The Athletic's ACC Mailbag - Predictions for SU this fall

[IthacaMatt]

I think she's selling us a a couple games short. She thinks we only win one of Ga. Tech, Stanford and Pitt, and none of them against NC State, Va Tech and Miami, even though we have 4 out of 6 of those games at home. Only one win? Nah, we'll do better than that.

= = = =

Thoughts on how many games Fran Brown and Syracuse will win this year? — Peter G.

Syracuse is the wild card in the ACC heading into 2024. BetMGM has the Orange’s over/under at 7.5 wins, which feels about right to me — although I’m not sure anything will surprise me.

The argument for Syracuse winning at least eight games stems from what the Orange did this offseason. Brown was one of the more exciting hires of the coaching carousel, and the Orange dipped into the transfer portal to grab an experienced quarterback, Kyle McCord. Throw in the fact Syracuse avoids Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame, North Carolina and Louisville on the schedule this season, and I can talk myself into Brown’s first year starting with a splash.

The hype around the Orange, though, gives me a bit of pause. For as much buzz as Brown has brought into the program with his recruiting efforts, this is still a team that finished with the nation’s No. 99 offense and No. 67 defense in 2023. This is still a program that has had only two winning seasons since 2013. And Syracuse has just the ninth-best odds to win the ACC, per BetMGM, behind Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Louisville, NC State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and SMU.

If we assume the Orange should be able to handle Ohio, Holy Cross, UNLV and UConn, that’s four wins right there. I’d take the Orange over Boston College and Cal, as well. But it’s a toss-up against Georgia Tech, Stanford and Pitt. NC State, Virginia Tech and Miami would be tough. Give me eight wins: seven in the regular season plus a bowl game. — Grace Raynor

For the rest of the article:
ACC mailbag: What's realistic for Georgia Tech? Can Bill O'Brien get it done at BC?

 

[djorange1989]

How the hell is Stanford at home on a Friday night a toss up?! And Cal on the road can be penciled in as a win? I think she mixed those teams up.

 

[HtownOrange]

It’s still June. GR must be blissful because she is very ignorant.



(removes Orange colored glasses)

I think 7 wins is the floor. 10 wins is possible. I think FB has better OL coaching and more offensive weapons. Part of the defense appearing so bad last fall was that they had no help from the offense. Even a mediocre offense will make the defense that much better, and I think we will have a much better offense, with depth!

 

[IthacaMatt]

It’s still June. GR must be blissful because she is very ignorant.



(removes Orange colored glasses)

I think 7 wins is the floor. 10 wins is possible. I think FB has better OL coaching and more offensive weapons. Part of the defense appearing so bad last fall was that they had no help from the offense. Even a mediocre offense will make the defense that much better, and I think we will have a much better offense, with depth!

From a recruiting momentum perspective, I think they have to win 8. Next year's schedule is tougher. We have to hold on to all these quality commitments, and I think 8 wins regular season is the magic number.

 

[dwilmont44]

Has it really been 2 winning seasons since 2013?

 

[Chip]

Has it really been 2 winning seasons since 2013?

Yep. 2018 and 2022 (saved by the offense waking up in the 4th quarter against BC).

 

[721Comstock]

I think she's selling us a a couple games short. She thinks we only win one of Ga. Tech, Stanford and Pitt, and none of them against NC State, Va Tech and Miami, even though we have 4 out of 6 of those games at home. Only one win? Nah, we'll do better than that.

= = = =

Thoughts on how many games Fran Brown and Syracuse will win this year? — Peter G.

Syracuse is the wild card in the ACC heading into 2024. BetMGM has the Orange’s over/under at 7.5 wins, which feels about right to me — although I’m not sure anything will surprise me.

The argument for Syracuse winning at least eight games stems from what the Orange did this offseason. Brown was one of the more exciting hires of the coaching carousel, and the Orange dipped into the transfer portal to grab an experienced quarterback, Kyle McCord. Throw in the fact Syracuse avoids Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame, North Carolina and Louisville on the schedule this season, and I can talk myself into Brown’s first year starting with a splash.

The hype around the Orange, though, gives me a bit of pause. For as much buzz as Brown has brought into the program with his recruiting efforts, this is still a team that finished with the nation’s No. 99 offense and No. 67 defense in 2023. This is still a program that has had only two winning seasons since 2013. And Syracuse has just the ninth-best odds to win the ACC, per BetMGM, behind Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Louisville, NC State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and SMU.

If we assume the Orange should be able to handle Ohio, Holy Cross, UNLV and UConn, that’s four wins right there. I’d take the Orange over Boston College and Cal, as well. But it’s a toss-up against Georgia Tech, Stanford and Pitt. NC State, Virginia Tech and Miami would be tough. Give me eight wins: seven in the regular season plus a bowl game. — Grace Raynor

For the rest of the article:
ACC mailbag: What's realistic for Georgia Tech? Can Bill O'Brien get it done at BC?

Ridiculous. Lazy.

The whole “yeah, but - their stats last season blew” thing -
Who cares??!!

That’s why we canned the HC!!
and brought in a new staff and nearly an entire new, vastly upgraded roster!!

We’d lost our AA receiving threat immediately, our QB halfway thru, and were running Wildcat w our TE2.

And because the O was useless, the D got worn down, and we were down to 3rd & 4th string on the D-line.

Lastly - we got rid of Dino’s bizzaro-world game planning, clock mismanagement, and lack of discipline that led to leading the planet in penalties against, yet again.

 

[djorange1989]

Has it really been 2 winning seasons since 2013?

Yep and this century we have only won more than 7 regular season games twice so 8 wins or more this year would be a nice thing

 

[Dinkyspond]

Has it really been 2 winning seasons since 2013?

It's actually three, a mistake in the article, not surprising they made a mistake. Typical lazy research and reporting. 7-6 in 2013 and 2022, 10-3 in 2018. That's three.

 

[Cusefan69]

Yeah again we need some back to back good seasons and let the wins do our talking. Then we will start to see some love. Nothing to get fussed about here.

 

[Cuse181]

It's actually three, a mistake in the article, not surprising they made a mistake. Typical lazy research and reporting. 7-6 in 2013 and 2022, 10-3 in 2018. That's three.

Well, also depends on your definition of since, no? Since 2013 can be inclusive or exclusive of 2013 itself depending on context

 

[anomander]

Didn’t mention OG coming back after a missed year is another major addition. Think that prediction really under sells the talent, but a lot will depend on how 2 relatively inexperienced coordinators are able to do. I think their performance is the difference between 7 wins or 9-10.

 

[SU68]

I have no problem with the "expert" rating us low. We have a HC who has never coached a game. We have an OL that is traditionally bad and a defense that didn't live up to its own standards last year.

The prognosticators would give us a decent pre-season prediction and then we would go out and lay an egg. They have been burned and are (IMHO) gun-shy this season. Our guys will just have to prove them wrong on the turf.

 

[Orijinal]

The reason we have only had like 2 winning seasons since 2013: the starting QB is always seriously hurt. And last year OG was gone in game 2

Due to this factor alone, Cuse teams are always better than given credit for

What would happen if McCord stayed healthy all year?

 

[Cuse12]

Ridiculous. Lazy.

The whole “yeah, but - their stats last season blew” thing -
Who cares??!!

That’s why we canned the HC!!
and brought in a new staff and nearly an entire new, vastly upgraded roster!!

We’d lost our AA receiving threat immediately, our QB halfway thru, and were running Wildcat w our TE2.

And because the O was useless, the D got worn down, and we were down to 3rd & 4th string on the D-line.

Lastly - we got rid of Dino’s bizzaro-world game planning, clock mismanagement, and lack of discipline that led to leading the planet in penalties against, yet again.

I won’t miss immediate 3 and outs when we get the ball first. I have no stats to back it up, but I feel like our first drives of each half last year were not very fruitful.

 

[SUskibum]

10, 5, 5, 7, 6 is our win total each of the past 5 non covid years. That screams middle teir to me particularly if you scrub the record for when we had our QB1 and consider we had Clemson, FSU, Louisville and the best coastal team (Pitt barf) during that time plus our fair share of ND games.

Wins including the following programs over that time

FSU, VT, Purdue, Louisville, UNC, WVU, NCSt (2x) Pitt, and of course Clemson the year before this period

I think that Dino put us squarely into mediocrity and out of the laughing stock that we were in during the previous decade, ex HCDM years.

My belief is that Fran will be skipping over respectable stepping directly into the feared category because, thats just how Fran rolls. He doesnt seem to keep time the way most humans do. He works in like reverse dog years or something.

 

[Scooch]

This is a tough crowd. Columnist thinks our 7.5 win O/U is fair, and predicts 7. That also means 8 is in play, given the O/U.

We have a head coach who's never coached a game in that position, a staff that will have been on the job for all of 9 months when the season kicks off, and a roster full of guys who are expected to meaningfully contribute but have never played a game for SU ever.

Predicting 7 or 8 wins seems fine.

Of course, I know folks here think we're gonna win a title. So I do calibrate that accordingly.

 

[SUskibum]

This is a tough crowd. Columnist thinks our 7.5 win O/U is fair, and predicts 7. That also means 8 is in play, given the O/U.

We have a head coach who's never coached a game in that position, a staff that will have been on the job for all of 9 months when the season kicks off, and a roster full of guys who are expected to meaningfully contribute but have never played a game for SU ever.

Predicting 7 or 8 wins seems fine.

Of course, I know folks here think we're gonna win a title. So I do calibrate that accordingly.

It's not the number that people are reacting to, its the analysis.

Her first line talks about what we add, and we did add a lot (and at the most important positions), but she completely glosses over the most important aspect, THE SCHEDULE.

The past 5 (non covid) years we averaged almost 7 wins and that was with 1+ P5 oppenents OOC per year (ND, ND, Purdue etc) and the arguabley 5 toughest ACC teams on our schedule (Clemson, FSU, Louisville, NCST, Pitt) during that period.

Compare that to this year were we have no P4 OOC games and avoid all but 1 of the toughest ACC teams (NCST).

We will have the best QB in 11 of our 12 games and most of our 'toughest' games are in the Dome (ex NCST).

If we sweep our OOC (likely) and split the mediocre part of our ACC schedule 3-3, that assumes losses to NCST and Miami and is a pretty reasonble floor for this year, 7-5. A reasonable ceiling (again we have no top 10 teams on this scheudle) is 10-11 wins like Pitt did the year they had a light schedule and went to the ACC Championship game.

(7+10)/2=8.5 regular season wins as a baseline.

That analysis could have just as easily come up with 7.5 but would have been a heck of a lot deeper than "2 winning seasons in since 2013 makes it hard for me to see more than 7 wins even if the new coach has lots of buzz"

See how its not just the number?

 

[Scooch]

It's not the number that people are reacting to, its the analysis.

Her first line talks about what we add, and we did add a lot (and at the most important positions), but she completely glosses over the most important aspect, THE SCHEDULE.

The past 5 (non covid) years we averaged almost 7 wins and that was with 1+ P5 oppenents OOC per year (ND, ND, Purdue etc) and the arguabley 5 toughest ACC teams on our schedule (Clemson, FSU, Louisville, NCST, Pitt) during that period.

Compare that to this year were we have no P4 OOC games and avoid all but 1 of the toughest ACC teams (NCST).

We will have the best QB in 11 of our 12 games and most of our 'toughest' games are in the Dome (ex NCST).

If we sweep our OOC (likely) and split the mediocre part of our ACC schedule 3-3, that assumes losses to NCST and Miami and is a pretty reasonble floor for this year, 7-5. A reasonable ceiling (again we have no top 10 teams on this scheudle) is 10-11 wins like Pitt did the year they had a light schedule and went to the ACC Championship game.

(7+10)/2=8.5 regular season wins as a baseline.

That analysis could have just as easily come up with 7.5 but would have been a heck of a lot deeper than "2 winning seasons in since 2013 makes it hard for me to see more than 7 wins even if the new coach has lots of buzz"

See how its not just the number?

That’s your analysis, though. And it’s making assumptions about the strength of our schedule. All teams that have had much roster turnover, staff changes, developmental uncertainty, etc. like us.

Most programs take a step back when they change head coaches. Especially ones that have been as thoroughly mediocre as we’ve been. We’d be bucking a ton of historical precedent to add 2-4 wins to last years total. Not that it’s impossible, but we didn’t hire Saban either.

 

[IthacaMatt]

The reason we have only had like 2 winning seasons since 2013: the starting QB is always seriously hurt. And last year OG was gone in game 2

Due to this factor alone, Cuse teams are always better than given credit for

What would happen if McCord stayed healthy all year?

I hope we find out!

 

[baggerbob]

That’s your analysis, though. And it’s making assumptions about the strength of our schedule. All teams that have had much roster turnover, staff changes, developmental uncertainty, etc. like us.

Most programs take a step back when they change head coaches. Especially ones that have been as thoroughly mediocre as we’ve been. We’d be bucking a ton of historical precedent to add 2-4 wins to last years total. Not that it’s impossible, but we didn’t hire Saban either.

Good thing, that's why he retired, he didn't like to recruit under NIL.
It changes the field, you can't keep potentially good players on the bench.
Now with NIL and new transfer rules they can leave for another school.

 

[Scooch]

Good thing, that's why he retired, he didn't like to recruit under NIL.
It changes the field, you can't keep potentially good players on the bench.
Now with NIL and new transfer rules they can leave for another school.

My point is that we hired a defensive backs coach, not an accomplished, known quantity.

Getting all torqued off because a writer thinks we should win 7-8 games seems odd to me, analysis aside.

 

[baggerbob]

My point is that we hired a defensive backs coach, not an accomplished, known quantity.

Getting all torqued off because a writer thinks we should win 7-8 games seems odd to me, analysis aside.

I personally could care less what magazines or pod casts say. Following football and basketball for the last 60+ Years. I've found most times they are wrong, but it's fun to read.
When you have as many teams as there are unless you can see into the future,it's just a guess.

 

[Offthedome]

That’s your analysis, though. And it’s making assumptions about the strength of our schedule. All teams that have had much roster turnover, staff changes, developmental uncertainty, etc. like us.

Most programs take a step back when they change head coaches. Especially ones that have been as thoroughly mediocre as we’ve been. We’d be bucking a ton of historical precedent to add 2-4 wins to last years total. Not that it’s impossible, but we didn’t hire Saban either.

I think our new strength and conditioning alone is worth one more win.