SU opens -15.5 over Princeton...

[690West]

Princeton down this year? I haven't checked

 

[SkanSU]

That's generous Almost begging me to take Princeton and the points . But seriously you can almost expect a low scoring game.

 

[cpatrocks]

I'm all over SU on this one - spread seems really low to me.

 

[690West]

I'm all over SU on this one - spread seems really low to me.

Yeah. I think I have to agree

 

[igor]

of course. how else can u have 1245 wins

just funning

 

['72 Orange]

Well PU did lose to Rutgers. Nuff said!!

 

[weedsportwarriors]

I would take that. SU will win by 25, unless it gets closer when the walk-ons come in.

 

[Knicks411]

Someone before asked how the pomeroy projections compare to Vegas. Pomeroy has this one as SU -14.

Also, I have to LOL, re: Pomeroy. Wisconsin jumped from 9 to 4 because they absolutely rolled Presbyterian last night. (88-43 in a 62 possession game. Presbyterian is ranked 324th in the rankings). They've become amazing at killing really bad teams the last year plus; definitely inflates the rating.

 

[Marsh01]

Princeton down this year? I haven't checked

I'd give those points and take the cuse.

 

[690West]

Down to -14 at a couple places

 

[AlaskaSU]

Princeton has good height but not much scoring punch.

 

[cusetown1]

Cuse by 22

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

Easy cover for the Cuse tonight

 

[Orangezoo]

This might be a good game for Dajuan to get comfortable. Princeton plays more by the book - I would presume they will be less inclined to slap and hack and play us more straight up. Honestly I think any team that doesn't push the tempo or play pressure D is going to be hard pressed to beat us this year. Princeton being a half court team should make for an easy win. Im guessing its close or we even trail at the 13 minute mark and then we open it up and are at the spread by the half.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

So as I have been collecting data to retool my betting model from last year I have been looking at line movements. In the 2009-2010 season, when the line dropped, favorites were more likely to cover the final line than the original line. In the case the line dropping 1.5 points like we are talking about here, the favorites covered the original line 42% of the time, but covered the final line 48% of the time. However when the line increased, the favorites became less likely to cover the final line.

Not to say you should draw any hard and fast conclusions from this because it is just one year's data.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Someone before asked how the pomeroy projections compare to Vegas. Pomeroy has this one as SU -14.

Also, I have to LOL, re: Pomeroy. Wisconsin jumped from 9 to 4 because they absolutely rolled Presbyterian last night. (88-43 in a 62 possession game. Presbyterian is ranked 324th in the rankings). They've become amazing at killing really bad teams the last year plus; definitely inflates the rating.

At this point I am wondering if there is a bug in his coding that is causing Wisconsin to be misranked.

 

[Meatball56]

Grabbed it at -16 when it opened last night.

Doubled up at -14 mid afternoon.

Now it's down t0 -13.5. People really betting on the Princeton perception, I don't get it.

 

[PoppyHart]

So as I have been collecting data to retool my betting model from last year I have been looking at line movements. In the 2009-2010 season, when the line dropped, favorites were more likely to cover the final line than the original line. In the case the line dropping 1.5 points like we are talking about here, the favorites covered the original line 42% of the time, but covered the final line 48% of the time. However when the line increased, the favorites became less likely to cover the final line.

Not to say you should draw any hard and fast conclusions from this because it is just one year's data.

Isn't that always the case?

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Isn't that always the case?

I have only checked one year so far. I don't see a particular reason to expect bettors to increase accuracy in one direction but decrease it in the other.