SWC75
Bored Historian
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Every October I start charting the future games and possible fates of three groups of teams:
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bol Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Here are the current lists:
Potential Playoff teams
ALABAMA 7-0 (341-115) Ranked: #1 in the writer’s poll/#1 in the coaches’ poll/ Sagarin: #2
Sat 10/26 Arkansas 2-5 (173-215) Sagarin: #88
BYE
Sat 11/9 LOUISIANA STATE 7-0 (351-140) Ranked: #2/#3/ Sagarin: #5
Sat 11/16 at Mississippi State 3-4 (174-199) Sagarin: #41
Sat 11.23 Western Carolina 1-6 (128-285) FCS Sagarin: #241
Sat 11/30 at Auburn 6-1 (254-120) Ranked #9/#101 Sagarin: #7
Comments: The Tide has clear sailing until the LSU game, which they have at home. Then Auburn will, as always, present a serious challenge in the finale. Then comes the SEC title game, which will probably be against the Georgia-Florida winner. Still any loss by the Tide is going to be an upset.
BAYLOR 7-0 (272-134) Ranked: #14/#14/ Sagarin: #16
BYE
Thu 10/31 West Virginia 3-4 (159-234) Sagarin: #53
Sat 11/9 at Texas Christian 3-3 (203-148) Sagarin: #33
Sat 11/16 OKLAHOMA 7-0 (353-136) Ranked: #5/#5/ Sagarin: #3
Sat 11/23 Texas 5-2 (286-215) Ranked: #15/#15/ Sagarin: #15
Sat 11/30 at Kansas 2-5 (185-228) Sagarin: #85
Comments: Are the Bears back? Maybe, but I don’t think they get by Oklahoma and watch out for Texas.
CLEMSON 7-0 (280-84) Ranked: #4/#2/ Sagarin: #4
Sat 10/26 Boston College 4-3 (242-197) Sagarin: #72
Sat 11/2 Wofford 4-2 (221-119) FCS Sagarin: #139
Sat 11/9 at North Carolina State 4-3 (189-159) Sagarin: #75
Sat 11/16 WAKE FOREST 6-1 (260-187) Ranked: #25/#23 Sagarin: #44
BYE
Sat 11/30 at South Carolina 3-4 (200-177) Sagarin: #34
Comments: The Tigers keep winning but their ranking has dipped. Their next four opponents all have winning records, (although one is an FCS team), Still, they are the only really good team in the conference and have Wake at home. They are still a good bet to run the table. Nobody on their remaining schedule, including anybody they might face in the ACC title game, is currently in the Top 25. I’ve heard it suggested that a 13-0 Clemson teams wouldn’t make the playoff because of strength of schedule. That’s hard to believe. No non-power conference team will be chosen ahead of them. The Pac 12 doesn’t have an unbeaten team. The Big 10 and SEC have a championship game so they can only have one unbeaten team each. The Oklahoma-Baylor winner will win the Big 12. If they run the table, Clemson, the Alabama-LSU winner, the Ohio State-Penn State winner and the Oklahoma-Baylor winner will be the Final Four. It’s the other teams in that group that are most imperiled, not Clemson.
LOUISIANA STATE 7-0 (351-140) Ranked: #2/#3/ Sagarin: #5
Sat 10/26 Auburn 6-1 (254-120) Ranked #9/#10/ Sagarin: #7
BYE
Sat 11/9 at ALABAMA 7-0 (341-115) Ranked: #1/#1/ Sagarin: #2
Sat 11/16 at Mississippi 3-5 (207-216) Sagarin: #57
Sat 11/23 Arkansas 2-5 (173-215) Sagarin: #88
Sat 11/30 Texas A&M 4-3 (216-153) Sagarin: #19
Comments: The SEC eats its own. These Tigers ruined Florida’s perfect record and now they get Auburn and then Alabama in what could be the game of the year in the regular season. If they get past that it could be smooth sailing until the conference title game against the Florida-Georgia winner. If the Tigers make the playoff, they will have earned it.
MINNESOTA 7-0 (255-150) Ranked #17/#16/ Sagarin: #29
Sat 10/26 Maryland 3-4 (249-180) Sagarin: #70
BYE
Sat 11/9 PENN STATE 7-0 (280-70) Ranked: #6/#6 / Sagarin: #6
Sat 11/16 at Iowa 5-2 (175-81) Ranked #20/#19/ Sagarin: #20
Sat 11/23 at Northwestern 1-5 (75-151) Sagarin: #68
Sat 11/30 Wisconsin 6-1 (278-53) Ranked: #13/#13/ Sagarin: #8
Comments: This appears to be the weakest undefeated team but that status could last until Penn State comes to town. Then they get Iowa and finish with Wisconsin. I think that will be too much for them.
OHIO STATE 7-0 (348-56) Ranked: #3/#4/ Sagarin: #1
Sat 10/26 Wisconsin 6-1 (278-53) Ranked: #13/#13/ Sagarin: #8
BYE
Sat 11/9 Maryland 3-4 (249-180) Sagarin: #70
Sat 11/16 at Rutgers 1-6 (78-258) Sagarin: #144
Sat 11/23 PENN STATE 7-0 (280-70) Ranked: #6/#6/ Sagarin: #6
Sat 11/30 at Michigan 5-2 (203-133) Ranked #19/#20/ Sagarin: #14
Comments: The Buckeyes might just be the best team in the country. They have big confrontations against Wisconsin and Penn State, both of whom also look very strong, but both those games are in Columbus. They have to go to Michigan but will Jim Harbaugh ever beat this team? Then they will face the Minnesota-Wisconsin winner in the Big Ten title game. They appear to be up to the task.
OKLAHOMA 7-0 (353-136) Ranked: #5/#5/ Sagarin: #3
Sat 10/26 at Kansas State 4-2 (181-112) Sagarin: #36
BYE
Sat 11/9 Iowa State 5-2 (260-149) Sagarin: #17
Sat 11/16 at BAYLOR 7-0 (272-134) Ranked: #14/#14/ Sagarin: #16
Sat 11/23 Texas Christian 3-3 (203-148) Sagarin: #33
Sat 11/30 at Oklahoma State 4-3 (266-210) Sagarin: #26
Comments: The Sooners are a scoring machine, (as usual). The question for them and any Big 12 team is always: do they have a championship defense? They look like they do. Every team they have left to play has a winning record except TCU, who is 3-3. They have to go to Baylor. But they will surely be favored in every game. And there is no conference title game.
PENN STATE 7-0 (280-70) Ranked: #6/#6/ Sagarin: #6
Sat 10/26 at Michigan State 4-3 (167-147) Sagarin: #21
BYE
Sat 11/9 at MINNESOTA 7-0 (255-150) Ranked #17/#16/ Sagarin: #29
Sat 11/16 Indiana 5-2 (234-146)/ Sagarin: #52
Sat 11/23 at OHIO STATE 7-0 (348-56) Ranked: #3/#4/ Sagarin: #1
Sat 11/30 Rutgers 1-6 (78-258) Sagarin: #144
Comments: It’s disgusting but Penn State looks like Penn State again. They are going to have to be to survive a gauntlet of four straight teams with winning records, two of whom are undefeated. But they might do it. And I like their chances against Rutgers.
Potential Pesci Bowl Teams
APPALACHIAN STATE 6-0 (257-130) #21/#22/ Sagarin: #30
Sat 10/26 at South Alabama 1-6 (114-213) Sagarin: #174
Thu 10/31 Georgia Southern 3-3 (135-189) Sagarin: #113
Sat 11/9 at South Carolina 3-4 (200-177) Sagarin: #34
Sat 11/16 at Georgia State 5-2 (241-246) Sagarin: #99
Sat 11/23 (SW) Texas State 2-4 (113-172) Sagarin: #135
Fri 11/29 at Troy 3-3 (210-173) Sagarin: #103
Comments: The Mountaineers only problem would seem to be the trip to South Carolina. But they aren’t scared of that and Sagarin rates them higher than the Gamecocks.
SOUTHERN METHODIST 7-0 (310-191) Ranked: #16/#17 / Sagarin: #37
Thu 10/24 at Houston 3-4 (216-215) Sagarin: #66
Sat 11/2 at MEMPHIS 6-1 (274-143) Ranked: UR/#25 Sagarin: #28
Sat 11/9 East Carolina 3-4 (152-181) Sagarin: #126
BYE
Sat 11/23 at Navy 5-1 (310-191) Sagarin: #38
Sat 11/30 Tulane 5-2 (252-162) Sagarin: #51
Comments: it’s nice to see the Mustangs playing well after all they’ve been through over the years. But three of their remaining opponents have a total of four losses and they play two of them on the road. (Note: they beat Houston 34-31 last night.)
Potential Ty-D-Bol Teams
AKRON 0-7 (86-237) Sagarin: #194
Sat 10/26 at Northern Illinois 2-5 (150-203) Sagarin: #108
Sat 11/2 at Bowling Green 2-5 (113-249) Sagarin: #159
Tue 11/12 Eastern Michigan 4-3 (188-219) Sagarin: #109
Wed 11/20 at Miami University 3-4 (157-248) Sagarin: #106
Tue 11/26 Ohio University 3-4 (209-215) Sagarin: #93
Comments: They have 5 games left and 4 of those teams have losing records so there will be plenty of opportunities for Akron to get off the snide. Still, the Ty-D-Bol was made for a team named the “Zips”.
NEW MEXICO STATE 0-7 (137-298) Sagarin: #162
Sat 10/26 at Georgia Southern 3-3 (135-189) Sagarin: #113
BYE
Sat 11/9 at Mississippi 3-5 (207-216) Sagarin: #57
Sat 11/16 Incarnate Word 5-2 (207-222) FCS Sagarin: #179
Sat 11/23 Texas-El Paso 1-5 (106-198) Sagarin: #187
Sat 11/30 at Liberty 5-2 (207-170) Sagarin: #117
Comments: the Aggies have made the “Little Dance” four times so they are old hands at this. Their schedule does not look too intimidating, (two teams are ranked even lower than they are), but do not under-estimate this school’s ability to lose football games.
RICE 0-7 (121-213) Sagarin: #143
Sat 10/26 Southern Mississippi 4-3 (213-224) Sagarin: #90
Sat 11/2 Marshall 4-3 (190-186) Sagarin: #95
BYE
Sat 11/16 at Middle Tennessee State 2-5 (154-229) Sagarin: #118
Sat 11/23 North Texas State 3-4 (225-227) Sagarin: #105
Sat 11/30 at Texas-El Paso 1-5 (106-198) Sagarin: #187
Comments: The Rice Owls have splashed around the Ty-D-Bol three times and this could be #4. They aren’t going to play anybody scary but they don’t need to to lose. Amazingly, UTEP is ranked behind both New Mexico State and Rice, so they both have a chance to get off the schneid against the Miners. If they both do, then we are into the one win tams, so the Aggies and the owls still wouldn’t be out of the woods.
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bol Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Here are the current lists:
Potential Playoff teams
ALABAMA 7-0 (341-115) Ranked: #1 in the writer’s poll/#1 in the coaches’ poll/ Sagarin: #2
Sat 10/26 Arkansas 2-5 (173-215) Sagarin: #88
BYE
Sat 11/9 LOUISIANA STATE 7-0 (351-140) Ranked: #2/#3/ Sagarin: #5
Sat 11/16 at Mississippi State 3-4 (174-199) Sagarin: #41
Sat 11.23 Western Carolina 1-6 (128-285) FCS Sagarin: #241
Sat 11/30 at Auburn 6-1 (254-120) Ranked #9/#101 Sagarin: #7
Comments: The Tide has clear sailing until the LSU game, which they have at home. Then Auburn will, as always, present a serious challenge in the finale. Then comes the SEC title game, which will probably be against the Georgia-Florida winner. Still any loss by the Tide is going to be an upset.
BAYLOR 7-0 (272-134) Ranked: #14/#14/ Sagarin: #16
BYE
Thu 10/31 West Virginia 3-4 (159-234) Sagarin: #53
Sat 11/9 at Texas Christian 3-3 (203-148) Sagarin: #33
Sat 11/16 OKLAHOMA 7-0 (353-136) Ranked: #5/#5/ Sagarin: #3
Sat 11/23 Texas 5-2 (286-215) Ranked: #15/#15/ Sagarin: #15
Sat 11/30 at Kansas 2-5 (185-228) Sagarin: #85
Comments: Are the Bears back? Maybe, but I don’t think they get by Oklahoma and watch out for Texas.
CLEMSON 7-0 (280-84) Ranked: #4/#2/ Sagarin: #4
Sat 10/26 Boston College 4-3 (242-197) Sagarin: #72
Sat 11/2 Wofford 4-2 (221-119) FCS Sagarin: #139
Sat 11/9 at North Carolina State 4-3 (189-159) Sagarin: #75
Sat 11/16 WAKE FOREST 6-1 (260-187) Ranked: #25/#23 Sagarin: #44
BYE
Sat 11/30 at South Carolina 3-4 (200-177) Sagarin: #34
Comments: The Tigers keep winning but their ranking has dipped. Their next four opponents all have winning records, (although one is an FCS team), Still, they are the only really good team in the conference and have Wake at home. They are still a good bet to run the table. Nobody on their remaining schedule, including anybody they might face in the ACC title game, is currently in the Top 25. I’ve heard it suggested that a 13-0 Clemson teams wouldn’t make the playoff because of strength of schedule. That’s hard to believe. No non-power conference team will be chosen ahead of them. The Pac 12 doesn’t have an unbeaten team. The Big 10 and SEC have a championship game so they can only have one unbeaten team each. The Oklahoma-Baylor winner will win the Big 12. If they run the table, Clemson, the Alabama-LSU winner, the Ohio State-Penn State winner and the Oklahoma-Baylor winner will be the Final Four. It’s the other teams in that group that are most imperiled, not Clemson.
LOUISIANA STATE 7-0 (351-140) Ranked: #2/#3/ Sagarin: #5
Sat 10/26 Auburn 6-1 (254-120) Ranked #9/#10/ Sagarin: #7
BYE
Sat 11/9 at ALABAMA 7-0 (341-115) Ranked: #1/#1/ Sagarin: #2
Sat 11/16 at Mississippi 3-5 (207-216) Sagarin: #57
Sat 11/23 Arkansas 2-5 (173-215) Sagarin: #88
Sat 11/30 Texas A&M 4-3 (216-153) Sagarin: #19
Comments: The SEC eats its own. These Tigers ruined Florida’s perfect record and now they get Auburn and then Alabama in what could be the game of the year in the regular season. If they get past that it could be smooth sailing until the conference title game against the Florida-Georgia winner. If the Tigers make the playoff, they will have earned it.
MINNESOTA 7-0 (255-150) Ranked #17/#16/ Sagarin: #29
Sat 10/26 Maryland 3-4 (249-180) Sagarin: #70
BYE
Sat 11/9 PENN STATE 7-0 (280-70) Ranked: #6/#6 / Sagarin: #6
Sat 11/16 at Iowa 5-2 (175-81) Ranked #20/#19/ Sagarin: #20
Sat 11/23 at Northwestern 1-5 (75-151) Sagarin: #68
Sat 11/30 Wisconsin 6-1 (278-53) Ranked: #13/#13/ Sagarin: #8
Comments: This appears to be the weakest undefeated team but that status could last until Penn State comes to town. Then they get Iowa and finish with Wisconsin. I think that will be too much for them.
OHIO STATE 7-0 (348-56) Ranked: #3/#4/ Sagarin: #1
Sat 10/26 Wisconsin 6-1 (278-53) Ranked: #13/#13/ Sagarin: #8
BYE
Sat 11/9 Maryland 3-4 (249-180) Sagarin: #70
Sat 11/16 at Rutgers 1-6 (78-258) Sagarin: #144
Sat 11/23 PENN STATE 7-0 (280-70) Ranked: #6/#6/ Sagarin: #6
Sat 11/30 at Michigan 5-2 (203-133) Ranked #19/#20/ Sagarin: #14
Comments: The Buckeyes might just be the best team in the country. They have big confrontations against Wisconsin and Penn State, both of whom also look very strong, but both those games are in Columbus. They have to go to Michigan but will Jim Harbaugh ever beat this team? Then they will face the Minnesota-Wisconsin winner in the Big Ten title game. They appear to be up to the task.
OKLAHOMA 7-0 (353-136) Ranked: #5/#5/ Sagarin: #3
Sat 10/26 at Kansas State 4-2 (181-112) Sagarin: #36
BYE
Sat 11/9 Iowa State 5-2 (260-149) Sagarin: #17
Sat 11/16 at BAYLOR 7-0 (272-134) Ranked: #14/#14/ Sagarin: #16
Sat 11/23 Texas Christian 3-3 (203-148) Sagarin: #33
Sat 11/30 at Oklahoma State 4-3 (266-210) Sagarin: #26
Comments: The Sooners are a scoring machine, (as usual). The question for them and any Big 12 team is always: do they have a championship defense? They look like they do. Every team they have left to play has a winning record except TCU, who is 3-3. They have to go to Baylor. But they will surely be favored in every game. And there is no conference title game.
PENN STATE 7-0 (280-70) Ranked: #6/#6/ Sagarin: #6
Sat 10/26 at Michigan State 4-3 (167-147) Sagarin: #21
BYE
Sat 11/9 at MINNESOTA 7-0 (255-150) Ranked #17/#16/ Sagarin: #29
Sat 11/16 Indiana 5-2 (234-146)/ Sagarin: #52
Sat 11/23 at OHIO STATE 7-0 (348-56) Ranked: #3/#4/ Sagarin: #1
Sat 11/30 Rutgers 1-6 (78-258) Sagarin: #144
Comments: It’s disgusting but Penn State looks like Penn State again. They are going to have to be to survive a gauntlet of four straight teams with winning records, two of whom are undefeated. But they might do it. And I like their chances against Rutgers.
Potential Pesci Bowl Teams
APPALACHIAN STATE 6-0 (257-130) #21/#22/ Sagarin: #30
Sat 10/26 at South Alabama 1-6 (114-213) Sagarin: #174
Thu 10/31 Georgia Southern 3-3 (135-189) Sagarin: #113
Sat 11/9 at South Carolina 3-4 (200-177) Sagarin: #34
Sat 11/16 at Georgia State 5-2 (241-246) Sagarin: #99
Sat 11/23 (SW) Texas State 2-4 (113-172) Sagarin: #135
Fri 11/29 at Troy 3-3 (210-173) Sagarin: #103
Comments: The Mountaineers only problem would seem to be the trip to South Carolina. But they aren’t scared of that and Sagarin rates them higher than the Gamecocks.
SOUTHERN METHODIST 7-0 (310-191) Ranked: #16/#17 / Sagarin: #37
Thu 10/24 at Houston 3-4 (216-215) Sagarin: #66
Sat 11/2 at MEMPHIS 6-1 (274-143) Ranked: UR/#25 Sagarin: #28
Sat 11/9 East Carolina 3-4 (152-181) Sagarin: #126
BYE
Sat 11/23 at Navy 5-1 (310-191) Sagarin: #38
Sat 11/30 Tulane 5-2 (252-162) Sagarin: #51
Comments: it’s nice to see the Mustangs playing well after all they’ve been through over the years. But three of their remaining opponents have a total of four losses and they play two of them on the road. (Note: they beat Houston 34-31 last night.)
Potential Ty-D-Bol Teams
AKRON 0-7 (86-237) Sagarin: #194
Sat 10/26 at Northern Illinois 2-5 (150-203) Sagarin: #108
Sat 11/2 at Bowling Green 2-5 (113-249) Sagarin: #159
Tue 11/12 Eastern Michigan 4-3 (188-219) Sagarin: #109
Wed 11/20 at Miami University 3-4 (157-248) Sagarin: #106
Tue 11/26 Ohio University 3-4 (209-215) Sagarin: #93
Comments: They have 5 games left and 4 of those teams have losing records so there will be plenty of opportunities for Akron to get off the snide. Still, the Ty-D-Bol was made for a team named the “Zips”.
NEW MEXICO STATE 0-7 (137-298) Sagarin: #162
Sat 10/26 at Georgia Southern 3-3 (135-189) Sagarin: #113
BYE
Sat 11/9 at Mississippi 3-5 (207-216) Sagarin: #57
Sat 11/16 Incarnate Word 5-2 (207-222) FCS Sagarin: #179
Sat 11/23 Texas-El Paso 1-5 (106-198) Sagarin: #187
Sat 11/30 at Liberty 5-2 (207-170) Sagarin: #117
Comments: the Aggies have made the “Little Dance” four times so they are old hands at this. Their schedule does not look too intimidating, (two teams are ranked even lower than they are), but do not under-estimate this school’s ability to lose football games.
RICE 0-7 (121-213) Sagarin: #143
Sat 10/26 Southern Mississippi 4-3 (213-224) Sagarin: #90
Sat 11/2 Marshall 4-3 (190-186) Sagarin: #95
BYE
Sat 11/16 at Middle Tennessee State 2-5 (154-229) Sagarin: #118
Sat 11/23 North Texas State 3-4 (225-227) Sagarin: #105
Sat 11/30 at Texas-El Paso 1-5 (106-198) Sagarin: #187
Comments: The Rice Owls have splashed around the Ty-D-Bol three times and this could be #4. They aren’t going to play anybody scary but they don’t need to to lose. Amazingly, UTEP is ranked behind both New Mexico State and Rice, so they both have a chance to get off the schneid against the Miners. If they both do, then we are into the one win tams, so the Aggies and the owls still wouldn’t be out of the woods.
