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[QUOTE="MikeSU02, post: 5078490, member: 60"]
[USER=289]SWC75[/USER] this is how I got it ^^

The way someone hammered it to me is like this. Let's say there are 100 suitcases sitting on a beach and only one has a million bucks in it and there is a host that is saying you get to pick one to win.

You choose one.

There are two little tiny islands about 50 feet out from the beach. They take the one you chose out to the island on the left and the 99 other suitcases go out to the tiny island on the right.

After this, if you were given the choice to choose either to stay with your choice of one suitcase on the left island vs the right with 99 suitcases, you would obviously choose the right. We all would. Give me 99% chance every day.

BUT, that wouldn't make for good tv.

So the host says, "I'm going to open 98 empty suitcases on the island with 99 total suitcases... and once I do, you will then have the chance to switch your choice. Do you want to stay with your choice on the left island or switch it to right island?"

That is the same island that everyone would have jumped at to choose before the host opened up the 98 losers. It's holding that probability.

I know this just may be redundant to the convo you already had, so apologies. But that is what gave me clarity for it.

If you've ever seen the movie 21, they do this with the three doors/game show host in the beginning of the movie.

[EDIT: [USER=278]AZOrange[/USER] please correct me if I summarized what you were trying to relay incorrectly.]
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