SWC75
Bored Historian
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Every October I start charting the future games and possible fates of three groups of teams:
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bol Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Here are the current lists:
Potential Playoff teams
ALABAMA 10-1 (534-178) Ranked: #5 by the playoff committee/#5 in the writer’s poll/#5 in the coaches’ poll/ Sagarin: #3 Against Ranked Teams +40 points
Sat 11/30 at Auburn 8-3 (360-178) Ranked #15/#16/#16 Sagarin: #14 ART: +64
Comments: Auburn will, as always, present a serious challenge in the finale. LSU would have to lose to Arkansas to give the Tide a shot at the SEC title game. Without Tua, they may have a hard time getting into the playoff.
BAYLOR 10-1 (373-215) Ranked: #9 /#11/#10/ Sagarin: #15 ART: +13
Sat 11/30 at Kansas 3-8 (276-372) Sagarin: #78 ART: -40
Comments: the bears play nothing but close games, it seems so Kansas could be a bigger problem than it seems . This team will be looking ahead to a rematch with the Sooners in the Big 12 title game. There they will be out for revenge after blowing a 28-3 lead in the regular season game. But they jumped from #14 to #9 in the committee ratings, so they might be a dark horse if they can avenge that game.
CLEMSON 11-0 (505-118) Ranked: #3/#3/#3 Sagarin: #2 ART: +28
Sat 11/30 at South Carolina 4-7 (266-275) Sagarin: #51 ART: +32
Comments: The Tigers should beat the Gamecocks without a problem. They are taking no prisoners, just as they were at this time last year, when they won it all. Even the playoff teams couldn’t challenge them.
GEORGIA 10-1 (343-118) Ranked: #4/#4/#4 Sagarin: #5 ART: +71
Sat 11/30 Georgia Tech 3-8 (193-337) Sagarin: #103 ART: -13
Comments: Suddenly the Bulldogs are back in the picture, (they could tell Clemson about South Carolina). They will be in the SEC title game against LSU. The SEC champion is going to get one of those four spots, no matter who it is.
LOUISIANA STATE 11-0 (534-258) Ranked: #2/#1/#1 Sagarin: #4 ART: +105
Sat 11/30 Texas A&M 7-4 (353-222) Ranked UR/#24/#24 Sagarin: #17 ART: +37
Comments: They wrapped up a spot in the SEC title game by rolling over Arkansas. They might make the playoff even if they lose. But I still have questions about whether they have a championship level defense.
MINNESOTA 10-1 (395-231) Ranked #8/#9/#9 Sagarin: #20 ART: +29
Sat 11/30 Wisconsin 9-2 (391-158) Ranked: #12/#13/#14 Sagarin: #9 ART: +38
Comments: Like Baylor, they probably needed to run the table to have a shot at the playoff. But if they can beat arch-rival Wisconsin and upset the Buckeyes, it might be possible.
OHIO STATE 11-0 (543-115) Ranked: #1/#2/#2 Sagarin: #1 ART: +98
Sat 11/30 at Michigan 9-2 (369-178) Ranked #13/#10/#11 Sagarin: #7 ART: +72
Comments: The Buckeyes might just be the best team in the country. They won their first big confrontation with Wisconsin by 31 points. Then they beat penn State 28-17 in a game that wasn’t really as close as that seems. They have to go to Michigan but will Jim Harbaugh ever beat this team? Then they will likely face Minnesota in the Big Ten title game. They appear to be up to the task.
OKLAHOMA 10-1 (498-280) Ranked: #7/#7/#7 Sagarin: #6 ART: +38
Sat 11/30 at Oklahoma State 8-3 (385-290) Ranked #21/#21/#21 Sagarin: #19 ART: +23
Comments: The Sooners are a scoring machine, (as usual). The question for them is: do they have a championship defense? Beating Oklahoma State and Baylor Probably isn’t going to be enough to put them in the top 4.
UTAH 10-1 (382-120) Ranked #6/#6/#6 Sagarin #10 ART +27
Sat 11/30 Colorado 5-6 (267-337) Sagarin #67 ART -19
Comments: They needed Oregon to stay at one loss so they could beat them and get that extra credit to make their case for the top 4. When Arizona State beat the Ducks, they may have knocked the Utes out of the playoff, as well.
Potential Pesci Bowl Teams
APPALACHIAN STATE 10-1 (419-212) Ranked #25/#22/#22 Sagarin: #30 ART: none
Fri 11/29 at Troy 5-6 (393-369) Sagarin: #101 ART: none
Comments: It will be a surprise if the Mountaineers don’t make it to 12-1, (the Sun Belt has a playoff, likely against SW Louisiana, who is 9-2). But can they beat out both Boise and the Cincinnati-Memphis winner?
BOISE STATE 10-1 (417-234) Ranked: #20/#20/#19 Sagarin: #26 ART: none
Fri 11/29 at Colorado State 4-7 (313-343) Sagarin: #109 ART: none
Comments: The Broncos also could finish 12-1, (they will play 8-4 Hawaii in the conference title game). Their Sagarin rating is high but it can be bested with the big games other teams have coming up. That’s the Bronco’s problem: no really big games left that would add to their reputation.
CINCINNATI 10-1 (329-219) Ranked #19/ #18/#17 Sagarin #29 ART: -10
Fri 11/29 at MEMPHIS 10-1 (464-269) Ranked #18/#17/#18 Sagarin #21 ART: +17
Comments: The Bearcats are surging back into view, a decade after their peak under Brian Kelly. Their confrontation with Memphis could be a double-header, (although Navy would slip into the ACC title game if Cincy beats Memphis while the midshipmen beat Houston). Could the Pesci Bowl make it a triple header?
MEMPHIS 10-1 (464-269) Ranked: #18/#17/#18 Sagarin: #21 ART: +17
Fri 11/29 CINCINNATI 10-1 (329-219) Ranked #19/ #17/#18 Sagarin: #29 ART: -10
Comments: See Cincinnati.
Potential Ty-D-Bol Teams
AKRON 0-11 (123-383) Sagarin: #208 ART: none
Tue 11/26 Ohio University 5-6 (364-321) Sagarin: #85 ART: none
Comments: The Ty-D-Bol was made for a team named the “Zips”.
MASSACHUSETTS 1-11 (237-632) Sagarin: #230 ART: none
Comments: We introduce you to the worst defense in the country. The only team that hasn’t scored at least 44 points against them is….Akron, the one team they’ve beaten, (37-29).
OLD DOMINION 1-10 (173-320) Sagarin: #169 ART: -6
Sat 11/30 Charlotte 6-5 (341-368) Sagarin: #118 ART: -17
Comments: The Monarchs are like one of those presidential candidates you still haven’t heard of. They are bad but probably not bad enough to get into the Ty-D-bol.
SOUTH ALABAMA 1-10 (187-338) Sagarin: #163 ART: -34
11/29 Arkansas State 7-4 (374-384) Sagarin: #81 ART: -32
Comments: They could use Ryan Alexander.
TEXAS-EL PASO 1-10 (219-401) Sagarin: #193 ART: none
Sat 11/30 RICE 2-9 (185-295) Sagarin: #141 ART: -21
Comment: They have the best chance to remove themselves from this list. But Rice is hot- they’ve won 2 in a row!
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bol Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Here are the current lists:
Potential Playoff teams
ALABAMA 10-1 (534-178) Ranked: #5 by the playoff committee/#5 in the writer’s poll/#5 in the coaches’ poll/ Sagarin: #3 Against Ranked Teams +40 points
Sat 11/30 at Auburn 8-3 (360-178) Ranked #15/#16/#16 Sagarin: #14 ART: +64
Comments: Auburn will, as always, present a serious challenge in the finale. LSU would have to lose to Arkansas to give the Tide a shot at the SEC title game. Without Tua, they may have a hard time getting into the playoff.
BAYLOR 10-1 (373-215) Ranked: #9 /#11/#10/ Sagarin: #15 ART: +13
Sat 11/30 at Kansas 3-8 (276-372) Sagarin: #78 ART: -40
Comments: the bears play nothing but close games, it seems so Kansas could be a bigger problem than it seems . This team will be looking ahead to a rematch with the Sooners in the Big 12 title game. There they will be out for revenge after blowing a 28-3 lead in the regular season game. But they jumped from #14 to #9 in the committee ratings, so they might be a dark horse if they can avenge that game.
CLEMSON 11-0 (505-118) Ranked: #3/#3/#3 Sagarin: #2 ART: +28
Sat 11/30 at South Carolina 4-7 (266-275) Sagarin: #51 ART: +32
Comments: The Tigers should beat the Gamecocks without a problem. They are taking no prisoners, just as they were at this time last year, when they won it all. Even the playoff teams couldn’t challenge them.
GEORGIA 10-1 (343-118) Ranked: #4/#4/#4 Sagarin: #5 ART: +71
Sat 11/30 Georgia Tech 3-8 (193-337) Sagarin: #103 ART: -13
Comments: Suddenly the Bulldogs are back in the picture, (they could tell Clemson about South Carolina). They will be in the SEC title game against LSU. The SEC champion is going to get one of those four spots, no matter who it is.
LOUISIANA STATE 11-0 (534-258) Ranked: #2/#1/#1 Sagarin: #4 ART: +105
Sat 11/30 Texas A&M 7-4 (353-222) Ranked UR/#24/#24 Sagarin: #17 ART: +37
Comments: They wrapped up a spot in the SEC title game by rolling over Arkansas. They might make the playoff even if they lose. But I still have questions about whether they have a championship level defense.
MINNESOTA 10-1 (395-231) Ranked #8/#9/#9 Sagarin: #20 ART: +29
Sat 11/30 Wisconsin 9-2 (391-158) Ranked: #12/#13/#14 Sagarin: #9 ART: +38
Comments: Like Baylor, they probably needed to run the table to have a shot at the playoff. But if they can beat arch-rival Wisconsin and upset the Buckeyes, it might be possible.
OHIO STATE 11-0 (543-115) Ranked: #1/#2/#2 Sagarin: #1 ART: +98
Sat 11/30 at Michigan 9-2 (369-178) Ranked #13/#10/#11 Sagarin: #7 ART: +72
Comments: The Buckeyes might just be the best team in the country. They won their first big confrontation with Wisconsin by 31 points. Then they beat penn State 28-17 in a game that wasn’t really as close as that seems. They have to go to Michigan but will Jim Harbaugh ever beat this team? Then they will likely face Minnesota in the Big Ten title game. They appear to be up to the task.
OKLAHOMA 10-1 (498-280) Ranked: #7/#7/#7 Sagarin: #6 ART: +38
Sat 11/30 at Oklahoma State 8-3 (385-290) Ranked #21/#21/#21 Sagarin: #19 ART: +23
Comments: The Sooners are a scoring machine, (as usual). The question for them is: do they have a championship defense? Beating Oklahoma State and Baylor Probably isn’t going to be enough to put them in the top 4.
UTAH 10-1 (382-120) Ranked #6/#6/#6 Sagarin #10 ART +27
Sat 11/30 Colorado 5-6 (267-337) Sagarin #67 ART -19
Comments: They needed Oregon to stay at one loss so they could beat them and get that extra credit to make their case for the top 4. When Arizona State beat the Ducks, they may have knocked the Utes out of the playoff, as well.
Potential Pesci Bowl Teams
APPALACHIAN STATE 10-1 (419-212) Ranked #25/#22/#22 Sagarin: #30 ART: none
Fri 11/29 at Troy 5-6 (393-369) Sagarin: #101 ART: none
Comments: It will be a surprise if the Mountaineers don’t make it to 12-1, (the Sun Belt has a playoff, likely against SW Louisiana, who is 9-2). But can they beat out both Boise and the Cincinnati-Memphis winner?
BOISE STATE 10-1 (417-234) Ranked: #20/#20/#19 Sagarin: #26 ART: none
Fri 11/29 at Colorado State 4-7 (313-343) Sagarin: #109 ART: none
Comments: The Broncos also could finish 12-1, (they will play 8-4 Hawaii in the conference title game). Their Sagarin rating is high but it can be bested with the big games other teams have coming up. That’s the Bronco’s problem: no really big games left that would add to their reputation.
CINCINNATI 10-1 (329-219) Ranked #19/ #18/#17 Sagarin #29 ART: -10
Fri 11/29 at MEMPHIS 10-1 (464-269) Ranked #18/#17/#18 Sagarin #21 ART: +17
Comments: The Bearcats are surging back into view, a decade after their peak under Brian Kelly. Their confrontation with Memphis could be a double-header, (although Navy would slip into the ACC title game if Cincy beats Memphis while the midshipmen beat Houston). Could the Pesci Bowl make it a triple header?
MEMPHIS 10-1 (464-269) Ranked: #18/#17/#18 Sagarin: #21 ART: +17
Fri 11/29 CINCINNATI 10-1 (329-219) Ranked #19/ #17/#18 Sagarin: #29 ART: -10
Comments: See Cincinnati.
Potential Ty-D-Bol Teams
AKRON 0-11 (123-383) Sagarin: #208 ART: none
Tue 11/26 Ohio University 5-6 (364-321) Sagarin: #85 ART: none
Comments: The Ty-D-Bol was made for a team named the “Zips”.
MASSACHUSETTS 1-11 (237-632) Sagarin: #230 ART: none
Comments: We introduce you to the worst defense in the country. The only team that hasn’t scored at least 44 points against them is….Akron, the one team they’ve beaten, (37-29).
OLD DOMINION 1-10 (173-320) Sagarin: #169 ART: -6
Sat 11/30 Charlotte 6-5 (341-368) Sagarin: #118 ART: -17
Comments: The Monarchs are like one of those presidential candidates you still haven’t heard of. They are bad but probably not bad enough to get into the Ty-D-bol.
SOUTH ALABAMA 1-10 (187-338) Sagarin: #163 ART: -34
11/29 Arkansas State 7-4 (374-384) Sagarin: #81 ART: -32
Comments: They could use Ryan Alexander.
TEXAS-EL PASO 1-10 (219-401) Sagarin: #193 ART: none
Sat 11/30 RICE 2-9 (185-295) Sagarin: #141 ART: -21
Comment: They have the best chance to remove themselves from this list. But Rice is hot- they’ve won 2 in a row!
