The Path to 6 (week 3)

[TheCusian]

I wish this wasn't a thread topic worth exploring and the title was more "How we unseat Clemson" and have it be plausible. But let's deal with a bit of reality.

I think based on preseason projections by lots of people we were picked last and most have us missing a bowl. Around here, I think we were in the 6-8 wins on the high end of things and that we'd need the Rutgers game to get there. Obviously, that's a moot point. So, here are the remaining teams with a bit of data sprinkled in along with news from those teams. Though I think Dave Dorean looks like and has the personality of Toby from The Office, I'll try to leave personal feelings out of this. I'm presuming we beat Albany. If we don't this thread means even less.

Usual caveats apply. SOS uses available data from just this year, to date. + is a composite of a couple of sources, including Bill Connelly's SP+ which uses last years info this early in the year. Anyways, not a lot of data in week 2. Will get better over the season.

Takeaway: Nothing is a gimme. We need to improve to make this plausible but I think we can get to six by beating Ohio, Albany, Liberty, FSU, Wake, BC. If we drop any of them, Louisville and NC State are next and in that order.

Team	Schedule Strength to date (0 is average)	+ Ranking (O/D)	Change in Outlook?	Outlook
Syracuse	#96 (-5.96)	#86 (#107/#62)	N/A	N/A
Liberty	#82 (-3.95)	#63 (#40/#84)	Their D is pretty bad. Looking at their 1st two games, they are weak at defending both pass and run.	W They'll be favored, but their strength is O and ours is D. We play at home.
@ FSU	#108 (-6.09)	#62 (#54/#72)	That loss to a FCS team is ugly. ND almost losing to Toledo takes even more shine from their OT in week 1.	W We have shot that they'll death spiral after a truly horrible loss. Let's see how they do against Wake and Louisville.
Wake Forest	#106 (-6.61)	#56 (#56/#56)	Jury is still out. They haven't played anyone. We might know more after FSU this Sat.	W We're on a roll. We know we're close to them in talent. It's a winnable game.
#6 Clemson	#30 (5.01)	#3 (#9/#2)	They look more beatable than in years past as they have a down OL for them, a new, but very talented QB, and not as good a RB as the last few years. D is elite.	L Don't think we'll get this one. Would be a complete shocker.
@ #15 VaTech	#8 (14.40)	#23 (#31/#38)	This looks way less winnable that it did to start the season. I don't quite buy the ranking and think they'll end up being just good, but not top 15 good.	L Enter Sandman will be cool.
BC	#104 (-6.24)	#74 (#41/#97)	Another team we don't know enough about. They were bad on D last year and I think they'll continue to be bad this year. They lost their QB for the year. We'll have to see what kind of performance they get out of the position.	W This is the one I'm least confident of. But a backup QB and poor D? We have a real shot.
@ Louisville	#56 (0.55)	#71 (#33/#93)	They are pretty bad on D. It's strength on strength (but they did lose a lot of weapons from last year)	L This one could end up being a winnable game. Watch their offense. If it drops production, their D is bad enough we might be able to steal it. Wish this game was at home.
@ NC State	#57 (0.36)	#54 (#77/#38)	Uneven performances so far this year. I think I had this as a loss and I don't see anything to change my mind in the stats so far. Low scoring as both D's are better than the O's.	L I think our mindset will be informed by how well we've done in the previous 2 games. Win one of them? Maybe we can inch this closer to a win.
PITT	#7 (15.71)	#38 (#69/#20)	Better version of NC State. Really solid D. Might be playing for division?	L I don't see it. If we're sitting at 5 wins, maybe we can dig deep enough...

 

[Noexcuse]

Nice analysis. One thing about close games is intangibles: coaching, calling the right plays at the right time and decision making in critical situations. Defensively we seem to be there. Offensively? Who knows. I almost wish they would let it fly and play balls to the wall on Offense, but I think as someone else said the coaches feel that slowing it down and playing it cautious on O to keep it close and limit the defense's time on the field is they way they are going to go. It just leaves very little room for error.

 

[Dick_in_MI]

I admire your optimism. It will take a fair amount for me to get back to that level.

One thing that strikes me is, assuming a win over Albany, if we beat Liberty (and I never in my life thought that I would say "if" we beat Liberty) we would only need to beat 3 of the 9 P5 teams on our schedule to get to a bowl. If that doesn't tell you what a watered-down situation the current bowls are (and how some of them are less than the equivalent of the NIT in hoops) then I don't know what does.

Still, we didn't create that system. Our only job is to figure out a way to make it work for us. The other thing about your work is that it indicates that we have the potential to knock off a couple of peer programs and that is important.

 

[djorange1989]

I admire your optimism. It will take a fair amount for me to get back to that level.

One thing that strikes me is, assuming a win over Albany, if we beat Liberty (and I never though that I would say "if" we beat Liberty) we would only need to beat 3 of the 9 P5 teams on our schedule to get to a bowl. If that doesn't tell you what a watered-down situation the current bowls are (and how some of them are less than the equivalent of the NIT in hoops) then I don't know what does.

Still, we didn't create that system. Our only job is to figure out a way to make it work for us. The other thing about your work is that it indicates that we have the potential to knock off a couple of peer programs and that is important.

yep, not hard to get to a bowl, yet we have been to only 4 in the past 16 seasons, which is truly horrible. and three of those were in a 4 year span.

 

[elimunelson]

I admire your optimism. It will take a fair amount for me to get back to that level.

One thing that strikes me is, assuming a win over Albany, if we beat Liberty (and I never though that I would say "if" we beat Liberty) we would only need to beat 3 of the 9 P5 teams on our schedule to get to a bowl. If that doesn't tell you what a watered-down situation the current bowls are (and how some of them are less than the equivalent of the NIT in hoops) then I don't know what does.

Still, we didn't create that system. Our only job is to figure out a way to make it work for us. The other thing about your work is that it indicates that we have the potential to knock off a couple of peer programs and that is important.

Pitt/BC/WF/NC State. Those are teams we should compete with yearly. Dino has to figure out how to unlock victories in that grouping.

I think I'd accept a "would u take 5 wins going into the final game vs Pitt" scenario right now based on what i've seen.

 

[TheCusian]

I admire your optimism. It will take a fair amount for me to get back to that level.

One thing that strikes me is, assuming a win over Albany, if we beat Liberty (and I never though that I would say "if" we beat Liberty) we would only need to beat 3 of the 9 P5 teams on our schedule to get to a bowl. If that doesn't tell you what a watered-down situation the current bowls are (and how some of them are less than the equivalent of the NIT in hoops) then I don't know what does.

Still, we didn't create that system. Our only job is to figure out a way to make it work for us. The other thing about your work is that it indicates that we have the potential to knock off a couple of peer programs and that is important.

Thanks. My optimism this time came from realizing some of these programs have some real issues.*

*Fully acknowledging our own plight

 

[TheCusian]

Pitt/BC/WF/NC State. Those are teams we should compete with yearly. Dino has to figure out how to unlock victories in that grouping.

I think I'd accept a "would u take 5 wins going into the final game vs Pitt" scenario right now based on what i've seen.

Yep. And at home? I think in that scenario, Dino prob keeps his job no matter what given his buyout IMO

 

[creatorsgam]

NCSU lost their captain and all-ACC linebacker Payton Wilson as well as a starting safety last week. Both done for the season. Brutal hit for them and on paper makes their defense a bit vulnerable, especially if the injury bug hits again.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I would put in order of likelihood:

Albany
Liberty
BC
at Louisville
at FSU
Wake
Pitt
at NC State
at VA Tech
Clemson

 

[David321]

I wish this wasn't a thread topic worth exploring and the title was more "How we unseat Clemson" and have it be plausible. But let's deal with a bit of reality.

I think based on preseason projections by lots of people we were picked last and most have us missing a bowl. Around here, I think we were in the 6-8 wins on the high end of things and that we'd need the Rutgers game to get there. Obviously, that's a moot point. So, here are the remaining teams with a bit of data sprinkled in along with news from those teams. Though I think Dave Dorean looks like and has the personality of Toby from The Office, I'll try to leave personal feelings out of this. I'm presuming we beat Albany. If we don't this thread means even less.

Usual caveats apply. SOS uses available data from just this year, to date. + is a composite of a couple of sources, including Bill Connelly's SP+ which uses last years info this early in the year. Anyways, not a lot of data in week 2. Will get better over the season.

Takeaway: Nothing is a gimme. We need to improve to make this plausible but I think we can get to six by beating Ohio, Albany, Liberty, FSU, Wake, BC. If we drop any of them, Louisville and NC State are next and in that order.

Team	Schedule Strength to date (0 is average)	+ Ranking (O/D)	Change in Outlook?	Outlook
Syracuse	#96 (-5.96)	#86 (#107/#62)	N/A	N/A
Liberty	#82 (-3.95)	#63 (#40/#84)	Their D is pretty bad. Looking at their 1st two games, they are weak at defending both pass and run.	W They'll be favored, but their strength is O and ours is D. We play at home.
@ FSU	#108 (-6.09)	#62 (#54/#72)	That loss to a FCS team is ugly. ND almost losing to Toledo takes even more shine from their OT in week 1.	W We have shot that they'll death spiral after a truly horrible loss. Let's see how they do against Wake and Louisville.
Wake Forest	#106 (-6.61)	#56 (#56/#56)	Jury is still out. They haven't played anyone. We might know more after FSU this Sat.	W We're on a roll. We know we're close to them in talent. It's a winnable game.
#6 Clemson	#30 (5.01)	#3 (#9/#2)	They look more beatable than in years past as they have a down OL for them, a new, but very talented QB, and not as good a RB as the last few years. D is elite.	L Don't think we'll get this one. Would be a complete shocker.
@ #15 VaTech	#8 (14.40)	#23 (#31/#38)	This looks way less winnable that it did to start the season. I don't quite buy the ranking and think they'll end up being just good, but not top 15 good.	L Enter Sandman will be cool.
BC	#104 (-6.24)	#74 (#41/#97)	Another team we don't know enough about. They were bad on D last year and I think they'll continue to be bad this year. They lost their QB for the year. We'll have to see what kind of performance they get out of the position.	W This is the one I'm least confident of. But a backup QB and poor D? We have a real shot.
@ Louisville	#56 (0.55)	#71 (#33/#93)	They are pretty bad on D. It's strength on strength (but they did lose a lot of weapons from last year)	L This one could end up being a winnable game. Watch their offense. If it drops production, their D is bad enough we might be able to steal it. Wish this game was at home.
@ NC State	#57 (0.36)	#54 (#77/#38)	Uneven performances so far this year. I think I had this as a loss and I don't see anything to change my mind in the stats so far. Low scoring as both D's are better than the O's.	L I think our mindset will be informed by how well we've done in the previous 2 games. Win one of them? Maybe we can inch this closer to a win.
PITT	#7 (15.71)	#38 (#69/#20)	Better version of NC State. Really solid D. Might be playing for division?	L I don't see it. If we're sitting at 5 wins, maybe we can dig deep enough...

Excellent work, thanks for putting the time in to piece this together for us.

 

[Goin' Deep]

IF WE BEAT Albany and Liberty with solid performances AND the ACC looks like a bunch of teams/all with weaknesses, it's possible for CUSE to win any game. Clemson is a super talented team. But we beat them at our place and almost at their place. 43,000 in the dome on a Friday night?
I can see us winning 7 easy.

But IF WE GET A STENCH FILLED performance vs Liberty meaning penalties, drops and sacks, 3 wins could be "all she wrote" and we may be, I hate to say it, back to square 1.

 

[Dick_in_MI]

Pitt/BC/WF/NC State. Those are teams we should compete with yearly. Dino has to figure out how to unlock victories in that grouping.

Agree. In the 1990's it was reasonable to expect us to challenge for the BE title against some good Miami and VT teams. Those days are long gone and nobody really expects us to challenge Clemson or, in most years but maybe not this one, FSU. Those schools approach football more like SEC schools.

It is more than reasonable for us to be expected to compete with the schools you mentioned. Two are traditional rivals whom we have historically competed with. As for Wake, they only have 8000 and change students and are located in a state where football excellence is not a traditional thing.

We are not a Michigan, where a big coaching salary comes with the expectation that you beat OSU occasionally. We don't have a serious rival that we can all agree upon nor is regularly beating the Clemsons of the world plausible. However, it is not too much to ask that SU competes with our peer schools to the degree that we can toss in a few OOC wins and get to a bowl at least half the time, and ideally more years than not. I think that is a reasonable goal/expectation for a P5 program like ours.

 

[upperdeck]

really the last 2 yrs has been a tale of the D playing well enough that almost any offense could win and then late 3rd/early 4th we make mistake get in a hole and the offense cant do anything late.. The leap from that 2 winning has been about 7-10 pts in 2/3 of the losses.. We gave away 10-17 pts last week just from mental mistakes inside the 40.

 

[Dnyr85]

I wish this wasn't a thread topic worth exploring and the title was more "How we unseat Clemson" and have it be plausible. But let's deal with a bit of reality.
I think based on preseason projections by lots of people we were picked last and most have us missing a bowl. Around here, I think we were in the 6-8 wins on the high end of things and that we'd need the Rutgers game to get there. Obviously, that's a moot point. So, here are the remaining teams with a bit of data sprinkled in along with news from those teams. Though I think Dave Dorean looks like and has the personality of Toby from The Office, I'll try to leave personal feelings out of this. I'm presuming we beat Albany. If we don't this thread means even less.
Usual caveats apply. SOS uses available data from just this year, to date. + is a composite of a couple of sources, including Bill Connelly's SP+ which uses last years info this early in the year. Anyways, not a lot of data in week 2. Will get better over the season.
Takeaway: Nothing is a gimme. We need to improve to make this plausible but I think we can get to six by beating Ohio, Albany, Liberty, FSU, Wake, BC. If we drop any of them, Louisville and NC State are next and in that order.

Team	Schedule Strength to date (0 is average)	+ Ranking (O/D)	Change in Outlook?	Outlook
Syracuse	#96 (-5.96)	#86 (#107/#62)	N/A	N/A
Liberty	#82 (-3.95)	#63 (#40/#84)	Their D is pretty bad. Looking at their 1st two games, they are weak at defending both pass and run.	W They'll be favored, but their strength is O and ours is D. We play at home.
@ FSU	#108 (-6.09)	#62 (#54/#72)	That loss to a FCS team is ugly. ND almost losing to Toledo takes even more shine from their OT in week 1.	W We have shot that they'll death spiral after a truly horrible loss. Let's see how they do against Wake and Louisville.
Wake Forest	#106 (-6.61)	#56 (#56/#56)	Jury is still out. They haven't played anyone. We might know more after FSU this Sat.	W We're on a roll. We know we're close to them in talent. It's a winnable game.
#6 Clemson	#30 (5.01)	#3 (#9/#2)	They look more beatable than in years past as they have a down OL for them, a new, but very talented QB, and not as good a RB as the last few years. D is elite.	L Don't think we'll get this one. Would be a complete shocker.
@ #15 VaTech	#8 (14.40)	#23 (#31/#38)	This looks way less winnable that it did to start the season. I don't quite buy the ranking and think they'll end up being just good, but not top 15 good.	L Enter Sandman will be cool.
BC	#104 (-6.24)	#74 (#41/#97)	Another team we don't know enough about. They were bad on D last year and I think they'll continue to be bad this year. They lost their QB for the year. We'll have to see what kind of performance they get out of the position.	W This is the one I'm least confident of. But a backup QB and poor D? We have a real shot.
@ Louisville	#56 (0.55)	#71 (#33/#93)	They are pretty bad on D. It's strength on strength (but they did lose a lot of weapons from last year)	L This one could end up being a winnable game. Watch their offense. If it drops production, their D is bad enough we might be able to steal it. Wish this game was at home.
@ NC State	#57 (0.36)	#54 (#77/#38)	Uneven performances so far this year. I think I had this as a loss and I don't see anything to change my mind in the stats so far. Low scoring as both D's are better than the O's.	L I think our mindset will be informed by how well we've done in the previous 2 games. Win one of them? Maybe we can inch this closer to a win.
PITT	#7 (15.71)	#38 (#69/#20)	Better version of NC State. Really solid D. Might be playing for division?	L I don't see it. If we're sitting at 5 wins, maybe we can dig deep enough...

 

[AngryOtto]

I would put in order of likelihood:

Albany
Liberty
BC
at Louisville
at FSU
Wake
Pitt
at NC State
at VA Tech
Clemson

I’m watching Louisville. I do not see how we beat them. I’m to the point I am not sure how we beat anyone without an offense.
D can only do so much.

 

[AAM62]

I would put in order of likelihood:

Albany
Liberty
BC
at Louisville
at FSU
Wake
Pitt
at NC State
at VA Tech
Clemson

I think I would flip Pitt and ncstate. Pitt is going to mess around and be ranked at some point this year.

 

[tep624]

I wish this wasn't a thread topic worth exploring and the title was more "How we unseat Clemson" and have it be plausible. But let's deal with a bit of reality.

I think based on preseason projections by lots of people we were picked last and most have us missing a bowl. Around here, I think we were in the 6-8 wins on the high end of things and that we'd need the Rutgers game to get there. Obviously, that's a moot point. So, here are the remaining teams with a bit of data sprinkled in along with news from those teams. Though I think Dave Dorean looks like and has the personality of Toby from The Office, I'll try to leave personal feelings out of this. I'm presuming we beat Albany. If we don't this thread means even less.

Usual caveats apply. SOS uses available data from just this year, to date. + is a composite of a couple of sources, including Bill Connelly's SP+ which uses last years info this early in the year. Anyways, not a lot of data in week 2. Will get better over the season.

Takeaway: Nothing is a gimme. We need to improve to make this plausible but I think we can get to six by beating Ohio, Albany, Liberty, FSU, Wake, BC. If we drop any of them, Louisville and NC State are next and in that order.

Team	Schedule Strength to date (0 is average)	+ Ranking (O/D)	Change in Outlook?	Outlook
Syracuse	#96 (-5.96)	#86 (#107/#62)	N/A	N/A
Liberty	#82 (-3.95)	#63 (#40/#84)	Their D is pretty bad. Looking at their 1st two games, they are weak at defending both pass and run.	W They'll be favored, but their strength is O and ours is D. We play at home.
@ FSU	#108 (-6.09)	#62 (#54/#72)	That loss to a FCS team is ugly. ND almost losing to Toledo takes even more shine from their OT in week 1.	W We have shot that they'll death spiral after a truly horrible loss. Let's see how they do against Wake and Louisville.
Wake Forest	#106 (-6.61)	#56 (#56/#56)	Jury is still out. They haven't played anyone. We might know more after FSU this Sat.	W We're on a roll. We know we're close to them in talent. It's a winnable game.
#6 Clemson	#30 (5.01)	#3 (#9/#2)	They look more beatable than in years past as they have a down OL for them, a new, but very talented QB, and not as good a RB as the last few years. D is elite.	L Don't think we'll get this one. Would be a complete shocker.
@ #15 VaTech	#8 (14.40)	#23 (#31/#38)	This looks way less winnable that it did to start the season. I don't quite buy the ranking and think they'll end up being just good, but not top 15 good.	L Enter Sandman will be cool.
BC	#104 (-6.24)	#74 (#41/#97)	Another team we don't know enough about. They were bad on D last year and I think they'll continue to be bad this year. They lost their QB for the year. We'll have to see what kind of performance they get out of the position.	W This is the one I'm least confident of. But a backup QB and poor D? We have a real shot.
@ Louisville	#56 (0.55)	#71 (#33/#93)	They are pretty bad on D. It's strength on strength (but they did lose a lot of weapons from last year)	L This one could end up being a winnable game. Watch their offense. If it drops production, their D is bad enough we might be able to steal it. Wish this game was at home.
@ NC State	#57 (0.36)	#54 (#77/#38)	Uneven performances so far this year. I think I had this as a loss and I don't see anything to change my mind in the stats so far. Low scoring as both D's are better than the O's.	L I think our mindset will be informed by how well we've done in the previous 2 games. Win one of them? Maybe we can inch this closer to a win.
PITT	#7 (15.71)	#38 (#69/#20)	Better version of NC State. Really solid D. Might be playing for division?	L I don't see it. If we're sitting at 5 wins, maybe we can dig deep enough...

FSU lost to a Jacksonville State team that lost to UAB 31-0 the week prior. If we can't beat them this year we have no business going to a bowl.

 

[DocFlanders]

FSU lost to a Jacksonville State team that lost to UAB 31-0 the week prior. If we can't beat them this year we have no business going to a bowl.

We gotta have an offense to beat anybody outside Albany….and not sure we do at this point.

2-10 until proven otherwise.

 

[tep624]

2010 Syracuse Football Schedule | FBSchedules.com

View the 2010 Syracuse Football Schedule at FBSchedules.com. The Orange football schedule includes opponents, date, time, and TV.

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That season we had a very strong defense and an inconsistent offense with a soph Nassib who struggled at times. I think our specials, after a lousy game against Rutgers, will bounce back. We have a very strong defense. If our offense can just focus on the run, situationally pass and not make mistakes, we can get to 6. That 2010 team didn’t set the world on fire on offense and won 7 games. We were 93rd out of 120 in pts scored per game that year.

 

[Cuse69]

Definitely plausible, I won't get my hopes up for FSU until we win a game at Doak, remember 2019, they were down and would eventually fire Willie and still whipped us up and down the field. I don't know how Wake is this year but Clawson runs a heck of a program.

Liberty could just be the game to get things going, I don't see them boat racing us and IMO this is when the real Qb decision is made. Either TD plays well and the O moves the ball and scores or DB will either have to put GS in or risk the season being over before it began. 6 wins is still possible with this schedule, we play in the ACC after all and only should have Clemson + VaTech penciled in as a loss IMO, that leaves plenty of opportunity.

 

[upperdeck]

I havent seen anything that says VT is not a winnable game. They beat UNC. lets see where they are after WV and ND and Pitt. if they are still a 5-6 win team then so be it..

 

[elimunelson]

Everyone looks gettable on the schedule but so don’t we. I guarantee every team on our schedule minus Albany has us as a penned in W. We stink based on last year results and our really predictable coaching.

need to flip script for us to bowl

 

[gbo]

I'm not sure I'd put Clemson down as a definite loss. On the road and on a Friday...looks like a 13-7 type game to me.

 

[qdawgg]

FSU lost to a Jacksonville State team that lost to UAB 31-0 the week prior. If we can't beat them this year we have no business going to a bowl.

Watching them isn’t too different than watching us. The coaches appear to have zero idea what they’re doing or want to do on offense. The difference is they have some pretty good talent on their team, that’s not saying we don’t because I believe we do. But that team should be playing better than they are. Given all that, I think they’d need to perform even worse this year to lose to us…… if Rutgers is par for how we look.

 

[qdawgg]

Listen, I’m not trying to be Debbie downer. But after how we looked against Rutgers, counting any game other than Albany a possibility is a weird take. Anyone can win any game but making it sound like we’re on par with any of these teams, after how we played against Rutgers and last year. These teams are still better than us, more talent and semi better coaching at least. We are, right now, the Rutgers of the ACC unless we prove otherwise.