SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 32,516
- Like
- 62,712
This is the point of the season when I look at the future schedules of undefeated teams to see who has the best chance to run the table and make the playoff. When the number of such teams falls below four, I chart the one-loss teams. I limit this to ‘power’ conference teams unless a ‘Group of 5’ team is in the Top ten of either the writer, coach’s or committee’s polls. I also have two fictional bowls for the two top mid-majors, (the ‘Pesci’ Bowl, named after vertically challenged but ever-feisty character actor Joe Pesci), and the two worst teams in the country, (the Ty-D Bowl, named after the Ty-D Bol toilet bowl cleaner). For the Pesci Bowl, I’ll keep track of the undefeated Group of 5 teams until there are less than two of them. Then I look at the one-loss G5 teams. For the Ty-D Bowl, I keep track of the winless teams until there are less than two of them. Then I’ll look at the 1-win teams. Rankings are by the writers/coaches/committee- when it comes out. I’ve decided to include each team’s points “Against Ranked Teams” (ART). See that post for details on how that is computed.
After WEEK 9
The Playoff contenders:
GEORGIA 9-0 (361-97) ART +100 ranking: 1/1/1
11/12 at Mississippi State 6-3 (293-216) ART +17
11/19 at Kentucky 6-3 (212-176) ART +38 ranking: UR/24/24
11/26 Georgia Tech 4-5 (157-252) ART -38
Comments: Those opponents aren’t going to roll over but they are likely to be knocked over.
OHIO STATE 9-0 (412-142) ART +58 ranking: 2/2/2
11/12 Indiana 3-6 (210-290) ART -29
11/19 at Maryland 6-3 (283-216) ART +15
11/26 MICHIGAN 9-0 (380-109) ART +40 ranking: 3/3/3
Comments: It looks like it will be the Buckeyes vs. the Wolverines again, with a playoff birth on the line. Obviously, one of them will no longer be undefeated after that game, which could open the door for Clemson, North Carolina, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Tennessee or Mississippi, all of whom are 8-1.
MICHIGAN 9-0 (380-109) ART +40 ranking: 3/3/3
11/12 Nebraska 3-6 (230-265) ART -23
11/19 Illinois 7-2 (223-94) ART +24 ranking: 21/20/21
11/26 at OHIO STATE 9-0 (412-142) ART +58 ranking: 2/2/2
Comments: Can the Illini be the spoilers? I’m guessing not but they can play defense.
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 9-0 (388-242) ART +93 ranking: 4/4/4
11/12 at Texas 6-3 (325-196) ART +52 ranking: 18/18/18
11/19 at Baylor 6-3 (345-221) ART +5
11/26 Iowa State 4-5 (204-147) ART +8
Comments: It’s a league with no bad teams and Iowa State has some famous upsets in their history.
The Pesci Bowl contenders:
COASTAL CAROLINA 8-1 (290-246)
11/12 Southern Mississippi 5-4 (228-219) ART -12
11/19 at Virginia 3-6 (163-203)
11/26 at James Madison 5-3 (281-180)
Comments: They could lose to any of their remaining teams – or run the table.
LIBERTY 8-1 (270-191) ART +6 ranking: 19/19/UR
11/12 at Connecticut 5-5 (185-246) ART -54
11/19 Virginia Tech 2-7 (182-226) ART +1
11/26 New Mexico State 3-5 (128-216)
Comments: They just beat Arkansas so none of these opponents will scare them.
TULANE 8-1 (296-152) ranking: 16/17/17
11/12 Central Florida 7-2 (321-169) ART +10 ranking: 22/21/22
11/17 Southern Methodist 5-4 (362-303) ART +2
11/26 at Cincinnati 7-2 (299-189) ART: 0
Comments: The Green Wave is a blast from the past. They were one of the teams that were great before WWII but haven’t done much since. Each of their remaining foes represent a big challenge.
The Ty-D Bowl contenders:
AKRON 1-8 (167-333) ART -86
11/8 Eastern Michigan 5-4 (243-272)
11/12 BYE
11/19 at Buffalo 5-4 (271-243)
11/26 at Northern Illinois 2-7 (268-299) ART +10
Comment: The Zips have one good chance to get off this list.
COLORADO 1-8 (140-362) ART -21
11/11 at Southern California 8-1 (369-227) ART +5 ranking: 8/7/8
11/19 at Washington 7-2 (347-242) ART +32 ranking: 24/23/25
11/26 Utah 7-2 (351-193) ART +18 ranking: 13/13/13
Comment: The Buffs are probably better than these other Ty-D-Bol contenders but a win by them would be a bigger upset than any of them.
MASSACHUSETTS 1-8 (107-274)
11/12 at Arkansas State 2-7 (233-280) ART -10
11/19 at Texas A&M 3-6 (216-278) ART +68
11/26 Army 3-5 (236-219) ART -24
Comments: All their remaining opponents have losing records – but better records than UMASS, who used to have a great program when they were on the FCS level- where they still belong.
NORTHWESTERN 1-8 (150-251) ART +15
11/12 at Minnesota 6-3 (275-128) ART -10
11/19 at Purdue 5-4 (265-228) ART +15
11/26 Illinois 7-2 (223-94) ART +24 ranking: 21/20/21
Comments: The Wildcats, in the Big Ten title game two years ago, will have to pull off a major upset to avoid 1-11.
SOUTH FLORIDA 1-8 (232-359) ART -25
11/12 Southern Methodist 5-4 (362-303) ART +2
11/18 at Tulsa 3-6 (272-299) ART -5
11/26 Central Florida 7-2 (321-169) ART +10 ranking: 22/21/22
Comment: It’s strange how this program has declined. Unless they can beat Tulsa, it’s looking like a 1-11 season for the Bulls.
If more than two teams are 1-11, I’ll use point differential as a tie-breaker.
After WEEK 9
The Playoff contenders:
GEORGIA 9-0 (361-97) ART +100 ranking: 1/1/1
11/12 at Mississippi State 6-3 (293-216) ART +17
11/19 at Kentucky 6-3 (212-176) ART +38 ranking: UR/24/24
11/26 Georgia Tech 4-5 (157-252) ART -38
Comments: Those opponents aren’t going to roll over but they are likely to be knocked over.
OHIO STATE 9-0 (412-142) ART +58 ranking: 2/2/2
11/12 Indiana 3-6 (210-290) ART -29
11/19 at Maryland 6-3 (283-216) ART +15
11/26 MICHIGAN 9-0 (380-109) ART +40 ranking: 3/3/3
Comments: It looks like it will be the Buckeyes vs. the Wolverines again, with a playoff birth on the line. Obviously, one of them will no longer be undefeated after that game, which could open the door for Clemson, North Carolina, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Tennessee or Mississippi, all of whom are 8-1.
MICHIGAN 9-0 (380-109) ART +40 ranking: 3/3/3
11/12 Nebraska 3-6 (230-265) ART -23
11/19 Illinois 7-2 (223-94) ART +24 ranking: 21/20/21
11/26 at OHIO STATE 9-0 (412-142) ART +58 ranking: 2/2/2
Comments: Can the Illini be the spoilers? I’m guessing not but they can play defense.
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 9-0 (388-242) ART +93 ranking: 4/4/4
11/12 at Texas 6-3 (325-196) ART +52 ranking: 18/18/18
11/19 at Baylor 6-3 (345-221) ART +5
11/26 Iowa State 4-5 (204-147) ART +8
Comments: It’s a league with no bad teams and Iowa State has some famous upsets in their history.
The Pesci Bowl contenders:
COASTAL CAROLINA 8-1 (290-246)
11/12 Southern Mississippi 5-4 (228-219) ART -12
11/19 at Virginia 3-6 (163-203)
11/26 at James Madison 5-3 (281-180)
Comments: They could lose to any of their remaining teams – or run the table.
LIBERTY 8-1 (270-191) ART +6 ranking: 19/19/UR
11/12 at Connecticut 5-5 (185-246) ART -54
11/19 Virginia Tech 2-7 (182-226) ART +1
11/26 New Mexico State 3-5 (128-216)
Comments: They just beat Arkansas so none of these opponents will scare them.
TULANE 8-1 (296-152) ranking: 16/17/17
11/12 Central Florida 7-2 (321-169) ART +10 ranking: 22/21/22
11/17 Southern Methodist 5-4 (362-303) ART +2
11/26 at Cincinnati 7-2 (299-189) ART: 0
Comments: The Green Wave is a blast from the past. They were one of the teams that were great before WWII but haven’t done much since. Each of their remaining foes represent a big challenge.
The Ty-D Bowl contenders:
AKRON 1-8 (167-333) ART -86
11/8 Eastern Michigan 5-4 (243-272)
11/12 BYE
11/19 at Buffalo 5-4 (271-243)
11/26 at Northern Illinois 2-7 (268-299) ART +10
Comment: The Zips have one good chance to get off this list.
COLORADO 1-8 (140-362) ART -21
11/11 at Southern California 8-1 (369-227) ART +5 ranking: 8/7/8
11/19 at Washington 7-2 (347-242) ART +32 ranking: 24/23/25
11/26 Utah 7-2 (351-193) ART +18 ranking: 13/13/13
Comment: The Buffs are probably better than these other Ty-D-Bol contenders but a win by them would be a bigger upset than any of them.
MASSACHUSETTS 1-8 (107-274)
11/12 at Arkansas State 2-7 (233-280) ART -10
11/19 at Texas A&M 3-6 (216-278) ART +68
11/26 Army 3-5 (236-219) ART -24
Comments: All their remaining opponents have losing records – but better records than UMASS, who used to have a great program when they were on the FCS level- where they still belong.
NORTHWESTERN 1-8 (150-251) ART +15
11/12 at Minnesota 6-3 (275-128) ART -10
11/19 at Purdue 5-4 (265-228) ART +15
11/26 Illinois 7-2 (223-94) ART +24 ranking: 21/20/21
Comments: The Wildcats, in the Big Ten title game two years ago, will have to pull off a major upset to avoid 1-11.
SOUTH FLORIDA 1-8 (232-359) ART -25
11/12 Southern Methodist 5-4 (362-303) ART +2
11/18 at Tulsa 3-6 (272-299) ART -5
11/26 Central Florida 7-2 (321-169) ART +10 ranking: 22/21/22
Comment: It’s strange how this program has declined. Unless they can beat Tulsa, it’s looking like a 1-11 season for the Bulls.
If more than two teams are 1-11, I’ll use point differential as a tie-breaker.
Last edited: