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[QUOTE="Sudano, post: 3426623, member: 822"]
When posters try to disprove that top HS players don't always pan out they list individual players that meet that point. For every player they correctly point out that didn't meet expectations I can list 10 who did. 
Analyzing Recruiting is basically a mathematical statistical endeavor. It has to accommodate margin for error.
The more players who are talented reflected by their offers and less so by their star rating the more likely it can safeguard or cushion the inevitable blow when a few small percentage in the class don't pan out. 
Recruit one top player and your failure rate could easily be 100%, recruit almost a whole class of 20 players and your failure rate is reduced greatly when those few don't pan out. People often point to walk on JJ Watt becoming an AA and top NFL draft pick and player and present it as if its a common occurrence what is possible in recruiting as if it happens regularly, but the fact that it isn't a common occurrence and walk on's rarely at extremely low percentages even contribute to top 25 teams escape them and is ignored. They present the rare as common. Alot of rare low rated players ultimately succeed but at such a significantly lower rate that it ultimately negatively affects Wins and Losses in a tough conference like the ACC. We ultimately need to recruit better players in bulk over the entire roster of 85 in comparison to our ACC competitors to accommodate that margin for error.
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