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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 1257945, member: 1969"]
This idea came from Pearl, who posted the resume the other day of NC ST who was clearly the last team in last year.   The final spot came down to SMU (who 90% had in) or a poo-poo platter of teams (which NC St was given the prize), and SMU's bad losses did them in as I expected.

RPIForecast gives us the following resume entering the ACC tourney at 20-11

Record: 20-11
RPI - 47
1-5  vs top 25 (Louisville *)
2-7 vs top 50 (H Louisville, N Iowa)
6-11 vs top 100
2 Sub 100 RPI Losses (BAD LOSSES) (at Michigan, at Pitt*)

* Assumed as it is our highest win or lowest win probability of those games -
Note (I just picked one of the Big 3)

At 19-12 our Resume may be the same assuming we lose that extra game to a team in that 50-100 range.   Although it could be a 3rd bad loss (or no top 25 win)  Our RPI may be closer to 50-54.

Let's look at the teams that went to Dayton last year, I had to make estimates of RPI as I saw post NCAA number from Nolan:

Xavier:
20-12
RPI - 52
1-25: 1-4
1-50: 4-5
Top 100: 9-10
Bad Losses: 3 - USC, Seton Hall (2)

Iowa
19-12
RPI - 56
1-25: 1-8
Top 50: 3-10
Top 100: 5-12
Bad Losses - None

Tennessee:

RPI - 45 (Estimate)
20-12
1-25: 1-5 (Virginia a #1 Seed)
1-50 : 2-6
Top 100: 9-8
Bad Losses:  4

NC St (Surprise Pick over SMU -- although I had SMU out, NC ST was in a group of about 4 teams that were all about equal)
21-13
RPI - 53
1-25: 1-7 (Duke)
1-50: 4-9
Top 100: 6-11
Bad Losses: 2

So our resume at 20-11 entering the ACC tourney, and assuming 21-12 after the tourney matches up pretty much with all of these.     Not much better or worse.   Just basically the same.  I guess after doing this I do feel a bit better about our chances if we finish at 21-12. (I was 50/50 before, maybe now I move it to 70-80%)
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