SWC75
Bored Historian
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Every October I start charting the future games and possible fates of three groups of teams:
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bol Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Here are the current lists:
Potential Playoff teams
(With the losses by Baylor and Minnesota there are now only three undefeated teams sso we welcome on board the 1 loss teams.)
ALABAMA 9-1 (468-175) Ranked: #5 by the playoff committee/#5 in the writer’s poll/#5 in the coaches’ poll/ Sagarin: #3
Sat 11.23 Western Carolina 3-8 (214-399) FCS Sagarin: #234
Sat 11/30 at Auburn 7-3 (308-178) Ranked #15/#16/#16 Sagarin: #13
Comments: Auburn will, as always, present a serious challenge in the finale. LSU would have to lose to Arkansas to give the Tide a shot at the SEC title game. Without Tua, they will have a hard time getting into the playoff.
BAYLOR 9-1 (349-205) Ranked: #14 /#13/#13/ Sagarin: #16
Sat 11/23 Texas 6-4 (361-299) Sagarin: #22
Sat 11/30 at Kansas 3-7 (245-331) Sagarin: #88
Comments: Are the Bears back? Maybe, watch out for Texas. And, even if they win out, they aren’t going to jump from #14 to the top 4. That comeback by the sooners killed their chances.
CLEMSON 11-0 (505-118) Ranked: #3/#3/#3 Sagarin: #2
BYE
Sat 11/30 at South Carolina 4-7 (266-275) Sagarin: #52
Comments: The Tigers are the only really good team in the conference and should beat the Gamecocks without a problem. They are taking no prisoners, just as they were at this time last year, when they won it all. Even the playoff teams couldn’t challenge them.
GEORGIA 9-1 (324-105) Ranked: #4/#4/#4 Sagarin: #5
Sat 11/23 Texas A&M 7-3 (340-203) Ranked UR/#24/#24 Sagarin: #19
Sat 11/30 Georgia Tech 2-8 (165-311) Sagarin: #103
Comments: Suddenly the Bulldogs are back in the picture, (they could tell Clemson about South Carolina). If they get past Texas A&M, they will be in the SEC title game against LSU. The SEC champion is going to get one of those four sports, no matter who it is.
LOUISIANA STATE 10-0 (478-238) Ranked: #1/#1/#1 Sagarin: #4
Sat 11/23 Arkansas 2-8 (223-362) Sagarin: #113
Sat 11/30 Texas A&M 7-3 (340-203) Ranked UR/#24/#24 Sagarin: #19
Comments: They can wrap up a spot in the SEC title game by rolling over the Razorbacks.
MINNESOTA 9-1 (357-209) Ranked #10/#11/#11 Sagarin: #20
Sat 11/23 at Northwestern 2-8 (145-235) Sagarin: #89
Sat 11/30 Wisconsin 8-2 (346-134) Ranked: #12/#14/#14 Sagarin: #10
Comments: Like Baylor, they probably needed to run the table to have a shot at the playoff. But if they can beat arch-rival Wisconsin and upset the Buckeyes, it might be possible.
OHIO STATE 10-0 (515-98) Ranked: #2/#2/#2 Sagarin: #1
Sat 11/23 PENN STATE 9-1 (368-135) Ranked: #8/#9/#9 Sagarin: #9
Sat 11/30 at Michigan 8-2 (330-164) Ranked #13/#12/#12 Sagarin: #8
Comments: The Buckeyes might just be the best team in the country. They won their first big confrontation with Wisconsin by 31 points. The next big game is against Penn State who they will play in Columbus. They have to go to Michigan but will Jim Harbaugh ever beat this team? Then they will likely face Minnesota in the Big Ten title game. They appear to be up to the task.
OKLAHOMA 9-1 (470-256) Ranked: #9/#8/#7 Sagarin: #6
Sat 11/23 Texas Christian 5-5 (323-269) Sagarin: #31
Sat 11/30 at Oklahoma State 7-3 (365-277) Ranked #21/#22/#23 Sagarin: #21
Comments: The Sooners are a scoring machine, (as usual). The question for them and any Big 12 team is: can they get in without a conference title game. Beating TCU and Oklahoma state isn’t going to be enough to put them in the top 4.
OREGON 9-1 (378-148) Ranked #6/#6/#6 Sagarin #7
Sat 11/23 at Arizona State 5-5 (247-235) Sagarin #47
Sat 11/30 Oregon State 5-5 (311-312) Sagarin #65
Comments: The Pac 12 winner has a shot at the playoff if that ‘1’ remains on their record. They can’t afford to slip up.
PENN STATE 9-1 (368-135) Ranked: #8/#9/#9 Sagarin: #9
Sat 11/23 at OHIO STATE 10-0 (515-98) Ranked: #2/#2/#2 Sagarin: #1
Sat 11/30 Rutgers 2-8 (153-386) Sagarin: #134
Comments: It’s disgusting but Penn State looks like Penn State again. But Ohio State is still Ohio State. I like their chances against Rutgers.
UTAH 9-1 (347-113) Ranked #7/#7/#8 Sagarin #11
Sat 11/23 at Arizona 4-6 (302-370) Sagarin #82
Sat 11/30 Colorado 4-6 (247-323) Sagarin #75
Comments: See Oregon.
Potential Pesci Bowl Teams
Since App State and SMU both lost, all the one-loss non-power conference teams are now in contention for the Pesci Bowl.
APPALACHIAN STATE 9-1 (384-199) Ranked #24/#23/#22 Sagarin: #30
Sat 11/23 (SW) Texas State 3-7 (187-332) Sagarin: #152
Fri 11/29 at Troy 5-5 (390-316) Sagarin: #95
Comments: it will be a surprise if the Mountaineers don’t make it to 12-1, (the Sun Belt has a playoff, likely against SW Louisiana, who is 8-2). But can they beat out both Boise and the Cincinnati-Memphis winner?
BOISE STATE 9-1 (361-213) Ranked: #20/#20/#19 Sagarin: #27
Sat 11/23 at Utah State 6-4 (280-267)Sagarin: #61
Fri 11/29 at Colorado State 4-6 (306-326) Sagarin: #105
Comments: The Broncos close with two road games but could finish 12-1, (they will likely play 8-2 San Diego State in the conference title game). Their Sagarin rating is high but it can be bested with the big games other teams have coming up. That’s the Bronco’s problem: no really big games left that would add to their reputation.
CINCINNATI 9-1 (314-206) Ranked #19/ #17/#17 Sagarin #26
Sat 11/23 Temple 7-3 (267-250) Sagarin #70
Fri 11/29 at MEMPHIS 9-1 (415-259) Ranked #18/#18/#18 Sagarin #24
Comments: The Bearcats are surging back into view, a decade after their peak under Brian Kelly. Each game will be progressively tougher, ending with a big confrontation with Memphis, the loser of which will drop out of contention for the Pesci Bowl and the winner of which is likely to be in it. It will be a double-header if Memphis wins the regular season finale. If Cincinnati wins, they will be playing SMU in the conference title game.
MEMPHIS 9-1 (415-259) Ranked: #18/#18/#18 Sagarin: #24
Sat 11/23 at South Florida 4-6 (233-264) Sagarin: #94
Fri 11/29 CINCINNATI 9-1 (314-206) Ranked #19/ #17/#17 Sagarin: #26
Comments: These Tigers have to win at South Florida and then comes the big game vs. Cincinnati. Those teams have the highest Sagarins except for Boise State so if they both make it to that game, (or those games), unscathed the winner is a virtual lock to be in the “Middle Dance”.
SOUTHERN METHODIST 9-1 (451-327) Ranked: #25/#21/#21 / Sagarin: #39
BYE
Sat 11/23 at NAVY 7-2 (341-197) Sagarin: #36
Sat 11/30 Tulane 6-4 (349-258) Sagarin: #59
Comments: It’s nice to see the Mustangs playing well after all they’ve been through over the years. But that trip to Navy will be a test and watch out for Tulane after that. But they can improve their positon with wins in those games and if Cincinnati beats Memphis, the Mustangs will be in the conference title game.
Potential Ty-D-Bol Teams
(New Mexico State and Rice won so we are into the one win teams.)
AKRON 0-10 (106-363) Sagarin: #210
Wed 11/20 at Miami University 6-4 (248-288) Sagarin: #86
Tue 11/26 Ohio University 5-6 (364-321) Sagarin: #96
Comments: The Ty-D-Bol was made for a team named the “Zips”.
MASSACHUSETTS 1-10 (213-576) Sagarin: #225
Sat 11/23 Brigham Young 6-4 (277-256) Sagarin: #49
Comments: With the introduction of the one win teams, we introduce you to the worst defense in the country.
NEW MEXICO STATE 1-9 (188-408) Sagarin: #164
Sat 11/23 TEXAS-EL PASO 1-9 (184-357) Sagarin: #193
Sat 11/30 at Liberty 6-4 (328-266) Sagarin: #116
Comments: the Aggies have made the “Little Dance” four times so they are old hands at this. Their schedule does not look too intimidating, (UTEP will be an interesting confrontation), but do not under-estimate this school’s ability to lose football games.
OLD DOMINION 1-9 (156-282) Sagarin: #167
Sat 11/23 at Middle Tennessee State 3-7 (252-311) Sagarin: #126
Sat 11/30 Charlotte 5-5 (317-355) Sagarin: #152
Comments: the monarchs are like one of those presidential candidates you still haven’t heard of. They are bad but probably not bad enough to get into the Ty-D-bol.
RICE 1-9 (165-281) Sagarin: #146
Sat 11/23 North Texas State 4-6 (332-344) Sagarin: #119
Sat 11/30 at TEXAS-EL PASO 1-9 (184-357) Sagarin: #193
Comments: The Rice Owls have splashed around the Ty-D-Bol three times and this could be #4. Amazingly, UTEP is ranked behind both New Mexico State and Rice, so they both have a chance to get off the snide against the Miners.
SOUTH ALABAMA 1-9 (172-310) Sagarin: #166
11/23 at Georgia State 6-4 (351-380) Sagarin: #104
11/29 Arkansas State 6-4 (336-351) Sagarin: #92
Comments: They could use Ryan Alexander.
TEXAS-EL PASO 1-9 (184-357) Sagarin: #193
Sat 11/23 at NEW MEXICO STATE 1-9 (188-408) Sagarin: #164
Sat 11/30 RICE 1-9 (165-281) Sagarin: #146
Comment: A convention of lousy teams.
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bol Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Here are the current lists:
Potential Playoff teams
(With the losses by Baylor and Minnesota there are now only three undefeated teams sso we welcome on board the 1 loss teams.)
ALABAMA 9-1 (468-175) Ranked: #5 by the playoff committee/#5 in the writer’s poll/#5 in the coaches’ poll/ Sagarin: #3
Sat 11.23 Western Carolina 3-8 (214-399) FCS Sagarin: #234
Sat 11/30 at Auburn 7-3 (308-178) Ranked #15/#16/#16 Sagarin: #13
Comments: Auburn will, as always, present a serious challenge in the finale. LSU would have to lose to Arkansas to give the Tide a shot at the SEC title game. Without Tua, they will have a hard time getting into the playoff.
BAYLOR 9-1 (349-205) Ranked: #14 /#13/#13/ Sagarin: #16
Sat 11/23 Texas 6-4 (361-299) Sagarin: #22
Sat 11/30 at Kansas 3-7 (245-331) Sagarin: #88
Comments: Are the Bears back? Maybe, watch out for Texas. And, even if they win out, they aren’t going to jump from #14 to the top 4. That comeback by the sooners killed their chances.
CLEMSON 11-0 (505-118) Ranked: #3/#3/#3 Sagarin: #2
BYE
Sat 11/30 at South Carolina 4-7 (266-275) Sagarin: #52
Comments: The Tigers are the only really good team in the conference and should beat the Gamecocks without a problem. They are taking no prisoners, just as they were at this time last year, when they won it all. Even the playoff teams couldn’t challenge them.
GEORGIA 9-1 (324-105) Ranked: #4/#4/#4 Sagarin: #5
Sat 11/23 Texas A&M 7-3 (340-203) Ranked UR/#24/#24 Sagarin: #19
Sat 11/30 Georgia Tech 2-8 (165-311) Sagarin: #103
Comments: Suddenly the Bulldogs are back in the picture, (they could tell Clemson about South Carolina). If they get past Texas A&M, they will be in the SEC title game against LSU. The SEC champion is going to get one of those four sports, no matter who it is.
LOUISIANA STATE 10-0 (478-238) Ranked: #1/#1/#1 Sagarin: #4
Sat 11/23 Arkansas 2-8 (223-362) Sagarin: #113
Sat 11/30 Texas A&M 7-3 (340-203) Ranked UR/#24/#24 Sagarin: #19
Comments: They can wrap up a spot in the SEC title game by rolling over the Razorbacks.
MINNESOTA 9-1 (357-209) Ranked #10/#11/#11 Sagarin: #20
Sat 11/23 at Northwestern 2-8 (145-235) Sagarin: #89
Sat 11/30 Wisconsin 8-2 (346-134) Ranked: #12/#14/#14 Sagarin: #10
Comments: Like Baylor, they probably needed to run the table to have a shot at the playoff. But if they can beat arch-rival Wisconsin and upset the Buckeyes, it might be possible.
OHIO STATE 10-0 (515-98) Ranked: #2/#2/#2 Sagarin: #1
Sat 11/23 PENN STATE 9-1 (368-135) Ranked: #8/#9/#9 Sagarin: #9
Sat 11/30 at Michigan 8-2 (330-164) Ranked #13/#12/#12 Sagarin: #8
Comments: The Buckeyes might just be the best team in the country. They won their first big confrontation with Wisconsin by 31 points. The next big game is against Penn State who they will play in Columbus. They have to go to Michigan but will Jim Harbaugh ever beat this team? Then they will likely face Minnesota in the Big Ten title game. They appear to be up to the task.
OKLAHOMA 9-1 (470-256) Ranked: #9/#8/#7 Sagarin: #6
Sat 11/23 Texas Christian 5-5 (323-269) Sagarin: #31
Sat 11/30 at Oklahoma State 7-3 (365-277) Ranked #21/#22/#23 Sagarin: #21
Comments: The Sooners are a scoring machine, (as usual). The question for them and any Big 12 team is: can they get in without a conference title game. Beating TCU and Oklahoma state isn’t going to be enough to put them in the top 4.
OREGON 9-1 (378-148) Ranked #6/#6/#6 Sagarin #7
Sat 11/23 at Arizona State 5-5 (247-235) Sagarin #47
Sat 11/30 Oregon State 5-5 (311-312) Sagarin #65
Comments: The Pac 12 winner has a shot at the playoff if that ‘1’ remains on their record. They can’t afford to slip up.
PENN STATE 9-1 (368-135) Ranked: #8/#9/#9 Sagarin: #9
Sat 11/23 at OHIO STATE 10-0 (515-98) Ranked: #2/#2/#2 Sagarin: #1
Sat 11/30 Rutgers 2-8 (153-386) Sagarin: #134
Comments: It’s disgusting but Penn State looks like Penn State again. But Ohio State is still Ohio State. I like their chances against Rutgers.
UTAH 9-1 (347-113) Ranked #7/#7/#8 Sagarin #11
Sat 11/23 at Arizona 4-6 (302-370) Sagarin #82
Sat 11/30 Colorado 4-6 (247-323) Sagarin #75
Comments: See Oregon.
Potential Pesci Bowl Teams
Since App State and SMU both lost, all the one-loss non-power conference teams are now in contention for the Pesci Bowl.
APPALACHIAN STATE 9-1 (384-199) Ranked #24/#23/#22 Sagarin: #30
Sat 11/23 (SW) Texas State 3-7 (187-332) Sagarin: #152
Fri 11/29 at Troy 5-5 (390-316) Sagarin: #95
Comments: it will be a surprise if the Mountaineers don’t make it to 12-1, (the Sun Belt has a playoff, likely against SW Louisiana, who is 8-2). But can they beat out both Boise and the Cincinnati-Memphis winner?
BOISE STATE 9-1 (361-213) Ranked: #20/#20/#19 Sagarin: #27
Sat 11/23 at Utah State 6-4 (280-267)Sagarin: #61
Fri 11/29 at Colorado State 4-6 (306-326) Sagarin: #105
Comments: The Broncos close with two road games but could finish 12-1, (they will likely play 8-2 San Diego State in the conference title game). Their Sagarin rating is high but it can be bested with the big games other teams have coming up. That’s the Bronco’s problem: no really big games left that would add to their reputation.
CINCINNATI 9-1 (314-206) Ranked #19/ #17/#17 Sagarin #26
Sat 11/23 Temple 7-3 (267-250) Sagarin #70
Fri 11/29 at MEMPHIS 9-1 (415-259) Ranked #18/#18/#18 Sagarin #24
Comments: The Bearcats are surging back into view, a decade after their peak under Brian Kelly. Each game will be progressively tougher, ending with a big confrontation with Memphis, the loser of which will drop out of contention for the Pesci Bowl and the winner of which is likely to be in it. It will be a double-header if Memphis wins the regular season finale. If Cincinnati wins, they will be playing SMU in the conference title game.
MEMPHIS 9-1 (415-259) Ranked: #18/#18/#18 Sagarin: #24
Sat 11/23 at South Florida 4-6 (233-264) Sagarin: #94
Fri 11/29 CINCINNATI 9-1 (314-206) Ranked #19/ #17/#17 Sagarin: #26
Comments: These Tigers have to win at South Florida and then comes the big game vs. Cincinnati. Those teams have the highest Sagarins except for Boise State so if they both make it to that game, (or those games), unscathed the winner is a virtual lock to be in the “Middle Dance”.
SOUTHERN METHODIST 9-1 (451-327) Ranked: #25/#21/#21 / Sagarin: #39
BYE
Sat 11/23 at NAVY 7-2 (341-197) Sagarin: #36
Sat 11/30 Tulane 6-4 (349-258) Sagarin: #59
Comments: It’s nice to see the Mustangs playing well after all they’ve been through over the years. But that trip to Navy will be a test and watch out for Tulane after that. But they can improve their positon with wins in those games and if Cincinnati beats Memphis, the Mustangs will be in the conference title game.
Potential Ty-D-Bol Teams
(New Mexico State and Rice won so we are into the one win teams.)
AKRON 0-10 (106-363) Sagarin: #210
Wed 11/20 at Miami University 6-4 (248-288) Sagarin: #86
Tue 11/26 Ohio University 5-6 (364-321) Sagarin: #96
Comments: The Ty-D-Bol was made for a team named the “Zips”.
MASSACHUSETTS 1-10 (213-576) Sagarin: #225
Sat 11/23 Brigham Young 6-4 (277-256) Sagarin: #49
Comments: With the introduction of the one win teams, we introduce you to the worst defense in the country.
NEW MEXICO STATE 1-9 (188-408) Sagarin: #164
Sat 11/23 TEXAS-EL PASO 1-9 (184-357) Sagarin: #193
Sat 11/30 at Liberty 6-4 (328-266) Sagarin: #116
Comments: the Aggies have made the “Little Dance” four times so they are old hands at this. Their schedule does not look too intimidating, (UTEP will be an interesting confrontation), but do not under-estimate this school’s ability to lose football games.
OLD DOMINION 1-9 (156-282) Sagarin: #167
Sat 11/23 at Middle Tennessee State 3-7 (252-311) Sagarin: #126
Sat 11/30 Charlotte 5-5 (317-355) Sagarin: #152
Comments: the monarchs are like one of those presidential candidates you still haven’t heard of. They are bad but probably not bad enough to get into the Ty-D-bol.
RICE 1-9 (165-281) Sagarin: #146
Sat 11/23 North Texas State 4-6 (332-344) Sagarin: #119
Sat 11/30 at TEXAS-EL PASO 1-9 (184-357) Sagarin: #193
Comments: The Rice Owls have splashed around the Ty-D-Bol three times and this could be #4. Amazingly, UTEP is ranked behind both New Mexico State and Rice, so they both have a chance to get off the snide against the Miners.
SOUTH ALABAMA 1-9 (172-310) Sagarin: #166
11/23 at Georgia State 6-4 (351-380) Sagarin: #104
11/29 Arkansas State 6-4 (336-351) Sagarin: #92
Comments: They could use Ryan Alexander.
TEXAS-EL PASO 1-9 (184-357) Sagarin: #193
Sat 11/23 at NEW MEXICO STATE 1-9 (188-408) Sagarin: #164
Sat 11/30 RICE 1-9 (165-281) Sagarin: #146
Comment: A convention of lousy teams.
