The 2020 NCAA Tournament Simulation - Summary

[jncuse]

In order to pass time over the next 3 weeks.I was thinking of setting up an NCAA tournament bracket and simulating it using the site below. This will also include a simulation of the remaining conference tourneys that have yet to be played.

This is an example that I just ran.

http://www.ncaagamesim.com/GameSimulator.asp?HomeTeam=SY&HomeYear=2020&AwayTeam=DU&AwayYear=2020&hs=1

If anybody is interested give me a like. Would like to know if 10 people would be interested before going too far.

EDIT - I removed the part of forcing Syracuse to win the ACC title.
I did not force the results for them. I simply continued to run win probabilties based on expected KP spreads, and random numbers to allow for upsets. And they won the ACC. Syracuse luck is better on my computer than real life.

 

[721Comstock]

We have dozens of posters watching what often may as well be still paintings of a crane for hours upon hours daily.

(While I'm not a Craniac, I do check the thread whenever it updates...
I can stop any time I want to! )

I'm sure you'll get folks who will be interested in this.

 

[jncuse]

Current Automatics Entering Thursday, March 12

AAC
ACC
America East
Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun - Liberty
Big East
Big 10
Big 12
Big Sky
Big West
Big South - Winthrop
Colonial - Hofstra
Conference USA
Horizon - Northern Kentucky
Ivy - Yale
MAC
MEAC
Metro Atlantic
Missouri Valley - Bradley
Mountain West - Utah St
Northeast - Robert Morris
Ohio Valley - Belmont
Pacific 12
Patriot - Boston University
SEC
Southern - East Tennessee St
Southland
Sun Belt
SWAC
WAC
WCC - Gonzaga

 

[orange79]

(While I'm not a Craniac, I do check the thread whenever it updates...
I can stop any time I want to! )

 

[jncuse]

Bubble Picture - Start of March 12

As we enter the heart of the conference tourneys Xavier and Stanford took major hits with losses on Wednesday. Indiana's win on Wednesday, to avoid a bad loss, probably locked up a bid.

The only low mid-major that could have stole a bid, Eastern Tennesssee St has also won. The real chaos will be in the A-10 and AAC tournaments.

Last Teams In (Not Locked)
Wichita St
Xavier
Stanford
Richmond
Cincy
----
UCLA
NC St
Texas
Miss St
Northern Iowa
Purdue

One team on the outside of the bubble can make a massive move -- Okie St if it beats #1 Kansas.

Let's go to the games.

Conference tourney results will be in two different threads
One thread will have all the conference results for smaller conferences
One thread will have all the results for the bigger conference.

 

[cuseattle]

Sounds like fun jncuse . Will there be a wager?

 

[jncuse]

Sounds like fun jncuse . Will there be a wager?

That's a great idea.

Running through the conference tourney's, but once I come up with the Bracket on Sunday, I will allow people to predict who they think will win.

 

[jncuse]

Bubble Picture - Start of March 12

Beginning of Day / March 12 Results
Wichita St (Start Friday)
Xavier (Finished Wednesday)
Stanford (Finished Wednesday)
Richmond (Start Friday)
Cincy (Start Friday)
----
UCLA - Q3 Loss to California
NC St - Q1 Loss to Duke
Texas - Q1 Loss to Texas Tech
Miss St - Start Friday
Northern Iowa - Done last weekend
Purdue - Q1 Win over Ohio St

At the end of Thursday

Last 5 In
Xavier - Done
Stanford - Done
Wichita St - play Friday
Richmond - play Friday
Cincy - play Friday

First 5 Out
UCLA - Done
Texas - Done
NC St - Done
Purdue - Play Friday
Miss St - Play Friday

 

[jncuse]

Syracuse also beat Louisville on Thursday, and will face #7 Notre Dame in the ACC Semi's,. Does a Syracuse win here get them an at-large even if they lose in the final?

With Texas, UCLA and NC St all losing on Thursday, and Syracuse getting a major Q1 win over Louisville, they are getting fairly close to those teams.

 

[jncuse]

Question for those that are interested, my method is fairly simple right now.

My method starts with KenPom calculated spreads, spread to proability chartm, random number generator. Takes about 20-30 seconds to do.

But since KenPom is the starting point, I want to ensure it is somewhat realistic when I run the NCAA tourney. While KP is a great system to rank 350 teams, there will be the odd outliers that look -- even KenPom himself has admitted that. I would downgrade the efficiency margin by a value of 2-3, upwards a couple points for some teams in my tourney simulation.

2026 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

What are up to 3 teams that you think are overrated and underrated per KP?
Overrated
All Big Ten Teams
West Virginia
Creighton (key injury)

Underrated
Virginia
Florida St
Kentucky (hate to say it)

 

[Cusefan0307]

Question for those that are interested, my method is fairly simple right now.

My method starts with KenPom calculated spreads, spread to proability chartm, random number generator. Takes about 20-30 seconds to do.

But since KenPom is the starting point, I want to ensure it is somewhat realistic when I run the NCAA tourney. While KP is a great system to rank 350 teams, there will be the odd outliers that look -- even KenPom himself has admitted that. I would downgrade the efficiency margin by a value of 2-3, upwards a couple points for some teams in my tourney simulation.

2026 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

What are up to 3 teams that you think are overrated and underrated per KP?
Overrated
All Big Ten Teams
West Virginia
Creighton (key injury)

Underrated
Virginia
Florida St
Kentucky (hate to say it)

Overrated:
Duke
BYU
Arizona

Underrated:
Florida State
Oregon
Auburn

 

[jncuse]

All Friday Games are Now Completed

Everything below was randomly generated. Small conferences went largely as expected, but the bigger conferences had some chaos.

Small Conferences
Finals are now set with nothing too crazy happening. The exception is the Sun Belt which finishes on Sunday. Almost all the #1 seeds will have a shot to win their conference tournaments. There are no bid stealer opportunities in any of these conferences.

Here are the Finals tomorrow for auto-bids
America East - #3 Hartford at #1 Vermont (-15.5)
Big Sky - #1 Eastern Washington (+4.0) vs #2 Northern Colorado
Big West - #1 UC Irvine (-3.5) vs #3 UC Santa Barbara
Conference USA - #1 North Texas (-8.0) vs #6 Marshall
MAC - #1 Akron (-3.0) vs #3 Ball St..
MEAC - #2 North Carolina A&T (pick em) vs #4 Bethune Cookman
Southland - #1 Stone Cold Steve Austin (-9.0) vs #6 Lamar
SWAC - #1 Prairie View A&M (-2.5) vs #2 Southern
WAC - #1 New Mexico St (-8.0) vs #2 Seattle

Larger Conferences and Bubble Picture

Entering Today (And Tourney Result)

Last 5 In
Xavier - Lost first game of BE on Thursday
Stanford - Lost first game of P-12 on Wednesday (Q3 Loss)
Wichita St - Lost first game of AAC on Friday
Richmond - Lost first game of A-10 on Friday
Cincy - Lost first game of AAC on Friday (Q3 Loss)

First 5 Out
UCLA - Lost first game of Pac-12 on Thursday (Q3 Loss)
Texas - Lost first game of Big 12 on Thursday (Q1 Loss)
NC St - Won first game in ACC, then Q1 loss on Thursday to Duke
Purdue - Won first two games of BIG-10 tourney (Two Q1 Wins)
Miss St - Won first game of SEC on Friday (Q1 Win)

Total chaos on the bubble right now as three teams now try to make a major move in tourney week as most teams right around the bubble line had one and outs in tourney week.

Purdue, Miss St and now Syracuse are right in the bubble picture.

Bubble Picture as of end of Day Friday - Way too confusing to call. The bubble was 10 for 5 spots before today as above, and now its 11 for 5 spots. Right now one can argue for anybody on that list being in, and anybody being out.


Bubble end of day Friday (11 for 5)
Xavier
Stanford
Cincy
Richmond
Wichita St
UCLA
Texas
NC St
Purdue - Still Playing
Miss St - Still Playing
Syracuse - Still Playing (still low chance but some will have them in)

Other Potential Bid Stealers in Large Conferences

Pac 12 Final - #1 Oregon St (-10.5) vs #11 Washington St
ACC Final - #4 Duke (-9.0) vs #6 Syracuse
SEC - Alabama has made the Semi's
American - UConn, UCF and Tulsa in Semi's
A-10 - George Mason, Rhode Island and Davidson in Semi's


You will almost think I fixed this to create the bubble confusion, but everything was based on taking win probabilities and generating random results.

 

[jncuse]

 

[jncuse]

All done for the day.

Everything else will get updated tomorrow evening.

If any of you are really bored chop down the 11 for 5 scenario above given the games played this week (i.e. Syracuse beat UNC, Louisville and Notre Dame)

 

[jncuse]

Saturday March 13 Summary

Auto Bid Games - FINALS
Bolded teams received auto bids
America East - #1 Vermont beat #3 Hartford
Big Sky - #1 Eastern Washington with a minor upset over #2 Northern Colorado (4.0 point dog)
Big West - #3 UC Santa Barbara with a minor upset over #1 UC Irvine (3.5 point dog)
Conference USA - #1 North Texas over #6 Marshall
MAC - #3 Ball St with a minor upset over #1 Akron (3.0 point dog)
MEAC - #4 Bethune Cookman over #2 North Carolina A&T
Southland - #1 Stone Cold Steve Austin beats #6 Lamar
SWAC - #2 Southern beats #1 Prairie View A&M
WAC - #1 New Mexico St beats #2 Seattle on a buzzer beater

One auto bid games remains for Sunday
Little Rock vs South Alabama for the Sun Belt Title

Multi Bid Conferences - "Finals"
Bolded teams earned auto bids
ACC - Syracuse beat Duke 60-59
Big 12 - Kansas beat Baylor
Big East - Butler beat Seton Hall
Pac 12 - Oregon beats Washington St

Finals Tomorrow
Big 10 -#5 Iowa vs #10 Purdue
SEC - #3 LSU vs #4 Miss St
A-10 - #1 Dayton vs #7 Davidson
AAC - #2 Houston vs #5 UConn

Bubble Picture

Before Today it was 11 teams for 5 Spots. The 3 teams who had made big moves this week continued to do so - Syracuse won the ACC, Purdue made the BIG Final, and Miss St made the SEC Final.

Bubble end of day Saturday (10 for 4)
Xavier - Loss first game of tournament
Stanford - Loss first game of tournament (Q3)
Cincy - Loss first game of tournament (Q3)
Richmond - Loss first game of tournament
Wichita St - Loss first game of tournament
UCLA - Loss first game of tournament
Texas - Loss first game of tournament
NC St - Lost game 2 of ACC
Purdue - Still Playing (won 3 games in BIG tourney - tomorrow final
Miss St - Still Playing (won 2 games in SEC - tomorrow final

 

[jncuse]

Selection Show Tomorrow at 6:00

 

[Briancuse]

Selection Show Tomorrow at 6:00

 

[Alsacs]

Selection Show Tomorrow at 6:00

Cmon 10 seed in the East bracketed with Maryland.

 

[721Comstock]

Spoiler alert! Cuse made it!!

 

[Briancuse]

Spoiler alert! Cuse made it!!

I'm just a little depressed today. Selection Sunday is one of my favorite days of the year. I feel like Christmas has been cancelled.

 

[jncuse]

Sunday March 14 Summary

One-Bid League Finals
#1 Little Rock beats South Alabama for the Sun Belt Title

Multi-Bid League Finals
Big 10 -#10 Purdue beats #5 Iowa
SEC - #3 LSU beats #4 Miss St
A-10 - #1 Dayton beats #7 Davidson
AAC - #2 Houston beats #5 UConn

Bubble Picture

Before Today it was 10 teams for 4 Spots. Friday it was 11 for 5. But now it down to 9 for 3, as Syracuse and Purdue locked auto bids in the ACC and B10.

Final (9 for 3)
Xavier - Loss first game of tournament
Stanford - Loss first game of tournament (Q3)
Cincy - Loss first game of tournament (Q3)
Richmond - Loss first game of tournament
Wichita St - Loss first game of tournament
UCLA - Loss first game of tournament
Texas - Loss first game of tournament
NC St - Lost game 2 of ACC
Miss St - Still Playing (won 2 games in SEC - tomorrow final

Committee Room Discussion

One member asked - "Should we now consider UConn for an at-large spot since they made the AAC final"
The chair replied - "Letter before G UConn"

One member asked - "Mr Chair, should we not take more than 5 minutes to discuss the merits of these 9 teams"
The chair replied - "I have already spent too much time doing all the work for you dumbasses, I took 5 minutes, I picked those 3 teams, now screw off"

EDIT- I knew the did not pass filters, but even does not pass filters.
EDIT - After posting the prior edit you can't even say the first 3 letters of Efficiency on this board anymore. It's treated the same as a swear word. Not criticizing the board admins, just amusing.

 

[jncuse]

This was the final bracket. No pretty full table

INDY plays New York In Final Four
LA plays Houston in Final Four

 

[blust2i3d4]

Great work for doing this. Good job!

 

[jncuse]

The first day of the NCAA tournament is over

#10 Syracuse continues its postseason run by winning its fifth game in a row against #7 seed Michigan

While there was no major upsets, #1 Gonzaga was pushed into overtime against #16 Southern in a 109-107 that included two buzzer beaters.

#2 Villanova and #2 Florida St were pushed by their 15 seeds, but managed to pull away in the last few minutes.

The simulated upsets were in line with what typically happens in an NCAA Tournament.
Two #10's, #11's, and #12's advanced on the first day (Syracuse, Purdue, Utah St, East Tennessee St, Yale, UCLA )

In terms of conferences the most impressive so far has been the Big East followed by the Pac-12, and the biggest embarassment has been the Big-10.



Conference Standings
Big East 5-1
Pac12 4-0 (includes 2 wins by UCLA, so 3 teams have advanced)
ACC 2-1
SEC 2-0
Big12 1-2
BigTen 1-4

 

[721Comstock]

The first day of the NCAA tournament is over

#10 Syracuse continues its postseason run by winning its fifth game in a row against #7 seed Michigan

While there was no major upsets, #1 Gonzaga was pushed into overtime against #16 Southern in a 109-107 that included two buzzer beaters.

#2 Villanova and #2 Florida St were pushed by their 15 seeds, but managed to pull away in the last few minutes.

The simulated upsets were in line with what typically happens in an NCAA Tournament.
Two #10's, #11's, and #12's advanced on the first day (Syracuse, Purdue, Utah St, East Tennessee St, Yale, UCLA )

In terms of conferences the most impressive so far has been the Big East followed by the Pac-12, and the biggest embarassment has been the Big-10.



Conference Standings
Big East 5-1
Pac12 4-0 (includes 2 wins by UCLA, so 3 teams have advanced)
ACC 2-1
SEC 2-0
Big12 1-2
BigTen 1-4

The B1G showing up little.
Art imitates life.
Shocker.