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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 3131195, member: 289"] Every October I start charting the future games and possible fates of three groups of teams: - The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff. - The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.) - The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bol Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.) Here are the current lists: [B]Potential Playoff teams[/B] ALABAMA 5-0 (259-74) Ranked: #1 in the writer’s poll/#1 in the coaches’ poll/ Sagarin: #2 Sat 10/12 at Texas A&M 3-2 (164-89) Sagarin: #21 Sat 10/19 Tennessee 1-4 (118-144) Sagarin: #90 Sat 10/26 Arkansas 2-3 (143-140) Sagarin: #93 BYE Sat 11/9 LOUISIANA STATE 5-0 (273-99) Ranked: #4/#6/ Sagarin: #5 Sat 11/16 at Mississippi State 3-2 (151-143) Sagarin: #26 Sat 11.23 Western Carolina 1-4 (104-191) FCS Sagarin: #237 Sat 11/30 at Auburn 5-1 (203-110) Ranked #12/#12 Sagarin: #8 Comments: A&M’s losses were to Clemson and Aubunr and they didn’t get blown out by either so this week’s game is unlikely to be a walk-over for the Tide. After that they have celar sailing until the LSU game, which they have at home. Mississippi State hasn’t beaten anybody good and got blown out by Auburn, who will present a serious challenge in the finale. BAYLOR 5-0 (194-77) Ranked: #22/#23/ Sagarin: #20 Sat 10/12 Texas Tech 3-2 (158-131) Sagarin: #43 Sat 10/19 at Oklahoma State 4-2 (239-165) Sagarin: #19 BYE Thu 10/31 West Virginia 3-2 (131-144) Sagarin: #51 Sat 11/9 at Texas Christian 3-2 (186-124) Sagarin: #34 Sat 11/16 OKLAHOMA 5-0 (267-95) Ranked: #6/#5/ Sagarin: #3 Sat 11/23 Texas 4-1 (209-133) Ranked: #11/#11/ Sagarin: #14 Sat 11/30 at Kansas 2-4 (137-178) Sagarin: #95 Comments: Are the bears back? Probably not. Their next six games are all against teams with winning records and they are likely going to get dinged 2-3 times. CLEMSON 5-0 (190-60) Ranked: #2/#2/ Sagarin: #4 Sat 10/12 Florida State 3-2 (166-148) Sagarin: #40 Sat 10/19 at Louisville 3-2 (162-130) Sagarin: #73 Sat 10/26 Boston College 3-3 (197-173) Sagarin: #83 Sat 11/2 Wofford 3-2 (162-112) Sagarin: #147 Sat 11/9 at North Carolina State 3-2 (149-104) Sagarin: #68 Sat 11/16 WAKE FOREST 5-0 (179-105) Ranked: #19/#17/ Sagarin: #36 BYE Sat 11/30 at South Carolina 2-3 (153-122) Sagarin: #38 Comments: The Tigers keep winning but their ranking keeps dipping. Still, they are the only really good team in the conference and have Wake at home. they are still a good bet to run the table. FLORIDA 6-0 (194-57) Ranked: #7/#7/ Sagarin: #11 Sat 10/12 at LOUISIANA STATE 5-0 (273-99) Ranked: #4/#6/ Sagarin: #5 Sat 10/19 at South Carolina 2-3 (153-122) Sagarin: #38 BYE Sat 11/2 vs. GEORGIA 5-0 (214-54) Ranked: #3/#3/ Sagarin: #9 in Jacksonville Sat 11/9 Vanderbilt 1-4 (98-187) Sagarin: #96 Sat 11/16 at Missouri 4-1 (195-68) Sagarin: #16 BYE Sat 11/30 Florida State 3-2 (166-148) Sagarin: #40 Comments: LSU and Georgia are big games, obviously. The trip to Missouri might be interesting and Florida State is a rivalry game. Then comes the conference title game, probably against the Tide. That’s a lot of work to do. GEORGIA 5-0 (214-54) Ranked: #3/#3/ Sagarin: #9 Sat 10/12 South Carolina 2-3 (153-122) Sagarin: #38 Sat 10/19 Kentucky 2-3 (117-122) Sagarin: #58 BYE Sat 11/2 vs. FLORIDA 6-0 (194-57) Ranked: #7/#7/ Sagarin: #11 in Jacksonville Sat 11/9 Missouri 4-1 (195-68) Sagarin: #16 Sat 11/16 at Auburn 5-1 (203-110) Ranked #12/#12/ Sagarin: #8 Sat 11/23 Texas A&M 3-2 (164-89) Sagarin: #21 Sat 11/30 Florida State 3-2 (166-148) Sagarin: #40 Comments: The Bulldogs just have the Gators as an undefeated opponent but the last four games will all be challenging, followed by the conference title game if they get there. This is a pretty strong-looking team, though. LOUISIANA STATE 5-0 (273-99) Ranked: #4/#6/ Sagarin: #5 Sat 10/12 FLORIDA 6-0 (194-57) Ranked: #7/#7/ Sagarin: #11 Sat 10/19 at Mississippi State 3-2 (151-143) Sagarin: #26 Sat 10/26 Auburn 5-1 (203-110) Ranked #12/#12/ Sagarin: #8 BYE Sat 11/9 at ALABAMA 5-0 (259-74) Ranked: #1/#1/ Sagarin: #2 Sat 11/16 at Mississippi 3-3 (163-154) Sagarin: #57 Sat 11/23 Arkansas 2-3 (143-140) Sagarin: #93 Sat 11/30 Texas A&M 3-2 (164-89) Ranked #24/#21/ Sagarin: #21 Comments: the SEC eats its own. These tigers have roared so far but here comes Florida and two weeks later Auburn and then Alabama. If they get past that it could be smooth sailing until the conference title game against the Florida-Georgia winner. If the Tigers make the playoff, they will have eanred it. MINNESOTA 5-0 (179-138) Unranked (UR)/#25/ Sagarin: #46 Sat 10/12 Nebraska 4-2 (172-159) Sagarin: #53 Sat 10/19 at Rutgers 1-4 (71-181) Sagarin: #139 Sat 10/26 Maryland 3-2 (207-106) Sagarin: #39 BYE Sat 11/9 PENN STATE 5-0 (235-37) Ranked: #10/#9 / Sagarin: #7 Sat 11/16 at Iowa 4-1 (137-44) Ranked #17/#18/ Sagarin: #17 Sat 11/23 at Northwestern 1-4 (72-99) Sagarin: #63 Sat 11/30 WISCONSIN 5-0 (217-29) Ranked: #8/#8/ Sagarin: #6 Comments: This appears to be the weakest undefeated team but that status could last for a while until Penn State comes to town. Then they get Iowa and finish with Wisconsin. I think that will be too much for them. OHIO STATE 6-0 (296-53) Ranked: #6/#4/ Sagarin: #1 BYE Fri 10/18 at Northwestern 1-4 (72-99) Sagarin: #63 Sat 10/26 WISCONSIN 5-0 (217-29) Ranked: #8/#8/ Sagarin: #6 BYE Sat 11/9 Maryland 3-2 (207-106) Sagarin: #39 Sat 11/16 at Rutgers 1-4 (71-181) Sagarin: #139 Sat 11/23 PENN STATE 5-0 (235-37) Ranked: #10/#9/ Sagarin: #7 Sat 11/30 at Michigan 4-1 (140-80) Ranked #16/#16/ Sagarin: #13 Comments: The Buckeyes might just be the best team in the country. They have big confrontations against Wisconsin and Penn State, both of whom also look very strong, but both those games are in Columbus. They have to go to Michigan but will Jim Harbaugh ever beat this team? OKLAHOMA 5-0 (267-95) Ranked: #6/#5/ Sagarin: #3 Sat 10/12 vs. Texas 4-1 (209-133) Ranked: #11/#11/ Sagarin: #14 in Dallas Thu 10/19 West Virginia 3-2 (131-144) Sagarin: #51 Sat 10/26 at Kansas State 3-2 (157-95) Sagarin: #32 BYE Sat 11/9 Iowa State 3-2 (188-111) Sagarin: #22 Sat 11/16 at BAYLOR 5-0 (194-77) Ranked: #22/#23/ Sagarin: #20 Sat 11/23 Texas Christian 3-2 (186-124) Sagarin: #34 Sat 11/30 at Oklahoma State 4-2 (239-165) Sagarin: #19 Comments: The Sooners are a scoring machine, (as usual). The question for them and any Big 12 team is always: do they have a championship defense? Every team they have left to play has a winning record but if Texas can’t beat them, I don’t think anybody else on this schedule will. PENN STATE 5-0 (235-37) Ranked: #10/#9/ Sagarin: #7 Sat 10/12 at Iowa 4-1 (137-44) Ranked #17/#18/ Sagarin: #17 Sat 10/19 Michigan 4-1 (140-80) Ranked #16/#16/ Sagarin: #13 Sat 10/26 at Michigan State 4-2 (167-109) Sagarin: #15 BYE Sat 11/9 at MINNESOTA 5-0 (179-138) Unranked (UR)/#25/ Sagarin: #46 Sat 11/16 Indiana 3-2 (165-118)/ Sagarin: #56 Sat 11/23 at OHIO STATE 6-0 (296-53) Ranked: #6/#4/ Sagarin: #1 Sat 11/30 Rutgers 1-4 (71-181) Sagarin: #139 Comments: It’s disgusting but Penn State looks like Penn State again. They are going to have to be to survive a gauntlet of Iowa, the two Michigan schools, what still might be an undefeated Minnesota team, the Buckeyes two weeks later. But they might do it. WAKE FOREST 5-0 (179-105) Ranked: #19/#17/ Sagarin: #36 Sat 10/12 Louisville 3-2 (162-130) Sagarin: #73 Sat 10/19 Florida State 3-2 (166-148) Sagarin: #40 BYE Sat 11/2 North Carolina State 3-2 (149-104) Sagarin: #68 Sat 11/9 at Virginia Tech 3-2 (135-149) Sagarin: #71 Sat 11/16 at CLEMSON 5-0 (190-60) Ranked: #2/#2/ Sagarin: #4 Sat 11/23 Duke 3-2 (164-110) Sagarin: #44 Sat 11/30 at Syracuse 3-2 (143-140) Sagarin: #50 Comment: Dave Clawson is a feisty coach with a feisty program. They aren’t national championship contenders but they keep putting together winning seasons at a school that for years was famously a doormat. Like Oklahoma, every remaining team on their schedule has a winning record. But the Deacons are less equipped than the Sooners to get through that unscathed. WISCONSIN 5-0 (217-29) Ranked: #8/#8/ Sagarin: #6 Sat 10/12 Michigan State 4-2 (167-109) Sagarin: #15 Sat 10/19 at Illinois 2-3 (159-142) Sagarin: #112 Sat 10/26 at OHIO STATE 6-0 (296-53) Ranked: #6/#4/ Sagarin: #1 BYE Sat 11/9 Iowa 4-1 (137-44) Ranked #17/#18/ Sagarin: #17 Sat 11/16 at Nebraska 4-2 (172-159) Sagarin: #53 Sat 11/23 Purdue 1-4 (124-165) Sagarin: #85 Sat 11/30 at MINNESOTA 5-0 (179-138) Unranked (UR)/#25/ Sagarin: #46 Comments: The Badgers dominate the Big ten West but often come up short against the big powers of the East. Their dominance of Michigan in a 35-14 win that wasn’t that close indicates that this may be the best Wisconsin team yet but can they beat the Buckeyes in Columbus? I’ll believe it when I see it. [B]Potential Pesci Bowl Teams[/B] APPALACHIAN STATE 4-0 (188-116) UR/UR/ Sagarin: #42 Wed 10/9 at (SW) Louisiana 4-1 (222-107) Sagarin: #67 Sat 10/19 (NE) Louisiana-Monroe 2-3 (158-195) Sagarin: #124 Sat 10/26 at South Alabama 1-5 (101-176) Sagarin: #170 Thu 10/31 Georgia Southern 2-3 (105-162) Sagarin: #105 Sat 11/9 at South Carolina 2-3 (153-122) Sagarin: #38 Sat 11/16 at Georgia State 3-2 (182-204) Sagarin: #102 Sat 11/23 (SW) Texas State 2-3 (99-148) Sagarin: #125 Fri 11/29 at Troy 2-3 (173-160) Sagarin: #97 Comments: If the Mountaineers can get past the Ragin’ Cajins, their only problem would seem to be the trip to South Carolina. But they aren’t scared of that. BOISE STATE 5-0 (183-80) Ranked: #14/#14/ Sagarin: #25 Sat 10/12 Hawaii 4-1 (185-137) Sagarin: #69 Sat 10/19 at Brigham Young 2-3 (111-156) Sagarin: #79 BYE Sat 11/2 at San Jose State 3-2 (138-138) Sagarin: #121 Sat 11/9 Wyoming 4-1 (155-102) Sagarin: #60 Sat 11/16 New Mexico 2-3 (139-198) Sagarin: #136 Sat 11/23 at Utah State 3-2 (160-128) Sagarin: #45 Fri 11/29 at Colorado State 1-5 (172-219) Sagarin: #131 Comments: The Broncos have already won at Florida State, overcoming a 13-31 start to do so, so noth9ign here will scare them, either. The two 4-1 teams both have to play on the blue field. MEMPHIS 5-0 (199-96) Ranked: #23/#20 Sagarin: #29 Sat 10/12 at Temple 4-1 (149-86) Sagarin: #81 Sat 10/19 Tulane 4-1 (186-108) Sagarin: #47 Sat 10/26 at Tulsa 2-3 (123-148) Sagarin: #78 Sat 11/2 SOUTHERN METHODIST 5-0 (265-170) Ranked: #21/#22/ Sagarin: #37 BYE Sat 11/16 at Houston 2-3 (169-160) Sagarin: #59 Sat 11/23 at South Florida 2-3 (134-149) Sagarin: #94 Fri 11/29 Cincinnati 4-1 (138-107) Ranked #25/UR/ Sagarin: #30 Comments: These Tigers have a bumpy road ahead with a 5-0 team and three 4-1 teams left to play. But only temple this week is a road game. SOUTHERN METHODIST 5-0 (265-170) Ranked: #21/#22 / Sagarin: #37 BYE Sat 10/19 Temple 4-1 (149-86) Sagarin: #81 Thu 10/24 at Houston 2-3 (169-160) Sagarin: #59 Sat 11/2 at MEMPHIS 5-0 (199-96) Ranked: #23/#20 Sagarin: #29 Sat 11/9 East Carolina 3-3 (124-140) Sagarin: #133 BYE Sat 11/23 at Navy 3-1 (144-77) Sagarin: #62 Sat 11/30 Tulane 4-1 (186-108) Sagarin: #47 Comments: it’s nice to see the Mustangs playing well after all they’ve been through over the years. They’ve got the same problem Memphis has: one unbeaten team plus three one loss teams. But two of those games are on the road and one of them is Memphis. [B]Potential Ty-D-Bol Teams[/B] AKRON 0-5 (83-190) Sagarin: #196 Sat 10/12 Kent State 2-3 (111-176) Sagarin: #104 Sat 10/19 Buffalo 2-4 (146-167) Sagarin: #101 Sat 10/26 at Northern Illinois 1-4 (87-140) Sagarin: #119 Sat 11/2 at Bowling Green 1-4 (73-204) Sagarin: #177 Tue 11/12 Eastern Michigan 3-2 (131-163) Sagarin: #106 Wed 11/20 at Miami University 2-3 (114-186) Sagarin: #92 Tue 11/26 Ohio University 2-3 (128-138) Sagarin: #91 Comments: They have 7 games left and 6 of those teams have losing records so there will be plenty of opportunities for Akron to get off the snide. Still, the Ty-D-Bol was made for a team named the “Zips”. NEW MEXICO STATE 0-6 (109-256) Sagarin: #159 Sat 10/12 at Central Michigan 3-3 (152-170) Sagarin: #103 BYE Sat 10/26 at Georgia Southern 2-3 (105-162) Sagarin: #105 BYE Sat 11/9 at Mississippi 3-3 (163-154) Sagarin: #57 Sat 11/16 Incarnate Word 3-2 (145-184) Sagarin: #193 Sat 11/23 Texas-El Paso 1-4 (89-166) Sagarin: #188 Sat 11/30 at Liberty 4-2 (148-126) Sagarin: #110 Comments: the Aggies have made the “Little Dance” four times so they are old hands at this. Their schedule does not look too intimidating but do not under-estimate this school’s ability to lose football games. RICE 0-6 (94-182) Sagarin: #148 BYE Sat 10/19 at Texas-San Antonio 2-3 (91-162) Sagarin: #151 Sat 10/26 Southern Mississippi 3-2 (138-152) Sagarin: #86 Sat 11/2 Marshall 2-3 (123-138) Sagarin: #100 BYE Sat 11/16 at Middle Tennessee State 2-3 (111-168) Sagarin: #114 Sat 11/23 North Texas State 2-3 (165-152) Sagarin: #89 Sat 11/30 at Texas-El Paso 1-4 (89-166) Sagarin: #188 Comments: The Rice Owls have splashed around the Ty-D-Bol three times and this could be #4. They aren’t going to play anybody scary but they don’t need to lose. [/QUOTE]

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