The Undefeated - final | Syracusefan.com

The Undefeated - final

SWC75

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Each fall for several years, I’ve been doing a series of posts I call “the Undefeated”, in which I keep track of the undefeated teams and their remaining schedules so we can assess the likelihood of their remaining undefeated and play in, at first the BCS championship game and now the 4 team playoff. When there were fewer undefeated teams than the 2 and then 4 teams that would get to compete for the national championship, I switched to one loss teams. Eventually I introduced two other competitions: the Pesci bowl, named after vertically challenged but feisty character actor Joe Pesci for the two best non-power conference BCS team and the Ty-Dee Bowl, named after a toilet cleaner, for the two worst BCS teams.

In 2020, I haven’t done The Undefeated because the Big 10 and Pac 12 had apparently cancelled their seasons and II wasn’t sure if there was even going to be a playoff. Apparently now there will be so I’m going todo a belated “Undefeated” post.

The situation among the ‘Group of Five’ is particularly interesting this year and the race for the Pesci Bowl is a hot one, with a big game between Coastal Carolina and Brigham Young today. And we might find ourselves in the Ty-Dee Bowl so I felt the need to scout the “opposition” to see the likelihood of our staying out of it.

POWER FIVE PLAYOFF

The teams chosen for the four-team playoff are:

ALABAMA 11-0 (547-214) ranked #1

CLEMSON 10-1 (494-193) ranked #2 (4th by writers)

OHIO STATE 6-0 (255-126) ranked #3 (3rd by writers)

NOTRE DAME 10-1 (387-205) ranked #4


Other power conference teams with the same number of losses:

COLORADO 4-1 (148-135) unranked

INDIANA 6-1 (211-136) ranked #11 (7th by writers and 8th by the coaches)

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 5-1 (200-156) ranked #17 (21st by the writers and 19th by the coaches)

TEXAS A&M 8-1 (285-190) ranked #5

WASHINGTON 3-1 (121-100) unranked


I don’t think there’s a lot of controversy that they got the right teams and in the right order. The Irish got clobbered 10-34 by Clemson but they did split with them. Texas A&M got clobbered by Alabama 24-52 and didn’t get a rematch. A better case could be made for Indiana, who lost 35-42 to Ohio State. I’m not sure why the committee ranked them as low as they did butt hey seem never to have bene in contention. All three polls ranked them behind A&M. the Pac 12 teams were never really in it after a late start. None of them were that impressive and their last shot ended when a two loss Oregon team beat them in the conference title game. All the big 12 teams had two losses early and were not considered. Outside the Power 5, Cincinnati was the highest ranked team at 9-0 and #8, (#6 in the writer’s and coaches’ polls, leading one to wonder if the committee intentionally underrates the mid-majors). Their strength of schedule was actually above Ohio State’s but noblesse oblige. 11-0 Coastal Carolina got as high as #9 in the writer’s poll, #11 in the coaches and #12 by the committee.

I heard an argument on the radio today that to determine if a team deserved a spot in the playoff, you’ve got to imagine them playing Alabama competitively. If that’s the test there have been a lot of teams in the BCS title game or playoff that shouldn’t have been there. My view is that the purpose of having divisions is to give everyone a shot at a title. In FCS, Division II, Division III and the NAIA, if a team beats everyone in front of them, they will find themselves in a playoff for the national championship. That’s not true in FBS. Anyone outside the Power Five will be told that their achievements don’t matter because if they’d been in a power five conference, they wouldn’t be undefeated or so highly ranked. If you can’t get into your division’s playoff by beating everyone you play, (and your schedule consists of teams in the division), you are either in the wrong division or the playoff system is flawed.

One solution would be to separate the Power Five and put them in their own division. Then the non-Power Five teams could join up with FCS, from which most of them came and give North Dakota State some competition. Until then, we need a playoff system that gives everyone in FBS a path to compete for the title, even if they would be unlikely to beat Alabama. I like the scheme of an 8 team playoff with automatic bids to the five power conference champions and another to the highest ranked non-power five team, (not named Notre Dame), plus two wild card teams. And I wouldn’t mind a 16 team playoff with all 10 conference champions and six wild cards. Don’t tell me it couldn’t be done. FCS has a 24 team playoff, DII 28 teams and DIII 32 teams.

Here’s what an 8 team playoff would look like:

Alabama 11-0 (547-214) vs. Oregon 4-2 (202-164)
Clemson 10-1 (494-193) vs. Cincinnati 9-0 (354-144)
Ohio State 6-0 (255-126) vs. Oklahoma 8-2 (418-219)
Notre Dame 10-1 (387-205) vs. Texas A&M 8-1 (285-190)

And here’s what a 16 team playoff would look like:

Alabama 11-0 (547-214) vs. Alabama-Birmingham 6-3 (256-193)
Clemson 10-1 (494-193) vs. Ball State 6-1 (240-193)
Ohio State 6-0 (255-126) vs. Oregon 4-2 (202-164)
Notre Dame 10-1(387-205) vs. San Jose State 7-0 (216-125)
Texas A&M 8-1 (285-190) vs. Coastal Carolina 11-0 (412-206)
Oklahoma 8-2 (418-219) vs. Indiana 6-1 (211-136)
Florida 8-3 (458-315) vs. Iowa State 8-3 (361-240)
Cincinnati 9-0 (354-144) vs. Georgia 7-2 (299-179)

Note: The Coastal Carolina -Louisiana game was canceled due to Covid and they were declared co-champions of the Sun belt conference. Coastal had the better record and higher ranking so I just chose them. It allowed me to get Indiana in. I was a little disappointed that there was no way to get BYU or Liberty in. It was a great year for the mid-majors.


PESCI BOWL

It comes down to:

CINCINNATI 9-0 (354-144) ranked #8 (#6h by writers and coaches)

COASTAL CAROLINA 11-0 (412-206) ranked #12 (#9 by writers, #11 by the coaches)

SAN JOSE STATE 7-0 (216-125) ranked #22 (#19 by the writers and #20 coaches)

By numerical record, point differential and ranking it’s got to be:

Cincinnati 9-0 (354-144) vs. Coastal Carolina 11-0 (412-206)


TY-DEE BOWL

Maybe there should be two Ty-Dee Bowls, one for the worst power conference teams and one for the rest of BCS. If there were:

ARIZONA 0-5 (87-199)
Comment: losing to an arch-rival 7-70 is not good for your job security.

KANSAS 0-9 (142-414)
Comment: The Jayhawks have no talons.

VANDERBILT 0-9 (133-336)
Comment: The Commodores sailed right into the Ty Dee Bowl.

By comparison:

SYRACUSE 1-10 (196-360)
Comment: We have more losses than any other BCS team but at least we have a win and I don’t think we are quite as bad as the Jayhawks or the Commodores. Still, let’s root not just for SU but also for Texas, Tennessee and Georgia to keep us out of Power 5 Ty-Dee Bowl. Also, mention Georgia Tech, who turned the ball over 5 times and committed 15 penalties in our game, in your prayers.

DECISION:

KANSAS 0-9 (142-414) vs. VANDERBILT 0-9 (133-336)

….is what the Ty-Dee Bowl is all about!

A Ty-Dee Bowl for the Group of Five and independents would likely be drawn from the following winless teams:

BOWLING GREEN 0-5 (57-225)
Comments: The Falcons lost to 0-4 Akron, 3-31. Eastern Illinois won’t be playing until the spring so Dino’s teams are 1-15 this year.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 0-5 (112-162)
Comment: They shocked the world.

LOUISIANA-MONROE 0-10 (163-420)
Comment: None of these teams will be able to match the Warhawk’s record of non-accomplishment.

MASSACHUSETTS 0-4 (12-161)
Comment: Their season is over, perfection thus achieved.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS 0-6 (149-232)
Comments: see above.

NEVADA-LAS VEGAS 0-6 (104-228)
Comments: The Rebels came up craps.

DECISION:

Based on point differentials, it will be:

BOWLING GREEN 0-5 (57-225) vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE 0-10 (163-420)
 
I decided to look at how some past years might have looks with 8 and 16 team playoffs as well as the Pesci Bowl, (between the two best non-power five teams) and the Ty-Dee Bowls (between the two worst power five teams and non-power five teams) using this website:
The eight team playoff would feature the champions of the power five league, the highest ranked non-power five team and the two highest ranked at large teams. The sixteen team playoff would feature the champions of all four conferences plus six at large teams.

2019

Eight Team Playoff

Quarter-finals:
Louisiana State 13-0 (621-275) vs. Memphis 12-1 (527-317) Winner: LSU 37-25
Ohio State 13-0 (633-163) vs. Baylor 11-2 (457-251) Winner: Ohio State 37-10
Clemson 13-0 (605-138) vs. Oregon 11-2 (467-204) Winner: Oregon 38-35
Oklahoma 12-1 (562-319) vs. Georgia 11-2 (405-162) Winner: Georgia 38-26

Semi-Finals:
Louisiana State 14-0 (658-300) vs. Oregon 12-2 (505-239) Winner: LSU 24-20
Ohio State 13-0 (633-163) vs. Oklahoma 12-1 (562-319) Winner: Ohio State 34-31

Finals
Louisiana State 15-0 (682-320) vs. Ohio State 14-0 (667-194) Winner: LSU 45-17


Sixteen Team Playoff

First Round
Louisiana State 13-0 (621-275) vs. Miami University 8-5 (321-367) Winner: LSU 51-10
Ohio State 13-0 (633-163) vs. Florida Atlantic 10-3 (458-290) Winner: Ohio State 51-9
Clemson 13-0 (605-138) vs. Appalachian St 12-1 (512-263) Winner: Clemson 44-10
Oklahoma 12-1 (562-319) vs. Boise State 12-1 (479-268) Winner: Oklahoma 41-17
Georgia 11-2 (405-162) vs. Memphis 12-1 (527-317) Winner: Georgia 28-27
Oregon 11-2 (467-204) vs. Utah 11-2 (442-172) Winner: Oregon 31-26
Baylor 11-2 (457-251) vs. Penn State 10-2 (412-169) Winner: Baylor 29-24
Wisconsin 10-3 (450-209) vs. Florida 10-2 (396-173) Winner: Wisconsin 29-24

Quarterfinals
Louisiana State 14-0 (672-285) vs. Wisconsin 11-3 (479-233) Winner: LSU 35-31
Ohio State 14-0 (684-172) vs. Baylor 12-2 (486-275) Winner: Ohio State 30-22
Clemson 14-0 (649-148) vs. Oregon 12-2 (498-230) Winner: Clemson 44-31
Oklahoma 13-1 (603-336) vs. Georgia 12-2 (433-189) Winner: Georgia 52-24

Semifinals
Louisiana State 15-0 (707-316) vs. Georgia 13-2 (485-213) Winner: LSU 35-27
Ohio State 15-0 (714-194) vs. Clemson 15-0 (693-179) Winner: Clemson 29-23
(Note: the LSU-Georgia game was a rematch of the SEC title game but was thus a separate game. The Clemson-Ohio State game was an actual national semi-final game so I just adopted the score)

Finals
Louisiana State 16-0 (742-343) vs. Clemson 16-0 (722-202) Winner: LSU 42-25
(The actual score of the national title game.)

Comments: Yes, the same team won. That doesn't mean that expanded playoffs might not be a good idea. It's a question of fairness and completeness, not a search for a different winner. And these scores don't prove anything. they are just a peak at one of several alternate realities to see what an expanded playoff might look like. I specifically re-did the Clemson - Oregon game twice - once for each tourney and got different results. I don't know how this website comes up with their simulated games. I assume it's some kind of 'computer ball', where they ran a hundred games and when you request one you randomly get one of the 100 games they've already programed. The idea is to have a little fun with it and get an artist's conception of an expanded playoff.

I was curious to see how the 'mid majors' would do in these playoffs. According to this simulation, Memphis would have been pretty competitive, App State and Boise not so much. Miami and Florida Atlantic were predictably overmatched. But at least their conferences were represented in the playoff.


Pesci Bowl
Memphis 12-1 (527-317) vs. Boise State 12-1 (479-268) Winner: Memphis 36-9


Power Five Ty-Dee Bowl
Rutgers 2-10 (159-440) vs. Arkansas 2-10 (257-442) Winner: Rutgers 30-23


Non-Power Five Ty-Dee Bowl
Akron 0-12 (126-435) vs. Massachusetts 1-11 (237-632) Winner: Akron 28-10
 

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