I don't see a talent evaluation problem or a player development problem. I see an unrealistic expectations problem amplified by the effect of unexpected roster turn over, scholarship reductions and injuries.
Here are the incoming Freshman classes over the last few seasons
2009-10 Triche, Southerland & Riley
2010-11 Melo, Fair, Waiters & Keita
2011-12 Christmas, MCW & Cooney
2012-13 Coleman & Grant
2013-14 Ennis, Roberson, Johnson, Patterson, Obokoh
2014-15 McCullough & Joseph
2015-16 Lydon, Richardson & Howard
Do you really feel like there are a lot of guys mixed in there that were misses or that failed to develop consistent with staff expectations in the time that they were here?
The first thing is that none of us have any idea what the coaches' expectations were when they extended an offer to a guy. I mean certainly the staff didn't expect the same production from Ennis as Obokoh. You have to take into account what the staff's expectations for a guy were. Development means different things for different guys. Obokoh was the fifth member of a 5 man class. Something tells me that they knew Obokoh was a project and like other big man projects he might never really develop to the point that he would contribute. We've had those guys since the beginning of time Peter Wynne, John Karpis, George Papadokas, Erik Rogers, Sean Williams, Dave Siock, JB Reafsnyder, Elvir Ovcina, Billy Celuk, Ethan Cole, Greg Davis, Matt Gorman, Devin Brennan-McBride. Some end up making a contribution, others not.
Keep in mind that we have (well had) 13 scholarships to give out and JB never really plays more than 8 maybe 9 guys, so several scholarships are going to go to guys that for one reason or another (redshirt, development, gift to a walk-on) have to happy with no realistic chance to play their freshman and possibly sophomore years.
I assume the staff gave BJ a scholarship knowing he wasn't likely to come in and be a big contributor early in his career. After all he was exceptionally young and on top of that he was not physically developed. Would he have been a contributor this year and next had he stayed in the program...I personally believe he would have had DNic type developmental arc. Unfortunately, where it was sanctions and scholarship reductions or him not believing he was getting a fair shake from the staff we won't find out what he might have developed into here.
If I were to guess, I would think the only guys on the list that didn't/aren't really meeting the staffs expectations would be Coleman (due to significant injuries), Roberson (who may still) and Joseph. Of all those guys Joseph is really the only guy that looks like a true swing and miss to me. I think the staff felt he could come in and be a "Syracuse" starting point guard by his sophomore year and instead it looks like they have completely written him off. I would be willing to bet that everyone else that has come in has performed with a degree to the expectations that the staff had for them up to the point they are at in their career or that they left the program.
Losing players early and losing scholarships doesn't make players develop more quickly, it just heightens the need for those players to do things you may have known all along that they weren't really capable of doing. Recruiting and filling out a roster isn't fantasy football, it can't necessarily be done the minute a spot opens or a need becomes apparent. It usually takes time to build relationships with kids to get them to come here. They types of talent that you can get to drop other plans on a moments notice and come probably aren't the types of guys that we would be satisfied plugging into major roles.