Reply to thread

Message

[QUOTE="sutomcat, post: 5078489, member: 27"]
I don't think this is quite right.

Can we all agree that when you make your initial door selection your odds of getting a car are 1 of 3?

That shouldn't be controversial.  Your odds of getting the car are 1 of 3.

When Monty shows a goat behind one of the doors you did not choose, it doesn't change your odds of getting a car with the door you initially chose.  You could take the other two rooms and incinerate them.  The odds that you  chose the room with the car remain 1 of 3.

The reason you should[B] always [/B]take the other door in this scenario is because if you do, you increase your probability of getting the car from 1 in 3 to 1 in 2.  If you switch, [B]and only if you switch[/B] [B]to the other room[/B], you change the game you are playing and are now there are only 2 rooms in play.  So your odds of getting the room with the car go from 1 in 3 to 1 in 2.

It is counter intuitive but it makes sense if you think about it.
[/QUOTE]

Verification

What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?