The Contenders - heading into November

[SWC75]

The last few years at this time in the college football season I’ve begun making weekly posts called “The Undefeated”, in which I gave detailed information about the remaining undefeated teams and they tried to stay in contention for first the BCS championships game and now the playoffs. Toward the end of the season, if it became apparent that we were going to have a one loss team in the playoff, I included information about them. The information was their record, their ranking, their points against ranked teams, (see that post), the remaining schedule, including the same information for each team.

I’ve decided to simply these posts by focusing on upcoming games against the teams most likely to knock them off and be contenders themselves. I won’t be providing all the stats about each team: just who they play and when that might be a big threat. I’m going to call it “The Contenders” instead of “The Undefeated”. I’m going to list each undefeated team ranked in the AP, (writer’s) top 25 and then each one loss team from any of the ‘power five’ conferences, (the ACC, The SEC, the Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12)or that continues to be ranked. There is virtually a 100% chance that all four playoff teams will come from this group. We’ve had one two loss team play for the title since the BCS started, (LSU 2007) and they are the only two loss national champion we’ve ever had. Then I’ll list the teams also on that list that they will be playing, when and where. That way we’ll be able to look forward to the big match-ups to come on the same page.

Update: I’ve decided that beginning November, (the month they’ll remember, per Coach Mac), that I would supply the same sort of specifics I’ve presented in past years for each one: the full schedule, the record, the point differential, the various rankings and appoints accumulated against ranked teams, (see my “Against Ranked Teams” post.) The rankings are the highest ranking in any of the major polls.

Undefeated teams:

ALABAMA 8-0 (351-119) ranked #1 / 158 points vs. ranked teams
11/5 at Louisiana State 5-2 (209-105) ranked #13 / 20 points vs. ranked teams
11/12 Mississippi State 3-5 (243-240) 3 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 Chattanooga 8-1 (333-133) ranked #8 in FCS
11/26 Auburn 6-2 (290-128) ranked #9 / 93 points vs. ranked teams.
They most likely would play Florida (6-1, 206-82, ranked #9/ two points against ranked teams) in the conference title game.

CLEMSON 8-0 (293-141) ranked #2 / 46 points vs. ranked teams
11/5 Syracuse 4-4 (213-253) 23 points vs. ranked teams
11/12 Pittsburgh 5-3 (305-259)
11/19 at Wake Forest 5-3 (165-146) 1 point vs. ranked teams
11/26 South Carolina 4-4 (142-170) 17 points vs. ranked teams
They most likely would play Virginia Tech (6-2, 290-161 ranked #19 / 40 points vs. ranked teams) in the conference title game.

MICHIGAN 8-0 (373-93) ranked #2 / 25 points vs. ranked teams
11/5 Maryland 5-3 (261-186)
11/12 at Iowa 5-3 (225-151) 8 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 Indiana 4-4 (211-212) 26 points vs. ranked teams
11/26 at Ohio State 7-1 (341-121) ranked #6 / 58 points vs. ranked teams
At this point Nebraska (7-1, 256-147, ranked #9 / 16 points vs. ranked teams) would be the team to play them in the Big Ten title game but they are 4-1 in conference with four 3-2 teams behind them, including Wisconsin (6-2, 193-117, ranked #8) who just beat Nebraska. And the Huskers have quite the schedule remaining – see below.

WASHINGTON 8-0 (369-126) ranked #4 / 73 points vs. ranked teams
11/5 at California 4-4 (330-334) 35 points vs. ranked teams
11/12 Southern California 5-3 (243-192) 11 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 Arizona State 5-4 (321-329) 0 points vs. ranked teams
11/25 at Washington State 6-2 (318-215) ranked #25 / 37 points vs. ranked teams
Right now they would be facing Colorado (6-2, 283-145, ranked #15 / 4 points vs. ranked teams) in the conference title game but they are 4-1 with Utah (7-2, 263-204 ranked #16 / 15 points vs. ranked teams) and USC (5-3, 243-192, unranked / 11 points vs. ranked teams )at 4-2 behind them. USC beat Colorado but lost to Utah, who has yet to play Colorado.

Comments: Alabama will be favored to run the table. Florida hasn’t really beaten anybody good yet. The real threat is their old pals at Auburn (5-2), who seem to be coming on strong again. Clemson should be clear until their conference title game but they keep blade-running. Michigan will have Ohio State and a good team, in the Big Ten title game. Washington will have a rivalry game on the road vs. Washington State and then a good team in the Pac 12 title game. Could we have an all undefeated Final Four? It’s certainly possible – and wouldn’t that be fun! But somebody will probably upset the apple cart.


One loss teams:

BAYLOR 6-1 (296-138) ranked #13
11/5 Texas Christian 4-4 (275-241)
11/12 at Oklahoma 6-2 (363-260) ranked #11 / 14 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 Kansas State 5-3 (243-173) 5 points vs. ranked teams
11/25 Texas Tech 4-4 (379-331) 3 points vs. ranked teams
12/3 at West Virginia 6-1 (218-144) ranked #14
The Big 12 has no title game.

FLORIDA 6-1 (206-82) ranked #9 / 2 points vs. ranked teams
11/5 at Arkansas 5-3 (247-251) 38 points vs. ranked teams
11/12 South Carolina 4-4 (142-170) 17 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 at Louisiana State 5-2 (209-105) ranked #13 / 20 points vs. ranked teams
11/26 at Florida State 5-3 (278-239) ranked #19 / 63 points vs. ranked teams
They most likely would play Alabama (8-0, 351-119, ranked #1 / 158 points vs. ranked teams) in the SEC title game.

LOUISVILLE 7-1 (400-184) ranked #5 / 82 points vs. ranked teams
11/5 at Boston College 4-4 (168-184)
11/12 Wake Forest 5-3 (165-146) 1 point vs. ranked teams
11/17 at Houston 7-2 (346-195) 33 points vs. ranked teams
11/26 Kentucky 5-3 (222-247)
They most likely would play Virginia Tech (6-2, 290-161, ranked #21 / 40 points vs. ranked teams) in the conference title game but they are behind and lost to Clemson in their own division.

NEBRASKA 7-1 (256-147) ranked #9 / 16 points vs. ranked teams
11/5 Ohio State 7-1 (341-121) ranked #6 / 58 points vs. ranked teams
11/12 Minnesota 6-2 (257-177)
11/19 Maryland 5-3 (261-186)
11/25 at Iowa 5-3 (225-151) 8 points vs. ranked teams
They most likely would play Michigan (8-0, 373-93, ranked #2 / 25 points vs. ranked teams) in the Big Ten title game.

OHIO STATE 7-1 (341-121) ranked #6 / 58 points vs. ranked teams
11/5 Nebraska 7-1 (256-147) ranked #9 / 16 points vs. ranked teams
11/12 at Maryland 5-3 (261-186)
11/19 at Michigan State 2-6 (185-240) 30 points vs. ranked teams
11/26 Michigan 8-0 (373-93) ranked #2 / 25 points vs. ranked teams
At this point Nebraska (7-1, 256-147, ranked #9 / 16 points vs. ranked teams) would be the team to play them in the Big Ten title game but they are 4-1 in conference with four 3-2 teams behind them, including Wisconsin (6-2, 193-117, ranked #8 / 122 points vs. ranked teams) who just beat Nebraska. And the Huskers have quite the schedule remaining – see above.

TEXAS A&M 6-1 (307-158) ranked #4 / 77 points vs. ranked teams
11/5 at Mississippi State 3-5 (243-240) 3 points vs. ranked teams
11/12 Mississippi 3-5 (288-260) 76 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 Texas San Antonio 4-4 (236-215)
11/24 Louisiana State 5-2 (209-105) ranked #14 / 20 points vs. ranked teams
They most likely would play Florida (6-1, 206-82 ranked #9 / 2 points vs. ranked teams) in the conference title game.

WEST VIRGINIA is 6-1 (218-144) ranked #14
11/5 Kansas 1-7 (155-314)
11/12 at Texas 4-4 (288-262) 39 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 Oklahoma 6-2 (363-260) ranked #11 / 14 points vs. ranked teams
11/26 Iowa State 1-7 (192-259) 10 points vs. ranked teams
12/3 Baylor 6-1 (296-138) ranked #13
The Big 12 has no title game.

Power Five 2 Loss teams:
Auburn 6-2 (290-128) ranked #9 / 93 points against ranked teams
Colorado 6-2 (283-145) ranked #15 / 4 points against ranked teams
Louisiana State 5-2 (209-105) ranked #13 / 20 points against ranked teams
Minnesota 6-2 (257-177)
North Carolina 6-2 (260-216) ranked #17 / 33 points against ranked teams
Oklahoma 7-2 (397-284) ranked #11 / 14 points against ranked teams
Oklahoma State 6-2 (325-212) ranked #18/ 55 points against ranked teams
Penn State 6-2 (269-216) ranked #12 / 27 points against ranked teams
Utah 7-2 (263-204) ranked #16 / 15 points against ranked teams
Virginia Tech 6-2 (290-161) ranked #19 / 40 points against ranked teams
Washington State 6-2 (318-215) 37 points against ranked teams
Wisconsin 6-2 (193-117) ranked #8 / 122 points against ranked teams

Comment: Louisville is the highest ranked team here but if Ohio State runs the table that will change. The Buckeyes would certainly get in above them. Florida and Nebraska could get in by winning their conference title games – which would be against the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the country. Texas A&M is snookered behind Alabama and unlikely to make it. The Big 12 will have no unbeaten team and not title game and no top 10 teams. They aren’t in line for a spot in the playoffs and have no way to get there, because they are just playing each other. It would take a bizarre set of results to get one of them in there. If only they still had the schools they lost like Texas A&M and Nebraska.

 

[SWC75]

THE PESCI BOWL

Besides keeping track of the current contenders for the college football play, for the last couple of years I have been imagining something I call the Pesci Bowl- a bowl game between the two best teams who were unable to make the playoff besides excellent records because their schedules were not considered “big time”. In current parlance, that would mean teams that aren’t in the “Power Five” conferences. (For my estimation of who might have played in previous “Pesci Bowls” – see below). I’ve named the fictional event after actor Joe Pesci, a vertically challenged but feisty actor we’ve seen in many films, especially “Goodfellas” and “Casino”.

I’ve listed the non-Power Five teams with no or one loss with the teams they have left to play on their schedules that are also on the list. The rankings are the highest ranking in any of the major polls. ‘Points’ against ranked teams are from my week “Against Ranked Teams” post.

BOISE STATE 7-1 (268-173) ranked 24th
11/4 San Jose State 3-6 (208-316)
11/12 at Hawaii 4-5 (268-327)
11/18 UNLV 3-6 (275-288)
11/25 at Air Force 5-3 (264-204)
Having lost to Wyoming, they are second in their division and wouldn’t have to play in the conference title game.

WESTERN MICHIGAN 9-0 (407-174) ranked 17th
11/8 at Kent State 3-6 (198-234)
11/19 Buffalo 2-6 (145-254)
11/25 Toledo 7-2 (363-205)
Barring upsets they will play Ohio U. (6-3, 259-220, 2 points against ranked teams) in the MAC title game.

SAN DIEGO STATE 7-1 (267-136)
11/5 Hawaii 4-5 (268-327)
11/12 at Nevada 3-5 (180-220)
11/19 at Wyoming 6-2 (271-240)
11/26 Colorado State 4-4 (214-223)
If they beat Wyoming but the Cowboys win the rest of their games, there will be a rematch in the Mountain West title game.

TROY 6-1 (263-139) 18 points against ranked teams
11/5 Massachusetts 2-7 (200-277)
11/12 Appalachian State 6-2 (211-142)
11/17 Arkansas State 3-4 (162-187)
11/26 at Texas State 2-5 (168-285)
12/3 at Georgia Southern 4-4 (214-194)
The Sun Belt conference has no title game.

2-loss teams:
Appalachian State 6-2 (211-142)
Houston 6-2 (337-255) 33 points against ranked teams.
Middle Tennessee State 6-2 (324-239)
Navy 5-2 (248-202) 26 points against ranked teams.
South Florida 7-2 (391-272)
Toledo 7-2 (363-205)
Tulsa 6-2 (337-255) 6 points against ranked teams.
Wyoming 6-2 (271-240)


Comments: I think Western Michigan will run the table, (although Toledo may have something to say about that), and be in the PESCI bowl. Their opponent will likely be the Mountain West winner although if the one loss teams all get a second loss, the other two loss teams obviously come into play.

 

[SWC75]

THE TY-DEE BOWL

For the last few years I’ve had a fantasy about having the two worst teams in the country play in a bowl game to see who is the worst of the worst, (among major teams). It’s kind of mean-spirted and they might say no – but it could be quite a hard fought and entertaining game and maybe the schools might need the money – and have a desire to prove that they aren’t the worst by beating a team they might actually be able to beat. Here are all the FBS teams that are currently winless and those who currently have one loss and their upcoming games against each other. (I call it the Ty-Dee Bowl after the toilet cleaning product.)


There are no winless teams

The one win teams:

BOWLING GREEN 1-8 (191-406)
11/9 at Akron 5-5 (298-356)
11/15 Kent State 3-6 (198-234)
11/25 Buffalo 2-7 (155-288)

FLORIDA ATLANTIC 1-7 (160-302)
11/5 at Rice 1-7 (195-320)
11/12 Texas-El Paso 2-6 (167-306)
11/19 Old Dominion 5-3 (259-233)
11/26 at Middle Tennessee State 6-2 (324-239)

FRESNO STATE 1-8 (185-304)
11/5 at Colorado State 4-4 (214-223) 6 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 Hawaii 4-5 (268-327)
11/26 San Jose State 3-6 (208-316)

IOWA STATE 1-8 (216-293) 12 points vs. ranked teams
11/12 at Kansas 1-7 (155-314)
11/19 Texas Tech 4-4 (379-331) 3 points vs. ranked teams
11/26 West Virginia 6-1 (218-144)

KANSAS 1-7 (155-314)
11/5 at West Virginia 6-1 (218-144) ranked #14
11/12 Iowa State 1-8 (216-293) 12 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 Texas 4-4 (288-262) 39 points vs. ranked teams
11/26 at Kansas State 5-3 (243-173) 5 points vs. ranked teams

ICE 1-7 (195-320)
11/5 Florida Atlantic 1-7 (160-302)
11/12 at Charlotte3-5 (198-295)
11/19 Texas El-Paso 2-6 (167-306)
11/26 at Stanford 5-3 (153-152)

Two win teams:
Arizona 2-6 (193-265) 10 points vs. ranked teams
Buffalo 2-7 (155-288)
Georgia State 2-7 (174-221) 11 points vs. ranked teams
Illinois 2-6 (181-238)
Marshall 2-6 (241-277)
Massachusetts 2-7 (200-277)
Michigan State 2-6 (185-240)
Missouri 2-6 (265-243) 9 points vs. ranked teams
Oregon State 2-6 (199-261)
Rutgers 2-6 (148-298)
Texas-El Paso 2-6 (167-306)
Texas State 2-5 (168-285)
Virginia 2-6 (209-261)

Comments: Dino Babers old team certainly has hit the skids without him, (and the coaches he brought with him to SU). I think Iowa State will get themselves off this list by beating Kansas who, again appears to be the worst Power Five team. But the worst Power Five team might be better than the others on this list. I find it hard to believe than a normally solid program like Fresno State will wind up 1-11. Florida Atlantic and UMASS belong in FCS and their record may wind up showing that. Rice had to schedule Prairie View to get a win but they have a chance for another at FIU.