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Message: [QUOTE="TheCusian, post: 3980832, member: 2585"] I did [URL='https://syracusefan.com/threads/the-path-to-6-week-3.163134/']this[/URL] after our loss to Rutgers as a way of finding some hope. Weirdly, we got to 3 wins and the path looks harder somehow? The teams in our division are all surging (except Clemson, and they are still really talented) and our two cross-division games took a slight dip from a couple of weeks ago, but still look stout. On the flip side we know more about Syracuse Football 2021. We have a good D, an improved OL, 2 flawed but serviceable QBs, and a stud RB. Those are the raw ingredients to being competitive in every game left on our schedule. I've changed up the data portion to rely more on [URL='https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/32284959/college-football-updated-sp+-rankings-week-4']ESPNS SP+[/URL]... What you need to know about SP+ is it's still including data from last year. This is good in some ways, but if you're in the "we are way better than our 1-10 COVID year" camp, some of our numbers are left over from then. Data is hard to come by in CFB so it makes sense. I'm including it because I like seeing what a teams strengths are (Good O/Poor D/Bad ST for example). I'll try to work in other sources of data as we go, so we're not to reliant on one data set. [B]Takeaway:[/B] This might be more of a push than anything else. I'm honestly having a hard time finding games we're def going to win or lose. But as of right now I see these as our wins at the end of the season: [B]Ohio, Albany, Liberty, FSU, Louisville, and BC [/B](but if you told me we still got to 6 with a different 3 ACC teams, I'd nod and stare off into the distance) [TABLE] [TR] [TH]Team[/TH] [TH]SP+ Overall Ranking (Off/Def/ST)[/TH] [TH]Change in Outlook?[/TH] [TH]Outlook[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Syracuse (3-1)[/TD] [TD]#70 (85/43/54)[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@ FSU (0-4)[/TD] [TD]#73 (61/83/45)[/TD] [TD]They did death spiral after losing to an FCS team. Talent might be souring on the staff. Still talented.[/TD] [TD][B][COLOR=rgb(65, 168, 95)]W[/COLOR][/B] This is the easiest game left on the schedule. Let's take their hearts.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]#24 Wake Forest (4-0)[/TD] [TD]#54 (38/60/23)[/TD] [TD]They look legit good. I do think getting them at home is very helpful. Especially if we beat FSU. A rowdy home crowd could help.[/TD] [TD][B][COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)]L[/COLOR][/B] I *hate* giving them credit, but they are an extremely well coached team. I'd love to ruin their perfect season, but as of now I see a L.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]#25 Clemson (2-2)[/TD] [TD]#7 (34/2/62)[/TD] [TD]They look way more beatable and in the dome? This is inching our direction. We'll see if BC can hand them a L at their place. I have too much respect for Dabo to predict a death spiral, but talent don't like losing.[/TD] [TD][B][COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)]L[/COLOR][/B] I want to put this as a W. If we somehow take FSU and Wake and they lose to BC? Could be really interesting. But for now? Talent wins.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@ VaTech (3-1)[/TD] [TD]#41 (37/45/92)[/TD] [TD]They have come back to earth a bit after a big win vs UNC (who is not great).[/TD] [TD][B][COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)]L[/COLOR][/B] At home? They are a solid team and it's a tough place to play. They are bad at ST, so maybe our D holds them and we win a rock fight?[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BC (4-0)[/TD] [TD]#34 (13/75/6)[/TD] [TD]They beat an SEC team with their backup QB and a suspect D. How? The best OL in the conference. [/TD] [TD][B][COLOR=rgb(65, 168, 95)]W[/COLOR][/B] This is the one I can't get a real read on. I'm thinking our D vs their O might be enough at home. Hopefully our O has hit it's stride.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@ Louisville (3-1)[/TD] [TD]#69 (29/99/27)[/TD] [TD]They are winning games but their D is pretty bad. They have a better O than Liberty and a much worse D. Their QB is more of runner than Willis and less of a passer. But he's the engine.[/TD] [TD][B][COLOR=rgb(65, 168, 95)]W[/COLOR][/B] I think we get this one on the road by playing a similar style to the game vs Liberty. I'll be watching their D numbers.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@ #23 NC State (3-1)[/TD] [TD]#42 (74/15/122)[/TD] [TD]I don't buy them yet. Their O is kinda bad and ST are awful but paired with a very good D. I think they will be a team to watch to see if they start dropping games they think they should win.[/TD] [TD][B][COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)]L[/COLOR][/B] On the road in a rock fight? Maybe if #44 can run them over... But for now a L.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]PITT (3-1)[/TD] [TD]#21 (23/29/16)[/TD] [TD]What's changed since two weeks ago? They beat an ok SEC team on the road! The lost to a MAC team at home! Not sure what they are. [/TD] [TD][B][COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)]L[/COLOR][/B] I'm not sure we have enough firepower, honestly. The 'Duzzi can coach D. But we'll see where both teams are at - lots can happen. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/QUOTE]

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