The Contenders: Week 8

[SWC75]

The College Football Playoff

The last few years at this time in the college football season I’ve begun making weekly posts called “The Undefeated”, in which I gave detailed information about the remaining undefeated teams and they tried to stay in contention for first the BCS championships game and now the playoffs. Toward the end of the season, if it became apparent that we were going to have a one loss team in the playoff, I included information about them. The information was their record, their ranking, their points against ranked teams, (see that post), the remaining schedule, including the same information for each team.

I’ve decided to simply these posts by focusing on upcoming games against the teams most likely to knock them off and be contenders themselves. I won’t be providing all the stats about each team: just who they play and when that might be a big threat. I’m going to call it “The Contenders” instead of “The Undefeated”. I’m going to list each undefeated team ranked in the AP, (writer’s) top 25 and then each one loss team from any of the ‘power five’ conferences, (the ACC, The SEC, the Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12)or that continues to be ranked. There is virtually a 100% chance that all four playoff teams will come from this group. We’ve had one two loss team play for the title since the BCS started, (LSU 2007) and they are the only two loss national champion we’ve ever had. Then I’ll list the teams also on that list that they will be playing, when and where. That way we’ll be able to look forward to the big match-ups to come on the same page.

Undefeated teams:

ALABAMA is 8-0 and will be playing:
They could play Florida (5-1) in the conference title game.

BAYLOR is 6-0 and will be playing:
West Virginia (6-0) on 12/3 at home
The Big 12 has no title game.

BOISE STATE is 7-0 and will be playing:
They could play San Diego State (6-1) in the Mountain West title game.

CLEMSON is 7-0 and will be playing no one on this list the rest of the way, (everybody in the Coastal Division has 2 losses)

MICHIGAN is 7-0 and will be playing:
At Ohio State (6-1) on 11/26
Again, Nebraska is the only team they might play in the conference title game with less than 2 losses.

NEBRASKA is 7-0 and will be playing:
At Ohio State (6-1) on 11/5
They could have a rematch with the Buckeyes or a game with Michigan (7-0) in the Big Ten title game.

WASHINGTON is 7-0 and will be playing:
At Utah (7-1) on 10/29
The Utes are the only team in the Pac 12 South with less than 2 losses.

WEST VIRGINIA is 6-0 and will be playing:
At Baylor (6-0) on 12/3
See above

Comments: Alabama will be favored to run the table. Florida hasn’t really beaten anybody good yet. The real threat is their old pals at Auburn (5-2), who seem to be coming on strong again. Everybody else seems to have at most one major hurdle, although a couple could have rematches in conference title games. Baylor-West Virginia and Michigan-Nebraska would be the only confrontations between undefeated teams that are possible before the bowls. Could we have an all undefeated Final Four?


One loss teams:

FLORIDA is 5-1 and will be playing:
They could play Alabama (8-0) or Texas A&M (6-1) in the SEC title game.

LOUISVILLE is 6-1 and will be playing no one on this list.

OHIO STATE is 6-1 and will be playing:
Nebraska (7-0) on 11/5 at home
Michigan (7-0) on 11/26
Nebraska is the only team they could face in the Big ten title game that might still be on this list.

TEXAS A&M is 6-1 and will be playing:
They could play Florida (5-1) in the SEC title game.

UTAH is 7-1 and will be playing:
Washington (7-0) on 10/29 at home
They could have a rematch in the Pac 12 title game

Comment: Ohio State will be in the playoff if they run the table but they aren’t looking like a team that could do that right now. Louisville is. They are hoping that less than four unbeaten are left standing at the end. Could they wedge their way into the playoff over an unbeaten team?

 

[SWC75]

The Pesci Bowl

Besides keeping track of the current contenders for the college football play, for the last couple of years I have been imagining something I call the Pesci Bowl- a bowl game between the two best teams who were unable to make the playoff besides excellent records because their schedules were not considered “big time”. In current parlance, that would mean teams that aren’t in the “Power Five” conferences. (For my estimation of who might have played in previous “Pesci Bowls” – see below). I’ve named the fictional event after actor Joe Pesci, a vertically challenged but feisty actor we’ve seen in many films, especially “Goodfellas” and “Casino”.

I’ve listed the non-power Five teams with no or one loss with the teams they have left to play on their schedules that are also on the list.

BOISE STATE is 7-0 and will be playing no one on this list the rest of the way

WESTERN MICHIGAN is 8-0 and will be playing:
Toledo (6-1) on 11/25 at home

NAVY is 5-1 and will be playing no one on this list

TOLEDO is 6-1 and will be playing:
At Western Michigan (8-0) on 11/25

SAN DIEGO STATE is 6-1 and will be playing no one on this list.

TROY is 6-1 and will be playing no one on this list.

Comments: This would seem to come down to the Western Michigan-Toledo game. If WMU wins, they will likely be in the Pesci Bowl vs. Boise State. If Toledo wins, they go into a mix with Navy and Sand Diego State,. Any of those would be picked above Troy if they had the same record.

 

[SWC75]

The Ty-Dee Bowl

For the last few years I’ve had a fantasy about having the two worst teams in the country play in a bowl game to see who is the worst of the worst, (among major teams). It’s kind of mean-spirted and they might say no – but it could be quite a hard fought and entertaining game and maybe the schools might need the money – and have a desire to prove that they aren’t the worst by beating a team they might actually be able to beat. Here are all the FBS teams that are currently winless and those who currently have one loss and their upcoming games against each other. (I call it the Ty-Dee Bowl after the toilet cleaning product.)

There are no winless teams

The one win teams:

BOWLING GREEN is 1-6 and they will be playing:
Buffalo (1-6) on 11/25 at home

BUFFALO is 1-6 and will be playing:
At Bowling Green (1-6) on 11/25

FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 1-6 and will be playing:
At Rice (1-6) on 11/5

FRESNO STATE is 1-7 and they will be playing no one on this list.

IOWA STATE is 1-6 and they will be playing:
At Kansas (1-6) on 11/12

KANSAS is 1-6 and will be playing:
At Iowa State (1-6) on 11/12

MASSACHUSETTS is 1-7 and they will be playing:
(They will play FCS Wagner on 10/29)

RICE is 1-6 and will be playing:
Florida Atlantic (1-6) on 11/5 at home

Comments: Dino Babers old team certainly has hit the skids without him, (and the coaches he brought with him to SU). The loser of their game with Buffalo may wind up in the Ty-Dee Bowl. I think Iowa State will get themselves off this list by beating Kansas who, again appears to be the worst Power Five team. But the worst Power Five team might be better than the others on this list. I find it hard to believe than a normally solid program like Fresno State will wind up 1-11. Florida Atlantic and UMASS belong in FCS and their record may wind up showing that. Rice had to schedule Prairie View to get a win but they have a chance for another at FIU.

 

[SmilinBob]

2/3rds done and a l0t of fun left to be had regarding this playoff.