SWC75
Bored Historian
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It’s time I got going with my annual fall series on undefeated teams in contention for the very real four team playoff for the national championship and the fictional Pesci Bowl and Ty-Dee Bowl. The latter two are my inventions. The national championship playoff will likely again be between Power Five level teams, (Notre Dame included). The Pesci Bowl is named after the vertically challenged but feisty actor Joe Pesci and is a single game between the two best non-Power Five conference teams. The Ty-dee bowl, named after a toilet cleaning product, is a battle between the two worst FBS teams in the country.
I’ll start with the undefeated, (and for the Ty-dee Bowl, winless) teams and when there are no longer enough of them to fill out the above fields, I’ll include the one loss, (or one win), teams.
National Playoff Contenders
ALABAMA 8-0 (433-127) #1 in both the writer’s and coaches’ poll (1/1) against ranked teams (ART): +26 points
Sat 11/3 at Louisiana State 7-1 (243-121) ranked 4/4 ART: +114
Sat 11/10 Mississippi State 5-3 (217-108) ART: +62
Sat 11/17 The Citadel (FCS) 2-5 (188-218) ART: none (as opposed to having played ranked teams with a net of 0 points)
Sat 11/24 Auburn 5-3 (227-132) ART: +38
Comments: Alabama may seem invincible but they’ve been ‘vinced’ in every season of this decade. The last time they ran the table to the national title was Saban’s first there in 2009. They’ve twice won all their regular season games but lost in the SEC title game on the “kick six” to Auburn in 2013 and lost to Clemson in the 2016 title game. The best chance for them to get vinced in this regular season would seem to be at LSU on 11/3. It will never happen but my daydream is that they invite the Alabama of FCS, North Dakota State, to play them for their FCS game. That would be fun to watch. Instead we get the The Citadel. Meh! But ‘meh’ is exactly what Nick was looking for.
CLEMSON 8-0 (353-104) 2/2 ART: +44
Sat 11/3 Louisville 2-6 (178-290) ART: -12
Sat 11/10 at Boston College 6-2 (304-196) ranked 24/25 ART: -2
Sat 11/17 Duke 5-3 (251-186) ART: none
Sat 11/24 South Carolina 4-3 (200-179) ART: -5
Comments: That trip to BC could be a problem. Duke is pretty good. Miami, Pittsburgh, (believe it or not), Virginia or Virginia Tech await in the ACC title game. There’s a lot of opportunities to slip up there, which doesn’t mean the Tigers will.
NOTRE DAME 8-0 (272-153) ranked 3/3 ART: +83
Sat 11/3 at Northwestern 5-3 (201-189) ART: +45
Sat 11/10 Florida State 4-4 (186-227) ART: -32
Sat 11/17 in NYC Syracuse 6-2 (349-229) ranked 22/24 ART: +33
Sat 11/24 at Southern California 4-4 (217-230) ART: +20
Comments: Now that they have the right quarterback, the Irish will be tough to beat. SU will try in Yankee Stadium and the Trojans will have a shot at them on the west coast. There will be no conference title game and if the committee has a chance to get Notre Dame into the playoff with any credibility, they will be there. We might actually be their best remaining opponent. That game in Yankee Stadium will get national attention of both teams get the job done. Will Sports Center be there?
We have fewer than four undefeated power conference teams so it’s time to look at the one-loss teams:
MICHIGAN 7-1 (288-115) ranked 5/5 ART: +59
Sat 11/3 Penn State 6-2 (328-178) ranked 14/13 ART: +35
Sat 11/10 at Rutgers 1-7 (121-270) ART: -27
Sat 11/17 Indiana 4-5 (242-268) ART: -9
Sat 11/24 at Ohio State 7-1 (344-183) ranked 8/8 ART: +41
Comments: Jim Harbaugh finally won a big one. (He won some with Stanford and the Niners.) They still have to get by Penn State and that trip to Ohio State will be daunting. If they win those there will be the Big Ten title game. But, yeah, they could be in the playoff.
GEORGIA 7-1 (309-131) ranked 6/5 ART: +55
Sat 11/3 at Kentucky 7-1 (205-104) ranked 11/12 ART: +45
Sat 11/10 Auburn 5-3 (5-3 (227-132) ART: +38
Sat 11/17 Massachusetts 3-6 (289-355) ART: none
Sat 11/24 Georgia Tech 4-4 (311-226) ART: -5
Comments: The next two games should be challenging and Tech is a traditional rival. But they are a good bet now to get back to the SEC title game and another battle with Alabama.
OKLAHOMA 7-1 (391-205) ranked 7/7 ART: +4
Sat 11/3 at Texas Tech 5-3 (338-225) ART: +41
Sat 11/10 Oklahoma State 5-3 (314-234) ART: +55
Sat 11/17 Kansas 3-5 (209-233) ART: +1
Fri 11/23 at West Virginia 6-1 (279-137) ranked 12/10 ART: +9
Comments: Road games against Texas Tech and West Virginia are dangerous but the Sooners will be favored to make the Big 12 title game and probably favored to win it. If they do that, they will probably be in the playoff.
OHIO STATE 7-1 (344-183) ranked 8/8 ART: +41
Sat 11/3 Nebraska 2-6 (238-267) ART: -46
Sat 11/10 at Michigan State 5-3 (187-168) ART: +28
Sat 11/17 at Maryland 5-3 (253-196) ART: -18
Sat 11/24 Michigan 7-1 (288-115) ranked 5/5 ART: +59
Comments: The Buckeyes won’t have Joey Bosa but they do have road games at 5-3 Michigan State and Maryland and a home game against Michigan. Their loss to Purdue was reminiscent of the disaster at Iowa last year, (24-55), which cost them a spot in the playoff. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy….
KENTUCKY 6-1 (190-90) ranked 11/12 ART: +45
Sat 11/3 Georgia 7-1 (309-131) ranked 6/5 ART: +55
Sat 11/10 at Tennessee 3-5 (205-237) ART: -20
Sat 11/17 Middle Tennessee State 5-3 (227-223) ART: -19
Sat 11/24 at Louisville 2-6 (178-290) ART: -12
Comment: if they can beat Georgia at home. Kentucky will likely be in the SEC title game- in football!
WEST VIRGINIA 6-1 (279-137) ranked 12/10 ART: +9
Sat 11/3 at Texas 6-2 (250-199) ranked 15/15 ART: +73
Sat 11/10 Texas Christian 3-5 (225-200) ART: +2
Sat 11/17 at Oklahoma State 5-3 (314-234) ART: +55
Fri 11/13 Oklahoma 7-1 (391-205) ranked 7/7 ART: +4
Comment: I’ve never quite bought the Mountaineers as title contenders, (or Will Grier as a Heisman candidate). Iowa State exposed them. That’s a pretty tough schedule down the stretch. I think they will get exposed again. Apparently their cancelled game with NC State won’t re-scheduled. Too bad, if you’ve grown a taste for shoot-outs.
WASHINGTON STATE 7-1 (326-201) ranked 11/11 ART: +33
Sat 11/3 California 5-3 (199-178) ART: 0
Sat 11/10 at Colorado 5-3 (256-191) ART: -3
Sat 11/17 Arizona 4-5 (266-247) ART: +36
Fri 11/23 Washington 6-3 (239-137) ranked 15/13 ART: +52
Comments: State looked like a Rose Bowl team against Oregon and now they’ve beaten Stanford as well. Colorado and the Apple Bowl will tell us more. It’s not the Pac 12’s year to get into the playoff, (which will hopefully move us toward an 8 team playoff with automatic bids).
Pesci Bowl Contenders
CENTRAL FLORIDA 7-0 (311-127) ranked 9/9 ART: none
Thu 11/1 Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Sat 11/10 Navy 2-6 (226-284) ART: +1
Sat 11/17 Cincinnati 7-1 (273-126) ART: none
Fri 11/23 South Florida 7-1 (285-237) ART: none
Comments: Central Florida vs. South Florida should again be a great game in a developing rivalry. The winner might get into an 8 team playoff but not a 4 team playoff. Neither has played a ranked team. The winner will still have a conference title game to get through and Temple and Cincinnati could cause trouble.
SOUTH FLORIDA 7-1 (285-237) ranked 21/20 ART: none
Sat 11/3 Tulane 3-5 (197-225) ART: -21
Sat 11/10 at Cincinnati 7-1 (273-126) ART: none
Sat 11/17 at Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Fri 11/23 Central Florida 7-0 (311-127) ranked 9/9 ART: none
Comments: Houston beat the Bulls and Cincinnati and Temple could spoil the party even more, as the Owls did to the Bearcats.
The one-loss teams not in the “power” conferences:
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM 7-1 (253-106) ART: none
Sat 11/3 Texas-San Antonio 3-5 (139-230) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Southern Mississippi 3-4 (179-141) ART: +3
Sat 11/17 at Texas A&M 5-3 (239-172) ranked 16/17 ART: +44
Sat 11/24 at Middle Tennessee State 5-3 (227-223) ART: -19
Comments: UAB controversially gave up their football program after the 2014 season. They brought it back last year and immediately went 8-5. I guess they figured that if you are going to play, you need to win. That should not be a problem the next two weeks but then it gets harder.
BUFFALO 7-1 (263-169) ART: none
Tue 10/30 Miami University 3-5 (210-199) ART: none
Tue 11/6 Kent State 1-7 (184-280) ART: -38
Wed 11/14 at Ohio University 5-3 (306-231) ART: none
Fri 11/23 at Bowling Green 1-7 (205-382) ART: -32
Comments: Buffalo had no team from 1971-1998 and from 1999-2017 went 65-160 (.289). All of a sudden they will be favored to wind up 11-1 and be favored in the MAC title game.
CINCINNATI 7-1 (273-126) ART: none
Sat 11/3 Navy 2-6 (226-284) ART: +1
Sat 11/10 South Florida 7-1 (285-237) ART: none
Sat 11/17 at Central Florida 7-0 (311-127) ranked 9/9 ART: none
Fri 11/23 East Carolina 2-5 (150-230) ART: -11
Comments: Cincy has their best team since the Brian Kelly-Butch Jones Era, but maybe not quite that good. Temple smashed their goose-egg. I don’t think they are quite as good as either of the Florida teams or Houston.
FRESNO STATE 7-1 (316-108) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at UNLV 2-6 (253-311) ART: -11
Fri 11/9 at Boise State 6-2 (321-197) ART: -11
Sat 11/17 San Diego State 6-2 (169-157) ART: +2
Sat 11/24 San Jose State 1-7 (197-301) ART: -7
Comments: Fresno has traditionally been one of the better mid-majors in football, (9 Pesci Bowl appearances), which is why it was shocking to see them going 1-11 in 2016 and making their first ever Ty-Dee Bowl appearance. They hired Jeff Tedford, the former California coach who played quarterback for the Bulldogs in the early 80’s. Tedford has totally turned the program around, going 10-4 his first year, a stunning 9 game improvement. This year their record could be better. They lost by a touchdown to a Big Ten team, Minnesota 14-21 after leading late in the fourth quarter. They’ve steamrolled their other seven opponents 302-87, (43-12 per game).
GEORGIA SOUTHERN 7-1 (251-149) ART: -7
Sat 11/3 at Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 (192-284) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Troy 6-2 (274-189) ART: -32
Sat 11/17 at Coastal Carolina 5-3 (252-259) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Georgia State 2-6 (203-293) ART: none
Comments: The Eagles, famous for their triple-option attack that got them six national championships in FCS, are starting to make some noise in FBS. App State, who they just beat, had only three FCS titles. Nobody left on their schedule looks as formidable, although Troy, which has three titles of its own, can be pretty feisty, as LSU found out last year.
HOUSTON 7-1 (398-240) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at Southern Methodist 3-5 (216-287) ART: -45
Sat 11/10 Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Thu 11/15 Tulane 3-5 (197-225) ART: -21
Fri 11/23 at Memphis 4-4 (340-243) ART: +15
Comment: The Cougars, once a power conference team, (SEC), have become one of the most consistently successful mid-majors. They beat USF and should now run the table after that. They are one of the country’s highest scoring teams, averaging 50 points a game. They will surely be the opponent of one of the Florida schools in the AAC title game.
UTAH STATE 7-1 (395-178) ART: +8
Sat 11/3 at Hawaii 6-4 (334-346) ART: none
Sat 11/10 San Jose State 1-7 (197-301) ART: -7
Sat 11/17 at Colorado State 3-6 (221-336) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Boise State 6-2 (321-197) ART: -11
Comments: The Aggies were a top mid-major in the 60’s and 70’s, (a combined 132-75-4). Then they declined sharply, (from 1980-2010 they were 125-222-2). In this decade they had a revival under coaches Gary Anderson and Matt Wells, going 37-17 from 2011-14. They’ve fallen back again since then (15-23 from 2015-17) but are having a strong year this year due to a very productive offense that’s averaging 49 points per game. Their only loss was 31-38 at Michigan State in which the Spartans, down 30-31, scored with 2 minutes left to win it. That trip to Boise looms but it would be no surprise to see Fresno State vs. Utah State for the MWC title – and a possible spot in the Pesci Bowl.
Ty-Dee Bowl Contenders
TEXAS-EL PASO 0-8 (123-240) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at Rice 1-8 (170-351) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Middle Tennessee State 5-3 (227-223) ART: -19
Sat 11/17 at Western Kentucky 1-7 (158-240) ART: -9
Sat 11/24 Southern Mississippi 3-4 (179-141) ART: +3
Comments: UTEP is so bad they lost to New Mexico State. Both used to be good and exciting teams back in the 60’s but since 1970, they have been the two worst programs in the country, (save for Buffalo, who didn’t even have a team most of that time): I-A Winning Percentage 1970-2017
They are looking forward to Rice and Western Kentucky, who are looking forward to them, too. The Miners were 0-12 last year and it could happen again.
We are now down to one winless team so I will include the one loss teams, as well.
BOWLING GREEN 1-7 (205-382) ART: -32
Tue 10/30 Kent State 1-7 (184-280) ART: -38
Sat 11/10 at Central Michigan 1-8 (147-236) ART: -6
Sat 11/17 at Akron 4-3 (157-165) ART: none
Sat 11/23 Buffalo 7-1 (263-169) ART: none
Comments: The Falcons have been hooded since Dino left. They’ve got a great chance to see some daylight these next two weeks. But if they can’t beat the Flashes or the Chippy Wahs, how are they going to handle Akron or Buffalo.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 1-8 (147-236) ART: -6
Sat 11/3 at Eastern Michigan 4-5 (258-230) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Bowling Green 1-7 (205-382) ART: -32
Friday 11/23 at Toledo 4-4 (326-264) ART: -20
Comments: If they can’t beat BG, they’ll probably finish 1-11. Again, couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys, (and yes, they’ve got the same coach).
CONNECTICUT 1-7 (169-382) ART: -86
Sat 11/3 at Tulsa 1-7 (163-228) ART: +2
Sat 11/10 Southern Methodist 3-5 (216-287) ART: -45
Sat 11/17 at East Carolina 2-5 (150-230) ART: -11
Sat 11/24 Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Comment: Another team and coach I’m not sad to see down here. I think Tulsa is better than they are and SMU, ECU and Temple certainly are. The Huskies are giving up 48 points a game, tied with Bowling Green for the worst in the country and have the worst record against ranked teams as well. UCONN just lost to UMASS and the Minutemen looked like the better team.
KENT STATE 1-7 (184-280) ART: -38
Tue 10/30 at Bowling Green 1-7 (205-382) ART: -32
Tue 11/6 at Buffalo 7-1 (263-169) ART: none
Thu 11/15 Toledo 4-4 (326-264) ART: -20
Fri 11/23 Eastern Michigan 4-5 (258-230) ART: none
Comment: The Golden Flashes have looked more like brass door knobs for much of their history. Their all-time winning percentage is the worst of all current FBS schools: I-A Winning Percentage 1869-2017 We lost to them in 1974. Since then they’ve had 17 teams that won 2 or fewer games, including last year – and probably this year, as well.
NORTH CAROLINA 1-6 (161-240) ART: -27
Sat 11/3 Georgia Tech 4-4 (311-226) ART: -5
Sat 11/10 at Duke 5-3 (251-186) ART: none
Sat 11/17 Western Carolina (FCS) 3-5 (274-326) ART: none
Sat 11/24 North Carolina State 5-2 (213-176) ART: -11
Comments: The tar heels clearly don’t belong here but they are here. Western Carolina will surely get them to 2 wins and I wouldn’t be surprised if they bump off one or two more teams and come back strong next year. They’ve got too much talent for the Ty-Dee Bowl.
RICE 1-8 (170-351) ART: none
Sat 11/3 Texas-El Paso 0-8 (123-240) ART: none
Sat 11/10 at Louisiana Tech 6-2 (224-176) ART: +3
Sat 11/17 at Louisiana State 7-1 (243-121) ranked: 4/4 ART: +114
Sat 11/24 Old Dominion 2-7 (240-359) ART: +27
Comments: Rice was once a very respectable program. Under Jess Neely from 1940-66, they went 144-124-10, went to six major bowl games and won half of them. Since then? 199-372-6. They used to be a respected member of a major conference. Now they are a doormat in a bottom 5 conference. But UTEP could keep them from their third Ty-Dee Bowl appearance.
RUTGERS 1-7 (121-270) ART: -27
Sat 11/3 at Wisconsin 5-3 (248-171) ART: -11
Sat 11/10 Michigan 7-1 (288-115) ranked 5/5 ART: +59
Sat 11/17 Penn State 6-2 (328-178) ranked 14/13 ART: +35
Sat 11/24 at Michigan State 5-3 (187-168) ART: +28
Comment: And what SU fan’s heart doesn’t warm up when he looks at the rest of Rutgers’ schedule? Professor Dowling likes it, too: Why Can't Rutgers Ever Win?
SAN JOSE STATE 1-7 (197-301) ART: -7
Sat 11/3 at Wyoming 3-6 (158-225) ART: none
Sat 11/10 at Utah State 7-1 (395-178) ranked 18/20 ART: +8
Sat 11/17 Nevada-Reno 5-4 (289-281) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Fresno State 7-1 (316-108) ranked 20/23 ART: none
Comments: The Spartans beat UNLV to get off the snide. Wyoming appears to be their best shot at avoid the Ty-Dee Bowl. Utah State and Fresno State are their best shots at being blown out.
TULSA 1-7 (163-228) ART: +2
Sat 11/3 Connecticut 1-7 (169-382) ART: -86
Sat 11/10 at Memphis 4-4 (340-243) ART: +15
Sat 11/17 at Navy 2-6 (226-264) ART: +1
Sat 11/24 Southern Methodist 3-5 (216-287) ART: -45
Comments: The Golden Hurricane, (shouldn’t they be the Golden Tornado?) have quite a football history: Tulsa Golden Hurricane football - Wikipedia but not much of a present after two wins last year and one so far this year. I think they will beat UCONN and avoid the Ty-dee Bowl but after that who knows – or - cares?
WESTERN KENTUCKY 1-7 (158-240) ART: -9
Fri 11/2 at Middle Tennessee State 5-3 (227-223) ART: -19
Sat 11/10 at Florida International 6-2 (289-177) ART: -9
Sat 11/17 Texas-El Paso 0-8 (123-240) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Louisiana Tech 6-2 (224-176) ART: +3
Summary: If the hill-bottomers can’t beat UTEP, they’ve got problems.
I’ll start with the undefeated, (and for the Ty-dee Bowl, winless) teams and when there are no longer enough of them to fill out the above fields, I’ll include the one loss, (or one win), teams.
National Playoff Contenders
ALABAMA 8-0 (433-127) #1 in both the writer’s and coaches’ poll (1/1) against ranked teams (ART): +26 points
Sat 11/3 at Louisiana State 7-1 (243-121) ranked 4/4 ART: +114
Sat 11/10 Mississippi State 5-3 (217-108) ART: +62
Sat 11/17 The Citadel (FCS) 2-5 (188-218) ART: none (as opposed to having played ranked teams with a net of 0 points)
Sat 11/24 Auburn 5-3 (227-132) ART: +38
Comments: Alabama may seem invincible but they’ve been ‘vinced’ in every season of this decade. The last time they ran the table to the national title was Saban’s first there in 2009. They’ve twice won all their regular season games but lost in the SEC title game on the “kick six” to Auburn in 2013 and lost to Clemson in the 2016 title game. The best chance for them to get vinced in this regular season would seem to be at LSU on 11/3. It will never happen but my daydream is that they invite the Alabama of FCS, North Dakota State, to play them for their FCS game. That would be fun to watch. Instead we get the The Citadel. Meh! But ‘meh’ is exactly what Nick was looking for.
CLEMSON 8-0 (353-104) 2/2 ART: +44
Sat 11/3 Louisville 2-6 (178-290) ART: -12
Sat 11/10 at Boston College 6-2 (304-196) ranked 24/25 ART: -2
Sat 11/17 Duke 5-3 (251-186) ART: none
Sat 11/24 South Carolina 4-3 (200-179) ART: -5
Comments: That trip to BC could be a problem. Duke is pretty good. Miami, Pittsburgh, (believe it or not), Virginia or Virginia Tech await in the ACC title game. There’s a lot of opportunities to slip up there, which doesn’t mean the Tigers will.
NOTRE DAME 8-0 (272-153) ranked 3/3 ART: +83
Sat 11/3 at Northwestern 5-3 (201-189) ART: +45
Sat 11/10 Florida State 4-4 (186-227) ART: -32
Sat 11/17 in NYC Syracuse 6-2 (349-229) ranked 22/24 ART: +33
Sat 11/24 at Southern California 4-4 (217-230) ART: +20
Comments: Now that they have the right quarterback, the Irish will be tough to beat. SU will try in Yankee Stadium and the Trojans will have a shot at them on the west coast. There will be no conference title game and if the committee has a chance to get Notre Dame into the playoff with any credibility, they will be there. We might actually be their best remaining opponent. That game in Yankee Stadium will get national attention of both teams get the job done. Will Sports Center be there?
We have fewer than four undefeated power conference teams so it’s time to look at the one-loss teams:
MICHIGAN 7-1 (288-115) ranked 5/5 ART: +59
Sat 11/3 Penn State 6-2 (328-178) ranked 14/13 ART: +35
Sat 11/10 at Rutgers 1-7 (121-270) ART: -27
Sat 11/17 Indiana 4-5 (242-268) ART: -9
Sat 11/24 at Ohio State 7-1 (344-183) ranked 8/8 ART: +41
Comments: Jim Harbaugh finally won a big one. (He won some with Stanford and the Niners.) They still have to get by Penn State and that trip to Ohio State will be daunting. If they win those there will be the Big Ten title game. But, yeah, they could be in the playoff.
GEORGIA 7-1 (309-131) ranked 6/5 ART: +55
Sat 11/3 at Kentucky 7-1 (205-104) ranked 11/12 ART: +45
Sat 11/10 Auburn 5-3 (5-3 (227-132) ART: +38
Sat 11/17 Massachusetts 3-6 (289-355) ART: none
Sat 11/24 Georgia Tech 4-4 (311-226) ART: -5
Comments: The next two games should be challenging and Tech is a traditional rival. But they are a good bet now to get back to the SEC title game and another battle with Alabama.
OKLAHOMA 7-1 (391-205) ranked 7/7 ART: +4
Sat 11/3 at Texas Tech 5-3 (338-225) ART: +41
Sat 11/10 Oklahoma State 5-3 (314-234) ART: +55
Sat 11/17 Kansas 3-5 (209-233) ART: +1
Fri 11/23 at West Virginia 6-1 (279-137) ranked 12/10 ART: +9
Comments: Road games against Texas Tech and West Virginia are dangerous but the Sooners will be favored to make the Big 12 title game and probably favored to win it. If they do that, they will probably be in the playoff.
OHIO STATE 7-1 (344-183) ranked 8/8 ART: +41
Sat 11/3 Nebraska 2-6 (238-267) ART: -46
Sat 11/10 at Michigan State 5-3 (187-168) ART: +28
Sat 11/17 at Maryland 5-3 (253-196) ART: -18
Sat 11/24 Michigan 7-1 (288-115) ranked 5/5 ART: +59
Comments: The Buckeyes won’t have Joey Bosa but they do have road games at 5-3 Michigan State and Maryland and a home game against Michigan. Their loss to Purdue was reminiscent of the disaster at Iowa last year, (24-55), which cost them a spot in the playoff. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy….
KENTUCKY 6-1 (190-90) ranked 11/12 ART: +45
Sat 11/3 Georgia 7-1 (309-131) ranked 6/5 ART: +55
Sat 11/10 at Tennessee 3-5 (205-237) ART: -20
Sat 11/17 Middle Tennessee State 5-3 (227-223) ART: -19
Sat 11/24 at Louisville 2-6 (178-290) ART: -12
Comment: if they can beat Georgia at home. Kentucky will likely be in the SEC title game- in football!
WEST VIRGINIA 6-1 (279-137) ranked 12/10 ART: +9
Sat 11/3 at Texas 6-2 (250-199) ranked 15/15 ART: +73
Sat 11/10 Texas Christian 3-5 (225-200) ART: +2
Sat 11/17 at Oklahoma State 5-3 (314-234) ART: +55
Fri 11/13 Oklahoma 7-1 (391-205) ranked 7/7 ART: +4
Comment: I’ve never quite bought the Mountaineers as title contenders, (or Will Grier as a Heisman candidate). Iowa State exposed them. That’s a pretty tough schedule down the stretch. I think they will get exposed again. Apparently their cancelled game with NC State won’t re-scheduled. Too bad, if you’ve grown a taste for shoot-outs.
WASHINGTON STATE 7-1 (326-201) ranked 11/11 ART: +33
Sat 11/3 California 5-3 (199-178) ART: 0
Sat 11/10 at Colorado 5-3 (256-191) ART: -3
Sat 11/17 Arizona 4-5 (266-247) ART: +36
Fri 11/23 Washington 6-3 (239-137) ranked 15/13 ART: +52
Comments: State looked like a Rose Bowl team against Oregon and now they’ve beaten Stanford as well. Colorado and the Apple Bowl will tell us more. It’s not the Pac 12’s year to get into the playoff, (which will hopefully move us toward an 8 team playoff with automatic bids).
Pesci Bowl Contenders
CENTRAL FLORIDA 7-0 (311-127) ranked 9/9 ART: none
Thu 11/1 Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Sat 11/10 Navy 2-6 (226-284) ART: +1
Sat 11/17 Cincinnati 7-1 (273-126) ART: none
Fri 11/23 South Florida 7-1 (285-237) ART: none
Comments: Central Florida vs. South Florida should again be a great game in a developing rivalry. The winner might get into an 8 team playoff but not a 4 team playoff. Neither has played a ranked team. The winner will still have a conference title game to get through and Temple and Cincinnati could cause trouble.
SOUTH FLORIDA 7-1 (285-237) ranked 21/20 ART: none
Sat 11/3 Tulane 3-5 (197-225) ART: -21
Sat 11/10 at Cincinnati 7-1 (273-126) ART: none
Sat 11/17 at Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Fri 11/23 Central Florida 7-0 (311-127) ranked 9/9 ART: none
Comments: Houston beat the Bulls and Cincinnati and Temple could spoil the party even more, as the Owls did to the Bearcats.
The one-loss teams not in the “power” conferences:
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM 7-1 (253-106) ART: none
Sat 11/3 Texas-San Antonio 3-5 (139-230) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Southern Mississippi 3-4 (179-141) ART: +3
Sat 11/17 at Texas A&M 5-3 (239-172) ranked 16/17 ART: +44
Sat 11/24 at Middle Tennessee State 5-3 (227-223) ART: -19
Comments: UAB controversially gave up their football program after the 2014 season. They brought it back last year and immediately went 8-5. I guess they figured that if you are going to play, you need to win. That should not be a problem the next two weeks but then it gets harder.
BUFFALO 7-1 (263-169) ART: none
Tue 10/30 Miami University 3-5 (210-199) ART: none
Tue 11/6 Kent State 1-7 (184-280) ART: -38
Wed 11/14 at Ohio University 5-3 (306-231) ART: none
Fri 11/23 at Bowling Green 1-7 (205-382) ART: -32
Comments: Buffalo had no team from 1971-1998 and from 1999-2017 went 65-160 (.289). All of a sudden they will be favored to wind up 11-1 and be favored in the MAC title game.
CINCINNATI 7-1 (273-126) ART: none
Sat 11/3 Navy 2-6 (226-284) ART: +1
Sat 11/10 South Florida 7-1 (285-237) ART: none
Sat 11/17 at Central Florida 7-0 (311-127) ranked 9/9 ART: none
Fri 11/23 East Carolina 2-5 (150-230) ART: -11
Comments: Cincy has their best team since the Brian Kelly-Butch Jones Era, but maybe not quite that good. Temple smashed their goose-egg. I don’t think they are quite as good as either of the Florida teams or Houston.
FRESNO STATE 7-1 (316-108) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at UNLV 2-6 (253-311) ART: -11
Fri 11/9 at Boise State 6-2 (321-197) ART: -11
Sat 11/17 San Diego State 6-2 (169-157) ART: +2
Sat 11/24 San Jose State 1-7 (197-301) ART: -7
Comments: Fresno has traditionally been one of the better mid-majors in football, (9 Pesci Bowl appearances), which is why it was shocking to see them going 1-11 in 2016 and making their first ever Ty-Dee Bowl appearance. They hired Jeff Tedford, the former California coach who played quarterback for the Bulldogs in the early 80’s. Tedford has totally turned the program around, going 10-4 his first year, a stunning 9 game improvement. This year their record could be better. They lost by a touchdown to a Big Ten team, Minnesota 14-21 after leading late in the fourth quarter. They’ve steamrolled their other seven opponents 302-87, (43-12 per game).
GEORGIA SOUTHERN 7-1 (251-149) ART: -7
Sat 11/3 at Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 (192-284) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Troy 6-2 (274-189) ART: -32
Sat 11/17 at Coastal Carolina 5-3 (252-259) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Georgia State 2-6 (203-293) ART: none
Comments: The Eagles, famous for their triple-option attack that got them six national championships in FCS, are starting to make some noise in FBS. App State, who they just beat, had only three FCS titles. Nobody left on their schedule looks as formidable, although Troy, which has three titles of its own, can be pretty feisty, as LSU found out last year.
HOUSTON 7-1 (398-240) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at Southern Methodist 3-5 (216-287) ART: -45
Sat 11/10 Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Thu 11/15 Tulane 3-5 (197-225) ART: -21
Fri 11/23 at Memphis 4-4 (340-243) ART: +15
Comment: The Cougars, once a power conference team, (SEC), have become one of the most consistently successful mid-majors. They beat USF and should now run the table after that. They are one of the country’s highest scoring teams, averaging 50 points a game. They will surely be the opponent of one of the Florida schools in the AAC title game.
UTAH STATE 7-1 (395-178) ART: +8
Sat 11/3 at Hawaii 6-4 (334-346) ART: none
Sat 11/10 San Jose State 1-7 (197-301) ART: -7
Sat 11/17 at Colorado State 3-6 (221-336) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Boise State 6-2 (321-197) ART: -11
Comments: The Aggies were a top mid-major in the 60’s and 70’s, (a combined 132-75-4). Then they declined sharply, (from 1980-2010 they were 125-222-2). In this decade they had a revival under coaches Gary Anderson and Matt Wells, going 37-17 from 2011-14. They’ve fallen back again since then (15-23 from 2015-17) but are having a strong year this year due to a very productive offense that’s averaging 49 points per game. Their only loss was 31-38 at Michigan State in which the Spartans, down 30-31, scored with 2 minutes left to win it. That trip to Boise looms but it would be no surprise to see Fresno State vs. Utah State for the MWC title – and a possible spot in the Pesci Bowl.
Ty-Dee Bowl Contenders
TEXAS-EL PASO 0-8 (123-240) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at Rice 1-8 (170-351) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Middle Tennessee State 5-3 (227-223) ART: -19
Sat 11/17 at Western Kentucky 1-7 (158-240) ART: -9
Sat 11/24 Southern Mississippi 3-4 (179-141) ART: +3
Comments: UTEP is so bad they lost to New Mexico State. Both used to be good and exciting teams back in the 60’s but since 1970, they have been the two worst programs in the country, (save for Buffalo, who didn’t even have a team most of that time): I-A Winning Percentage 1970-2017
They are looking forward to Rice and Western Kentucky, who are looking forward to them, too. The Miners were 0-12 last year and it could happen again.
We are now down to one winless team so I will include the one loss teams, as well.
BOWLING GREEN 1-7 (205-382) ART: -32
Tue 10/30 Kent State 1-7 (184-280) ART: -38
Sat 11/10 at Central Michigan 1-8 (147-236) ART: -6
Sat 11/17 at Akron 4-3 (157-165) ART: none
Sat 11/23 Buffalo 7-1 (263-169) ART: none
Comments: The Falcons have been hooded since Dino left. They’ve got a great chance to see some daylight these next two weeks. But if they can’t beat the Flashes or the Chippy Wahs, how are they going to handle Akron or Buffalo.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 1-8 (147-236) ART: -6
Sat 11/3 at Eastern Michigan 4-5 (258-230) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Bowling Green 1-7 (205-382) ART: -32
Friday 11/23 at Toledo 4-4 (326-264) ART: -20
Comments: If they can’t beat BG, they’ll probably finish 1-11. Again, couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys, (and yes, they’ve got the same coach).
CONNECTICUT 1-7 (169-382) ART: -86
Sat 11/3 at Tulsa 1-7 (163-228) ART: +2
Sat 11/10 Southern Methodist 3-5 (216-287) ART: -45
Sat 11/17 at East Carolina 2-5 (150-230) ART: -11
Sat 11/24 Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Comment: Another team and coach I’m not sad to see down here. I think Tulsa is better than they are and SMU, ECU and Temple certainly are. The Huskies are giving up 48 points a game, tied with Bowling Green for the worst in the country and have the worst record against ranked teams as well. UCONN just lost to UMASS and the Minutemen looked like the better team.
KENT STATE 1-7 (184-280) ART: -38
Tue 10/30 at Bowling Green 1-7 (205-382) ART: -32
Tue 11/6 at Buffalo 7-1 (263-169) ART: none
Thu 11/15 Toledo 4-4 (326-264) ART: -20
Fri 11/23 Eastern Michigan 4-5 (258-230) ART: none
Comment: The Golden Flashes have looked more like brass door knobs for much of their history. Their all-time winning percentage is the worst of all current FBS schools: I-A Winning Percentage 1869-2017 We lost to them in 1974. Since then they’ve had 17 teams that won 2 or fewer games, including last year – and probably this year, as well.
NORTH CAROLINA 1-6 (161-240) ART: -27
Sat 11/3 Georgia Tech 4-4 (311-226) ART: -5
Sat 11/10 at Duke 5-3 (251-186) ART: none
Sat 11/17 Western Carolina (FCS) 3-5 (274-326) ART: none
Sat 11/24 North Carolina State 5-2 (213-176) ART: -11
Comments: The tar heels clearly don’t belong here but they are here. Western Carolina will surely get them to 2 wins and I wouldn’t be surprised if they bump off one or two more teams and come back strong next year. They’ve got too much talent for the Ty-Dee Bowl.
RICE 1-8 (170-351) ART: none
Sat 11/3 Texas-El Paso 0-8 (123-240) ART: none
Sat 11/10 at Louisiana Tech 6-2 (224-176) ART: +3
Sat 11/17 at Louisiana State 7-1 (243-121) ranked: 4/4 ART: +114
Sat 11/24 Old Dominion 2-7 (240-359) ART: +27
Comments: Rice was once a very respectable program. Under Jess Neely from 1940-66, they went 144-124-10, went to six major bowl games and won half of them. Since then? 199-372-6. They used to be a respected member of a major conference. Now they are a doormat in a bottom 5 conference. But UTEP could keep them from their third Ty-Dee Bowl appearance.
RUTGERS 1-7 (121-270) ART: -27
Sat 11/3 at Wisconsin 5-3 (248-171) ART: -11
Sat 11/10 Michigan 7-1 (288-115) ranked 5/5 ART: +59
Sat 11/17 Penn State 6-2 (328-178) ranked 14/13 ART: +35
Sat 11/24 at Michigan State 5-3 (187-168) ART: +28
Comment: And what SU fan’s heart doesn’t warm up when he looks at the rest of Rutgers’ schedule? Professor Dowling likes it, too: Why Can't Rutgers Ever Win?
SAN JOSE STATE 1-7 (197-301) ART: -7
Sat 11/3 at Wyoming 3-6 (158-225) ART: none
Sat 11/10 at Utah State 7-1 (395-178) ranked 18/20 ART: +8
Sat 11/17 Nevada-Reno 5-4 (289-281) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Fresno State 7-1 (316-108) ranked 20/23 ART: none
Comments: The Spartans beat UNLV to get off the snide. Wyoming appears to be their best shot at avoid the Ty-Dee Bowl. Utah State and Fresno State are their best shots at being blown out.
TULSA 1-7 (163-228) ART: +2
Sat 11/3 Connecticut 1-7 (169-382) ART: -86
Sat 11/10 at Memphis 4-4 (340-243) ART: +15
Sat 11/17 at Navy 2-6 (226-264) ART: +1
Sat 11/24 Southern Methodist 3-5 (216-287) ART: -45
Comments: The Golden Hurricane, (shouldn’t they be the Golden Tornado?) have quite a football history: Tulsa Golden Hurricane football - Wikipedia but not much of a present after two wins last year and one so far this year. I think they will beat UCONN and avoid the Ty-dee Bowl but after that who knows – or - cares?
WESTERN KENTUCKY 1-7 (158-240) ART: -9
Fri 11/2 at Middle Tennessee State 5-3 (227-223) ART: -19
Sat 11/10 at Florida International 6-2 (289-177) ART: -9
Sat 11/17 Texas-El Paso 0-8 (123-240) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Louisiana Tech 6-2 (224-176) ART: +3
Summary: If the hill-bottomers can’t beat UTEP, they’ve got problems.
