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[QUOTE="Cusefan95, post: 4811028, member: 173"]
Our values to get to a projected spread are:
Predictor - 69.07
Golden    - 68.58
Recent     - 67.62

The numbers you cited are what our ranking is in that metric - so we are 5 spots lower in RECENT that in PREDICTOR, about 1.5 pts less in Recent than in Predictor.  And we were (I think) 55 prior to the VT game - VT didn't gain much but we dropped like a rock.  Which is what I was saying -  we shed 8 points of value since our 4-0 start.  At 4-0 we were in the low 30s, now we're in the 70s.  I would have expected shedding that much value would be a challenge to borderline impossible - yet here we are.  So I'd agree that the recent weighing is probably slight - but overall our value drop has been enormous.

More important for the spread on BC - anyone shocked we would be favored is putting all their stock into the Florida State loss.  Other than that, they LOST to Northern Illinois, barely beat Holy Cross, got their doors blown off by Louisville, barely beat Virginia, UConn, and Army - and beat Georgia Tech by 2 TDs.  They are hot garbage that had one outlier game where they looked competent.  Beating four other hot garbage teams heading into our matchup doesn't mean much - and it would mean absolutely nothing if we were not also hot garbage.

This is why I think betting on a game a team you root for is in is a terrible idea - you KNOW your team is a dumpster fire, but don't appreciate that the flames are billowing out of the other team's dumpster just as high.
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