SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 32,526
- Like
- 62,727
Every October I start charting the future games and possible fates of three groups of teams:
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bowl Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Each entry is the team name, with won lost record, their points for and against, their highest ranking among the writers, coaches and the playoff committee, (which means more than one team could have the same ranking – from different sources), then their ‘ART’, the points they got playing ranked teams and then their ‘RVU’, as a ranked team against an unranked team from my weekly “Against Ranked Teams” post. Games against teams on any of these three lists are in capitals. If a team is unranked or has not played a ranked team or played as one against an unranked team, those fields are not shown.
Here are the current lists:
The Playoff
GEORGIA 7-0 (269-46) ranked #1 ART: +149 RVU: +66
10/30 Florida 4-3 (241-148) ART: +23 RVU: +26
11/6 Missouri 3-4 (241-260) ART -16
11/13 at Tennessee 4-4 (299-212) ART: -7
11/20 Charleston Southern (FCS) 2-4 (161-174)
11/27 at Georgia Tech 4-3 (211-202) ART: +42
Comments: It’s hard to see how the Bulldogs will lose the SEC title game, where Alabama looms. But this could be Georgia’s year. Their only title was in 1980, 41 years ago.
MICHIGAN 7-0 (264-100) ranked #6 RVU: +53
10/30 at MICHIGAN STATE 7-0 (240-131) ranked #7 ART: +24 RVU: -3
11/6 Indiana 2-5 (141-215) ART: -47
11/13 at Penn State 5-2 (188-103) ranked #17 ART: +54 RVU: -4
11/20 at Maryland 4-3 (196-208) ART: -46
11/27 Ohio State 6-1 (345-130) ranked #5 ART: +73 RVU: +46
Comments: They have yet to play a ranked team, although they’ve done well against the teams that weren’t. If they can beat the Spartans the Nittany Lions and the Buckeyes, they are a match for anyone. But until they do it, I’ll still wonder about them.
MICHIGAN STATE 7-0 (240-131) ranked #7 ART: +24 RVU: -3
10/30 MICHIGAN 7-0 (264-100) ranked #6 RVU: +53
11/6 at Purdue 4-3 (155-114) ART: +41 RVU: -18
11/13 Maryland 4-3 (196-208) ART: -46
11/20 at Ohio State 6-1 (345-130) ranked #5 ART: +73 RVU: +46
11/27 Penn State 5-2 (188-103) ranked #17 ART: +54 RVU: -4
Comments: The Spartans have played a better schedule than the Wolverines but they’ve got the same problem. Not only do they play each other but they close against Penn State and Ohio State That’s three teams with a combined record of 18-3. Then comes the Big Ten title game. Both Michigan teams have a lot of work to do before they can think about the playoff.
OKLAHOMA 8-0 (334-197) ranked #4 ART: +12 RVU: -26
10/30 Texas Tech 5-3 (274-245)
11/13 at Baylor 6-1 (268-131) ranked #16 ART: +32
11/20 Iowa State 5-2 (226-119) ranked #22 ART: +27 RVU: -5
11/27 OKLAHOMA STATE 6-1 (180-141) ranked #15 ART: +36
Comments: The Sooners have been in low gear but finding ways to win, (their record includes a 76-0 win over Western Carolina). Going to Baylor could be a stumbling block and Oklahoma State can still be dangerous. The top two teams in the conference meet for the championship, so ‘bedlam’ may be a double-header this year.
WAKE FOREST 7-0 (302-184) ranked #13 RVU: +1
10/30 Duke 3-4 (189-221)
11/6 at North Carolina 4-3 (258-202) RVU: +4
11/13 North Carolina State 5-2 (224-117) ranked #25 ART: +23 RVU: +17
11/20 at Clemson 4-3 (140-102) ART: +7 RVU: -6
11/27 at Boston College 4-3 (199-145) ART: -27
Comments: The Deacs, if they keep winning, might be favored in all these games. But they have yet to play a ranked team and have been outscoring the unranked teams. I suspect they’ll come up short in 1-2 of them.
The Pesci Bowl
CINCINNATI 7-0 (288-102) ranked #2 ART: +28 RVU: +51
10/30 at Tulane 1-6 (223-296) ART: -36
11/6 Tulsa 3-4 (178-227) ART: -4
11/12 at South Florida 2-5 (167-226) ART: -6
11/20 SOUTHERN METHODIST 7-0 (299-159) ranked #16 RVU: +29
11/26 East Carolina 3-4 (201-199)
Comments: The Bearcat express is still on schedule but it’s slowing down a bit. They aren’t blowing away teams as they were earlier. But still, they are #2 in both polls and it somebody knocks off Georgia, they will actually be #1. But SMU looms and that could be a double-header as the ACC is now a one-division team like the Big 12, (and they will be a part of the Big 12 in the near future), so the championship game will be between the top 2 teams. And Houston is 6-1, so they may have something to say about what happens here. If Cincinnati wins out, it will be hard to keep them out of the playoff with such a high ranking, (although the committee makes it own ranking – and that will be very interesting). If they are in it, they can’t be in my fictional Pesci Bowl.
SAN DIEGO STATE 7-0 (217-110) ranked #20 RVU: +29
10/30 Fresno State 6-2 (285-167) ART: +13 RVU: +4
11/6 at Hawaii 4-4 (232-254) ART: +11
11/13 Nevada-Reno 5-2 (250-175)
11/19 at NEVADA-LAS VEGAS 0-7 (137-237) ART: -61
11/26 Boise State 3-4 (206-155) ART: +25
Comments: Nobody’s talking about the Aztecs, but they could be sneaking up on people. They have to get by Fresno and Reno and either the Falcons or Utah State in the Mountain West title game, but they could do that.
SOUTHERN METHODIST 7-0 (299-159) ranked #16 RVU: +5
10/30 at Houston 6-1 (254-121)
11/6 at Memphis 4-4 (258-237)
11/13 Central Florida 4-3 (229-200) ART: -11
11/20 at CINCINNATI 7-0 (288-102) ranked #2 ART: +28 RVU: +51
11/27 Tulsa 3-4 (178-227) ART: -4
Comments: it’s nice to see the Mustangs having a good team again after all these years in the woods. But the trips to Houston and Cincinnati will likely drop them from this list, although a one loss team might still make the Pesci Bowl if there’s only one undefeated Group of Five team. What I want to know is: If Cincinnati is ranked #2, why is SMU way down at #16 and 6-1 Houston unranked?
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 8-0 (315-150) ranked #22 RVU: +27
10/23 at Louisiana Tech 2-5 (186-231) ART: -31
11/6 at Texas-El Paso 6-1 (174-135)
11/13 Southern Mississippi 1-6 (99-199) ART: -24
11/20 Alabama-Birmingham 5-3 (207-163) ART: -25
11/27 at North Texas State 1-6 (161-245)
Comments: Nobody knows about this team and that’s not likely to change. But if UTEP is the biggest threat to your going undefeated, you’re in pretty good shape.
The Ty-D Bowl
ARIZONA 0-7 (100-213) ART: +1
10/22 Washington 3-4 (162-138) RVU: -12
10/30 at Southern California 3-4 (209-195) ART: -2 RVU: -14
11/6 California 2-5 (164-165) ART: +10
11/13 Utah 4-3 (223-178) ART: +22 RVU: +7
11/19 at Washington State 4-4 (199-201)
11/27 at Arizona State 5-2 (221-132) ART: +18 RVU: +16
Comments: You’ve got to be able to score and this team can’t. But I’ll bet they will find someone they can beat before they face their traditional rivals, the Sun Devils.
NEVADA-LAS VEGAS 0-7 (137-237) ART: -61
10/21 San Jose State 4-4 (163-182) ART -16
10/29 at Nevada-Reno 5-2 (250-175)
11/6 at New Mexico 3-5 (112-204) ART: -38
11/13 Hawaii 4-4 (232-254) ART: +11
11/19 at SAN DIEGO STATE 7-0 (217-110) ranked #21 RVU: +29
11/26 Air Force 6-2 (234-134) ART -2
Comments: If the Rebels can’t beat the Lobos, they are probably looking at 0-12.
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bowl Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Each entry is the team name, with won lost record, their points for and against, their highest ranking among the writers, coaches and the playoff committee, (which means more than one team could have the same ranking – from different sources), then their ‘ART’, the points they got playing ranked teams and then their ‘RVU’, as a ranked team against an unranked team from my weekly “Against Ranked Teams” post. Games against teams on any of these three lists are in capitals. If a team is unranked or has not played a ranked team or played as one against an unranked team, those fields are not shown.
Here are the current lists:
The Playoff
GEORGIA 7-0 (269-46) ranked #1 ART: +149 RVU: +66
10/30 Florida 4-3 (241-148) ART: +23 RVU: +26
11/6 Missouri 3-4 (241-260) ART -16
11/13 at Tennessee 4-4 (299-212) ART: -7
11/20 Charleston Southern (FCS) 2-4 (161-174)
11/27 at Georgia Tech 4-3 (211-202) ART: +42
Comments: It’s hard to see how the Bulldogs will lose the SEC title game, where Alabama looms. But this could be Georgia’s year. Their only title was in 1980, 41 years ago.
MICHIGAN 7-0 (264-100) ranked #6 RVU: +53
10/30 at MICHIGAN STATE 7-0 (240-131) ranked #7 ART: +24 RVU: -3
11/6 Indiana 2-5 (141-215) ART: -47
11/13 at Penn State 5-2 (188-103) ranked #17 ART: +54 RVU: -4
11/20 at Maryland 4-3 (196-208) ART: -46
11/27 Ohio State 6-1 (345-130) ranked #5 ART: +73 RVU: +46
Comments: They have yet to play a ranked team, although they’ve done well against the teams that weren’t. If they can beat the Spartans the Nittany Lions and the Buckeyes, they are a match for anyone. But until they do it, I’ll still wonder about them.
MICHIGAN STATE 7-0 (240-131) ranked #7 ART: +24 RVU: -3
10/30 MICHIGAN 7-0 (264-100) ranked #6 RVU: +53
11/6 at Purdue 4-3 (155-114) ART: +41 RVU: -18
11/13 Maryland 4-3 (196-208) ART: -46
11/20 at Ohio State 6-1 (345-130) ranked #5 ART: +73 RVU: +46
11/27 Penn State 5-2 (188-103) ranked #17 ART: +54 RVU: -4
Comments: The Spartans have played a better schedule than the Wolverines but they’ve got the same problem. Not only do they play each other but they close against Penn State and Ohio State That’s three teams with a combined record of 18-3. Then comes the Big Ten title game. Both Michigan teams have a lot of work to do before they can think about the playoff.
OKLAHOMA 8-0 (334-197) ranked #4 ART: +12 RVU: -26
10/30 Texas Tech 5-3 (274-245)
11/13 at Baylor 6-1 (268-131) ranked #16 ART: +32
11/20 Iowa State 5-2 (226-119) ranked #22 ART: +27 RVU: -5
11/27 OKLAHOMA STATE 6-1 (180-141) ranked #15 ART: +36
Comments: The Sooners have been in low gear but finding ways to win, (their record includes a 76-0 win over Western Carolina). Going to Baylor could be a stumbling block and Oklahoma State can still be dangerous. The top two teams in the conference meet for the championship, so ‘bedlam’ may be a double-header this year.
WAKE FOREST 7-0 (302-184) ranked #13 RVU: +1
10/30 Duke 3-4 (189-221)
11/6 at North Carolina 4-3 (258-202) RVU: +4
11/13 North Carolina State 5-2 (224-117) ranked #25 ART: +23 RVU: +17
11/20 at Clemson 4-3 (140-102) ART: +7 RVU: -6
11/27 at Boston College 4-3 (199-145) ART: -27
Comments: The Deacs, if they keep winning, might be favored in all these games. But they have yet to play a ranked team and have been outscoring the unranked teams. I suspect they’ll come up short in 1-2 of them.
The Pesci Bowl
CINCINNATI 7-0 (288-102) ranked #2 ART: +28 RVU: +51
10/30 at Tulane 1-6 (223-296) ART: -36
11/6 Tulsa 3-4 (178-227) ART: -4
11/12 at South Florida 2-5 (167-226) ART: -6
11/20 SOUTHERN METHODIST 7-0 (299-159) ranked #16 RVU: +29
11/26 East Carolina 3-4 (201-199)
Comments: The Bearcat express is still on schedule but it’s slowing down a bit. They aren’t blowing away teams as they were earlier. But still, they are #2 in both polls and it somebody knocks off Georgia, they will actually be #1. But SMU looms and that could be a double-header as the ACC is now a one-division team like the Big 12, (and they will be a part of the Big 12 in the near future), so the championship game will be between the top 2 teams. And Houston is 6-1, so they may have something to say about what happens here. If Cincinnati wins out, it will be hard to keep them out of the playoff with such a high ranking, (although the committee makes it own ranking – and that will be very interesting). If they are in it, they can’t be in my fictional Pesci Bowl.
SAN DIEGO STATE 7-0 (217-110) ranked #20 RVU: +29
10/30 Fresno State 6-2 (285-167) ART: +13 RVU: +4
11/6 at Hawaii 4-4 (232-254) ART: +11
11/13 Nevada-Reno 5-2 (250-175)
11/19 at NEVADA-LAS VEGAS 0-7 (137-237) ART: -61
11/26 Boise State 3-4 (206-155) ART: +25
Comments: Nobody’s talking about the Aztecs, but they could be sneaking up on people. They have to get by Fresno and Reno and either the Falcons or Utah State in the Mountain West title game, but they could do that.
SOUTHERN METHODIST 7-0 (299-159) ranked #16 RVU: +5
10/30 at Houston 6-1 (254-121)
11/6 at Memphis 4-4 (258-237)
11/13 Central Florida 4-3 (229-200) ART: -11
11/20 at CINCINNATI 7-0 (288-102) ranked #2 ART: +28 RVU: +51
11/27 Tulsa 3-4 (178-227) ART: -4
Comments: it’s nice to see the Mustangs having a good team again after all these years in the woods. But the trips to Houston and Cincinnati will likely drop them from this list, although a one loss team might still make the Pesci Bowl if there’s only one undefeated Group of Five team. What I want to know is: If Cincinnati is ranked #2, why is SMU way down at #16 and 6-1 Houston unranked?
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 8-0 (315-150) ranked #22 RVU: +27
10/23 at Louisiana Tech 2-5 (186-231) ART: -31
11/6 at Texas-El Paso 6-1 (174-135)
11/13 Southern Mississippi 1-6 (99-199) ART: -24
11/20 Alabama-Birmingham 5-3 (207-163) ART: -25
11/27 at North Texas State 1-6 (161-245)
Comments: Nobody knows about this team and that’s not likely to change. But if UTEP is the biggest threat to your going undefeated, you’re in pretty good shape.
The Ty-D Bowl
ARIZONA 0-7 (100-213) ART: +1
10/22 Washington 3-4 (162-138) RVU: -12
10/30 at Southern California 3-4 (209-195) ART: -2 RVU: -14
11/6 California 2-5 (164-165) ART: +10
11/13 Utah 4-3 (223-178) ART: +22 RVU: +7
11/19 at Washington State 4-4 (199-201)
11/27 at Arizona State 5-2 (221-132) ART: +18 RVU: +16
Comments: You’ve got to be able to score and this team can’t. But I’ll bet they will find someone they can beat before they face their traditional rivals, the Sun Devils.
NEVADA-LAS VEGAS 0-7 (137-237) ART: -61
10/21 San Jose State 4-4 (163-182) ART -16
10/29 at Nevada-Reno 5-2 (250-175)
11/6 at New Mexico 3-5 (112-204) ART: -38
11/13 Hawaii 4-4 (232-254) ART: +11
11/19 at SAN DIEGO STATE 7-0 (217-110) ranked #21 RVU: +29
11/26 Air Force 6-2 (234-134) ART -2
Comments: If the Rebels can’t beat the Lobos, they are probably looking at 0-12.