SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 34,491
- Like
- 67,130
Every October I start charting the future games and possible fates of three groups of teams:
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bowl Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Here are the current lists:
Potential Playoff teams
BAYLOR 11-1 (434-221) Ranked: #7 /#8/#8/ Sagarin: #15 ART: +13
Conference Championship vs. OKLAHOMA 11-1 (532-296) Ranked: #7/#6/#6 Sagarin: #6 ART: +63
Comments: The Bears finally got a blow-out against Kansas, (61-6). They now have the rematch with the Sooners in the Big 12 title game they’ve wanted since blowing a 28-3 lead. They are now #9 in the committee ratings and would go up after a win over the Sooners but probably not to the top 4.
CLEMSON 12-0 (543-121) Ranked: #3/#3/#3 Sagarin: #2 ART: +28
Conference championship: vs. Virginia 9-3 (404-282) Ranked #23/#22/#22 Sagarin: #30 ART: #12
Comments: The Tigers are taking no prisoners, just as they were at this time last year, when they won it all. Even the playoff teams couldn’t challenge them. I doubt Virginia will.
GEORGIA 11-1 (395-125) Ranked: #4/#4/#4 Sagarin: #5 ART: +71
Conference championship vs. LOUISIANA STATE 12-0 (584-265) Ranked: #2/#1/#1 Sagarin: #5 ART: +105
Comments: Suddenly the Bulldogs are back in the picture. They will be in the SEC title game against LSU. The SEC champion is going to get one of those four spots, no matter who it is.
LOUISIANA STATE 12-0 (584-265) Ranked: #2/#1/#1 Sagarin: #4 ART: +105
Conference championship vs. GEORGIA 11-1 (395-125) Ranked: #4/#4/#4 Sagarin: #3 ART: +71
Comments: They might make the playoff even if they lose. They can score with anyone but I still have questions about whether they have a championship level defense.
OHIO STATE 12-0 (599-142) Ranked: #1/#2/#2 Sagarin: #1 ART: +140
Conference Championship vs. Wisconsin 10-2 (429-175) Ranked: #8/#10/#10 Sagarin: #7 ART: +77
Comments: The Buckeyes are probably the best team in the country. They may be one of the great teams in college football history, (Barry Alvarez, who became the Wisconsin coach in 1990, calls them the best Big ten team he’s seen in that time, which would include three national champions.) They won their first big confrontation with Wisconsin by 31 points. Then they beat Penn State 28-17 in a game that wasn’t really as close as that seems. They went to Michigan to play a team that had seemed to be on a roll of their own and won by 29 points. Can Wisconsin use what they learned in that first game to beat them? I suspect that what they learned was that they can’t beat the Buckeyes and neither can anyone else.
OKLAHOMA 11-1 (532-296) Ranked: #6/#6/#6 Sagarin: #6 ART: +63
Conference championship vs. BAYLOR 11-1 (434-221) Ranked: #7 /#8/#8/ Sagarin: #15 ART: +13
Comments: The Sooners are a scoring machine, (as usual). The question for them is: do they have a championship defense? Beating Baylor may not be enough to put them in the top 4 if Utah wins and if Georgia can beat LSU, forget it.
UTAH 11-1 (427-135) Ranked #5/#5/#5 Sagarin #9 ART +27
Conference championship vs. Oregon 10-2 (430-189) Ranked #13/#13/#13 Sagarin #13 ART +9
Comments: They needed Oregon to stay at one loss so they could beat them and get that extra credit to make their case for the top 4. When Arizona State beat the Ducks, they may have knocked the Utes out of the playoff, as well.
Potential Pesci Bowl Teams
APPALACHIAN STATE 11-1 (467-225) Ranked #21/#20/#20 Sagarin: #28 ART: none
Conference championship vs. (SW) Louisiana 10-2 (466-214) Sagarin: #44 ART: none
Comments: We need to take a closer look at SW Louisiana, who is 10-2 and have actually out-scored their opposition by a slightly higher margin than the Mountaineers have. (Comparative scores: App State beat the Ragin Cajuns 17-7. But they lost to Georgia Southern, 21-24, who SWL beat 37-24. ASU beat Texas State 35-13 who lost to SWL 3-31But they aren’t ranked. ASU beat Coastal Carolina 56-37 but SWL beat them 48-7. ASU beat South Alabama 30-3. SWL beat them 37-27. ASU beat Troy 48-13 but SWL beat them 63-3. ASU beat Louisiana-Monroe 52-7 while SWL barely beat them 31-30. That’s a +2 for App State.) Can App State beat out both Boise and the Cincinnati-Memphis winner?
BOISE STATE 11-1 (448-258) Ranked: #19/#19/#17 Sagarin: #27 ART: none
Conference championship vs. Hawaii 9-4 (460-413) Sagarin: #76 ART: -39
Comments: The Broncos also could finish 12-1, (they will play 8-4 Hawaii in the conference title game). Their Sagarin rating is high but it can be bested with the big games other teams have coming up. That’s the Bronco’s problem: no really big games left that would add to their reputation.
MEMPHIS 11-1 (498-293) Ranked: #17/#16/#16 Sagarin: #18 ART: +34
Fri 11/29 CINCINNATI 10-2 (353-253) Ranked #20/ #21/#21 Sagarin: #32 ART: -12
Comments: There haven’t been a lot of rematches in college football history and even fewer consecutive rematches. I haven’t looked it up but my impression is that when both teams are good, the loser of the first game has a better chance to win the second one.
Potential Ty-D-Bowl Teams
AKRON 0-12 (126-435) Sagarin: #212 ART: none
Tue 11/26 Ohio University 5-6 (364-321) Sagarin: #85 ART: none
Comments: The Ty-D-Bowl was made for a team named the “Zips” and, being the only winless team, they are in. That win over Syracuse in the Dome was a long time ago, (2008).
MASSACHUSETTS 1-11 (237-632) Sagarin: #231 ART: none
Comments: We introduce you to the worst defense in the country. The only team that hasn’t scored at least 44 points against them is….Akron, the one team they’ve beaten, (37-29).
OLD DOMINION 1-11 (195-358) Sagarin: #172 ART: -6
Comments: The Monarchs are like one of those presidential candidates you still haven’t heard of. They are bad but probably not bad enough to get into the Ty-D-bowl.
TEXAS-EL PASO 1-11 (235-431) Sagarin: #194 ART: none
Comment: The Miners are an old Ty-D-Bowl hand, having been in it five times. Their only win is a two point win over Houston Baptist and ended the season with a flourish, losing to both Rice and New Mexico State, who have been on this list all year – until playing UTRP was their ticket off of it.
The Ty-D-Bowl contenders have finished their seasons of I’ve got to make a call here. It’s too bad there isn’t a four team playoff of the Ty-D-Bowl title. Akron has got to be in there because they are the only winless team. The other team has to be UMASS who has the lowest Sagarin ranking and one of the worst defenses ever to take the field and the worst point differential, (-395).
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bowl Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Here are the current lists:
Potential Playoff teams
BAYLOR 11-1 (434-221) Ranked: #7 /#8/#8/ Sagarin: #15 ART: +13
Conference Championship vs. OKLAHOMA 11-1 (532-296) Ranked: #7/#6/#6 Sagarin: #6 ART: +63
Comments: The Bears finally got a blow-out against Kansas, (61-6). They now have the rematch with the Sooners in the Big 12 title game they’ve wanted since blowing a 28-3 lead. They are now #9 in the committee ratings and would go up after a win over the Sooners but probably not to the top 4.
CLEMSON 12-0 (543-121) Ranked: #3/#3/#3 Sagarin: #2 ART: +28
Conference championship: vs. Virginia 9-3 (404-282) Ranked #23/#22/#22 Sagarin: #30 ART: #12
Comments: The Tigers are taking no prisoners, just as they were at this time last year, when they won it all. Even the playoff teams couldn’t challenge them. I doubt Virginia will.
GEORGIA 11-1 (395-125) Ranked: #4/#4/#4 Sagarin: #5 ART: +71
Conference championship vs. LOUISIANA STATE 12-0 (584-265) Ranked: #2/#1/#1 Sagarin: #5 ART: +105
Comments: Suddenly the Bulldogs are back in the picture. They will be in the SEC title game against LSU. The SEC champion is going to get one of those four spots, no matter who it is.
LOUISIANA STATE 12-0 (584-265) Ranked: #2/#1/#1 Sagarin: #4 ART: +105
Conference championship vs. GEORGIA 11-1 (395-125) Ranked: #4/#4/#4 Sagarin: #3 ART: +71
Comments: They might make the playoff even if they lose. They can score with anyone but I still have questions about whether they have a championship level defense.
OHIO STATE 12-0 (599-142) Ranked: #1/#2/#2 Sagarin: #1 ART: +140
Conference Championship vs. Wisconsin 10-2 (429-175) Ranked: #8/#10/#10 Sagarin: #7 ART: +77
Comments: The Buckeyes are probably the best team in the country. They may be one of the great teams in college football history, (Barry Alvarez, who became the Wisconsin coach in 1990, calls them the best Big ten team he’s seen in that time, which would include three national champions.) They won their first big confrontation with Wisconsin by 31 points. Then they beat Penn State 28-17 in a game that wasn’t really as close as that seems. They went to Michigan to play a team that had seemed to be on a roll of their own and won by 29 points. Can Wisconsin use what they learned in that first game to beat them? I suspect that what they learned was that they can’t beat the Buckeyes and neither can anyone else.
OKLAHOMA 11-1 (532-296) Ranked: #6/#6/#6 Sagarin: #6 ART: +63
Conference championship vs. BAYLOR 11-1 (434-221) Ranked: #7 /#8/#8/ Sagarin: #15 ART: +13
Comments: The Sooners are a scoring machine, (as usual). The question for them is: do they have a championship defense? Beating Baylor may not be enough to put them in the top 4 if Utah wins and if Georgia can beat LSU, forget it.
UTAH 11-1 (427-135) Ranked #5/#5/#5 Sagarin #9 ART +27
Conference championship vs. Oregon 10-2 (430-189) Ranked #13/#13/#13 Sagarin #13 ART +9
Comments: They needed Oregon to stay at one loss so they could beat them and get that extra credit to make their case for the top 4. When Arizona State beat the Ducks, they may have knocked the Utes out of the playoff, as well.
Potential Pesci Bowl Teams
APPALACHIAN STATE 11-1 (467-225) Ranked #21/#20/#20 Sagarin: #28 ART: none
Conference championship vs. (SW) Louisiana 10-2 (466-214) Sagarin: #44 ART: none
Comments: We need to take a closer look at SW Louisiana, who is 10-2 and have actually out-scored their opposition by a slightly higher margin than the Mountaineers have. (Comparative scores: App State beat the Ragin Cajuns 17-7. But they lost to Georgia Southern, 21-24, who SWL beat 37-24. ASU beat Texas State 35-13 who lost to SWL 3-31But they aren’t ranked. ASU beat Coastal Carolina 56-37 but SWL beat them 48-7. ASU beat South Alabama 30-3. SWL beat them 37-27. ASU beat Troy 48-13 but SWL beat them 63-3. ASU beat Louisiana-Monroe 52-7 while SWL barely beat them 31-30. That’s a +2 for App State.) Can App State beat out both Boise and the Cincinnati-Memphis winner?
BOISE STATE 11-1 (448-258) Ranked: #19/#19/#17 Sagarin: #27 ART: none
Conference championship vs. Hawaii 9-4 (460-413) Sagarin: #76 ART: -39
Comments: The Broncos also could finish 12-1, (they will play 8-4 Hawaii in the conference title game). Their Sagarin rating is high but it can be bested with the big games other teams have coming up. That’s the Bronco’s problem: no really big games left that would add to their reputation.
MEMPHIS 11-1 (498-293) Ranked: #17/#16/#16 Sagarin: #18 ART: +34
Fri 11/29 CINCINNATI 10-2 (353-253) Ranked #20/ #21/#21 Sagarin: #32 ART: -12
Comments: There haven’t been a lot of rematches in college football history and even fewer consecutive rematches. I haven’t looked it up but my impression is that when both teams are good, the loser of the first game has a better chance to win the second one.
Potential Ty-D-Bowl Teams
AKRON 0-12 (126-435) Sagarin: #212 ART: none
Tue 11/26 Ohio University 5-6 (364-321) Sagarin: #85 ART: none
Comments: The Ty-D-Bowl was made for a team named the “Zips” and, being the only winless team, they are in. That win over Syracuse in the Dome was a long time ago, (2008).
MASSACHUSETTS 1-11 (237-632) Sagarin: #231 ART: none
Comments: We introduce you to the worst defense in the country. The only team that hasn’t scored at least 44 points against them is….Akron, the one team they’ve beaten, (37-29).
OLD DOMINION 1-11 (195-358) Sagarin: #172 ART: -6
Comments: The Monarchs are like one of those presidential candidates you still haven’t heard of. They are bad but probably not bad enough to get into the Ty-D-bowl.
TEXAS-EL PASO 1-11 (235-431) Sagarin: #194 ART: none
Comment: The Miners are an old Ty-D-Bowl hand, having been in it five times. Their only win is a two point win over Houston Baptist and ended the season with a flourish, losing to both Rice and New Mexico State, who have been on this list all year – until playing UTRP was their ticket off of it.
The Ty-D-Bowl contenders have finished their seasons of I’ve got to make a call here. It’s too bad there isn’t a four team playoff of the Ty-D-Bowl title. Akron has got to be in there because they are the only winless team. The other team has to be UMASS who has the lowest Sagarin ranking and one of the worst defenses ever to take the field and the worst point differential, (-395).
