The Transitive Property of March Madness

[SWC75]

I was looking though some NCAA brackets from previous years and happened to be looking at 2001. I remembered that year as a year where we got crushed by Kansas and I thought maybe, at least, we’d lost to a team that might go on to win a national championship. Then they got beat by Illinois, who got beat by Arizona who lost the title game to Duke and we wound up pretty far down the food chain. In fact, we lost to the Jayhawks by 29, who lost to the Illini by 16 who lost to the Wildcats by 6 who lost to the Blue Devils by 10, (notice how each successive team nickname is more intimidating). Duke, if you follow the logic of the numbers, would have beaten us by 61 points. Another way of putting it would be to say that we were 65 points away from a national championship. We needed 30 more points to beat the Jayhawks, who needed 17 to beat the Illini, who needed 7 to beat the Wildcats who needed 11 to beat the Blue Devils.

I made the same comparison with our much beloved 2010 team, (I’m using the year of the tournament to designate the team). They lost by 4 to Butler who lost by 2 to Duke. That team needed 8 more points to win a national championship. Of course this is strictly from the Department of Colossal Assumptions. But I thought it might be fun to rank our NCAA teams by how many points they were away from winning national championship.

2003 We didn’t need any transitive properties.
1987 We lost to Indiana by 1 = 2 points
1989 We lost to Illinois by 3 who lost to Michigan by 2 = 7 points
2010 We lost to Butler by 4 who lost to Duke by 2 = 8 points
1957 We lost to North Carolina by 9 = 10 points
1996 We lost to Kentucky by 9 = 10 points
1988 We lost to Rhode Island by 3 who lost to Duke by 1who lost to Kansas by 7 = 15 points
1995 We lost to Arkansas by 2 who lost to UCLA by 11 = 15 points
1998 We lost to Duke by 13 who lost to Kentucky by 2 = 17 points
2000 we lost to Michigan State by 17 points = 18 points
1992 We lost to Massachusetts by 6 who lost by Kentucky by 10 who lost to Duke by 1 = 20 points
1980 We lost to Iowa by 11 points who lost to Louisville by 8 = 21 points
1990 We lost by Minnesota by 7 who lost to Georgia Tech by 2 who lost to UNLV by 9 = 21 points
1984 We lost to Virginia by 8 who lost to Houston by 2 who lost to Georgetown by 9 = 22 points
1966 We lost to Duke by 10 who lost to Kentucky by 4 who lost to Texas Western by 7 = 24 points
1975 We lost to Kentucky by 16 who lost to UCLA by 7 = 25 points
1977 We lost to UNC Charlotte by 22 who lost to Marquette by 2 = 26 points
2004 We lost to Alabama by 9 who lost to Connecticut by 16 = 27 points
2009 We lost to Oklahoma by 13 who lost to UNC by 12 = 27 points
1978 We lost to Western Kentucky by 1 point who lost to Michigan State by 21 who lost to Kentucky by 3 = 28 points
1985 We lost to Georgia Tech by 17 who lost to Georgetown by 6 who lost to Villanova by 2 = 28 points
1999 We lost to Oklahoma State by 8 who lost to Auburn by 7 who lost to Ohio State by 8 who lost to Connecticut by 6 = 33 points
2005 We lost to Vermont by 3 who lost to Michigan State by 11 who lost to North Carolina by 16 = 33 points
1983 We lost to Ohio State by 5 who lost to North Carolina by 13 who lost to Georgia by 5 who lost to North Carolina State by 7 = 34 points
2011 We lost Marquette by 4 who lost to North Carolina by 18 who lost to Kentucky by 7 who lost to Connecticut by 1 = 34 points
1974 We lost to Oral Roberts by 4 who lost to Kansas by 3 who lost to Marquette by 13 who lost to North Carolina State by 12 = 35 points
1991 Lost to Richmond by 4 who lost to Temple by 13 who lost to North Carolina by 3 who lost to Kansas by 6 who lost to Duke by 7 = 38 points
1986 We lost to Navy by 12 who lost to Duke by 21 who lost to Louisville by 3 = 39 points
1994 We lost to Missouri by 10 who lost to Arizona by 20 who lost to Arkansas by 9 = 42 points
1976 We lost to Texas Tech by 13 who lost to Missouri by 11 who lost to Michigan by 7 who lost to Indiana by 18 = 43 points
2006 We lost to Texas A&M by 8 who lost to LSU by 1 who lost to UCLA by 14 who lost to Florida by 16 = 43 points
1979 We lost to Pennsylvania by 8 who lost to Michigan State by 34 = 44 points
2001 We lost to Kansas by 29 who lost to Illinois by 16 who lost to Arizona by 6 who lost to Duke by 10 = 65 points
1973 We lost to Maryland by 16 who lost to Providence by 14 who lost to Memphis by 17 who lost to UCLA by 21 = 72 points

Comments: That 1973 team was actually one of our better ones, (24-5). When we lose in the Big Dance, it’s not usually by a lot. 20 of 33 losses have been by less than 10 points. Only two have been by more than 20 and that was 24 years apart. But we’ve missed out on a lot of juicy confrontations over the years. Michigan State, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas and Kentucky come up a lot on those lists. Ten teams have won or been within 20 points of a national title. For the most part, those were the teams considered to be the strongest anyway.

 

[Flacusian]

Interesting angle. Enjoyable and thought provoking. Thanks SWC75!

 

[OttoMets]

Nice work. Interesting that many of what we consider our best teams ended up at the top of that list.

 

[moqui]

it doesn't change your results much, but in several of those seasons (74, 92, 94, 95, 2005) the Orange only needed one more point to register a victory, as they were all overtime losses.

 

[baggerbob]

3 out of 7 had DC,Sherm,and Stevie. 4 out of 13 had DC and Stevie.

 

[SWC75]

it doesn't change your results much, but in several of those seasons (74, 92, 94, 95, 2005) the Orange only needed one more point to register a victory, as they were all overtime losses.

True. I considered that but decided to go with the final result for simplicity. You could do it either way.