The Undefeated- after week 9

[SWC75]

It’s October and so I will once again chart the future challenges of the undefeated in major college football. Once November comes I’ll include the one-loss teams. We now have a four team playoff, (maybe someday we’ll move to 8 with auto bids for the Power Five champions), so more of these teams will continue to have a chance until the very end of the regular season. I’ll limit my coverage to ranked teams. (For fun I’ll also keep track of the teams eligible for the Tidy Bowl, which decides the worst team in the country, although I’ll not spend as much time on them. I think I’ll do a four team playoff for that, too, this year.)

MISSISSIPPI STATE 7-0 (295-151) #1 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 99 points (best in the country).
BYE
Sat 11/1 Arkansas (4-4)
Sat 11/8 UT Martin (4-5 in FCS)
Sat 11/15 at #3 Alabama (7-1)
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt (2-6)
Sat 11/29 at #7-9 Mississippi (7-1)
Comment The Bulldogs keep rolling along. Arkansas is feisty and due for a big win but that’s a home game. But with games at both Alabama and Mississippi coming up, I think they are likely to lose that goose egg at the end of their record before the Final Four is voted upon.

FLORIDA STATE 7-0-0 (265-151) #2 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 35 points.
Thu 10/30 at Louisville (6-2)
Sat 11/8 Virginia (4-4)
Sat 11/15 at Miami (5-3)
Sat 11/22 Boston College (5-3)
Sat 11/29 Florida (3-3)
Comment: The way they’ve been playing and with all the off-the-field distractions, the Noles are vulnerable and think somebody will bump them off, (although none of their remaining opponents are ranked at the present time). The most likely place is at Louisville on Thursday. They’ve got a couple of rivalry games after that and Boston College is pretty good.

The one-loss teams:

ALABAMA 7-1 (298-106) #3 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 73 points.
BYE
Sat 11/8 at #16-17 Louisiana State (7-2)
Sat 11/15 #1 Mississippi State (7-0)
Sat 11/22 West Carolina (6-2 in FCS)
Sat 11/29 #4 Auburn (6-1)
Comment: The Tide never seems to be out of the national championship race. They seem to have floored the gas pedal and will be a team to be reckoned with. But they will have some serious challenges among LSU, MSU and Auburn. But an 11-1 finish would not be a surprise.

AUBURN 6-1 (275-145) #4 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 64 points.
Sat 11/1 at #7-9 Mississippi (7-1)
Sat 11/8 Texas A&M (5-3)
Sat 11/15 at #9-8 Georgia (6-1)
Sat 11/22 Stanford (5-3)
Sat 11/29 at #3 Alabama (7-1)
Comments: The Tigers have a rough road. Every team has a winning record and three of them are 7-1. Stanford has lost a couple of close ones and will be an interesting opponent. Texas A&M may get the wheels back on. Alabama will be out for revenge. And I don’t think the War Eagles are flying quite as high as they were last season.

OREGON 7-1 (364-207) #5 in the writer’s poll #6 in the the coaches’ poll. Versus ranked teams: 38 points.
Sat 11/1 Stanford (5-3)
Sat 11/8 at #18 Utah (6-1)
BYE
Sat 11/22 Colorado (2-6)
Sat 11/29 at Oregon State (4-3)
Comment: Stanford has beaten the Ducks two years running and Utah will be a tough game. But if they get by those two, the Quack attack should be home free.

MICHIGAN STATE 7-1 (364-162) #8-5 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 16 points
BYE
Sat 11/8 #13 Ohio State (6-1)
Sat 11/15 at Maryland (5-3)
Sat 11/22 Rutgers (5-3)
Sat 11/29 at Penn State (4-3)
Comment: If the Spartans can get past Ohio State they should have a good shot at the Final Four. They had a competitive loss to Oregon on the road and it was early, (it’s better to lose early than late), and those SEC teams will be bumping each other off.

NOTRE DAME 6-1 (234-134) #6- 7 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 35 points
Sat 11/1 at Navy (4-4)
Sat 11/8 at #15-14 Arizona State (6-1)
Sat 11/15 Northwestern (3-4)
Sat 11/22 Louisville (6-2)
Sat 11/29 at Southern California (5-3)
Comment: The Irish have the trip to Arizona State and the Louisville game to worry about. Northwestern is getting feisty again and USC is a rivalry game. It would be interesting to see if they can keep an 11-1 Notre Dame team out of a playoff, (especially when that one loss was as close and they could come and it was against a then #1 team on the road.)

MISSISSIPPI 7-1 (255-84) #3 in both polls
Sat 11/1 #5-6 Auburn (6-1)
Sat 11/8 Presbyterian (5-3 in FCS)
BYE
Sat 11/22 at Arkansas (4-4)
Sat 11/29 #1 Mississippi State (7-0)
Comment: Well, Ole Miss went down first. The Egg Bowl won’t be a 1 vs. 2 game. That would have been too perfect. The Rebs still must face Auburn and a trip to Arkansas that could be a trap game. The Egg Bowl will make or break their season. Versus ranked teams: 56 points.

GEORGIA 6-1 (304-140) #9-8 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 91 points, (second in the nation)
Sat 11/1 Florida (3-3)
Sat 11/8 at Kentucky (2-3)
Sat 11/15 #4 Auburn (6-1)
Sat 11/22 Charleston Southern (5-3 in FCS)
Sat 11/29 Georgia Tech (6-2)
Comment: Nobody’s talking about Georgia but their resume is quite good. Their highest ranked remaining opponent, Auburn is at home. Georgia Tech is a rivalry game. They could go into the SEC title game at 11-1. If they win that, they’d be in the Final four for sure.

TEXAS CHRISTIAN 6-1 (353-151) #10 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 88 points
Sat 11/1 at #20-22 West Virginia (6-2)
Sat 11/8 #11 Kansas State (6-1)
Sat 11/15 at Kansas (2-5)
BYE
Thurs 11/27 at Texas (3-5)
Sat 12/6 Iowa State (2-5)
Comment: The Horned Frogs are taking no prisoners since they blew that big lead to Baylor, (which may we why the rung up 82 points on Texas Tech: nobody is going to come back on them again, baby!). The next two games will determine their fate: if they win them, they could wind up a very strong 11-1.

KANSAS STATE 6-1 (258-135) #11 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 31
Sat 11/1 Oklahoma State (5-3)
Sat 11/8 at #10 Texas Christian (6-1)
BYE
Thur 11/20 at #20-22 West Virginia (6-2)
Sat 11/29 Kansas (2-5)
Sat 12/6 at #12 Baylor (6-1)
Comment: They haven’t put up the big scores of Texas Christian but Bill Snyder always had a team that is solid on both sides of the ball. Later comes West Virginia and Baylor. It wouldn’t shock me to wee the Wildcats beat all three of them but it’s not going to be easy.

BAYLOR 6-1 (343-161) #12 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 20 points.
Sat 11/1 Kansas (2-5)
Sat 11/8 at #19-20 Oklahoma (5-2)
BYE
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State (5-3)
Sat 11/29 Texas Tech (3-5)
Sat 12/6 #11 Kansas State (6-1)
Comments: They will continue to light up scoreboards but they have to survive a trip to Norman, (their lone remaining road game), and beat K-State. They are the #12 ranked team and we are getting to the point where it seems unlikely that Baylor or anyone ranked below them could force their way up into the top four with a month to go.

OHIO STATE 6-1 (310-145) #13 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Sat 11/1 Illinois (4-4)
Sat 11/8 at #8 Michigan State (7-1)
Sat 11/15 at Minnesota (6-2)
Sat 11/22 Indiana (3-4)
Sat 11/29 Michigan (3-5)
Comment: It’s strange to see the Buckeyes ranked this low with a 6-1 record but they have the same points vs. ranked teams as Marshall. Unless Minnesota creeps into the bottom of the top 25, the Michigan State game will be their only game against a ranked team all season. Put that with the fact that they lost their Heisman trophy candidate quarterback, Braxton Miller, (even though his replacement, J T. Barrett, has been playing well) and they are in a hole that’s too deep to crawl out of. They may have to start scheduling like Boise State- get a couple of non-conference games against ranked teams because they aren't getting them in conference any more.

ARIZONA 6-1 (284-198) #14-15. Versus ranked teams: 31
Sat 11/1 at #25 UCLA (6-2)
Sat 11/8 Colorado (2-6)
Sat 11/15 Washington (5-3)
Sat 11/22 at #18 Utah (6-1)
Fri 11/28 #15-14 Arizona State (6-1)
Comment: Everybody’s looking forward to Mississippi-Mississippi State but what about Arizona-Arizona State? They are rarely both good at the same time but this is one of those times.

ARIZONA STATE 6-1 (256-177) #15-14. Versus ranked teams: 33 points
Sat 11/1 #18 Utah (6-1)
Sat 11/8 #6-7 Notre Dame (6-1)
Sat 11/15 at Oregon State (4-3)
Sat 11/22 Washington State (2-6)
Fri 11/28 at #14-15 Arizona (6-1)
Comments: Amazingly the Wildcats and Sun Devils have just one common opponent so far: USC beat Arizona 28-26 but lost to State 34-38 on a last second Hail Mary. That’s how evenly matched these teams are.

NEBRASKA 7-1 (329-163) #17-16. Versus ranked teams: 11 points.
Sat 11/1 Purdue (3-5)
BYE
Sat 11/15 at Wisconsin (5-2)
Sat 11/22 Minnesota (6-2)
Fri 11/28 at Iowa (5-2)
Comment: it’s a comment on the Big Ten that Nebraska’s last three opponents all have only two losses and none of them are ranked.

UTAH 6-1 (251-151) #18 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 29 points.
Sat 11/1 at #15-14 Arizona State (6-1)
Sat 11/8 #5 Oregon (7-1)
Sat 11/15 at Stanford (5-3)
Sat 11/22 #14-15 Arizona (7-1)
Sat 11/29 at Colorado (2-6)
Comments: The Utes have done very well but have a very rough road ahead of them. Colorado will look pretty good by the time they get there.

DUKE 6-1 (235-106) #24 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 10 points
Sat 11/1 at Pittsburgh (4-4)
Sat 11/8 at Syracuse (3-5)
Sat 11/15 Virginia Tech (4-4)
Thur 11/20 North Carolina (4-4)
Sat 11/29 Wake Forest (2-6)
Comments: Nobody is talking about Duke, even though they rose from the long dead last year to win their division and go to the ACC title game and then on to a bowl game. They will likely be favored to go 11-1 and again win their division. So why are they ranked way down at #24? Their non-conference schedule consisted of Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. And their ACC division contains no ranked teams. Marshall is ranked above them.


We are now down, ironically, to two undefeated teams, which would be prefect for the old BCS system if they both ran the table, although I don’t think either will. We haven’t ended the regular season with four undefeated teams since 2009- but we had 5 then. Fans of the old BCS are probably rooting for there to be two unbeaten so that can ask what we need these two other teams for. Fans of an eight team playoff, (like me) will be rooting for there to be enough one loss teams that the combined total of them and the undefeated teams will exceed 5. Here are the total undefeated and one loss teams, year by year for the last decade: 2004 4-3, 2005 2-4, 2006 2-4, 2007 1-2, 2008 2-7, 2009 5-1, 2010 3-6, 2011 1-5, 2012 2-5 and 2013 1-9, (yes, 9). That’s an average of 2- 5. There’s been more than four every year but one and in that season, we’d have had to dip into the two loss teams to fill out a top four. And there’s be a lot more than one of them.

 

[SWC75]

THE PESCI BOWL

I decided to inaugurate a third tier of championships. Why not have the top mid majors, (the best teams not in the “power five” conferences), play off? They aren’t going to make the Final Four and they aren’t in FCS, (which, as 1AA, was originally intended for teams like this). What shall we call it? Somehow, into my mind flashed the image of Joe Pesci, who always plays those vertically challenged but feisty guys. Joe could entertain at halftime with his funny stories.

There is one unbeaten mid-major:

MARSHALL 8-0 (367-132) #23 in BOTH POLS. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
BYE
Sat 11/8 at Southern Mississippi 3-5
Sat 11/15 Rice 4-3
Sat 11/22 at Alabama-Birmingham 4-4
Friday 11/28 Western Kentucky 3-4
Comment: The Thundering Herd will stampede through the rest of their schedule as the best “mid major” in the game. They are a cinch for the Pesci Bowl playoffs. A match with East Carolina, whom they lost to 59-65 two years ago and beat 64-61 in the 2001 GMAC bowl could be interesting. They have no chance for the national championship, unlike their days in 1AA. Versus ranked teams: 0 points.

And There are only two one loss mid-majors:

COLORADO STATE 7-1 (262-181) unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Sat 11/1 at San Jose State (3-4)
Sat 11/8 Hawaii (2-6)
BYE
Sat 11/22 New Mexico (2-5)
Fri 11/28 at Air Force (5-2)
Comment: The Rams are a cinch to travel to Colorado Springs 10-1. They have their best team since the Sonny Lubick days.

EAST CAROLINA 6-1 (277-164) ranked #21-19. Versus ranked teams: 16 points (same as Michigan State)
Sat 11/1 at Temple (4-3)
BYE
Thur 11/13 at Cincinnati (4-3)
Sat 11/22 Tulane (2-5)
Fri 11/28 at Tulsa (1-6)
Thur 12/4 Central Florida (5-2)
Comment: The Pirates have clinched what used to be the Big East. Their most impressive wins, 28-21 over then #17 Virginia Tech and 70-41 over a North Carolina team that is giving up big numbers to everybody. They’ve looked kind of pedestrian in beating South Florida 28-17 and Connecticut 31-21. They’ve got road games vs. two 4-3 teams and UCF at the end. I wouldn’t be surprised if they get knocked off. But they still might have a shot at the Pesci Bowl, (if there was one).


That means we’ll have to go to the two loss teams to fill out a mid-major Final Four:

AIR FORCE 5-2 (214-171) unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Sat 11/1 at Army (2-5)
Sat 11/8 at UNLV (2-6)
Sat 11/15 Nevada (5-3)
Fri 11/21 at San Diego State (4-3)
Fri 11/28 Colorado State (7-1)

BOISE STATE 6-2 (279-220) Unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
BYE
Sat 11/8 at New Mexico (2-5)
Sat 11/15 San Diego State (4-3)
Sat 11/22 at Wyoming (3-5)
Sat 11/29 Utah State (5-3)
Comments: They haven’t made much noise the last couple of seasons but these guys are still around. They aren’t as good as they were and they haven’t beaten anybody good but they are still winning football games.

CENTRAL FLORIDA 5-2 (177-134) Unranked. Versus Ranked teams: 0 points
Sat 11/1 at Connecticut (1-6)
BYE
Fri 11/14 Tulsa (1-6)
Sat 11/22 Southern Methodist (0-7)
Fri 11/28 at South Florida (3-5)
Thu 12/4 at East Carolina (6-1)
Comments: George O’Leary doesn’t have Blake Bortles anymore but with three straight walk-overs, he should easily get his team to 8-2. The big one is at the end. That’s make or break for the Pesci playoffs.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN 6-2 (358-178) Unranked . Versus unranked teams: 0 points
Thur 10/30 Troy (1-7)
Sat 11/9 at Texas State(4-3)
Sat 11/15 at Navy (4-4)
BYE
Sat 11/29 Louisiana-Monroe (3-4)
Comment: This is where Paul Johnson learned the triple option. This is also one of those schools that won national championships in FCS And emigrated to FBS, where their kids will never have a chance to win another, (others: Central Michigan, Marshall, Massachusetts, Western Kentucky, Troy, Appalachian State). Why? I’d like to see the none power five FBS schools and the FCS schools joined into one division. There’s little difference between them and they should all have a championship they can win. This team will be 10-2 if they can handle Navy, (another team Johnson once coached).

NORTHERN ILLINOIS 6-2 (273-210) Unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points.
BYE
Wed 11/5 at Ball State (3-5)
Tue 11/11 Toledo (5-3)
Tue 11/18 at Ohio U. (4-5)
Fri 11/28 at Western Michigan 5-3)
Comments: What the heck kind of schedule is THAT? Not a single weekend game? The Huskies have been one of those Pesci-feisty mid-majors and should be able to handle it.

SOUTH ALABAMA 5-2 (170-147) Unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Sat 11/1 at Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3)
Sat 11/8 at Arkansas State (4-3)
Sat 11/15 Texas State (4-3)
Sat 11/22 at South Carolina (4-4)
Fri 11/28 Navy (4-4)
Comment: These guys are a major college team? Not really. They are just pretending. They’ll lose those last two games and it probably won’t be close.

 

[SWC75]

THE Ty-De-Bowl

This is a four team playoff to determine who is the worst team in the country, The losers of the semi-finals move on to the “Ty-De-Bowl ”, where the Ty-De-Bowl guy entertains at halftime with his ukulele. (He did have one in some of the ads I remember)

There’s only one winless team in all of FBS:

SOUTHERN METHODIST 0-7 (49-336)
Sat 11/8 at Tulsa (1-6)
Sat 11/15 South Florida (3-5)
Sat 11/22 at Central Florida (5-2)
Fri 11/28 Houston (4-3)
Sat 12/6 at Connecticut (1-6)
Comment: the Mustangs are the one truly terrible team in major college football. They say Mack Brown is after this job. Really Mac? You couldn’t beat BYU’s 9 4-5 star recruits with your 44 when you were at Texas and yet you want to take over this mess and make it your own? They play two 1-6 teams but don’t expect them to beat them.

The one-win teams:

CONNECTICUT 1-6 (98-185)
Sat 11/1 Central Florida (5-2)
Sat 11/8 at Army (2-5)
BYE
Sat 11/22 Cincinnati (4-3)
Sat 11/29 at Memphis (4-3)
Sat 12/6 Southern Methodist (0-7)
Comment: The Huskies’ one win was over Stony Brook. They should roll into the SMU game at 1-10. At least they’ve played competitively. Must be the facilities.

GEORGIA STATE (1-7) 210-349
Sat 11/1 at Appalachian State (2-5)
Sat 11/8 at Troy (1-7)
BYE
Sat 11/22 at #22 Clemson (6-2)
Sat 11/29 Texas State (4-3)
Comment: The Sun Belt is an entire conference of teams that obviously have no business being in Division 1. How clever to put them all in the same conference so they can play each other and maintain the illusion. The Georgia State-Troy game will, in effect, be a Ty-De-Bowl elimination game. The Panthers won their opener by a single point over Abilene Christian, (an FCS team) and have crapped out ever since.

IDAHO 1-6 (181-265)
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State (4-3)
Sat 11/8 at San Diego State (4-3)
Sat 11/15 Troy (1-6)
BYE
Sat 11/29 at Appalachian State (2-5)
Comments: The Vandals are not really that bad. They’ve lost games by 5, 7 and a couple my 12 points. They are a cut above your classic Ty-De-Bowl team. Playing troy should keep them out of this year’s classic.

KENT STATE 1-7 (112-235)
Tue 11/4 Toledo (5-3)
Wed 11/12 at Bowling Green (5-3)
Wed 11/19 at Buffalo (3-5)
Tue 11/25 Akron (4-4)
Comment: All you need to know about the Golden Flashes is that they couldn’t beat Miami, (sorry Accurater II- I couldn’t resist). Another bizarre MAC schedule. Yeah, they get on national TV- but who’s watching? It must drive the caches crazy to prepare teams for Tuesday and Wednesday games. These kids get beat up and have to be in class the next day.

TROY 1-7 (150-312)
Thu 10/30 at Georgia Southern (6-2)
Sat 11/8 Georgia State (1-7)
Sat 11/15 at Idaho (1-6)
Sat 11/29 Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3)
Comment: These Trojans won the NAIA title in 1968 and the NCAA Division II title in 1984. That must seem like a long time ago. Fortunately they’ve got Georgia State and Idaho on the schedule so their season may end on time.

TULSA 1-6 (171-285)
Fri 10/31 at Memphis (4-3)
Sat 11/8 Southern Methodist (0-7)
Fri 11/14 at Central Florida (5-2)
Sat 11/22 at Houston (4-3)
Fri 11/28 #21-19 East Carolina (6-1)
Comment: Didn’t these guys used to be good? It’s very impressive that three of the worst teams in the country are in the same conference. It’s a pity they don’t play Connecticut. But then there’s the Ty-De-Bowl!


Overall: The first ever Ty-De-Bowl playoffs look like they’ll be a battle between the AAC and the Sun Belt, unless Kent State can sneak in there somewhere. Stay tuned!

 

[CanadianSU]

Again, Marshall needs more respect.

 

[SWC75]

Again, Marshall needs more respect.

You're right!