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[QUOTE="Cusefan95, post: 4811475, member: 173"]
I’m not saying we’ve had one bad loss.  I’m saying metrics which bias towards recent results have to temper that somewhat to account for the potential a loss was a bad loss.  I’d noted after the FSU loss that we dropped about 5 points in value in Predictor (which helped that catch up to Recent) - we’ve shed value at a rate which is unreal if you’ve watched it through the year.

And as I’ve mentioned but you chose to ignore - if we played BC a month ago - we would have been a double digit favorite.  That’s even at BCs value now, which is certainly higher than a month ago.

We’ve lost eight points in the last month in Sagarin Predictor.  Think about that.  Eight points.  That’s enormous.  Almost unfathomable.  And that’s still inadequate in your mind, it should have been closer to 14.  That would put us around the 100th ranked team in college football, behind a 3-5 Utah State team.

Look, I get that we’re terrible.  And we might lose on Friday.  But your expectations around the spread are extremely uninformed and are likely guided mostly by your emotions.  If you think BC is a good bet, go for it.

But I’ll argue all day that if you think we should be ranked 100th behind Utah State, you are nuts.  Which is where we’d need to be to make your spread suggestion for - because BC is ALSO hot garbage.
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