Hey guys, I'm pretty much a lurker here but I'm a SU fan and I just created a website that hasn't quite gotten the response I was hoping for. Nevertheless, I think that you would all find it useful for the discussion of where Syracuse ranks as a program among the nation's elite teams. The idea of the website is to figure out the average amount of wins that every different seed is worth in the NCAA tournament, going back to when they first started the 64-team format in 1985. You take those results and add them up for individual teams and you can see two things;
1) Which teams have been placed in the greatest position to succeed based upon seeding (team prestige)
2) By comparing that number with actual team performance you can get a good grasp of which teams have over-performed and under-performed. This one is called Per Tournament Difference, and it's figured out pretty easily by doing [Actual Wins - Expected Wins] / [Tournament Appearances]
Syracuse scores out really well for the first category, coming in 6th out of all 351 Division 1 teams trailing only Duke, Kansas, UNC, Kentucky, and Arizona. The teams immediately behind Syracuse on this list are Uconn, Michigan State, Oklahoma and UCLA. Syracuse's position on this list is safe this year regardless of the tournament ban because every team that trails them is farther away than what can be accomplished in a single tournament, but they are going to lose some ground on the teams in front of them.
In the second category, Syracuse still scores out well as they average +.1117 more wins per tournament than they would have been expected to, and rankings wise this places them as the *ahem* 44th best Division 1 team out of 135 that qualified to be ranked (Pittsburgh came in at 131st, Notre Dame and 129th).
Lastly, when you combine all of the teams in a conference, the expected wins for the ACC is substantially higher than the next best conference. This is in part due to the stat being a measure of current teams within a conference rather than the conference's history specifically, so the recent re-alignment and large amount of conference members play a part in boosting the number. The ACC as a conference has 351.775 expected wins from it's members, and #2 on the list in the Big Ten which has 268.7583 expected wins from it's members. For Per Tournament Difference, the ACC comes in 11th out of 33 conferences as they slightly over performed with a +.0138.
If you're interested in looking into more of the site you can look here, I think that there's some really great stuff on it and plan to update it to make it more aesthetically pleasing in the upcoming month. The upcoming NCAA tournament will change around the numbers for Expected Wins a bit, but it's nice to have a reminder that even after a down year like we just had Syracuse will still score out well among the nation's elite schools and will survive from not making one NCAA tournament.
1) Which teams have been placed in the greatest position to succeed based upon seeding (team prestige)
2) By comparing that number with actual team performance you can get a good grasp of which teams have over-performed and under-performed. This one is called Per Tournament Difference, and it's figured out pretty easily by doing [Actual Wins - Expected Wins] / [Tournament Appearances]
Syracuse scores out really well for the first category, coming in 6th out of all 351 Division 1 teams trailing only Duke, Kansas, UNC, Kentucky, and Arizona. The teams immediately behind Syracuse on this list are Uconn, Michigan State, Oklahoma and UCLA. Syracuse's position on this list is safe this year regardless of the tournament ban because every team that trails them is farther away than what can be accomplished in a single tournament, but they are going to lose some ground on the teams in front of them.
In the second category, Syracuse still scores out well as they average +.1117 more wins per tournament than they would have been expected to, and rankings wise this places them as the *ahem* 44th best Division 1 team out of 135 that qualified to be ranked (Pittsburgh came in at 131st, Notre Dame and 129th).
Lastly, when you combine all of the teams in a conference, the expected wins for the ACC is substantially higher than the next best conference. This is in part due to the stat being a measure of current teams within a conference rather than the conference's history specifically, so the recent re-alignment and large amount of conference members play a part in boosting the number. The ACC as a conference has 351.775 expected wins from it's members, and #2 on the list in the Big Ten which has 268.7583 expected wins from it's members. For Per Tournament Difference, the ACC comes in 11th out of 33 conferences as they slightly over performed with a +.0138.
If you're interested in looking into more of the site you can look here, I think that there's some really great stuff on it and plan to update it to make it more aesthetically pleasing in the upcoming month. The upcoming NCAA tournament will change around the numbers for Expected Wins a bit, but it's nice to have a reminder that even after a down year like we just had Syracuse will still score out well among the nation's elite schools and will survive from not making one NCAA tournament.