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[QUOTE="hobbit88, post: 21328, member: 1218"]
Yeah, I've got a good friend who is a long-time, dyed-in-the-wool Kentucky fan (he's intelligent too, fancy that).   We decided one night that about 50% of winning the Dance is good luck.

Aside and apart from injury, you can run into another team that's just as good as you are, and the whole thing comes down to one shot and a lucky/unlucky bounce.

Or one blown call by an official who doesn't have good line of sight but makes the call anyway (which of course is a bad call, and against your team).

Then there's the once-every-12-years situation where some freshman who is too young to realize how nervous he should be goes unconscious and drains 8 threes on you ...

Many, many ways to lose the tournament.

We were fortunate in 2009 that Roy managed to keep our 5-stars on board until they were juniors and seniors; that team clearly was the best in the nation and we managed to avoid any silly pitfalls.  Blake Griffin and the Okies gave us a run for our money in that tournament but the rest of the field was pretty much a cakewalk.

That was a very powerful college team, three of the starting five drafted in the 1st round, and a 4th guy went 2nd round and played his way onto an NBA roster.

This year's team might be comparable in terms of talent, but doesnt't have quite the experience our 2009 group did.
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