SWC75
Bored Historian
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In past years I’ve kept track of the future schedules of undefeated teams to see who might remain seated in the musical chairs world of 2 and 4 team playoffs for the national championship. Now we have a 12 team playoff. The 5 highest ranked FBS conference champions and the 7 highest rated teams other than them will play off for the national championship. The four highest rated teams will get a bye. I think they should have had a 16 team playoff with all the conference champions, but that’s besides the point. The impact on my keeping track of the future challenges of the top teams is that I will look at every undefeated team. If that’s less than 12 teams, I’ll also look at ever 1 loss team. If that falls under 12, I’ll look at every 2 loss team, and so on. I won’t limit it to power conference teams.
What I will do is to simplify my listings by just showing what games they have ahead that will pit them against teams also on the list. I’ll give the won-lost record of each team, their point differentials, their ranking and their “against ranked teams” points from my post by that name. I’ll also give the date and location of the game, (signified by the use or non-use of the word “at”.
I also have been keeping track of the competition for two fictional bowls I created, the “Pesci Bowl” for the best Group of 5 teams and the Ty-D Bowl for the worst major college teams in the country. The Group of 5 can now get into the 12 team playoff so the Pesci Bowl will go to the best two Group of 5 teams that didn’t make the playoff. The Ty-D Bowl will continue to be the two worst teams. I’ll list winless teams until there are less than 2. Then I’ll list the 1 win teams for that.
Rankings are: By the playoff committee/ Per the Writers/ Per the Coaches
So we have 1 undefeated team, 4 one loss teams and 10 two loss teams. The undefeated team, 2 of the one loss teams and 9 of the two loss teams are in the so-called “power” conferences. They ought to get a 12-team field out of that. But conference title games could open the door for 3 loss teams. Three of the two loss power conference teams played in them. One won and two played each other. The top 12 teams ranked by the playoff committee now include the one undefeated team, 3 one loss teams, 7 two loss teams and one three loss team (Alabama). With Clemson’s victory over SMU, they decided to put them in as their #12 team, the only 3 loss team. Alabama probably would have made it if SMU had won that game, (they’d have had to do it in OT). They chose 7 two loss teams, 3 of whom, (Texas, Penn State and SMU) lost in their conference title games. Three of the 4 one loss teams made it. All are power conference teams: Army is out.
I decided to list all the 1, 2 and 3 loss teams in order of their rating against ranked teams, (ART- see my post on that subject). Every team in the playoff is ranked, so that’s who they have to play, or would have had to play, had they gotten into the playoff. The actual playoff teams are in bold.
GEORGIA 11-2 (431-265) #2/#2/#2 ART +150 Streak: 4 wins
The Bulldogs beat TEXAS during the regular season and in the SEC title game. They are on opposite sides of the bracket so if they meet a third time, it will be in the championship game.
ALABAMA 9-3 (426-207) #11/#11/#11 ART: +118 Streak: 1 win
Everybody enjoyed watching the Tide’s bubble get burst. They were a potent but inconsistent team.
TEXAS 11-2 (437-162) #3/#4/#4 ART: +118 Streak: 1 loss
They are undefeated against everyone but the Bulldogs.
NOTRE DAME 11-1 (478-163) #5/#3/#3 ART: +115 Streak: 10 wins
The Irish were real spoil-sports, having walloped previously unbeaten Navy and Army. They could be a dark horse in the playoff, the way they are playing.
OHIO STATE 10-2 (426-131) #6/#6/#7 ART: +96 Streak: 1 loss
They miss Kyle McCord. (Who?) But they will be in the playoff.
ARIZONA STATE 11-2 (430-277) #12/#10/#10 ART +91 Streak: 6 wins
The Sun Devils have been really coning on. They look like a dangerous opponent.
OREGON 13-0 (467-231) #1/#1/#1 ART: +91 Streak: 14 wins
Oregon is 12-0 but they haven’t exactly blown team way. They could be vulnerable. But they keep winning.
TENNESSEE 10-2 (447-167) #7/#7/#6 ART: +90 Streak: 2 wins
They may have been be better off NOT being in a conference title game. I’ve heard speculation that the 12 team playoff will mean the end of the conference title game.
PENN STATE 11-2 (437-213) #4/#5#5 ART: +53 Streak: 1 loss
Their terrible record in high profile games suggests this will be a difficult task. But you don’t win the big one until you do. They’ll be in the playoff, even if they don’t.
MISSISSIPPI 9-3 (450-167) #14/#15/#16 ART: +51 Streak: 1 win
The Rebels could wreak havoc in the playoff -if they can get in.
SOUTHERN METHODIST 11-2 (501-271) #10/#12/#12 ART: +48 Streak: 1 loss
The Ponys galloped all the way to the conference title game against CLEMSON and lost on a record long field goal. I think SMU was the best ACC team.
BRIGHAM YOUNG 10-2 (369-241) #17/#17/#17 ART +42 Streak: 1 win
The only team to beat SMU and they crushed K-State 38-9. So they must be pretty good. But they faltered late.
ILLINOIS 9-3 (347-265) #20/#21/#21 ART: +39 Streak: 3 wins
Again, a solid season but a bowl is all they got.
BOISE STATE 12-1 (508-285) #9/#8/#8 ART +36 Streak: 11 wins
If they weren’t in the playoff, I’d put them in the Pesci Bow, where they would have been, Iand have been) in other years.
CLEMSON 10-3 (462-290) #16/#13/#13 ART:+23 Streak: 1 win
The Tigers got in because of our win over U of Miami and Clemson’s win over SMU. Do they really belong?
MEMPHIS 10-2 (422-273) #25/#25/#24 ART: +19 Steak: 3 wins
They just whipped Tulane but they are done until a bowl game.
SYRACUSE 9-3 (391-344) #22/#22/#25 ART: +13 Streak: 3 wins
We won’t be in the playoff but I was proud to list SU here.
SOUTH CAROLINA 9-3 (379-214) #15/#14/#14 ART: +8 Streak: 6 wins
The Gamecock are another SEC team that could have been formidable playoff opponent.
UNLV 10-3 (471-285) #24/#24/#24 ART: +6 Streak: 1 loss
Another 10 win mid-major that we beat.
COLORADO 9-3 (414-264) #23/#20/#22 ART: +5 Streak:1 win
It would be fun to have them in the playoff but they are ranked too far down. Too bad we didn’t get them in the bowl game.
DUKE 9-3 (322-266) NR/NR/NR ART: +2 Streak: 3 wins
I didn’t realize Duke was having such a good season. It got them a nice bowl game.
INDIANA 11-1 (520-176) #8/#9/#9 ART: +1 Steak: 1 win
They start off with Notre Dame. Does that fulfill a dream or will it be a nightmare?
LIBERTY 8-3 (338-256) NR/NR/NR ART: None Streak: 1 loss
Will we have their QB next year?
LOUISIANA 10-3 (430-304) NR/NR ART: None Streak: 2 wins
These are the Ragin’ Cajuns, formerly Southwestern Louisiana. They are in Lafayette. They play Marshall for the Sun Belt title.
U of MIAMI 10-2 (530-287) #13/#15/#16 ART: None Steak: 1 loss
The Canes, like Louisiana, have yet to play a ranked team, but they have now! We put them on the bubble.
OHIO U. 10-3 (380-227) NR/NR/NR ART: None Streak: 5 wins
They beat Miami U. to win the MAC, avenging an earlier loss for their third straight 10 win season.
SAM HOUSTON 9-3 (278-240) NR/NR/NR ART: None Streak: 1 loss
Thank you for participating.
MARSHALL 10-3 (414-300) NR/NR/NR ART: -12 Streak: 6 wins
The Thundering Herd has been coming on strong. They beat Louisiana to win the Sun Belt.
ARMY 11-1 (395-180) #22/#19/#18 ART: -15 Streak: 2 wins
They still have to play with Navy, (now 8-3) with both schools having their best teams in a long time.
MISSOURI 9-3 (349-241) #19/#23//#20 ART: -44 Streak: 2 wins
Have a nice bowl.
NAVY 8-3 (355-255) NR/NR/NR ART: -57 Streak: 1 Win
They’ll have to beat Army to get consideration for the Pesci Bowl.
I don’t think the committee did a bad job with the 12 team field. Indiana didn’t beat a ranked team but they sure looked like a powerhouse in their 11 wins. Clemson won a power conference. It should be a wide-open tournament. I have no idea who will win but Notre Dame and Arizona State seem to be on a pretty good role. And Georgia continues to remind us that they are the program of the decade. They should have bene in last year’s tournament. If they had been, they might be going for their third Natty in a row.
As to the Pesci Bowl, BYU is now a power conference team and Boise State is in the 12 team tournament so they are out. I’d love to go with the two 10 win mid-majors we beat, Ohio U. and UNLV, but Memphis appears to have been better than either and I think Army at 11-1 needs to be represented as well. They are both in the American conference, (Army was the champion), but, in the grand tradition of modern bloated conferences, have no played each other. Therefore, this is the 2024 Pesci Bowl:
ARMY 11-1 (395-180) #22/#19/#18 ART: -15 Streak: 2 wins vs.
MEMPHIS 10-2 (422-273) #25/#25/#24 ART: +19 Steak: 3 wins
And here are the Ty-D Bowl contenders, a tight race.
KENT STATE 0-12 (167-529) NR/NR/NR ART: -92 Streak: 21 losses
No one can stop the flashes – from losing, Remember when they were a home for ex-SU players?
PURDUE 1-11 (189-479) NR/NR/NR ART: -147 Streak: 11 losses
This program has fallen apart since Jeff Brohm left.
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-11 (183-453) NR/NR/NR ART: none Streak: 10 losses
The Golden Eagles were long one of the best mid-majors. No longer.
FLORIDA STATE 2-10 (185-336) NR/NR/NR ART: -35 Streak: 1 loss
I’ve decided to have a 2-tiered Ty-D-Bowl. Southern Mississippi will test Kenty State’s ability to lost to anybody. That’s the Group of 5 Ty-D-Bowl. Purdue is clearly the worst Power Conference team. There were two 2-10 Power Conference teams Florida State, the country’s most disappointing team, was one of them.
MISSISSIPPI STATE 2-10 (310-409) NR/NR/NR ART: 0 Streak: 3 losses
The other 2-10 team looks like a pretty decent team.
These schools seasons are over so my two Ty-D Bowls are:
Power Conference: PURDUE 1-11 (189-479) NR/NR/NR ART: -147 Streak: 11 losses vs. FLORIDA STATE 2-10 (185-336) NR/NR/NR ART: -35 Streak: 1 loss
Group of Five: KENT STATE 0-12 (167-529) NR/NR/NR ART: -92 Streak: 21 losses vs. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-11 (183-453) NR/NR/NR ART: none Streak: 10 losses
What I will do is to simplify my listings by just showing what games they have ahead that will pit them against teams also on the list. I’ll give the won-lost record of each team, their point differentials, their ranking and their “against ranked teams” points from my post by that name. I’ll also give the date and location of the game, (signified by the use or non-use of the word “at”.
I also have been keeping track of the competition for two fictional bowls I created, the “Pesci Bowl” for the best Group of 5 teams and the Ty-D Bowl for the worst major college teams in the country. The Group of 5 can now get into the 12 team playoff so the Pesci Bowl will go to the best two Group of 5 teams that didn’t make the playoff. The Ty-D Bowl will continue to be the two worst teams. I’ll list winless teams until there are less than 2. Then I’ll list the 1 win teams for that.
Rankings are: By the playoff committee/ Per the Writers/ Per the Coaches
So we have 1 undefeated team, 4 one loss teams and 10 two loss teams. The undefeated team, 2 of the one loss teams and 9 of the two loss teams are in the so-called “power” conferences. They ought to get a 12-team field out of that. But conference title games could open the door for 3 loss teams. Three of the two loss power conference teams played in them. One won and two played each other. The top 12 teams ranked by the playoff committee now include the one undefeated team, 3 one loss teams, 7 two loss teams and one three loss team (Alabama). With Clemson’s victory over SMU, they decided to put them in as their #12 team, the only 3 loss team. Alabama probably would have made it if SMU had won that game, (they’d have had to do it in OT). They chose 7 two loss teams, 3 of whom, (Texas, Penn State and SMU) lost in their conference title games. Three of the 4 one loss teams made it. All are power conference teams: Army is out.
I decided to list all the 1, 2 and 3 loss teams in order of their rating against ranked teams, (ART- see my post on that subject). Every team in the playoff is ranked, so that’s who they have to play, or would have had to play, had they gotten into the playoff. The actual playoff teams are in bold.
GEORGIA 11-2 (431-265) #2/#2/#2 ART +150 Streak: 4 wins
The Bulldogs beat TEXAS during the regular season and in the SEC title game. They are on opposite sides of the bracket so if they meet a third time, it will be in the championship game.
ALABAMA 9-3 (426-207) #11/#11/#11 ART: +118 Streak: 1 win
Everybody enjoyed watching the Tide’s bubble get burst. They were a potent but inconsistent team.
TEXAS 11-2 (437-162) #3/#4/#4 ART: +118 Streak: 1 loss
They are undefeated against everyone but the Bulldogs.
NOTRE DAME 11-1 (478-163) #5/#3/#3 ART: +115 Streak: 10 wins
The Irish were real spoil-sports, having walloped previously unbeaten Navy and Army. They could be a dark horse in the playoff, the way they are playing.
OHIO STATE 10-2 (426-131) #6/#6/#7 ART: +96 Streak: 1 loss
They miss Kyle McCord. (Who?) But they will be in the playoff.
ARIZONA STATE 11-2 (430-277) #12/#10/#10 ART +91 Streak: 6 wins
The Sun Devils have been really coning on. They look like a dangerous opponent.
OREGON 13-0 (467-231) #1/#1/#1 ART: +91 Streak: 14 wins
Oregon is 12-0 but they haven’t exactly blown team way. They could be vulnerable. But they keep winning.
TENNESSEE 10-2 (447-167) #7/#7/#6 ART: +90 Streak: 2 wins
They may have been be better off NOT being in a conference title game. I’ve heard speculation that the 12 team playoff will mean the end of the conference title game.
PENN STATE 11-2 (437-213) #4/#5#5 ART: +53 Streak: 1 loss
Their terrible record in high profile games suggests this will be a difficult task. But you don’t win the big one until you do. They’ll be in the playoff, even if they don’t.
MISSISSIPPI 9-3 (450-167) #14/#15/#16 ART: +51 Streak: 1 win
The Rebels could wreak havoc in the playoff -if they can get in.
SOUTHERN METHODIST 11-2 (501-271) #10/#12/#12 ART: +48 Streak: 1 loss
The Ponys galloped all the way to the conference title game against CLEMSON and lost on a record long field goal. I think SMU was the best ACC team.
BRIGHAM YOUNG 10-2 (369-241) #17/#17/#17 ART +42 Streak: 1 win
The only team to beat SMU and they crushed K-State 38-9. So they must be pretty good. But they faltered late.
ILLINOIS 9-3 (347-265) #20/#21/#21 ART: +39 Streak: 3 wins
Again, a solid season but a bowl is all they got.
BOISE STATE 12-1 (508-285) #9/#8/#8 ART +36 Streak: 11 wins
If they weren’t in the playoff, I’d put them in the Pesci Bow, where they would have been, Iand have been) in other years.
CLEMSON 10-3 (462-290) #16/#13/#13 ART:+23 Streak: 1 win
The Tigers got in because of our win over U of Miami and Clemson’s win over SMU. Do they really belong?
MEMPHIS 10-2 (422-273) #25/#25/#24 ART: +19 Steak: 3 wins
They just whipped Tulane but they are done until a bowl game.
SYRACUSE 9-3 (391-344) #22/#22/#25 ART: +13 Streak: 3 wins
We won’t be in the playoff but I was proud to list SU here.
SOUTH CAROLINA 9-3 (379-214) #15/#14/#14 ART: +8 Streak: 6 wins
The Gamecock are another SEC team that could have been formidable playoff opponent.
UNLV 10-3 (471-285) #24/#24/#24 ART: +6 Streak: 1 loss
Another 10 win mid-major that we beat.
COLORADO 9-3 (414-264) #23/#20/#22 ART: +5 Streak:1 win
It would be fun to have them in the playoff but they are ranked too far down. Too bad we didn’t get them in the bowl game.
DUKE 9-3 (322-266) NR/NR/NR ART: +2 Streak: 3 wins
I didn’t realize Duke was having such a good season. It got them a nice bowl game.
INDIANA 11-1 (520-176) #8/#9/#9 ART: +1 Steak: 1 win
They start off with Notre Dame. Does that fulfill a dream or will it be a nightmare?
LIBERTY 8-3 (338-256) NR/NR/NR ART: None Streak: 1 loss
Will we have their QB next year?
LOUISIANA 10-3 (430-304) NR/NR ART: None Streak: 2 wins
These are the Ragin’ Cajuns, formerly Southwestern Louisiana. They are in Lafayette. They play Marshall for the Sun Belt title.
U of MIAMI 10-2 (530-287) #13/#15/#16 ART: None Steak: 1 loss
The Canes, like Louisiana, have yet to play a ranked team, but they have now! We put them on the bubble.
OHIO U. 10-3 (380-227) NR/NR/NR ART: None Streak: 5 wins
They beat Miami U. to win the MAC, avenging an earlier loss for their third straight 10 win season.
SAM HOUSTON 9-3 (278-240) NR/NR/NR ART: None Streak: 1 loss
Thank you for participating.
MARSHALL 10-3 (414-300) NR/NR/NR ART: -12 Streak: 6 wins
The Thundering Herd has been coming on strong. They beat Louisiana to win the Sun Belt.
ARMY 11-1 (395-180) #22/#19/#18 ART: -15 Streak: 2 wins
They still have to play with Navy, (now 8-3) with both schools having their best teams in a long time.
MISSOURI 9-3 (349-241) #19/#23//#20 ART: -44 Streak: 2 wins
Have a nice bowl.
NAVY 8-3 (355-255) NR/NR/NR ART: -57 Streak: 1 Win
They’ll have to beat Army to get consideration for the Pesci Bowl.
I don’t think the committee did a bad job with the 12 team field. Indiana didn’t beat a ranked team but they sure looked like a powerhouse in their 11 wins. Clemson won a power conference. It should be a wide-open tournament. I have no idea who will win but Notre Dame and Arizona State seem to be on a pretty good role. And Georgia continues to remind us that they are the program of the decade. They should have bene in last year’s tournament. If they had been, they might be going for their third Natty in a row.
As to the Pesci Bowl, BYU is now a power conference team and Boise State is in the 12 team tournament so they are out. I’d love to go with the two 10 win mid-majors we beat, Ohio U. and UNLV, but Memphis appears to have been better than either and I think Army at 11-1 needs to be represented as well. They are both in the American conference, (Army was the champion), but, in the grand tradition of modern bloated conferences, have no played each other. Therefore, this is the 2024 Pesci Bowl:
ARMY 11-1 (395-180) #22/#19/#18 ART: -15 Streak: 2 wins vs.
MEMPHIS 10-2 (422-273) #25/#25/#24 ART: +19 Steak: 3 wins
And here are the Ty-D Bowl contenders, a tight race.
KENT STATE 0-12 (167-529) NR/NR/NR ART: -92 Streak: 21 losses
No one can stop the flashes – from losing, Remember when they were a home for ex-SU players?
PURDUE 1-11 (189-479) NR/NR/NR ART: -147 Streak: 11 losses
This program has fallen apart since Jeff Brohm left.
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-11 (183-453) NR/NR/NR ART: none Streak: 10 losses
The Golden Eagles were long one of the best mid-majors. No longer.
FLORIDA STATE 2-10 (185-336) NR/NR/NR ART: -35 Streak: 1 loss
I’ve decided to have a 2-tiered Ty-D-Bowl. Southern Mississippi will test Kenty State’s ability to lost to anybody. That’s the Group of 5 Ty-D-Bowl. Purdue is clearly the worst Power Conference team. There were two 2-10 Power Conference teams Florida State, the country’s most disappointing team, was one of them.
MISSISSIPPI STATE 2-10 (310-409) NR/NR/NR ART: 0 Streak: 3 losses
The other 2-10 team looks like a pretty decent team.
These schools seasons are over so my two Ty-D Bowls are:
Power Conference: PURDUE 1-11 (189-479) NR/NR/NR ART: -147 Streak: 11 losses vs. FLORIDA STATE 2-10 (185-336) NR/NR/NR ART: -35 Streak: 1 loss
Group of Five: KENT STATE 0-12 (167-529) NR/NR/NR ART: -92 Streak: 21 losses vs. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-11 (183-453) NR/NR/NR ART: none Streak: 10 losses
