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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 191381, member: 289"] After we beat Louisville by a point, (and not long after we beat West Virginia by 2 and Georgetown by 3 in overtime), it was said that these games were good practice for the type of games we would have to win to win the national championship. Jim Boeheim pointed out that you could win 9 straight close games and still lose the tenth. Someone suggested that it was like flipping a coin: no mater how many times it row it comes up heads it’s still got a 50% chance of being heads the next time. I like to think that there is a nack for winning close games or team qualities that allow us to do so when other teams would have lost those games. But I think it’s important to limit how many close games we have on the way to a possible second national title. I decided to look at the teams that have won national championships and see how “rocky” their roads to the title games were. I began with the 1985 tournament, when the field went to 64 teams such that the winner had to win 6 games. In 1985 Villanova was 19-10 and unranked when the tournament began. They were #8 see. They won games by 2,4,3,12,7 and 2 points, a total of 30 points. They had five games decided by 10 points or less out of 6. I’ll abbreviate that thusly: 1985 Villanova 19-10 unranked 8S 2,4,3,12,7,2 = 30 /5 close I’ll list the highest ranking the team got in either poll and when a game goes into over time, I’ll list the margin as “E”, for even and count that as a close game even if the final margin may occasionally have been double figures. 1985 Villanova 19-10 unranked 8S 2,4,3,12,7,2 = 30 /5 close 1986 Louisville 26-7 #7 2S 20,14,15,8,11,3 = 71 /2 close 1987 Indiana 24-4 #2 1S 34,17,6,1,4,1 = 63 /4 close 1988 Kansas 21-11 unranked 6S 13,3,13,13,7,4 = 53 /3 close 1989 Michigan 24-7 #10 3S 5,9,5,37,2,E = 58 /4 close 1990 UNLV 29-5 #2 1S 30/11/2/30/9/30 = 112 /2 close 1991 Duke 26-7 #6 2S 29,15,4,17,2,7 = 84 /2 close 1992 Duke 28-2 #1 1S 26,13,12,E,3,20 = 74 /2 close 1993 North Carolina 28-4 #2 1S 20,45,6,7,10,6 = 94 /3 close 1994 Arkansas 25-3 #1 1S 15,12,19,8,9,4 = 67 /3 close 1995 UCLA 25-2 #1 1S 36,1,19,6,13,4 = 79 /2 close 1996 Kentucky 28-2 #2 1S 38,24,31,20,7,9 = 129 /2 close 1997 Arizona 19-9 #13 4S 8/4/3/E/8/E = 23 /6 close 1998 Kentucky 29-4 #5 2S 15,27,26,2,E,19 = 79 /3 close 1999 Connecticut 28-2 #3 1S 25,22,10,5,6,3 = 71 /3 close 2000 Michigan State 26-7 #2 1S 27,12,17,11,12,13 = 92 /0 close 2001 Duke 29-4 #1 1S 43,13,13,10,11,10 = 100 / 0 close 2002 Maryland 26-4 #4 1S 15,30,10,8,9,12 = 84 /2 close 2003 Syracuse 24-5 #12 3S 11,12,1,16,11,3 = 54 /2 close 2004 Connecticut 27-6 #7 2S 17,17,20,16,1,9 = 80 /2 close 2005 North Carolina 27-4 #2 1S 28,27,1,6,16,5 = 83 /3 close 2006 Florida 27-6 #10 3S 26,22,4,13,15,16 = 96 /1 close 2007 Florida 29-5 #3 1S 43,7,8,8,10,9 = 85 /4 close 2008 Kansas 31-3 #4 1S 24,19,15,2,18,E = 78 /2 close 2009 North Carolina 28-4 #2 1S 43,14,21,12,14,17 = 121 /0 close 2010 Duke 29-5 #3 1S 29,15,13,7,21,2 = 87 /2 close 2011 Connecticut 24-9 #9 3S 29,11,7,2,1,12 = 62 /3 close The average pre-tournament record of a national champion has been 26-5. Their average ranking, (counting the two unranked teams as #26), has been #6. Their average seeding has been #2. They’ve averaged winning in the first round by 25 pints, the second round by 16 points, the Sweet 16 by 12 points, the Elite 8 by 10 points, the National semis by 9 points and the championship game by 8 points. Their average margin of victory for the entire tournament has been 79 points. They’ve had 3 close first round games, 6 in the second round, 11 in the Sweet 16, 15 in both the Elite 8 and Semis and 18, (of 27) in the final game. Overall they’ve averaged 2.5 games decided by under 10 points. Of their 68 close games, 26 were decided by less than 5 points in regulation and another 5 went to over time. 23 of 27 champions have had at least two games decided by less than 10 points or OT on their way to the title. Three teams avoided close games: the 2000 Michigan State, 2001 Duke and 2009 North Carolina teams. One team, the 1997 Arizona team, had nothing but close games. They won their title over defending national champion Kentucky, who the previous year, had won it’s 6 games by a record 129 points. I still fee l that the key is to avoid close games because you can’t control the result but it’s unlikely that we could win the national title without pulling a couple out of the fire. I hope we really are good at it. [/QUOTE]

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