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Message: [QUOTE="Forloveoforange, post: 5079147, member: 1015"] I think you might call it the luck factor. If random luck eliminates choices, then that is the same luck that could help you to pick the right one to begin with. Luck is equal to luck. 98 suitcases opened in a lucky way will give the same luck factor as you picking potentially the right one to begin with. But if the host says he's going to open 98 empty suitcases, there is no luck involved. That's fine, thank you, for respectfully disagreeing, but same here. In my opinion, it has to add up to 100%. 33 and 1/3% plus 50% equals 83 and 1/2%. What happens the other 17 and 1/2 %? Exactly, you can't have a 33 and 1/3 % chance of rain and a 50% chance of no rain. [/QUOTE]