Tale of the Tape - Clemson vs. Syracuse

[suloyalfan]

I know that Vegas thinks says Clemson is at least a 14 point favorite, and I'm not saying that these teams are even up talent wise, but here is a look at key statistics...

Against FBS competition ONLY (6 games each, with 2 common opponents so far), the "Tale of the Tape" is as follows:

Scoring Offense - Clemson #66 (28.2 ppg), Syracuse #101 (21.8 ppg)
Total Offense - Clemson #74 (391 ypg), Syracuse #52 (420.7 ypg)

Scoring Defense - Clemson #30 (22.2 ppg), Syracuse #42 (23.5 ppg)
Total Defense - Clemson #14 (322.5 ypg), Syracuse #33 (352.5 ypg)

Rushing Offense: Clemson #109 (115.33 ypg/41 apg/8 TD), Syracuse #37 (201.33 ypg/37.33 apg/7 TD)
Rushing Defense: Clemson #21 (119.33 ypg/35 apg/9 TD), Syracuse #18 (116.33 ypg/36 apg/5 TD)

Passing Offense: Clemson #34 (275.7 ypg/36.5 apg/9 TD/4 INT), Syracuse #81 (219.3 ypg/3.5 apg/3 TD/7 INT)
Passing Defense: Clemson #25 (203.2 ypg/30.5 apg/8 TD/3 INT), Syracuse #65 (235.8 ypg/30 apg/11 TD/4 INT )

Tackles For Loss: Clemson #3 (8.67 tflpg), Syracuse #50 (6.33 tflpg)

Interceptions (Defense): Clemson #100 (0.5 ipg, 3 total on 183 attempts), Syracuse #85 (0.67 ipg, 4 total on 180 attempts)

Sacks: Clemson #8 (3.5 spg, 21 total), Syracuse #31 (2.67 spg, 16 total)

Sacks Allowed: Clemson #85 (2.5 spg, 15 total), Syracuse #9 (0.83 spg, 5 total)

Penalties - Clemson #13 (4.3 ppg/38.3 ypg), Syracuse #91 (7.8 ppg/64.8 ypg)

Turnover Margin - Clemson #23 (0.67 with 9 takeaways, 5 giveaways), Syracuse #17 (0.83 with 13 takeaways, 8 giveaways)

3rd Down Conversions (Offense) - Clemson #53 (41.44%), Syracuse #74 (38.71%)
3rd Down Conversions (Defense) - Clemson #3 (25.27), Syracuse #59 (39.24%)

Red Zone Score % (Offense) - Clemson #123 (65% in 20 chances), Syracuse #99 (78.26% in 23 chances)
Red Zone TD% (Offense) - Clemson #121 (40.0% in 20 chances), Syracuse #124 (34.78% in 23 chances)
Red Zone FG% (Offense) - Clemson #54 (25% in 20 chances), Syracuse #3 (43.48% in 23 chances)

Red Zone Score % (Defense) - Clemson #5 (66.67% in 15 chances), Syracuse #95 (88.24% in 17 chances)
Red Zone TD% (Defense) - Clemson #56 (60% in 15 chances), Syracuse #78 (64.71% in 17 chances)
Red Zone FG% (Defense) - Clemson #4 (6.67% in 15 chances), Syracuse #67 (23.53% in 17 chances)

Punt Returns (Offense) - Clemson #64 (7.5 ypr, 1 TD), Syracuse #50 (8.55 ypr, 0 TD)
Kickoff Returns (Offense) - Clemson #119 (17.78 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #126 (16.78 ypr, 0 TD)

Punt Returns (Defense) - Clemson #60 (7.47 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #84 (10.1 ypr, 0 TD)
Kickoff Returns (Defense) - Clemson #120 (25.6 ypr, 1 TD), Syracuse #30 (18.94 ypr, 0 TD)

Field Goals - Clemson #76 (69.2%), Syracuse #59 (73.3%)

Punting - Clemson #37 (43.02 ypp), Syracuse #71 (41.47 ypp)

Overall, special teams and turnovers look fairly equal. Penalties is an advantage for Clemson, and given the environment will probably be even more magnified. Both teams are awful in the red zone, and Clemson's offense puts more points on the board, but Syracuse actually racks up more yards. Clemson's offense should also be hampered more than they were earlier in the season due to injuries, but the same could be said of Syracuse. On paper, the biggest difference between Clemson's defense and Syracuse's defense is it's performance on 3rd down (they get off the field). They also have an excellent red zone defense, which also keeps points off the board (which explains the better scoring defense). As far as turnovers forced, sacks, tackles for loss, total defense, and scoring defense, statistically there isn't much difference in the defenses against FBS competition. Again, this is not to say they aren't extremely talented in the front 7, but at least statistically against FBS competition there isn't a huge difference.

In summary, in my opinion, this game will come down to 3rd down efficiency (need at least 40%), red zone efficiency (TDs instead of FGs), and penalties. Those 3 categories stick out the most. Statistically I think there will be 1-2 turnovers for each team, 2-3 sacks per team, and 6-7 tackles for loss per team. Both teams are solid stopping the run, and while Clemson has a better pass defense. Syracuse runs the ball well, and Clemson does not. Clemson's field goal kicker is slightly worse than the Syracuse kicker, so if this game comes down to FG's, it could be interesting. Clemson's pass offense is decent, but it was better much more potent with Deshaun Watson at the helm. As much as we malign our pass defense, it's actually average this year (#65 - 235.8 ypg/1.8 tdpg/0.7 intpg), but a little better than last year (#80 - 245.9 ypg/33.8 apg/1.8 tdpg/1.1 intpg) and Clemson loss Tahj Boyd/Sammy Watkins/Martavis Bryant among others off that potent offense from last year.

 

[OrangeMojo]

great post - but title left me disappointed when I opened it up and didn't see an old school KingOtto style Tale of the Tape.

 

[suloyalfan]

great post - but title left me disappointed when I opened it up and didn't see an old school KingOtto style Tale of the Tape.

Sorry... I didn't dig into THOSE details! Maybe next time...

 

[CuseCactus]

I also miss the TOT. Especially now that we are in a new conference - would really stir things up with rivals.

 

[CUTater]

You might as well only count our games against UGA, BC, and Louisville. It's a totally different team without Watson at QB.

 

[Alsacs]

Damn, for a second I thought KOIII was back. Good job though your post was informative and took some time to prepare. Thank you for that.

 

[Upstate]

Gotta say, only one thing is off. didn't SU give up at punt TD to Nova?

 

[suloyalfan]

Gotta say, only one thing is off. didn't SU give up at punt TD to Nova?

Numbers are for FBS competition only... though I'm convinced Villanova would probably beat 30-40% of the FBS teams on any given Saturday.

 

[suloyalfan]

You might as well only count our games against UGA, BC, and Louisville. It's a totally different team without Watson at QB.

Could be... but injuries do happen and the numbers are still is just averages for the season. For example, Florida State's offense in the Clemson game would have been better with Jameis Winston too. Syracuse didn't get that luxury when they played against Florida State. I did count just FBS games to compare only "peer" teams (though Villanova was no push over for Syracuse).

 

[Orangejet]

Great post and do this moving forward for all games...

 

[suloyalfan]

Great post and do this moving forward for all games...

Will do... shouldn't be a problem!

 

[Lawrinson14]

Damn, for a second I thought KOIII was back. Good job though your post was informative and took some time to prepare. Thank you for that.

What were the KOIII posts?

 

[Alsacs]

What were the KOIII posts?

KOIII would do these type of posts each week.
Link

 

[CUTater]

Could be... but injuries do happen and the numbers are still is just averages for the season. For example, Florida State's offense in the Clemson game would have been better with Jameis Winston too. Syracuse didn't get that luxury when they played against Florida State. I did count just FBS games to compare only "peer" teams (though Villanova was no push over for Syracuse).

I'm telling you this because I assume you want an accurate picture of what to expect. Our offense is worse than those averages.

 

[suloyalfan]

I'm telling you this because I assume you want an accurate picture of what to expect. Our offense is worse than those averages.

I understand. Clemson's offense was much better with Deshaun Watson than it has been with Cole Stoudt (which I mentioned in my original post). From the Syracuse perspective, I don't expect the Clemson offense this week-end without Watson to be nearly as good as the Florida State (with Winston), Notre Dame, or Maryland offenses that Syracuse has already faced this season.

Given the offensive/defensive matchup in this game, I'm thinking a 24-17 type game, though the margin could swing up or down from there if someone makes a play and scores a TD on defense or special teams. Both defenses are very aggressive, so I expect there will be chances to force turnovers and turn them into points (or short fields) for both teams.

 

[Crusty]

Excellent!!! (that's three exclamation points)

I think this game will come down to these stats, which I have rearranged for emphasis:

1. Passing Offense: Clemson #34 (275.7 ypg/36.5 apg/9 TD/4 INT) Passing Defense: Syracuse #65 (235.8 ypg/30 apg/11 TD/4 INT )
2. Passing Defense: Clemson #25 (203.2 ypg/30.5 apg/8 TD/3 INT), Passing Offense: Syracuse #81 (219.3 ypg/3.5 apg/3 TD/7 INT)

I am concerned that our soft zone won't cut it in this game and also concerned about blown coverage. A couple of these can be the difference.

More importantly, this game will probably rest on AJ's shoulders. Can he read Clemson's zones? I expect to see a lot of motion to reveal coverage and play action to slow their DL a bit. If Estime and Broyld are healthy it will be interesting to see how that improves AJ's choices.

I think it is pretty much AJ's to win or lose. Hope Lester has a good game plan for him.

 

[Cuse'91]

Penalties - Clemson #13 (4.3 ppg/38.3 ypg), Syracuse #91 (7.8 ppg/64.8 ypg)

In my book, this is the key stat...
Shamefully embarrassing that a SU football team is averaging almost 8 penalties per game...
That's Oakland Raiders undisciplined...

 

[Eric15]

Kickoff Returns (Offense) - Clemson #119 (17.78 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #126 (16.78 ypr, 0 TD)

Wow - I thought it was just my imagination that it seemed like every one of our drives starts at the 15 yard line due to a terrible kick return. But, it's true.

126th out of 128 teams.

 

[Crusty]

Wow - I thought it was just my imagination that it seemed like every one of our drives starts at the 15 yard line due to a terrible kick return. But, it's true.

126th out of 128 teams.

Estime

Wow - I thought it was just my imagination that it seemed like every one of our drives starts at the 15 yard line due to a terrible kick return. But, it's true.

126th out of 128 teams.

Estime is the only player that should be returning KO's.

 

[suloyalfan]

Excellent!!! (that's three exclamation points)

I think this game will come down to these stats, which I have rearranged for emphasis:

1. Passing Offense: Clemson #34 (275.7 ypg/36.5 apg/9 TD/4 INT) Passing Defense: Syracuse #65 (235.8 ypg/30 apg/11 TD/4 INT )
2. Passing Defense: Clemson #25 (203.2 ypg/30.5 apg/8 TD/3 INT), Passing Offense: Syracuse #81 (219.3 ypg/3.5 apg/3 TD/7 INT)

I am concerned that our soft zone won't cut it in this game and also concerned about blown coverage. A couple of these can be the difference.

More importantly, this game will probably rest on AJ's shoulders. Can he read Clemson's zones? I expect to see a lot of motion to reveal coverage and play action to slow their DL a bit. If Estime and Broyld are healthy it will be interesting to see how that improves AJ's choices.

I think it is pretty much AJ's to win or lose. Hope Lester has a good game plan for him.

Yes, I agree. For better or worse, the passing game is going to have a big impact. Syracuse has an advantage with their running game, but Clemson's defense is stout against the run. Hopefully with Broyld and Estime back we'll have enough weapons available on quick throws to stay out of trouble.

On the other side of things, I think Clemson will try to bubble screen us to death like Notre Dame did and then take shots down the field when we adjust. Syracuse needs to overload the 3 WR sets with a deep safety and force Clemson to check down to a running play. If we sit back in soft coverage (don't get beat deep) and let Cole Stoudt look like Payton Manning dinking and dunking the team down the field I'm not going to be happy.

 

[CUTater]

FYI, Clemson injury report:

Out
Oliver Jones, OT, torn ACL
Zac Brooks, RB, foot
Travis Blanks, SAF, Knee
Jay Guillermo, OL, Foot
Charone Peake, leg
Deshaun Watson, QB, hand
Adam Choice, RB, torn ACL
Jordan Leggett, TE, knee

Probable
Tyshon Dye, RB, Achilles
Martin Jenkins, DB, foot
Joe Gore, OT, appendectomy



Pretty painful to read. Every one of those guys except for Jones and Blanks probably could've started this game. It's our top 3 RBs.

 

[suloyalfan]

FYI - Syracuse injury report (in the spirit of comparison):

Out
Luke Arciniega (lower body)
Adly Enoicy (upper body)
Ivan Foy (lower body)
Keenan Hale (lower body)
Terrel Hunt (lower body)
Wayne Morgan (lower body)
Rodney Williams (lower body)
Wayne Williams (lower body)
Austin Wilson (upper body)

Questionable
Ben Lewis (upper body)

Probable
John Miller (lower body)
Rob Trudo (lower body)

Syracuse gets Broyld and Estime back finally, and hopefully Miller, Trudo, and Lewis will be available. Still missing key players in Foy, Hunt, and Morgan, but at least the list of players out seems to be getting shorter than previous weeks.

 

[Crusty]

FYI - Syracuse injury report (in the spirit of comparison):

Out
Luke Arciniega (lower body)
Adly Enoicy (upper body)
Ivan Foy (lower body)
Keenan Hale (lower body)
Terrel Hunt (lower body)
Wayne Morgan (lower body)
Rodney Williams (lower body)
Wayne Williams (lower body)
Austin Wilson (upper body)

Questionable
Ben Lewis (upper body)

Probable
John Miller (lower body)
Rob Trudo (lower body)

Syracuse gets Broyld and Estime back finally, and hopefully Miller, Trudo, and Lewis will be available. Still missing key players in Foy, Hunt, and Morgan, but at least the list of players out seems to be getting shorter than previous weeks.

Wilson must have had one heck of a concussion.

 

[javadoc]

Wilson must have had one heck of a concussion.

Or he's failing Combinatorics.

 

[CUTater]

Which of those injured players are starters?

Which are "key" starters?

I would say our "key" injuries are:

QB Watson - obviously
WR Peake - he would probably be our top WR if healthy
OL Guillermo - our other center stinks
OL Gore - starting RT, we've had to move a guard to RT and the interior has really suffered because of it