in the grand scheme of things than many are convinced he is (at least as a frosh).

Bigger picture stories

Youth movement
Interesting infusion of young, but somewhat experienced talent on the field -- Jerome Smith, PTG at RB, true frosh and/or Wales at TE, guys like Hickey/Curtis/Foy, etc. on the OL, Broyld, Eskridge/Desir/Reddish at DB, Davis/Lynch/Vigille at LB, MPB at DE, and others. Is this the year we finally find ourselves excited by some of the talent on this roster and see some of these kids start to break through as legit talents? My guess: I can't believe I'm saying this b/c I'm generally realistic/pessimistic about the reports on a lot of these kids, but I think we're going to see some kids break through and actually be excited about the combination of overall talent, experience and, to a lesser extent, depth of the 2013 for the first time in a long, long, long time. Particularly when we add in some of the true frosh and the commits we have lined up. How does that translate to wins? That I'm less sure of, which brings us to the next storyline ...

Natural growing pains or disturbing trend?
I like Marrone. I really do. I'm not sure I get why so many people on here think he's a great speaker, I don't really get that from him. I think his media relationships/schmoozing tolerance are troubling. I question his in-game decision making. But I really think he's got this program stabilized and heading in the right direction (especially in terms of recruiting -- judging by appearances -- which many had questioned until very recently). Outside of late-game/late-half decision-making I'm not sure any of the aforementioned concerns I have actually matter that much. But, the one nagging thing that I think concerns me is the aspects of this team that haven't seemed to take steps forward in three years. OL play has yet to reach the adjective of average. Same goes for overall offensive production. Specials, well, they've been unspeakably bad. So the question always is talent vs. system. At the end of the day, I think this is the year where we finally begin to see the answers to that debate. More craptastic offense and specials and OL play for 12 games -- or 10 of 12 games, etc. -- warms the seat on DM, IMO. And would set up a Year 5 in which he was trying to prove himself as an offensive mind and Hackett as an OC while simultaneously stepping up in competition level. Yikes. My guess: Specials are better (could they be worse?) but the OL and offense are the same we've seen prompting pressure on DM in the off-season to hire a new OC. Would it truly be Hackett's fault? Don't know but I don't see DM going anywhere and I'm not sure they could justify Hackett remaining unscathed.

Can I get back to worshiping Shafer again?
I absolutely unabashedly loved Shafer's first two defenses and really thought they held it together moderately well given the massive personnel overhaul last season. I really like the young talent over there and just hope we can see some more pressure from the DEs to compliment what I think will be good play from the DTs and improved play from the back 7. My guess: We perform pretty well defensively, though we're still searching for a bit more consistent pressure from our DEs. Overall we're pretty excited about this group by the end of the year and headed into '13.

Top breakout candidates:
1) Lyn -- goes from good prospect to elite CB in Big EAst
2) Sales -- lives up to his potential catches ~10 TDs
3) Bromley -- big things from the big man
4) Dy Davis -- I think a little more weight/experience makes him an animal
5) PTG -- I've bet on him for 2 years, I'm not stopping now

 

[GoSU96]

Is Ryan Nassib the best terrible QB ever or a terrible QB who's numbers will reflect his suckitude this season?
Nassib's legacy is an interesting one. If this team surprises, goes out and wins, let's say, 7+ games and the offense improves, it will be hard not to give Nassib credit for at least being decent. If things are a disaster, there will likely be a majority here who will remain convinced that he is no better (or worse) than the dynamic Nunes/Anderson duo. My guess: I think Nassib is exactly what he is -- a decent QB with a good head on his shoulders who tends to avoid huge mistakes and has a bit more mobility than he's given credit for. What he won't do is use sheer talent to overcome a pedestrian system and OK-to-below-average surrounding talent to make this offense consistently productive more or less on his own. So, while this is probably a cop out, I see him improving his numbers a bit, hitting on a couple deep balls, and generally putting up solid numbers in an offense that remains inconsistent at best allowing us to continue heatedly debating his competence/suckitude.

Little known fact Nassib is 13-12 as a starter. My guess is that we will see enough improvement that he will be in the top 30 in most categories this year.

 

[SUinNYC]

Great post. Thanks. I'm expecting a big year from Jerome Smith at RB and I think our offense will be noticeably improved.

 

[billsin01]

Little known fact Nassib is 13-12 as a starter. My guess is that we will see enough improvement that he will be in the top 30 in most categories this year.

Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked by the latter point and I think he's done a decent job putting up the record he has. My point was more that I don't think you're ever going to watch him and compare him to Joe Montana or Michael Vick or whomever. And that fact alone will be enough to convince many here that believe the next montana or vick or mcnabb or whomever is actually on the roster and "wasting away" on the bench.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

One of the mini stories I'm looking forward to is Lemon's race to be #1 in all-time receptions.

 

[GoSU96]

Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked by the latter point and I think he's done a decent job putting up the record he has. My point was more that I don't think you're ever going to watch him and compare him to Joe Montana or Michael Vick or whomever. And that fact alone will be enough to convince many here that believe the next montana or vick or mcnabb or whomever is actually on the roster and "wasting away" on the bench.

Understand. He will be best in a distributor mode, and to do that you need multiple weapons. He wasn't helped last year by the problems with the running game and lack of explosive WR's who could beat press coverage.

Not sure there is anyone on the roster who can consistently make teams pay for pressing yet, but the running game should be improved, and that should help.

 

[billsin01]

Great post. Thanks. I'm expecting a big year from Jerome Smith at RB and I think our offense will be noticeably improved.

Yeah, wouldn't be surprised to see Smith emerge as a really nice player. Could easily add several more guys to the list of potential breakouts -- I didn't touch the OL, Cam Lynch is certainly a possibility, Reddish, etc. I have a feeling we're going to like a lot of the talent coming back in '13 on this team. Not that we're "there" yet, but I think we'll feel much better about our direction personnel-wise.

 

[kcsu]

I hope that Doug plays to win more than to stay in games. The team needs to know that he has confidence in them. Im not saying throw caution to the win but go ahead big boy fry that bologne once in a while. Toss a lemon on top of the pepsi, let Rene try to return a few this year, Pass on first down inside of our own 50 ok maybe that can wait another five years or so but for gosh sake Doug have some fun and let the kids know that you enjoy the game and believe that they can win.

 

[SoBristol]

Two thumbs up for that rambling preview.
Who or what is Ashton Broyld? Not a true frosh, as he has a PG year and the experience in the Spring. Fully grown at 6ft 3 and 230, versatile, decent speed and tough to stop. Along with Gulley, will provide Nassib with a third down weapon as a slot back when we don't use a blocking FB. Get him the ball on counters, pitches and swing passes. Couple of receptions a game; 4 or 5 carries a game.
Can Hackett adda dimension to the base offense? We haven't had a player quite like Ashton (maybe Aaron Weaver, if he had stayed healthy); up to Hackett to find ways to use Ashton to supplement runs by Jerome Smith and slants to Lemon & Sales. Same idea with Gulley -- too good to sit behind Smith. So, there is the Bailey role as you mentioned above.

Youth movement -- I wouldn't predict that any one or two of these prospects breaks out as our new Joe Morris or Dan Conley, as an individual star. The point is more that we can use numbers and depth for a change. Shafer plays a lot of guys in his schemes, so having Sloan & Jones & an extra DE will make a big difference. Maybe Marrone/Hackett get a clue and do the same on offense -- rather than relying so much on one RB. With better numbers at LB, DB, TE and a couple of spare backs and WRs, special teams have more to work with.

November -- not Marrone's best month in his tenure at SU. Expect better this season due to the youth movement and depth. Helps so much to have a spare OL or two; more size at DT; a couple of LBs who can sub in; 6 or 7 DBs who aren't true stars but good enough to step in so we don't have guys playing through injuries as Lyn and Anderson did last season; a chance for a RB rotation with Gulley, Broyld and AAM getting carries; talented young TEs like Parris and Thompson who should be contributing in November.

I expect a slow start to the season, but a little more success once the Big East games start.

 

[billsin01]

November -- not Marrone's best month in his tenure at SU. Expect better this season due to the youth movement and depth. Helps so much to have a spare OL or two; more size at DT; a couple of LBs who can sub in; 6 or 7 DBs who aren't true stars but good enough to step in so we don't have guys playing through injuries as Lyn and Anderson did last season; a chance for a RB rotation with Gulley, Broyld and AAM getting carries; talented young TEs like Parris and Thompson who should be contributing in November.

I expect a slow start to the season, but a little more success once the Big East games start.

November is indeed another interesting theme to watch. Wish I had thought of that. You'd have to think depth would help here but it's hard to really know. Either way, we have to be better prepared for games later in the season. Being healthier would help, depth would help but perhaps there are other factors as well.

 

[SoBristol]

November is indeed another interesting theme to watch. Wish I had thought of that. You'd have to think depth would help here but it's hard to really know. Either way, we have to be better prepared for games later in the season. Being healthier would help, depth would help but perhaps there are other factors as well.

So, depth has to help.

Other factors -- well, I will remember that GROB, with all his warts, was talking positive in late season 2008. Always -- we are getting better and it will soon show. And, the team put on its best performance (in a horrible year, 3 and 8) in November, at Notre Dame, with Bailey subbing in and getting around 120 yd rushing. It didn't hurt that GROB kept that positive attitude, despite knowing he was about to get the boot.

In November, Doug has sometimes let negatives get in his way. We don't have enough kids to practice; this kid is banged up; this didn't go right. He could say -- in November, we don't need contact drills anyway; our frosh and sophs are now ready to step up and here is their opportunity. He could add some spice and excitement to the offense; and in fact, he did that in his first year.