The Ides of March

[SWC75]

It’s well known that Syracuse, in the Jim Boeheim Era, has a good record in the early rounds of the NCAA tournament, (I didn’t say perfect!) and a very good record from the Eilte 8 onward but a poor record in the Sweet 16. SU’s 5-11 record at that level has prevented some pretty good teams from moving on to the later rounds of the tournament and getting us more Final Four teams than the three we have had, (in the JB Era), and perhaps more than the one national championship we have.

I decided to look at other top schools so see how consistent they are at every round, (one would expect the winning percentage to start high and go down somewhat at each level in an orderly progression) or if other schools have mysterious “roadblocks” as well. I also decided to keep track of how many of their losses were upsets according to seedings, (which began in 1979) or rankings, (for before that and the Final Four). The following schools have been to at least 3 Finals Fours since 1977. (The tournament introduced the Round of 64 with byes in 1979 and went to 64 teams in 1985, so the total wins in the round of 64 will not necessarily equal the total games in the round of 32.)

DUKE
23-3 (.885) in the Round of 64, 22-6 (.786) in the Round of 32, 14-8 (.636) in the Sweet 16, 12-2 (.857) in the Elite 8, 9-3 (.750) in the Final Four, 4-5 (.444) in the title game. Total: 84-27, (.757) with 21 upset losses, (77.7% of their losses). Highly successful but it’s interesting that their worst record is in the Sweet 16. They have so many upsets because they are almost always favored. They are almost always favored because of their strong regular seasons, which also give them consistently high seeds. In 28 appearances, (since 1977), they’ve been to 12 Final Fours and won 4 championships.

NORTH CAROLINA
24-1 (.960) in the Round of 64, 22-8 (.733) in the Round of 32, 19-3 (.864) in the Sweet 16, 12-7 (.632) in the Elite 8, 6-6 (.500) in the Final Four, 4-2 (.667) in the title game. Total: 87-27, (.763) with 18 upset losses, (66.7% of their losses). They’ve had some trouble in the Round of 32 the Elite 8 but the only real road-block is the national semi-finals. We’d like to have their problems but if we did, that’s what we’d probably be complaining about. They have also been to 12 Final Fours and won 4 titles in 31 appearances.

KANSAS
26-2 (.929) in the round of 64, 19-8 (.704) in the round of 32, 12-7 (.632) in the Sweet 16, 8-4 (.667) in the Elite 8, 5-3 (.625) in the Final Four, 2-3 (.400) in the title game. Total: 72-27 (.727) with 17 upset losses, (63.0% of their losses). They’ve gotten off to great starts just like Duke and UNC but have struggled somewhat more in the next two rounds. They’ve been to 8 Final Fours and won 2 titles in 27 appearances.

KENTUCKY
22-3 (.880) in the round of 64, 22-6 (.786) in the round of 32, 17-5 (.773) in the Sweet 16, 8-9 (.471) in the Elite 8, 5-3 (.625) in the Final Four, 4-1 (.800) in the title game. Total: 78-27 (.743) with 17 upset losses, (63.0% of their losses). The Cats have aced the Sweet 16 but hit the wall in the regional finals. But they have a great record in the title game. They’ve been to 8 Final Fours and won 4 titles in 28 appearances.

MICHIGAN STATE
14-6 (.700) in the round of 64, 12-4 (.750) in the round of 32, 7-5 (.583) in the Sweet 16, 5-2 (.471) in the Elite 8, 2-3 (.400) in the Final Four, 1-1 (.500) in the title game. Total: 41-21 (.661) with 7 upset losses, (33.3% of their losses). The Spartans have been vulnerable early, (four of those first round losses have been under Tom Izzo’s watch, despite his supposedly making his team bullet-proof with the tough early schedule: I guess he forgot to schedule the sort of teams he’ll play in the first round). They’ve also struggled somewhat in the Sweet 16. They’ve been great at getting to the Final Four but not great when they got there. If we could have held onto that lead in 2000, would Izzo’s reputation be so formidable. The Spartans have been to 7 Final Fours but won only one title in 21 appearances.

LOUISVILLE
16-6 (.727) in the round of 64, 17-6 (.739) in the round of 32, 9-8 (.529) in the Sweet 16, 6-3 (.667) in the Elite 8, 2-4 (.333) in the Final Four, 2-0 (1.000) in the title game. Total: 52-27 (.658) with 7 upset losses, (25.9% of their losses). The Cardinals have also had some trouble in the Sweet 16. They do a good job of getting to the Final Four but have trouble getting past the semi-finals. Their two national championships are the only times they’ve played for the crown in the Boeheim Era and the last one of those was 27 years ago. Rick Pitino has gone out in the first round three times since he came there. The Cardinals have been to 6 Final Fours and won 2 titles in 26 appearances.

UCLA
17-5 (.773) in the round of 64, 15-7 (.682) in the round of 32, 8-7 (.533) in the Sweet 16, 5-3 (.625) in the Elite 8, 3-2 (.600) in the Final Four, 1-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 49-26 (.653) with 13 upset losses, (50.0% of their losses). The Bruins are still another team that’s been tripped up several times in the Sweet 16, although they’ve done OK in the other rounds. The Bruins have been to 5 Finals Fours and won 1 title in 26 appearances.

ARIZONA
16-11 (.593) in the round of 64, 13-3 (.8125) in the round of 32, 8-5 (.615) in the Sweet 16, 4-4 (.500) in the Elite 8, 2-2 (.500) in the Final Four, 1-1 (.500) in the title game. Total: 44-26 (.629) with 12 upset losses, (46.2% of their losses). The Wildcats are pretty tame in the first round but blitz the second round. From the Elite 8 on, they are a .500 team but that’s pretty good at that level. They’ve been to 4 Final Fours and won 1 title in 26 appearances.

ARKANSAS
13-6 (.684) in the round of 64, 10-9 (.526) in the round of 32, 6-4 (.600) in the Sweet 16, 4-2 (.667) in the Elite 8, 2-2 (.500) in the Final Four, 1-1 (.500) in the title game. Total: 36-24 (.600) with 7 upset losses, (29.2% of their losses). The Razorbacks have stumbled in the second round a lot but been pretty consistent afterwards. They have been to 4 Final Fours and won 1 title in 25 appearances.

CONNECTICUT
16-2 (.889) in the round of 64, 13-4 (.765) in the round of 32, 9-4 (.692) in the Sweet 16, 4-5 (.444) in the Elite 8, 3-1 (.750) in the Final Four, 3-0 (1.000) in the title game. Total: 48-16 (.750) with 7 upset losses, (43.8% of their losses). The Huskies got a late start with only one NCAA appearance from 1977-89. They have been extremely strong since then. Their stumbling point is the Elite 8. They’ve been to 4 Final Fours and won 3 titles in only 17 appearances. Both they and the Orange have played for the national title three times. We’ve faced two one seeds and a two seed, played three close games and won one, (should have won another). Connecticut faced a one seed, a four seed and an eight seed and won all three.

FLORIDA
12-5 (.706) in the round of 64, 8-4 (.667) in the round of 32, 6-2 (.750) in the Sweet 16, 4-2 (.667) in the Elite 8, 3-1 (.750) in the Final Four, 2-1 (.667) in the title game. Total: 35-15 (.700) with 8 upset losses, (53.3% of their losses). Amazingly the Gators had never been to the NCAA tournament until we beat them in 1987. There isn’t any round of the tournament they’ve had unusual trouble in, although they’ve done better in the Sweet 16 than the round of 32. They have been to 4 Final Fours and won 2 titles in only 14 appearances.

GEORGETOWN
20-4 (.833) in the round of 64, 11-10 (.524) in the round of 32, 8-3 (.727) in the Sweet 16, 4-4 (.500) in the Elite 8, 3-1 (.750) in the Final Four, 1-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 47-24 (.662) with 12 upset losses, (50.0% of their losses). The Hoyas should have gotten more than one national title when they are at the height of their power back in the 80’s. They nearly came away with three and that number would have better represented how strong they were at that time. They have a poor record in the round of 32. They’ve had 4 Final Fours and 1 title in 25 appearances.

INDIANA
15-9 (.625) in the round of 64, 13-6 (.684) in the round of 32, 6-7 (.462) in the Sweet 16, 4-2 (.667) in the Elite 8, 3-1 (.750) in the Final Four, 2-1 (1.000) in the title game. Total: 43-26 (.623) with 16 upset losses, (61.5% of their losses). They’ve got a championship that would have gone to us if we’d made a couple of free throws, one of five in their entire history. But they’ve also been knocked out in the first round a lot more than you’d think. And they, like us, have a losing record in the Sweet 16. They have 4 Final Fours and 2 titles in 27 appearances.

UNLV
11-5 (.688) in the round of 64, 8-5 (.583) in the round of 32, 5-3 (.625) in the Sweet 16, 4-1(.800) in the Elite 8, 1-3 (.250) in the Final Four, 1-0 (1.000) in the title game. Total: 30-17 (.651) with 9 upset losses, (52.9% of their losses). The Rebels have had trouble in the second round and not done well in the national semi-finals. They have been to 4 Final Fours and won 1 title in only 14 appearances.

HOUSTON
3-5 (.375) in the round of 64, 3-0 (1.000) in the round of 32, 3-0 (1.000) in the Sweet 16,3-0 (1.000) in the Elite 8, 2-1 (.667) in the Final Four, 0-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 14-8 (.636) with 3 upset losses, (37.5% of their losses). The Cougars have an amazing record: 5 first round losses and 3 Final Fours. The difference was Hakeem Olajuwon. I still think of them as a basketball power after the Elvin Hayes and Olajuwon eras but they haven’t been in the tournament in 21 years. Only 8 appearances since 1977 with 3 Final Fours but no titles, thanks to Lorenzo Charles.

LOUISIANA STATE
9-6 (.600) in the round of 64, 7-3 (.700) in the round of 32, 5-2 (.714) in the Sweet 16, 3-2(.600) in the Elite 8, 0-3 (.000) in the Final Four,0-0 (.000) in the title game. Total: 24-16 (.600) with 9 upset losses, (56.25% of their losses). The Tigers have managed to make it to three Final Fours but have always lost in the semis in 18 appearances.

MICHIGAN
12-3 (.800) in the round of 64, 6-7 (.600) in the round of 32, 5-1 (.833) in the Sweet 16, 3-2(.600) in the Elite 8, 3-0 (1.000) in the Final Four, 1-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 30-15 (.667) with 7 upset losses, (46.7% of their losses). The Wolverines have had trouble in the Round of 32 and that has limited their appearances in the later rounds. But they’ve made it to 3 Final Fours and won a title in 14 appearances. They’ve traditionally alternated being a power with Michigan State. They are both good now and it will be interesting to see how long that lasts.

OHIO STATE
12-3 (.800) in the round of 64, 9-6 (.600) in the round of 32, 4-5 (.625) in the Sweet 16, 3-1 (.750) in the Elite 8, 1-2 (.333) in the Final Four, 0-1 (.000) in the title game. Total: 29-18 (.617) with 10 upset losses, (55.6% of their losses). The Buckeyes struggle to get out of the second and third rounds but have been successful in the Elite 8, (but if we’d had Fab Melo…). 3 Final Fours and 0 titles in 15 appearances.

OKLAHOMA STATE
12-4 (.750) in the round of 64, 6-6 (.500) in the round of 32, 3-3 (.500) in the Sweet 16, 2-1(.667) in the Elite 8, 0-2 (.000) in the Final Four, 0-0 (.000) in the title game. Total: 23-16 (.589) with 9 upset losses, (56.25% of their losses). The Cowboys do pretty well in the first round but are the definition of a .5000 after that. Three Final Four appearances but no titles in 15 appearances.

SYRACUSE
20-4 (.833) in the round of 64, 16-9 (.640) in the round of 32, 5-11 (.313) in the Sweet 16, 3-2(.600) in the Elite 8, 3-0 (1.000) in the Final Four, 1-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 48-28 (.632) with 17 upset losses, (60.7% of their losses). We do pretty well in the first two round but “hit the wall” in the Sweet 16. They we do well after that, going 7-4 with two close losses in the title game. We have more wins than any team with 3-4 Final Fours except Connecticut. Only Duke and North Carolina have been upset more but they have more appearances and far more wins, Final Fours and National Championships than we do. But you have to be highly rated, (and not necessarily overrated) to be upset. And you don’t want to play us in the National Semi-Finals. I would have loved for us to have played a 1 seed, a 4 seed and an 8 seed for the National Championship, as UCONN did. But we went 1-1-2 and 1-2.

Totally, these 20 teams are 313-93 in the round of 64, (.771), 252-116, (remember there were byes in the round of 64 before 1985) in the round of 32, (.684), 159-93 in the Sweet 16, (.631), 101-58 in the Elite 8, (.635), 58-43 in the Final Four, (.574) and 31-27 in title games, (.534). They have a total of 219 upsets, 11 per team. We have done better than these percentages in the round of 64 and national semi-finals. It’s interesting that the overall winning percentage of the 20 teams in the Sweet 16 is less than that of the Elite 8. Only Houston has a losing record in the first round, (and only two of their five losses were upsets). Only Michigan and Oklahoma State failed to have a winning record in the second round, (and only 5 of their 13 losses were upsets). Only Indiana, Ohio State and Syracuse have losing records in the Sweet 16 but the other two are 10-12 with 9 upsets. We are 5-11 with 7 upsets. Arizona (7-7) and Ohio State (3-3) have even records from the Elite 8 onward and LSU (3-5) and Oklahoma State (2-3) have losing records after the Sweet 16. None on this least seems to have a barrier between them and ultimate success the equal of what we have faced in the Sweet 16.

 

[ROCorange]

Wow that took so long to read i cant even imagine how long it took to research. thanks as always for your contributions to the board. loved the analysis

 

[Shenexon]

Wonderful analysis. It's greatly appreciated. Perhaps it's telling that the only schools with an overall record above .700 are Duke, UNC, Kansas, Kentucky, UConn, & Florida.

 

[earlfromclay]

Thanks for time spent putting that together. I will preface this by saying that I'm not a JB hater, nor am I a JB lover. more like a JB tolerater.
While reading through your analysis I kept hoping to find a similar roadblock for other teams, hoping that it just wasnt an SU thing. But sadly, it appears your research has just proven what was postulated, in that JB sucks in the sweet 16. No other team has a remotely similar horrible winning percentage in any given round of the tourney. Not even close. The other take away from the numbers is the 'upset' percentage by SU is comparable only to teams that are regularly seeded very high, and as you noted are technically almost always an upset when they lose.

 

[strumpfasaurus]

Would you say that Boeheim's struggle in the Sweet 16 versus the first and second round because the team has a week to prepare for the zone?

 

[earlfromclay]

i always thought that too. but how would you exlain the 3-0 record in the final four? teams have week to prepare for that game.

 

[jgeorge322]

I tend not to think of jb sucking but rather An anomaly. These things happen. The guy has coached more than a thousand games. Taking a subset of 18 isn't a large enough sample set to say much of anything IMHO.

 

[bpo57]

Are you serious about questioning Izzo's record? Six Final Fours in the last 14 years. 15 consecutive NCAA tournament invites. A career record of .725 in the NCAA tournament- I believe that's the best amongst active coaches. And it ain't like he's got Mickey D AAs wandering up to East Lansing every year. For my money he's the best coach in the country.

 

[Col. Bleep]

C'mon...no figures on the average margins of victory and loss??

Wow...seriously...that's a lot of work you put in!
Do you accept outside research requests?

 

[SWC75]

C'mon...no figures on the average margins of victory and loss??

Wow...seriously...that's a lot of work you put in!
Do you accept outside research requests?

Not really. You need motivation and you have more of it if it's your idea. Otherwise it would seem too much like work and I'm happily retired.

 

[SWC75]

Are you serious about questioning Izzo's record? Six Final Fours in the last 14 years. 15 consecutive NCAA tournament invites. A career record of .725 in the NCAA tournament- I believe that's the best amongst active coaches. And it ain't like he's got Mickey D AAs wandering up to East Lansing every year. For my money he's the best coach in the country.

Izzo has had great success but he's also gone out in the first round several times. There's no magic formula for success.

 

[Eric15]

It’s well known that Syracuse, in the Jim Boeheim Era, has a good record in the early rounds of the NCAA tournament, (I didn’t say perfect!) and a very good record from the Eilte 8 onward but a poor record in the Sweet 16. SU’s 5-11 record at that level has prevented some pretty good teams from moving on to the later rounds of the tournament and getting us more Final Four teams than the three we have had, (in the JB Era), and perhaps more than the one national championship we have.

I decided to look at other top schools so see how consistent they are at every round, (one would expect the winning percentage to start high and go down somewhat at each level in an orderly progression) or if other schools have mysterious “roadblocks” as well. I also decided to keep track of how many of their losses were upsets according to seedings, (which began in 1979) or rankings, (for before that and the Final Four). The following schools have been to at least 3 Finals Fours since 1977. (The tournament introduced the Round of 64 with byes in 1979 and went to 64 teams in 1985, so the total wins in the round of 64 will not necessarily equal the total games in the round of 32.)

DUKE
23-3 (.885) in the Round of 64, 22-6 (.786) in the Round of 32, 14-8 (.636) in the Sweet 16, 12-2 (.857) in the Elite 8, 9-3 (.750) in the Final Four, 4-5 (.444) in the title game. Total: 84-27, (.757) with 21 upset losses, (77.7% of their losses). Highly successful but it’s interesting that their worst record is in the Sweet 16. They have so many upsets because they are almost always favored. They are almost always favored because of their strong regular seasons, which also give them consistently high seeds. In 28 appearances, (since 1977), they’ve been to 12 Final Fours and won 4 championships.

NORTH CAROLINA
24-1 (.960) in the Round of 64, 22-8 (.733) in the Round of 32, 19-3 (.864) in the Sweet 16, 12-7 (.632) in the Elite 8, 6-6 (.500) in the Final Four, 4-2 (.667) in the title game. Total: 87-27, (.763) with 18 upset losses, (66.7% of their losses). They’ve had some trouble in the Round of 32 the Elite 8 but the only real road-block is the national semi-finals. We’d like to have their problems but if we did, that’s what we’d probably be complaining about. They have also been to 12 Final Fours and won 4 titles in 31 appearances.

KANSAS
26-2 (.929) in the round of 64, 19-8 (.704) in the round of 32, 12-7 (.632) in the Sweet 16, 8-4 (.667) in the Elite 8, 5-3 (.625) in the Final Four, 2-3 (.400) in the title game. Total: 72-27 (.727) with 17 upset losses, (63.0% of their losses). They’ve gotten off to great starts just like Duke and UNC but have struggled somewhat more in the next two rounds. They’ve been to 8 Final Fours and won 2 titles in 27 appearances.

KENTUCKY
22-3 (.880) in the round of 64, 22-6 (.786) in the round of 32, 17-5 (.773) in the Sweet 16, 8-9 (.471) in the Elite 8, 5-3 (.625) in the Final Four, 4-1 (.800) in the title game. Total: 78-27 (.743) with 17 upset losses, (63.0% of their losses). The Cats have aced the Sweet 16 but hit the wall in the regional finals. But they have a great record in the title game. They’ve been to 8 Final Fours and won 4 titles in 28 appearances.

MICHIGAN STATE
14-6 (.700) in the round of 64, 12-4 (.750) in the round of 32, 7-5 (.583) in the Sweet 16, 5-2 (.471) in the Elite 8, 2-3 (.400) in the Final Four, 1-1 (.500) in the title game. Total: 41-21 (.661) with 7 upset losses, (33.3% of their losses). The Spartans have been vulnerable early, (four of those first round losses have been under Tom Izzo’s watch, despite his supposedly making his team bullet-proof with the tough early schedule: I guess he forgot to schedule the sort of teams he’ll play in the first round). They’ve also struggled somewhat in the Sweet 16. They’ve been great at getting to the Final Four but not great when they got there. If we could have held onto that lead in 2000, would Izzo’s reputation be so formidable. The Spartans have been to 7 Final Fours but won only one title in 21 appearances.

LOUISVILLE
16-6 (.727) in the round of 64, 17-6 (.739) in the round of 32, 9-8 (.529) in the Sweet 16, 6-3 (.667) in the Elite 8, 2-4 (.333) in the Final Four, 2-0 (1.000) in the title game. Total: 52-27 (.658) with 7 upset losses, (25.9% of their losses). The Cardinals have also had some trouble in the Sweet 16. They do a good job of getting to the Final Four but have trouble getting past the semi-finals. Their two national championships are the only times they’ve played for the crown in the Boeheim Era and the last one of those was 27 years ago. Rick Pitino has gone out in the first round three times since he came there. The Cardinals have been to 6 Final Fours and won 2 titles in 26 appearances.

UCLA
17-5 (.773) in the round of 64, 15-7 (.682) in the round of 32, 8-7 (.533) in the Sweet 16, 5-3 (.625) in the Elite 8, 3-2 (.600) in the Final Four, 1-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 49-26 (.653) with 13 upset losses, (50.0% of their losses). The Bruins are still another team that’s been tripped up several times in the Sweet 16, although they’ve done OK in the other rounds. The Bruins have been to 5 Finals Fours and won 1 title in 26 appearances.

ARIZONA
16-11 (.593) in the round of 64, 13-3 (.8125) in the round of 32, 8-5 (.615) in the Sweet 16, 4-4 (.500) in the Elite 8, 2-2 (.500) in the Final Four, 1-1 (.500) in the title game. Total: 44-26 (.629) with 12 upset losses, (46.2% of their losses). The Wildcats are pretty tame in the first round but blitz the second round. From the Elite 8 on, they are a .500 team but that’s pretty good at that level. They’ve been to 4 Final Fours and won 1 title in 26 appearances.

ARKANSAS
13-6 (.684) in the round of 64, 10-9 (.526) in the round of 32, 6-4 (.600) in the Sweet 16, 4-2 (.667) in the Elite 8, 2-2 (.500) in the Final Four, 1-1 (.500) in the title game. Total: 36-24 (.600) with 7 upset losses, (29.2% of their losses). The Razorbacks have stumbled in the second round a lot but been pretty consistent afterwards. They have been to 4 Final Fours and won 1 title in 25 appearances.

CONNECTICUT
16-2 (.889) in the round of 64, 13-4 (.765) in the round of 32, 9-4 (.692) in the Sweet 16, 4-5 (.444) in the Elite 8, 3-1 (.750) in the Final Four, 3-0 (1.000) in the title game. Total: 48-16 (.750) with 7 upset losses, (43.8% of their losses). The Huskies got a late start with only one NCAA appearance from 1977-89. They have been extremely strong since then. Their stumbling point is the Elite 8. They’ve been to 4 Final Fours and won 3 titles in only 17 appearances. Both they and the Orange have played for the national title three times. We’ve faced two one seeds and a two seed, played three close games and won one, (should have won another). Connecticut faced a one seed, a four seed and an eight seed and won all three.

FLORIDA
12-5 (.706) in the round of 64, 8-4 (.667) in the round of 32, 6-2 (.750) in the Sweet 16, 4-2 (.667) in the Elite 8, 3-1 (.750) in the Final Four, 2-1 (.667) in the title game. Total: 35-15 (.700) with 8 upset losses, (53.3% of their losses). Amazingly the Gators had never been to the NCAA tournament until we beat them in 1987. There isn’t any round of the tournament they’ve had unusual trouble in, although they’ve done better in the Sweet 16 than the round of 32. They have been to 4 Final Fours and won 2 titles in only 14 appearances.

GEORGETOWN
20-4 (.833) in the round of 64, 11-10 (.524) in the round of 32, 8-3 (.727) in the Sweet 16, 4-4 (.500) in the Elite 8, 3-1 (.750) in the Final Four, 1-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 47-24 (.662) with 12 upset losses, (50.0% of their losses). The Hoyas should have gotten more than one national title when they are at the height of their power back in the 80’s. They nearly came away with three and that number would have better represented how strong they were at that time. They have a poor record in the round of 32. They’ve had 4 Final Fours and 1 title in 25 appearances.

INDIANA
15-9 (.625) in the round of 64, 13-6 (.684) in the round of 32, 6-7 (.462) in the Sweet 16, 4-2 (.667) in the Elite 8, 3-1 (.750) in the Final Four, 2-1 (1.000) in the title game. Total: 43-26 (.623) with 16 upset losses, (61.5% of their losses). They’ve got a championship that would have gone to us if we’d made a couple of free throws, one of five in their entire history. But they’ve also been knocked out in the first round a lot more than you’d think. And they, like us, have a losing record in the Sweet 16. They have 4 Final Fours and 2 titles in 27 appearances.

UNLV
11-5 (.688) in the round of 64, 8-5 (.583) in the round of 32, 5-3 (.625) in the Sweet 16, 4-1(.800) in the Elite 8, 1-3 (.250) in the Final Four, 1-0 (1.000) in the title game. Total: 30-17 (.651) with 9 upset losses, (52.9% of their losses). The Rebels have had trouble in the second round and not done well in the national semi-finals. They have been to 4 Final Fours and won 1 title in only 14 appearances.

HOUSTON
3-5 (.375) in the round of 64, 3-0 (1.000) in the round of 32, 3-0 (1.000) in the Sweet 16,3-0 (1.000) in the Elite 8, 2-1 (.667) in the Final Four, 0-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 14-8 (.636) with 3 upset losses, (37.5% of their losses). The Cougars have an amazing record: 5 first round losses and 3 Final Fours. The difference was Hakeem Olajuwon. I still think of them as a basketball power after the Elvin Hayes and Olajuwon eras but they haven’t been in the tournament in 21 years. Only 8 appearances since 1977 with 3 Final Fours but no titles, thanks to Lorenzo Charles.

LOUISIANA STATE
9-6 (.600) in the round of 64, 7-3 (.700) in the round of 32, 5-2 (.714) in the Sweet 16, 3-2(.600) in the Elite 8, 0-3 (.000) in the Final Four,0-0 (.000) in the title game. Total: 24-16 (.600) with 9 upset losses, (56.25% of their losses). The Tigers have managed to make it to three Final Fours but have always lost in the semis in 18 appearances.

MICHIGAN
12-3 (.800) in the round of 64, 6-7 (.600) in the round of 32, 5-1 (.833) in the Sweet 16, 3-2(.600) in the Elite 8, 3-0 (1.000) in the Final Four, 1-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 30-15 (.667) with 7 upset losses, (46.7% of their losses). The Wolverines have had trouble in the Round of 32 and that has limited their appearances in the later rounds. But they’ve made it to 3 Final Fours and won a title in 14 appearances. They’ve traditionally alternated being a power with Michigan State. They are both good now and it will be interesting to see how long that lasts.

OHIO STATE
12-3 (.800) in the round of 64, 9-6 (.600) in the round of 32, 4-5 (.625) in the Sweet 16, 3-1 (.750) in the Elite 8, 1-2 (.333) in the Final Four, 0-1 (.000) in the title game. Total: 29-18 (.617) with 10 upset losses, (55.6% of their losses). The Buckeyes struggle to get out of the second and third rounds but have been successful in the Elite 8, (but if we’d had Fab Melo…). 3 Final Fours and 0 titles in 15 appearances.

OKLAHOMA STATE
12-4 (.750) in the round of 64, 6-6 (.500) in the round of 32, 3-3 (.500) in the Sweet 16, 2-1(.667) in the Elite 8, 0-2 (.000) in the Final Four, 0-0 (.000) in the title game. Total: 23-16 (.589) with 9 upset losses, (56.25% of their losses). The Cowboys do pretty well in the first round but are the definition of a .5000 after that. Three Final Four appearances but no titles in 15 appearances.

SYRACUSE
20-4 (.833) in the round of 64, 16-9 (.640) in the round of 32, 5-11 (.313) in the Sweet 16, 3-2(.600) in the Elite 8, 3-0 (1.000) in the Final Four, 1-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 48-28 (.632) with 17 upset losses, (60.7% of their losses). We do pretty well in the first two round but “hit the wall” in the Sweet 16. They we do well after that, going 7-4 with two close losses in the title game. We have more wins than any team with 3-4 Final Fours except Connecticut. Only Duke and North Carolina have been upset more but they have more appearances and far more wins, Final Fours and National Championships than we do. But you have to be highly rated, (and not necessarily overrated) to be upset. And you don’t want to play us in the National Semi-Finals. I would have loved for us to have played a 1 seed, a 4 seed and an 8 seed for the National Championship, as UCONN did. But we went 1-1-2 and 1-2.

Totally, these 20 teams are 313-93 in the round of 64, (.771), 252-116, (remember there were byes in the round of 64 before 1985) in the round of 32, (.684), 159-93 in the Sweet 16, (.631), 101-58 in the Elite 8, (.635), 58-43 in the Final Four, (.574) and 31-27 in title games, (.534). They have a total of 219 upsets, 11 per team. We have done better than these percentages in the round of 64 and national semi-finals. It’s interesting that the overall winning percentage of the 20 teams in the Sweet 16 is less than that of the Elite 8. Only Houston has a losing record in the first round, (and only two of their five losses were upsets). Only Michigan and Oklahoma State failed to have a winning record in the second round, (and only 5 of their 13 losses were upsets). Only Indiana, Ohio State and Syracuse have losing records in the Sweet 16 but the other two are 10-12 with 9 upsets. We are 5-11 with 7 upsets. Arizona (7-7) and Ohio State (3-3) have even records from the Elite 8 onward and LSU (3-5) and Oklahoma State (2-3) have losing records after the Sweet 16. None on this least seems to have a barrier between them and ultimate success the equal of what we have faced in the Sweet 16.

SWC,

Your posts are the gold standard of this board in terms of information and analysis.

 

[CaliCuse]

It’s well known that Syracuse, in the Jim Boeheim Era, has a good record in the early rounds of the NCAA tournament, (I didn’t say perfect!) and a very good record from the Eilte 8 onward but a poor record in the Sweet 16. SU’s 5-11 record at that level has prevented some pretty good teams from moving on to the later rounds of the tournament and getting us more Final Four teams than the three we have had, (in the JB Era), and perhaps more than the one national championship we have.

I decided to look at other top schools so see how consistent they are at every round, (one would expect the winning percentage to start high and go down somewhat at each level in an orderly progression) or if other schools have mysterious “roadblocks” as well. I also decided to keep track of how many of their losses were upsets according to seedings, (which began in 1979) or rankings, (for before that and the Final Four). The following schools have been to at least 3 Finals Fours since 1977. (The tournament introduced the Round of 64 with byes in 1979 and went to 64 teams in 1985, so the total wins in the round of 64 will not necessarily equal the total games in the round of 32.)

DUKE
23-3 (.885) in the Round of 64, 22-6 (.786) in the Round of 32, 14-8 (.636) in the Sweet 16, 12-2 (.857) in the Elite 8, 9-3 (.750) in the Final Four, 4-5 (.444) in the title game. Total: 84-27, (.757) with 21 upset losses, (77.7% of their losses). Highly successful but it’s interesting that their worst record is in the Sweet 16. They have so many upsets because they are almost always favored. They are almost always favored because of their strong regular seasons, which also give them consistently high seeds. In 28 appearances, (since 1977), they’ve been to 12 Final Fours and won 4 championships.

NORTH CAROLINA
24-1 (.960) in the Round of 64, 22-8 (.733) in the Round of 32, 19-3 (.864) in the Sweet 16, 12-7 (.632) in the Elite 8, 6-6 (.500) in the Final Four, 4-2 (.667) in the title game. Total: 87-27, (.763) with 18 upset losses, (66.7% of their losses). They’ve had some trouble in the Round of 32 the Elite 8 but the only real road-block is the national semi-finals. We’d like to have their problems but if we did, that’s what we’d probably be complaining about. They have also been to 12 Final Fours and won 4 titles in 31 appearances.

KANSAS
26-2 (.929) in the round of 64, 19-8 (.704) in the round of 32, 12-7 (.632) in the Sweet 16, 8-4 (.667) in the Elite 8, 5-3 (.625) in the Final Four, 2-3 (.400) in the title game. Total: 72-27 (.727) with 17 upset losses, (63.0% of their losses). They’ve gotten off to great starts just like Duke and UNC but have struggled somewhat more in the next two rounds. They’ve been to 8 Final Fours and won 2 titles in 27 appearances.

KENTUCKY
22-3 (.880) in the round of 64, 22-6 (.786) in the round of 32, 17-5 (.773) in the Sweet 16, 8-9 (.471) in the Elite 8, 5-3 (.625) in the Final Four, 4-1 (.800) in the title game. Total: 78-27 (.743) with 17 upset losses, (63.0% of their losses). The Cats have aced the Sweet 16 but hit the wall in the regional finals. But they have a great record in the title game. They’ve been to 8 Final Fours and won 4 titles in 28 appearances.

MICHIGAN STATE
14-6 (.700) in the round of 64, 12-4 (.750) in the round of 32, 7-5 (.583) in the Sweet 16, 5-2 (.471) in the Elite 8, 2-3 (.400) in the Final Four, 1-1 (.500) in the title game. Total: 41-21 (.661) with 7 upset losses, (33.3% of their losses). The Spartans have been vulnerable early, (four of those first round losses have been under Tom Izzo’s watch, despite his supposedly making his team bullet-proof with the tough early schedule: I guess he forgot to schedule the sort of teams he’ll play in the first round). They’ve also struggled somewhat in the Sweet 16. They’ve been great at getting to the Final Four but not great when they got there. If we could have held onto that lead in 2000, would Izzo’s reputation be so formidable. The Spartans have been to 7 Final Fours but won only one title in 21 appearances.

LOUISVILLE
16-6 (.727) in the round of 64, 17-6 (.739) in the round of 32, 9-8 (.529) in the Sweet 16, 6-3 (.667) in the Elite 8, 2-4 (.333) in the Final Four, 2-0 (1.000) in the title game. Total: 52-27 (.658) with 7 upset losses, (25.9% of their losses). The Cardinals have also had some trouble in the Sweet 16. They do a good job of getting to the Final Four but have trouble getting past the semi-finals. Their two national championships are the only times they’ve played for the crown in the Boeheim Era and the last one of those was 27 years ago. Rick Pitino has gone out in the first round three times since he came there. The Cardinals have been to 6 Final Fours and won 2 titles in 26 appearances.
My gut tells me not to get too excited or disappointed when this team goes belly up early. Consider it a mercy lose.
UCLA
17-5 (.773) in the round of 64, 15-7 (.682) in the round of 32, 8-7 (.533) in the Sweet 16, 5-3 (.625) in the Elite 8, 3-2 (.600) in the Final Four, 1-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 49-26 (.653) with 13 upset losses, (50.0% of their losses). The Bruins are still another team that’s been tripped up several times in the Sweet 16, although they’ve done OK in the other rounds. The Bruins have been to 5 Finals Fours and won 1 title in 26 appearances.

ARIZONA
16-11 (.593) in the round of 64, 13-3 (.8125) in the round of 32, 8-5 (.615) in the Sweet 16, 4-4 (.500) in the Elite 8, 2-2 (.500) in the Final Four, 1-1 (.500) in the title game. Total: 44-26 (.629) with 12 upset losses, (46.2% of their losses). The Wildcats are pretty tame in the first round but blitz the second round. From the Elite 8 on, they are a .500 team but that’s pretty good at that level. They’ve been to 4 Final Fours and won 1 title in 26 appearances.

ARKANSAS
13-6 (.684) in the round of 64, 10-9 (.526) in the round of 32, 6-4 (.600) in the Sweet 16, 4-2 (.667) in the Elite 8, 2-2 (.500) in the Final Four, 1-1 (.500) in the title game. Total: 36-24 (.600) with 7 upset losses, (29.2% of their losses). The Razorbacks have stumbled in the second round a lot but been pretty consistent afterwards. They have been to 4 Final Fours and won 1 title in 25 appearances.

CONNECTICUT
16-2 (.889) in the round of 64, 13-4 (.765) in the round of 32, 9-4 (.692) in the Sweet 16, 4-5 (.444) in the Elite 8, 3-1 (.750) in the Final Four, 3-0 (1.000) in the title game. Total: 48-16 (.750) with 7 upset losses, (43.8% of their losses). The Huskies got a late start with only one NCAA appearance from 1977-89. They have been extremely strong since then. Their stumbling point is the Elite 8. They’ve been to 4 Final Fours and won 3 titles in only 17 appearances. Both they and the Orange have played for the national title three times. We’ve faced two one seeds and a two seed, played three close games and won one, (should have won another). Connecticut faced a one seed, a four seed and an eight seed and won all three.

FLORIDA
12-5 (.706) in the round of 64, 8-4 (.667) in the round of 32, 6-2 (.750) in the Sweet 16, 4-2 (.667) in the Elite 8, 3-1 (.750) in the Final Four, 2-1 (.667) in the title game. Total: 35-15 (.700) with 8 upset losses, (53.3% of their losses). Amazingly the Gators had never been to the NCAA tournament until we beat them in 1987. There isn’t any round of the tournament they’ve had unusual trouble in, although they’ve done better in the Sweet 16 than the round of 32. They have been to 4 Final Fours and won 2 titles in only 14 appearances.

GEORGETOWN
20-4 (.833) in the round of 64, 11-10 (.524) in the round of 32, 8-3 (.727) in the Sweet 16, 4-4 (.500) in the Elite 8, 3-1 (.750) in the Final Four, 1-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 47-24 (.662) with 12 upset losses, (50.0% of their losses). The Hoyas should have gotten more than one national title when they are at the height of their power back in the 80’s. They nearly came away with three and that number would have better represented how strong they were at that time. They have a poor record in the round of 32. They’ve had 4 Final Fours and 1 title in 25 appearances.

INDIANA
15-9 (.625) in the round of 64, 13-6 (.684) in the round of 32, 6-7 (.462) in the Sweet 16, 4-2 (.667) in the Elite 8, 3-1 (.750) in the Final Four, 2-1 (1.000) in the title game. Total: 43-26 (.623) with 16 upset losses, (61.5% of their losses). They’ve got a championship that would have gone to us if we’d made a couple of free throws, one of five in their entire history. But they’ve also been knocked out in the first round a lot more than you’d think. And they, like us, have a losing record in the Sweet 16. They have 4 Final Fours and 2 titles in 27 appearances.

UNLV
11-5 (.688) in the round of 64, 8-5 (.583) in the round of 32, 5-3 (.625) in the Sweet 16, 4-1(.800) in the Elite 8, 1-3 (.250) in the Final Four, 1-0 (1.000) in the title game. Total: 30-17 (.651) with 9 upset losses, (52.9% of their losses). The Rebels have had trouble in the second round and not done well in the national semi-finals. They have been to 4 Final Fours and won 1 title in only 14 appearances.

HOUSTON
3-5 (.375) in the round of 64, 3-0 (1.000) in the round of 32, 3-0 (1.000) in the Sweet 16,3-0 (1.000) in the Elite 8, 2-1 (.667) in the Final Four, 0-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 14-8 (.636) with 3 upset losses, (37.5% of their losses). The Cougars have an amazing record: 5 first round losses and 3 Final Fours. The difference was Hakeem Olajuwon. I still think of them as a basketball power after the Elvin Hayes and Olajuwon eras but they haven’t been in the tournament in 21 years. Only 8 appearances since 1977 with 3 Final Fours but no titles, thanks to Lorenzo Charles.

LOUISIANA STATE
9-6 (.600) in the round of 64, 7-3 (.700) in the round of 32, 5-2 (.714) in the Sweet 16, 3-2(.600) in the Elite 8, 0-3 (.000) in the Final Four,0-0 (.000) in the title game. Total: 24-16 (.600) with 9 upset losses, (56.25% of their losses). The Tigers have managed to make it to three Final Fours but have always lost in the semis in 18 appearances.

MICHIGAN
12-3 (.800) in the round of 64, 6-7 (.600) in the round of 32, 5-1 (.833) in the Sweet 16, 3-2(.600) in the Elite 8, 3-0 (1.000) in the Final Four, 1-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 30-15 (.667) with 7 upset losses, (46.7% of their losses). The Wolverines have had trouble in the Round of 32 and that has limited their appearances in the later rounds. But they’ve made it to 3 Final Fours and won a title in 14 appearances. They’ve traditionally alternated being a power with Michigan State. They are both good now and it will be interesting to see how long that lasts.

OHIO STATE
12-3 (.800) in the round of 64, 9-6 (.600) in the round of 32, 4-5 (.625) in the Sweet 16, 3-1 (.750) in the Elite 8, 1-2 (.333) in the Final Four, 0-1 (.000) in the title game. Total: 29-18 (.617) with 10 upset losses, (55.6% of their losses). The Buckeyes struggle to get out of the second and third rounds but have been successful in the Elite 8, (but if we’d had Fab Melo…). 3 Final Fours and 0 titles in 15 appearances.

OKLAHOMA STATE
12-4 (.750) in the round of 64, 6-6 (.500) in the round of 32, 3-3 (.500) in the Sweet 16, 2-1(.667) in the Elite 8, 0-2 (.000) in the Final Four, 0-0 (.000) in the title game. Total: 23-16 (.589) with 9 upset losses, (56.25% of their losses). The Cowboys do pretty well in the first round but are the definition of a .5000 after that. Three Final Four appearances but no titles in 15 appearances.

SYRACUSE
20-4 (.833) in the round of 64, 16-9 (.640) in the round of 32, 5-11 (.313) in the Sweet 16, 3-2(.600) in the Elite 8, 3-0 (1.000) in the Final Four, 1-2 (.333) in the title game. Total: 48-28 (.632) with 17 upset losses, (60.7% of their losses). We do pretty well in the first two round but “hit the wall” in the Sweet 16. They we do well after that, going 7-4 with two close losses in the title game. We have more wins than any team with 3-4 Final Fours except Connecticut. Only Duke and North Carolina have been upset more but they have more appearances and far more wins, Final Fours and National Championships than we do. But you have to be highly rated, (and not necessarily overrated) to be upset. And you don’t want to play us in the National Semi-Finals. I would have loved for us to have played a 1 seed, a 4 seed and an 8 seed for the National Championship, as UCONN did. But we went 1-1-2 and 1-2.

Totally, these 20 teams are 313-93 in the round of 64, (.771), 252-116, (remember there were byes in the round of 64 before 1985) in the round of 32, (.684), 159-93 in the Sweet 16, (.631), 101-58 in the Elite 8, (.635), 58-43 in the Final Four, (.574) and 31-27 in title games, (.534). They have a total of 219 upsets, 11 per team. We have done better than these percentages in the round of 64 and national semi-finals. It’s interesting that the overall winning percentage of the 20 teams in the Sweet 16 is less than that of the Elite 8. Only Houston has a losing record in the first round, (and only two of their five losses were upsets). Only Michigan and Oklahoma State failed to have a winning record in the second round, (and only 5 of their 13 losses were upsets). Only Indiana, Ohio State and Syracuse have losing records in the Sweet 16 but the other two are 10-12 with 9 upsets. We are 5-11 with 7 upsets. Arizona (7-7) and Ohio State (3-3) have even records from the Elite 8 onward and LSU (3-5) and Oklahoma State (2-3) have losing records after the Sweet 16. None on this least seems to have a barrier between them and ultimate success the equal of what we have faced in the Sweet 16.

SWC,

Your posts are the gold standard of this board in terms of information and analysis.

 

[PoppyHart]

Magic Johnson would like to have a word with you.

 

[SWC75]

Magic Johnson would like to have a word with you.

My reply: "Marty Byrnes".

 

[SWC75]

A bit of technical advice: no need to quote my original post to reply.It's a bit long.

 

[dollarbill44]

thanks for the analysis. I can't understand why SU is so bad in the Sweet 16.

 

[bpo57]

Izzo has had great success but he's also gone out in the first round several times. There's no magic formula for success.

Never said there was a magic formula. But focusing on an occasional first round exit by Izzo is like saying you're not a fan of Kate Upton because you don't like her feet. :crazy: Six Final 4s in the last 14 is pretty damn amazing.

 

[SUGIANT]

Ahh, I've missed these Very interesting

 

[cuserulesall]

Thanks SWC75 , Great write up .

 

[SWC75]

Never said there was a magic formula. But focusing on an occasional first round exit by Izzo is like saying you're not a fan of Kate Upton because you don't like her feet. :crazy: Six Final 4s in the last 14 is pretty damn amazing.

I agree. You've got to look at the whole record. Most people look at Izzo just look at the Final Fours and assume that that happens every year: it doesn't. He's a great coach, but not the only one.

 

[bpo57]

Outside of John Wooden I am not aware of any coach that has routinely gone to Final Fours every year. Just seemed strange to me that you would focus your criticism on a few early departures and gloss over the tremendous record. You also mentioned that if SU had held on to that lead in the Palace then Izzo's record wouldn't have been so great but you could say that about a lot of coaches. What about us against OKSt in 2003?

Other than Coach K you would be hard pressed to name a coach with a better NCAA record than Izzo. And it just seems to me that he does it with far less than some other coaches.

 

[SWC75]

Outside of John Wooden I am not aware of any coach that has routinely gone to Final Fours every year. Just seemed strange to me that you would focus your criticism on a few early departures and gloss over the tremendous record. You also mentioned that if SU had held on to that lead in the Palace then Izzo's record wouldn't have been so great but you could say that about a lot of coaches. What about us against OKSt in 2003?

Other than Coach K you would be hard pressed to name a coach with a better NCAA record than Izzo. And it just seems to me that he does it with far less than some other coaches.

And few coaches get praised as much as Izzo. I'm not sure people realize that he's had that many first round losses among his Final Fours so i pointed that out. I respect him very much but think that his reputation as a post-season wizard is a little overdone.

 

[bpo57]

And few coaches get praised as much as Izzo. I'm not sure people realize that he's had that many first round losses among his Final Fours so i pointed that out. I respect him very much but think that his reputation as a post-season wizard is a little overdone.

That praise is well deserved. Three first round losses in 15 seasons doesn't seem all that terrible, particularly when you realize that all three of those MSU teams had 12 losses each. It wasn't like his teams grossly underperformed expectations. In other words, when Izzo has a rare bad year he still gets to the tourney (15 in a row) while in the other years he finds a way to do major damage.

 

[SWC75]

That praise is well deserved. Three first round losses in 15 seasons doesn't seem all that terrible, particularly when you realize that all three of those MSU teams had 12 losses each. It wasn't like his teams grossly underperformed expectations. In other words, when Izzo has a rare bad year he still gets to the tourney (15 in a row) while in the other years he finds a way to do major damage.

The Michigan State teams who went out in the first round were ranked (writers/coaches) #15-#12, #3/#3, #4/#5 and #2/#2, respectively in the first poll of the season, so the expectations for those teams were pretty high.