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[QUOTE="Forloveoforange, post: 5083336, member: 1015"]
I'll ask this in the form of a question. Did you pick your first pick, then hand-pick your "host" choice, then switch?  I don't hear you doing any of these things, yet you think you are mimicking the game.

What you are doing absolutely DOES give 50-50 odds, because your picks are not getting the special treatment that Monty is giving the non-originally-picked doors.

Edit: You do realize that Monty is choosing around the odd doors, right? Sorry, we've been back and forth, so I'm not sure what you've acknowledged. You act like you don't realize what the host is doing, because the fact that you are not doing the picking around and switching, makes it seem that maybe you don't know that the host is 100% picking around and you are meant to react by switching. You just aren't duplicating that, and that keeps it as you say 50-50. That is the difference in what you are doing.

I spelled it out in the last post. I don't know why the 3 scenarios aren't your new proof, because they are what happen in the game, and they lead to 66% success when you make a habit of switching.
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