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[QUOTE="GoSU96, post: 390575, member: 114"]
SU on offense is 44 for 79 (56%) getting 1st downs when it is 3rd and less than 10.   When it is third and 10 or more they are 3 for 31 (10%).   Shows you how important it is for them to avoid negative plays.   USF's defense allows 1st downs 47% of the time when it is 3rd and six or less.  They allow first downs 28% when it is 3rd and 7 or more, which is okay, but not great.
 
USF, when it is third and less than three, they have a 68% success rate, and 8 times of 10 run the ball in that situation.  They are still pretty good at medium situations, 4 to 6 yds at 47%, but then they fall off the table.  When they are 3rd and 7 or more they are only 13 of 45 (29%).   They really need to be in short yardage to keep moving the ball.      SU's defense also allows first downs 47% of the time when it is third and six or less.  Where it locks down is 3rd and long.   On third and 7 or more they have allowed a first down only 8 times in 49 attempts (16%).
 
If this holds SU has the advantage on both sides of the ball in this important area.   SU will be in trouble if USF can consistently get 5 or 6 yards on first down running the ball.    If SU can contain the run, limit those favorable down and distances, and make Daniels move the ball with his arm, they should be in good shape.
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