the punt

[Millhouse]

Using NFL data average defense vs average offense, you only need a 14% chance of making the first down to be indifferent between punting and going for it.

Our defense vs Clemson's offense is anything but average. That should knock the threshold for going for it way way down.

Big meatheaded mistake that took some of the shine off an otherwise admirable performance.

Don't let yourself get fooled by fumbles, fumbles are great but they're not predictive at all.

Lame decision

 

[RandygoCuse]

Using NFL data average defense vs average offense, you only need a 14% chance of making the first down to be indifferent between punting and going for it.

Our defense vs Clemson's offense is anything but average. That should knock the threshold for going for it way way down.

Big meatheaded mistake that took some of the shine off an otherwise admirable performance.

Don't let yourself get fooled by fumbles, fumbles are great but they're not predictive at all.

Lame decision

Agree with this 100% - I'm a big proponent of going for it on 4th as much as possible. And I think the data doesn't show some other things that would be advantageous to the offense:

1) If it is 3rd and long, and the defense can't assume you will pass, they will have to try to set up for both a run or a pass, making them more vulnerable.

2) Getting a few extra sets of downs (rather than punting), will keep both your offense and the other team's defense on the field longer. As the defense has to react to the offense, I have little doubt the the extra energy exhausted benefits the offense more.

If we do change coaches, I hope our next coach makes it a priority to go for it on 4th to create more opportunities to score (as well as fewer opportunities for the opponent).

 

[IthacaBarrel]

who dropped the ball on 3rd down? That was brutal

 

[Millhouse]

who dropped the ball on 3rd down? That was brutal

in the words of the late great father of chuck bullough, that took the sails out of our wind. parris?

edit oh wait, he's still alive!

 

[dan7800]

If you're going to beat the #1 team in the country, you need to take risks. If SS were not taking risks, but winning, then I'd be ok with things.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

in the words of the late great father of chuck bullough, that took the sails out of our wind. parris?

edit oh wait, he's still alive!

Yeah that was a killer...

 

[upperdeck]

it may help if you can actually pass the ball just a bit which we showed all day we couldnt

 

[Eric15]

Using NFL data average defense vs average offense, you only need a 14% chance of making the first down to be indifferent between punting and going for it.

Our defense vs Clemson's offense is anything but average. That should knock the threshold for going for it way way down.

Big meatheaded mistake that took some of the shine off an otherwise admirable performance.

Don't let yourself get fooled by fumbles, fumbles are great but they're not predictive at all.

Lame decision

Just to confirm, you're referring to the punt on 4th and 8 when we were down 10 with 6 minutes left?

 

[Millhouse]

it may help if you can actually pass the ball just a bit which we showed all day we couldnt

i agree but i would've been fine with them running or chucking one up. the odds of getting the ball back from them twice in less than 6 minutes are worse than their crappy odds of completing a pass

 

[Millhouse]

Just to confirm, you're referring to the punt on 4th and 8 when we were down 10 with 6 minutes left?

yes

 

[rrlbees]

Using NFL data average defense vs average offense, you only need a 14% chance of making the first down to be indifferent between punting and going for it. Our defense vs Clemson's offense is anything but average. That should knock the threshold for going for it way way down. Big meatheaded mistake that took some of the shine off an otherwise admirable performance. Don't let yourself get fooled by fumbles, fumbles are great but they're not predictive at all. Lame decision

You're only looking at one side of the coin. What was the percentage on us making it? Someone else said 8%. So you say our defense vs their offense would bring the 14% down to be worth it. Does it go to 8% and does our offense vs their defense then bring it back up close to 14% to make it worth the try?

 

[Millhouse]

You're only looking at one side of the coin. What was the percentage on us making it? Someone else said 8%. So you say our defense vs their offense would bring the 14% down to be worth it. Does it go to 8% and does our offense vs their defense then bring it back up close to 14% to make it worth the try?

who said 8 percent? 1 in 12 is better than 8%. come on. not even mahoney is that bad in an obvious passing down

 

[Eric15]

You're only looking at one side of the coin. What was the percentage on us making it? Someone else said 8%. So you say our defense vs their offense would bring the 14% down to be worth it. Does it go to 8% and does our offense vs their defense then bring it back up close to 14% to make it worth the try?

We were 3 for 13 on 3rd downs that game -- so around 23%. How was that 8% calculated?

If we were down one score I would absolutely agree with you to punt. But getting a 3 and out, going on a long scoring drive, getting another 3 and out, and then kicking a field goal all in 6 minutes against the #1 team in America just seems incomprehensible compared to just running a darn play and trying to get 8 yards.

 

[rrlbees]

We were 3 for 13 on 3rd downs that game -- so around 23%. How was that 8% calculated? If we were down one score I would absolutely agree with you to punt. But getting a 3 and out, going on a long scoring drive, getting another 3 and out, and then kicking a field goal all in 6 minutes against the #1 team in America just seems incomprehensible compared to just running a darn play and trying to get 8 yards.

Were we 3 for 13 on 4th and 8's?

 

[rrlbees]

who said 8 percent? 1 in 12 is better than 8%. come on. not even mahoney is that bad in an obvious passing down

I don't remember. It's in another thread. But what is the 1 for 12?

 

[Millhouse]

We were 3 for 13 on 3rd downs that game -- so around 23%. How was that 8% calculated?

If we were down one score I would absolutely agree with you to punt. But getting a 3 and out, going on a long scoring drive, getting another 3 and out, and then kicking a field goal all in 6 minutes against the #1 team in America just seems incomprehensible compared to just running a darn play and trying to get 8 yards.

using the nfl numbers, going for it is 40% better than punting.

punting was only 25% better than kicking an 80 yard fg (0% chance obviously )

aka you can't punt down 10 with under 6 left.

 

[Millhouse]

I don't remember. It's in another thread. But what is the 1 for 12?

8% is roughly the same as 1 divided by 12. i was putting it a different way

 

[Yegorange]

The drop was brutal. And I also went: go for it dammit!

But I thought it was 3rd and 8 that was mismanaged. You have to treat it as 2 downs to get 8. The option (working all day) could've picked up a few yards making the 4th down easier.

 

[MikeSU02]

using the nfl numbers, going for it is 40% better than punting.

punting was only 25% better than kicking an 80 yard fg (0% chance obviously )

aka you can't punt down 10 with under 6 left.

I can't believe this decision is considered ok (the punt) by anyone.

It's entrenched football-think (my nice way of saying 'meatheadedness').

We gave the #1 team in the country the ball back, up ten, with six minutes to go, with Watson absolutely having a great day. Barring them forgetting how to play football, we didn't even give ourselves a chance to win.

 

[upperdeck]

i agree but i would've been fine with them running or chucking one up. the odds of getting the ball back from them twice in less than 6 minutes are worse than their crappy odds of completing a pass

i really didnt think it was a bad decision, but i also didnt think it was the right one given the odds of getting it back twice. if we score either way we probably needed an onside kick, so punting and stopping them we still had a shot.. if we had stopped them and gotten it back with 4 to to we probably still lose.
i would have gone for it down 2 scores

 

[Millhouse]

i really didnt think it was a bad decision, but i also didnt think it was the right one given the odds of getting it back twice. if we score either way we probably needed an onside kick, so punting and stopping them we still had a shot.. if we had stopped them and gotten it back with 4 to to we probably still lose.
i would have gone for it down 2 scores

there have been far worse punts here. but that doesn't make me feel much better

 

[oldpinepoint]

Wait Syracuse is in the NFL?

 

[CusefanATL]

Using NFL data average defense vs average offense, you only need a 14% chance of making the first down to be indifferent between punting and going for it.

Our defense vs Clemson's offense is anything but average. That should knock the threshold for going for it way way down.

Big meatheaded mistake that took some of the shine off an otherwise admirable performance.

Don't let yourself get fooled by fumbles, fumbles are great but they're not predictive at all.

Lame decision

Or it kept the shine on the performance... 37-27 looks a lot better than 44-27 or even 40-27.

 

[RandygoCuse]

Of course, if every team went for it on 4th, it would change the data. Right now, it's worth it to go for it, because even if you don't get it, the data is based on the fact that the other team will punt if it's 4th and they aren't in field go range. If your opponent doesn't punt (which would mean advancing the ball further than they do now), than it becomes more risky for you to go for it on 4th.

 

[Millhouse]

Of course, if every team went for it on 4th, it would change the data. Right now, it's worth it to go for it, because even if you don't get it, the data is based on the fact that the other team will punt if it's 4th and they aren't in field go range. If your opponent doesn't punt (which would mean advancing the ball further than they do now), than it becomes more risky for you to go for it on 4th.

if your opponents become better on offense because they get smarter on fourth down, that's all the more reason to try keep the ball. better opposing offenses lower the needed breakeven odds of your own conversion