The Contenders- Week 12

[SWC75]

The last few years at this time in the college football season I’ve begun making weekly posts called “The Undefeated”, in which I gave detailed information about the remaining undefeated teams and they tried to stay in contention for first the BCS championships game and now the playoffs. Toward the end of the season, if it became apparent that we were going to have a one loss team in the playoff, I included information about them. The information was their record, their ranking, their points against ranked teams, (see that post), the remaining schedule, including the same information for each team.

I’ve decided to simply these posts by focusing on upcoming games against the teams most likely to knock them off and be contenders themselves. I won’t be providing all the stats about each team: just who they play and when that might be a big threat. I’m going to call it “The Contenders” instead of “The Undefeated”. I’m going to list each undefeated team ranked in the AP, (writer’s) top 25 and then each one loss team from any of the ‘power five’ conferences, (the ACC, The SEC, the Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12)or that continues to be ranked. There is virtually a 100% chance that all four playoff teams will come from this group. We’ve had one two loss team play for the title since the BCS started, (LSU 2007) and they are the only two loss national champion we’ve ever had. Then I’ll list the teams also on that list that they will be playing, when and where. That way we’ll be able to look forward to the big match-ups to come on the same page.

Update: I’ve decided that beginning November, (the month they’ll remember, per Coach Mac), that I would supply the same sort of specifics I’ve presented in past years for each one: the full schedule, the record, the point differential, the various rankings and appoints accumulated against ranked teams, (see my “Against Ranked Teams” post.) The rankings are the highest ranking in any of the major polls.

Undefeated teams:

ALABAMA 11-0 (443-125) ranked #1 / 181 points against ranked teams (PART)
11/26 Auburn 8-3 (375-157) ranked #13 / 93 PART.
They most likely would play Florida (8-2, 252-130, ranked #13/ 16 PART) in the conference title game.

Comments: Alabama will be favored to run the table. Florida has no passing game, (what would Steve Spurrier think?). The bigger threat could be their old pals at Auburn, who seemed to be coming on strong again until they lost to Georgia.


One loss teams:

CLEMSON 10-1 (424-197) ranked #3 / 46 PART
11/26 South Carolina 6-5 (224-242) 17 PART
They most likely would play Virginia Tech (8-3, 368-243, 40 PART) in the conference title game. They could be a formidable opponent if they are at their best.

MICHIGAN 10-1 (465-120) ranked #3 / 25 PART
11/26 at Ohio State 10-1 (482-143) ranked #2 / 117 PART
At this point Wisconsin (9-2, 311-147),ranked #5 122 PART) would be the most likely team to play them in the Big Ten title game – Nebraska (9-2, 311-233, ranked #15, 16 PART), has already lost to Wisconsin.

OHIO STATE 10-1 (482-143) ranked #2 / 117 PART
11/26 Michigan 10-1 (465-120) ranked #3 / 25 PART
If they win this game it still wouldn’t wrap up a spot in the Big Ten title game because Penn State, (9-2, 394-261, ranked #7 /27 PART) beat them and both teams have a 7-1 conference record. The Nittany Lions play Michigan State at home. The Spartans have come close to pulling off the upset against both Michigan and Ohio State and are still a dangerous team. Michigan beat Penn State 49-10, back when they were still bad..

WASHINGTON 10-1 (492-197) ranked #5 / 73 PART
11/25 at Washington State 8-3 (467-281) ranked #23 / 37 PART
If they win, they would be facing Colorado (9-2, 390-203, ranked #9 / 18 PART) in the conference title game if the Buffs get by Utah. If they don’t, it would be USC (8-3, 350-239, ranked #12 / 46 PART), who beat Colorado.

Comments: Will the Ohio State- Michigan loser still make the playoff over a 12-1 Washington team. I hope not. And what if Wisconsin or Penn State wins the Big Ten title? We can’t put three Big Ten teams in-can we? And Clemson still has some business to take care of.


Power Five 2 Loss teams:
Colorado 9-2 (390-203) ranked #9 / 18 PART
Florida 8-2 (252-130) ranked #13 / 16 PART
Louisville 9-2 (506-239) ranked #11 / 82 PART
Nebraska 9-2 (311-233) ranked #15 / 16 PART
Oklahoma 9-2 (498-336) ranked #7 / 40 PART
Oklahoma State 9-2 (444-299) ranked #10 / 55 PART
Penn State 9-2 (394-261) ranked #7 / 27 PART
West Virginia 8-2 (318-241) ranked #17 / 0 PART
Wisconsin 9-2 (311-147) ranked #5 / 122 PART

Comments: Louisville blew any chance at a playoff spot with their terrible performance against Houston. At least the failure of James Quick to get that first down vs. Clemson doesn’t matter anymore. On the other hand, Colorado, Florida, Oklahoma, Penn State and Wisconsin could all win conference championships, which would put them back in the mix. (With 8 teams, all the power conference champions could get in. Just sayin’.)

 

[SWC75]

THE PESCI BOWL

Besides keeping track of the current contenders for the college football play, for the last couple of years I have been imagining something I call the Pesci Bowl- a bowl game between the two best teams who were unable to make the playoff besides excellent records because their schedules were not considered “big time”. In current parlance, that would mean teams that aren’t in the “Power Five” conferences. (For my estimation of who might have played in previous “Pesci Bowls” – see below). I’ve named the fictional event after actor Joe Pesci, a vertically challenged but feisty actor we’ve seen in many films, especially “Goodfellas” and “Casino”.

I’ve listed the non-Power Five teams with no or one loss with the teams they have left to play on their schedules that are also on the list. The rankings are the highest ranking in any of the major polls. ‘Points’ against ranked teams are from my week “Against Ranked Teams” post.

BOISE STATE 10-1 (365-220) ranked 19th / 0 Points Against Ranked Teams (PART)
11/25 at Air Force 8-3 (385-300) / 0 PART
Wyoming beat San Diego State and so, despite three losses, they will win the division if they beat New Mexico

WESTERN MICHIGAN 11-0 (482-195) ranked 14th / 0 PART
11/25 Toledo 9-2 (431-248) / 0 PART
Barring upsets they will play Ohio U. (7-4, 313-257, 2 PART) in the MAC title game.

2-loss teams:

Houston 9-2 (412-223) ranked #18 / 47 PART
Navy 8-2 (384-300) ranked #25 / 26 PART
San Diego State 9-2 (401-186) 0 PART
South Florida 9-2 (475-341) 11 PART
Toledo 9-2 (431-248) 0 PART
Troy 8-2 (346-229) 0 PART

Comments: I think Western Michigan will run the table, (although Toledo may have something to say about that), and be in the PESCI bowl. Their opponent will likely be Boise State if they beat Air Force as they may not have to put their record on the line in the conference title game. But if Air Force beat them it opens it up for the other two loss teams and I’d likely choose Houston instead.

 

[SWC75]

THE TY-DEE BOWL

For the last few years I’ve had a fantasy about having the two worst teams in the country play in a bowl game to see who is the worst of the worst, (among major teams). It’s kind of mean-spirted and they might say no – but it could be quite a hard fought and entertaining game and maybe the schools might need the money – and have a desire to prove that they aren’t the worst by beating a team they might actually be able to beat. Here are all the FBS teams that are currently winless and those who currently have one loss and their upcoming games against each other. (I call it the Ty-Dee Bowl after the toilet cleaning product.)


There are no winless teams


The one win teams:

FRESNO STATE 1-10 (198-355)
11/26 San Jose State 3-8 (277-402)

Two win teams:

Arizona 2-9 (241-425) 10 Points Against Ranked Teams (PART)
Buffalo 2-9 (179-361)
Kansas 2-9 (212-414)
Massachusetts 2-9 (240-380)
Rutgers 2-9 (175-419)
Texas State 2-8 (202-417)
Virginia 2-9 (260-343) 16 PART

Comments: Fresno continues to disappoint but they still have one good shot at getting that second win. The two win team with the worst point differential is currently our old friends, Rutgers, at -244. Texas State is second with -215. Fresno is only -157 so a second win would get them off the bubble.