SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In it’s 14 years, 28 teams have played for the national championship. 17 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 10 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. Four had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only last year and in 2006 did we have a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
The BCS standings are out now and they list a Top 25 so I will use their rankings, rather than the writer’s or coach’s polls.
ALABAMA 9-0 #1
11/10 Texas A&M 7-2 #15
11/17 Western Carolina 1-9 (FCS)
11/24 Auburn 2-7
They dodged a bullet with that last drive vs. LSU. They have one more real obstacle to an undefeated regular season, Texas A&M and they get the Aggies at home. They still have the SEC title game to face, however and they looked more beatable vs. LSU than they had in their prior games. But that was the game they were going to lose- and they didn’t.
KANSAS STATE 9-0, #2
11/10 at Texas Christian 6-3
11/17 at Baylor 4-4
12/1 Texas 7-2 #17
The Wildcats had another impressive win vs. Oklahoma State but their star quarterback, Collin Klein was injured in that game so their near future is suddenly uncertain. Texas Christian, while finding the going tougher in the Big 12, is still a formidable opponent on the road. Baylor has a puncher’s chance and Texas, while not looking all that impressive is 7-2. At least K-State doesn’t face a conference title game.
OREGON 9-0, #34
11/10 at California 3-6
11/17 Stanford 6-2 #14
11/24 at Oregon State 6-1 #11
I’ been saying that this team might be better than the one two years ago because their defense is better. Then they win a 62-51 game. At least they won it. But now there is some reason to about the quality of this team. The last two games against Stanford and at Oregon State will be challenges and then they might have to play the Trojans again. Stay tuned.
NOTRE DAME 9-0, #4
11/10 at Boston College 2-6
11/17 Wake Forest 4-4
11/24 at Southern California 6-2 #19
Another undefeated team that barely survived. But they didn’t barely survive on the road vs. LSU or USC. They barely survived at home vs. Pittsburgh. Again, we have to wonder: How good are they really? That wasn’t a vintage Oklahoma team they beat. I doubt they could win a shoot-out vs. the Trojans the way Oregon did.
LOUISVILLE 9-0, #9
11/10 at Syracuse 4-4
11/24 Connecticut 3-5
11/29 at Rutgers 7-1 #23
The Cardinals smashed Temple after a bad start. We could make things interesting for them. I doubt Connecticut will. Then comes the “big one” vs. Rutgers. But if your “big one” is against Rutgers, you aren’t going to be playing for the national championship.
Overall: It’s still a question of whether the big four will win out. Last week I thought they all would. This week, I’m not so sure. Then there is the resume question: if they all win out, whoa re the top two? I still think it will be Alabama vs. Oregon.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
The BCS standings are out now and they list a Top 25 so I will use their rankings, rather than the writer’s or coach’s polls.
ALABAMA 9-0 #1
11/10 Texas A&M 7-2 #15
11/17 Western Carolina 1-9 (FCS)
11/24 Auburn 2-7
They dodged a bullet with that last drive vs. LSU. They have one more real obstacle to an undefeated regular season, Texas A&M and they get the Aggies at home. They still have the SEC title game to face, however and they looked more beatable vs. LSU than they had in their prior games. But that was the game they were going to lose- and they didn’t.
KANSAS STATE 9-0, #2
11/10 at Texas Christian 6-3
11/17 at Baylor 4-4
12/1 Texas 7-2 #17
The Wildcats had another impressive win vs. Oklahoma State but their star quarterback, Collin Klein was injured in that game so their near future is suddenly uncertain. Texas Christian, while finding the going tougher in the Big 12, is still a formidable opponent on the road. Baylor has a puncher’s chance and Texas, while not looking all that impressive is 7-2. At least K-State doesn’t face a conference title game.
OREGON 9-0, #34
11/10 at California 3-6
11/17 Stanford 6-2 #14
11/24 at Oregon State 6-1 #11
I’ been saying that this team might be better than the one two years ago because their defense is better. Then they win a 62-51 game. At least they won it. But now there is some reason to about the quality of this team. The last two games against Stanford and at Oregon State will be challenges and then they might have to play the Trojans again. Stay tuned.
NOTRE DAME 9-0, #4
11/10 at Boston College 2-6
11/17 Wake Forest 4-4
11/24 at Southern California 6-2 #19
Another undefeated team that barely survived. But they didn’t barely survive on the road vs. LSU or USC. They barely survived at home vs. Pittsburgh. Again, we have to wonder: How good are they really? That wasn’t a vintage Oklahoma team they beat. I doubt they could win a shoot-out vs. the Trojans the way Oregon did.
LOUISVILLE 9-0, #9
11/10 at Syracuse 4-4
11/24 Connecticut 3-5
11/29 at Rutgers 7-1 #23
The Cardinals smashed Temple after a bad start. We could make things interesting for them. I doubt Connecticut will. Then comes the “big one” vs. Rutgers. But if your “big one” is against Rutgers, you aren’t going to be playing for the national championship.
Overall: It’s still a question of whether the big four will win out. Last week I thought they all would. This week, I’m not so sure. Then there is the resume question: if they all win out, whoa re the top two? I still think it will be Alabama vs. Oregon.