SU opens -13.5 over DePaul...

[690West]

Couple points less than Seton Hall

 

[orangenauburn]

We wont cover

We win by 8

 

[cusetown1]

We wont cover

We win by 8

+15

 

[Cusefannotindc]

My model says SU is 74% to cover. But as a rule I don't bet on SU games.

 

[690West]

My model says SU is 74% to cover. But as a rule I don't bet on SU games.

I'm watching you closely, CFNIDC, and so far I like what I'm seeing

 

[Cusefannotindc]

I'm watching you closely, CFNIDC, and so far I like what I'm seeing

Haha, thanks. If you are looking for a good bet, I would say Northwestern at -6.5, my model says 65% to cover., Michigan at -6.5, my model says they are only 39% to cover. But then again I bet on Wisconsin today.

 

[slidingdown]

My model says SU is 74% to cover. But as a rule I don't bet on SU games.

You have a model who's an SU fan? You are one lucky man. I don't care if she can cook or clean, don't ever let her go.

 

[DallasCuse]

My model says SU is 74% to cover. But as a rule I don't bet on SU games.

I've used betting models/trends for years. They are amazing, using them, you can be right nearly half the time.

 

[SkanSU]

I have SU -14 opening against Depaul in Chicago

I've used betting models/trends for years. They are amazing, using them, you can be right nearly half the time.

Something like those horseracing models and "computers"... they'll pick the favorites every time so you win 1/3 of the races ... at a bad bet. But if you have a model that covers 1/2 the time that really isn't bad. ... as long as its across all games. I want the model that Vegas uses... they are really good at the point spread.

 

[upperdeck]

the part of the model that vegas has that "WE" dont is the money side. given a long enough date range you could probably start to approx where the money is flowing and compute where the holes are between the real line and the money line.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

I've used betting models/trends for years. They are amazing, using them, you can be right nearly half the time.

Mine is still in development, it is informational purposes for anyone who cares. However yesterday, of games the model scored over 52%, they model predicted to cover 59% of those games, it covered 60%.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

the part of the model that vegas has that "WE" dont is the money side. given a long enough date range you could probably start to approx where the money is flowing and compute where the holes are between the real line and the money line.

Without going into too much detail, my model compares predictions from Pomeroy and Sagarin to the spread, looks at how teams have done in the past with similar predictions and home/away status.

 

[osullfam]

Interesting Mike Water's article where he answers a guy who asks how point spreads are established. Interviewed the guy who establishes it for AP and has done so for a number of casino's.
It is strictly the spread that gets 1/2 the money betting one way and half the other. He used an example if Alabama played the Citadel in football, it might take a 70 point spread to entice Citadel money. Kind of ties in with the conventional wisdom that betting against ND football will make you money in the long run. A lot of Irish Catholic money betting ND, solely because they're ND.

 

[cpatrocks]

that line seems way low to me --- I was thinking -20. I bet it, but the line moved up to -14 for me. GO SU!