The Path to 6 (week 5)

[TheCusian]

I did this after our loss to Rutgers as a way of finding some hope. Weirdly, we got to 3 wins and the path looks harder somehow? The teams in our division are all surging (except Clemson, and they are still really talented) and our two cross-division games took a slight dip from a couple of weeks ago, but still look stout.

On the flip side we know more about Syracuse Football 2021. We have a good D, an improved OL, 2 flawed but serviceable QBs, and a stud RB. Those are the raw ingredients to being competitive in every game left on our schedule.

I've changed up the data portion to rely more on ESPNS SP+... What you need to know about SP+ is it's still including data from last year. This is good in some ways, but if you're in the "we are way better than our 1-10 COVID year" camp, some of our numbers are left over from then. Data is hard to come by in CFB so it makes sense. I'm including it because I like seeing what a teams strengths are (Good O/Poor D/Bad ST for example). I'll try to work in other sources of data as we go, so we're not to reliant on one data set.

Takeaway: This might be more of a push than anything else. I'm honestly having a hard time finding games we're def going to win or lose. But as of right now I see these as our wins at the end of the season: Ohio, Albany, Liberty, FSU, Louisville, and BC (but if you told me we still got to 6 with a different 3 ACC teams, I'd nod and stare off into the distance)

Team	SP+ Overall Ranking (Off/Def/ST)	Change in Outlook?	Outlook
Syracuse (3-1)	#70 (85/43/54)	N/A	N/A
@ FSU (0-4)	#73 (61/83/45)	They did death spiral after losing to an FCS team. Talent might be souring on the staff. Still talented.	W This is the easiest game left on the schedule. Let's take their hearts.
#24 Wake Forest (4-0)	#54 (38/60/23)	They look legit good. I do think getting them at home is very helpful. Especially if we beat FSU. A rowdy home crowd could help.	L I *hate* giving them credit, but they are an extremely well coached team. I'd love to ruin their perfect season, but as of now I see a L.
#25 Clemson (2-2)	#7 (34/2/62)	They look way more beatable and in the dome? This is inching our direction. We'll see if BC can hand them a L at their place. I have too much respect for Dabo to predict a death spiral, but talent don't like losing.	L I want to put this as a W. If we somehow take FSU and Wake and they lose to BC? Could be really interesting. But for now? Talent wins.
@ VaTech (3-1)	#41 (37/45/92)	They have come back to earth a bit after a big win vs UNC (who is not great).	L At home? They are a solid team and it's a tough place to play. They are bad at ST, so maybe our D holds them and we win a rock fight?
BC (4-0)	#34 (13/75/6)	They beat an SEC team with their backup QB and a suspect D. How? The best OL in the conference.	W This is the one I can't get a real read on. I'm thinking our D vs their O might be enough at home. Hopefully our O has hit it's stride.
@ Louisville (3-1)	#69 (29/99/27)	They are winning games but their D is pretty bad. They have a better O than Liberty and a much worse D. Their QB is more of runner than Willis and less of a passer. But he's the engine.	W I think we get this one on the road by playing a similar style to the game vs Liberty. I'll be watching their D numbers.
@ #23 NC State (3-1)	#42 (74/15/122)	I don't buy them yet. Their O is kinda bad and ST are awful but paired with a very good D. I think they will be a team to watch to see if they start dropping games they think they should win.	L On the road in a rock fight? Maybe if #44 can run them over... But for now a L.
PITT (3-1)	#21 (23/29/16)	What's changed since two weeks ago? They beat an ok SEC team on the road! The lost to a MAC team at home! Not sure what they are.	L I'm not sure we have enough firepower, honestly. The 'Duzzi can coach D. But we'll see where both teams are at - lots can happen.

 

[SUGIANT]

I personally think that while Shrader is serviceable, there’s room for him to grow as he plays and learns the playbook.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Really wish the H and A were flipped this year.

FSU at H is a W
Wake A there is a chance for bad weather slowing their O down
Clemson doesn't matter either way
VA Tech at H is a great shot at a W
BC we can beat A
Louisville I think we beat at H
NC State is a great shot at H
Pitt doesn't matter either way

I guess the good news is whether Dino is back or we have a new HC, next year sets up well.

 

[TheCusian]

I personally think that while Shrader is serviceable, there’s room for him to grow as he plays and learns the playbook.

Absolutely.

 

[upperdeck]

hope the game slows down for Shrader a bit more so the passing gets better..

 

[kcsu]

Stick to the script. Run the ball. Play field position. Lean on the D.