SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In its 15 years, 30 teams have played for the national championship. 18 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 11 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. 5 had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only three times have we had a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now), so for now I will include AAC teams.
Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
ALABAMA 8-0 (330-78) writers: #1, coaches: #1 BCS: #1
11/9 Louisiana State 7-2 (362-191) writers #10, coaches #12 and BCS: #13
11/16 at Mississippi State 4-4 (227-194)
11/23 Chattanooga 7-2 (282-169)
11/30 at Auburn 8-1 (331-181) writers: #7 coaches: #10, BCS: #9
Comment: Suddenly it’s looking like the rivalry game with Auburn might be the biggest hurdle the rest of the way. But the Tigers don’t have Cam Newton anymore and when they are good the Tide usually wins that game.
OREGON 8-0 (445-135) writers: #2, coaches: #2 BCS: #3
11/7 at Stanford 7-1 (261-155) writers #6 and coaches: #6 BCS: #5
11/16 Utah 4-4 (249-206)
11/23 at Arizona 6-2 (287-167)
11/29 Oregon State 6-3 (335-250)
Comments: Statistically, the Ducks are a very impressive team. They have out-scored their opposition by an average of 39 points. But they have a very bumpy ride coming up: three teams with winning records plus the Utah team that upset Stanford, then the Pac 12 title game. Each could be that team that ruins their national title hopes.
OHIO STATE 9-0 (434-143) writers, coaches and BCS: #4
11/9 BYE
11/16 at Illinois 3-5 (232-236)
11/23 Indiana 3-5 (335-305)
11/30 at Michigan 6-2 (303-206)
Comment: Ranked #4 and without a ranked team the rest of the season, the Buckeyes are rolling scores up in an attempt to impress the voters and stat nerds. But they will likely need some help from the opponents of the three teams ranked ahead of them.
FLORIDA STATE 8-0 (409-105) writers and coaches: #3, BCS: #2
11/9 at Wake Forest 4-5 (151-203)
11/16 Syracuse 4-4 (201-203)
11/23 Idaho 1-8 (152-398)
11/30 at Florida 4-4 (168-137)
Comment: The Noles have the most impressive resume so far but they won’t have a real chance to add to it the rest of the way. Even the ACC title game will probably just be a rematch with Miami. They moved ahead of Oregon in the BCS but that’s likely temporary. They will be rooting hard for Stanford.
BAYLOR 7-0 (447-131) writers and coaches: #5, BCS: #6
11/7 Oklahoma 7-1 (248-150) writers: #12, coaches: #8, BCS: #10
11/16 Texas Tech 7-2 (352-221) at Arlington writers #25 coaches: #23, BCS: #25
11/23 Oklahoma State 7-1 (324-171) writers: #15, coaches #11, BCS: #14
11/30 at TCU 3-6 (211-212)
12/7 Texas 6-2 (263-182)
Comment: The Bears are the most fun team in the country, averaging a nifty 64 points per game is there any way this team could be marches with Oregon, (who is averaging 56) in a bowl game? If they can get by the Oklahomas and Texas Tech, they could run the table. (But suddenly Mack Brown and G-Rob are on a roll.) That would make them a “BCS buster” that’s within the BCS. But it likely won’t be enough.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now), so for now I will include AAC teams.
Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
ALABAMA 8-0 (330-78) writers: #1, coaches: #1 BCS: #1
11/9 Louisiana State 7-2 (362-191) writers #10, coaches #12 and BCS: #13
11/16 at Mississippi State 4-4 (227-194)
11/23 Chattanooga 7-2 (282-169)
11/30 at Auburn 8-1 (331-181) writers: #7 coaches: #10, BCS: #9
Comment: Suddenly it’s looking like the rivalry game with Auburn might be the biggest hurdle the rest of the way. But the Tigers don’t have Cam Newton anymore and when they are good the Tide usually wins that game.
OREGON 8-0 (445-135) writers: #2, coaches: #2 BCS: #3
11/7 at Stanford 7-1 (261-155) writers #6 and coaches: #6 BCS: #5
11/16 Utah 4-4 (249-206)
11/23 at Arizona 6-2 (287-167)
11/29 Oregon State 6-3 (335-250)
Comments: Statistically, the Ducks are a very impressive team. They have out-scored their opposition by an average of 39 points. But they have a very bumpy ride coming up: three teams with winning records plus the Utah team that upset Stanford, then the Pac 12 title game. Each could be that team that ruins their national title hopes.
OHIO STATE 9-0 (434-143) writers, coaches and BCS: #4
11/9 BYE
11/16 at Illinois 3-5 (232-236)
11/23 Indiana 3-5 (335-305)
11/30 at Michigan 6-2 (303-206)
Comment: Ranked #4 and without a ranked team the rest of the season, the Buckeyes are rolling scores up in an attempt to impress the voters and stat nerds. But they will likely need some help from the opponents of the three teams ranked ahead of them.
FLORIDA STATE 8-0 (409-105) writers and coaches: #3, BCS: #2
11/9 at Wake Forest 4-5 (151-203)
11/16 Syracuse 4-4 (201-203)
11/23 Idaho 1-8 (152-398)
11/30 at Florida 4-4 (168-137)
Comment: The Noles have the most impressive resume so far but they won’t have a real chance to add to it the rest of the way. Even the ACC title game will probably just be a rematch with Miami. They moved ahead of Oregon in the BCS but that’s likely temporary. They will be rooting hard for Stanford.
BAYLOR 7-0 (447-131) writers and coaches: #5, BCS: #6
11/7 Oklahoma 7-1 (248-150) writers: #12, coaches: #8, BCS: #10
11/16 Texas Tech 7-2 (352-221) at Arlington writers #25 coaches: #23, BCS: #25
11/23 Oklahoma State 7-1 (324-171) writers: #15, coaches #11, BCS: #14
11/30 at TCU 3-6 (211-212)
12/7 Texas 6-2 (263-182)
Comment: The Bears are the most fun team in the country, averaging a nifty 64 points per game is there any way this team could be marches with Oregon, (who is averaging 56) in a bowl game? If they can get by the Oklahomas and Texas Tech, they could run the table. (But suddenly Mack Brown and G-Rob are on a roll.) That would make them a “BCS buster” that’s within the BCS. But it likely won’t be enough.
