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[QUOTE="SUskibum, post: 5108757, member: 149"]
It's not the number that people are reacting to, its the analysis.

Her first line talks about what we add, and we did add a lot (and at the most important positions), but she completely glosses over the most important aspect, THE SCHEDULE.

The past 5 (non covid) years we averaged almost 7 wins and that was with 1+ P5 oppenents OOC per year (ND, ND, Purdue etc) and the arguabley 5 toughest ACC teams on our schedule (Clemson, FSU, Louisville, NCST, Pitt) during that period.

Compare that to this year were we have no P4 OOC games and avoid all but 1 of the toughest ACC teams (NCST).

We will have the best QB in 11 of our 12 games and most of our 'toughest' games are in the Dome (ex NCST).

If we sweep our OOC (likely) and split the mediocre part of our ACC schedule 3-3, that assumes losses to NCST and Miami and is a pretty reasonble floor for this year, 7-5.  A reasonable ceiling (again we have no top 10 teams on this scheudle) is 10-11 wins like Pitt did the year they had a light schedule and went to the ACC Championship game.

(7+10)/2=8.5 regular season wins as a baseline.

That analysis could have just as easily come up with 7.5 but would have been a heck of a lot deeper than "2 winning seasons in since 2013 makes it hard for me to see more than 7 wins even if the new coach has lots of buzz"

See how its not just the number?
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