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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 1183385, member: 289"] It’s October and so I will once again chart the future challenges of the undefeated in major college football. Once November comes I’ll include the one-loss teams. We now have a four team playoff, (maybe someday we’ll move to 8 with auto bids for the Power Five champions), so more of these teams will continue to have a chance until the very end of the regular season. I’ll limit my coverage to ranked teams. (For fun I’ll also keep track of the teams eligible for the Tidy Bowl, which decides the worst team in the country, although I’ll not spend as much time on them. I think I’ll do a four team playoff for that, too, this year.) A note on rankings: the first is the ranking of the College Football Playoff Committee, then the AP (writer’s) poll, the USA Today (coach’s) poll and finally the ESPN power ranking. The College Football Playoff Committee ranking is from last week and doesn’t include this past weekend’s results. MISSISSIPPI STATE 8-0 (312-161) #1 in all polls. Versus ranked teams: 99 points (best in the country). BYE Sat 11/8 UT Martin (5-5 in FCS) Sat 11/15 at #6-4-4-6 Alabama (7-1) Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt (3-6) Sat 11/29 at #4-12-13-13 Mississippi (7-2) Comment The Bulldogs keep rolling along. But with games at both Alabama and Mississippi coming up, I think they are likely to lose that goose egg at the end of their record before the Final Four is voted upon. FLORIDA STATE 8-0 (307-182) #2 in all polls. Versus ranked teams: 47 points. Sat 11/8 Virginia (4-5) Sat 11/15 at Miami (6-3) Sat 11/22 Boston College (6-3) Sat 11/29 Florida (4-3) Comment: I’ve changed my mind on the Noles. Because they were playing close games this year and not blowing people away, I’ve assumed that they were going to lose at some point during the regular season. But it’s obvious this year is about meeting challenges, not about dominating from the opening kickoff, and that is impressive in itself. They’ve got a couple of rivalry games coming up and Boston College is pretty good but I’m now going to be surprised if they lose any of those games. But I’ll still be surprised to see them repeat as national champion. Their dominant team won by the skin of their teeth. I see this team coming up short if they have to take on an SEC champion again. The one-loss teams: ALABAMA 7-1 (298-106) #6-4-4-6 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 73 points. BYE Sat 11/8 at #19-14-15-16 Louisiana State (7-2) Sat 11/15 #1 Mississippi State (8-0) Sat 11/22 West Carolina (6-3 in FCS) Sat 11/29 #3 Auburn (7-1) Comment: The Tide never seems to be out of the national championship race. They seem to have floored the gas pedal and will be a team to be reckoned with. But they will have some serious challenges among LSU, MSU and Auburn. But an 11-1 finish would not be a surprise. AUBURN 7-1 (310-176) #3 in all polls. Versus ranked teams: 90 points. Sat 11/8 Texas A&M (6-3) Sat 11/15 at #11-17-17-17 Georgia (6-2) Sat 11/22 Samford (5-3 in FCS) Sat 11/29 at #6-4-4-6 Alabama (7-1) Comments: The Tigers have a rough road. Every team has a winning record and one of them is a vengeful Alabama. Texas A&M may get the wheels back on. I don’t think the War Eagles are flying quite as high as they were last season and their luck has to run out sometime. OREGON 8-1 (409-223) #5-5-5-4 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 38 points. Sat 11/8 at #17-20-22-18 Utah (6-2) BYE Sat 11/22 Colorado (2-7) Sat 11/29 at Oregon State (4-4) Comment: The Ducks aren’t invincible and Utah will be a tough game. But I think Oregon has had its loss for the year. I’ll be surprised if they aren’t in the Final Four, especially since they own that win over Michigan State. The Quack attack should make things fun, even if their record against the SEC isn’t good. MICHIGAN STATE 7-1 (364-162) #8-7-6-7 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 16 points BYE Sat 11/8 #16-13-11-11 Ohio State (7-1) Sat 11/15 at Maryland (6-4) Sat 11/22 Rutgers (5-4) Sat 11/29 at Penn State (4-4) Comment: If the Spartans can get past Ohio State they have a shot at the Final Four. They had a competitive loss to Oregon on the road and it was early, (it’s better to lose early than late), and those SEC teams will be bumping each other off. But the winner of the TCU- Kansas State game might have a better case, even if they are currently ranked lower. NOTRE DAME 7-1 (283-173) #10-8-8-9 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 35 points Sat 11/8 at #14-11-12-12 Arizona State (7-1) Sat 11/15 Northwestern (3-5) Sat 11/22 Louisville (6-3) Sat 11/29 at Southern California (6-3) Comment: The Irish have the trip to Arizona State and Louisville might still be a threat. USC is a rivalry game. The committee gave them no extra credit for being Notre Dame, which is pleasing. TEXAS CHRISTIAN 7-1 (384-181) #7-6-7-5 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 95 points Sat 11/8 #9-9-9-8 Kansas State (7-1) Sat 11/15 at Kansas (2-6) BYE Thurs 11/27 at Texas (4-5) Sat 12/6 Iowa State (2-6) Comment: It’s all about Kansas State. If they get by that game they should roll to 11-1 and win the Big 12. And their resume is going to be better than Michigan State, (or Ohio State). There’s no title game in the Big 12 anymore. That’s a double-edged sword. It’s one less risk to their won-loss record but a lost opportunity to add to their reputation by beating another good team. But maybe they won’t need to beat anyone else. KANSAS STATE 7-1 (306-149) #9-9-9-8 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 31 Sat 11/8 at #7-6-7-5 Texas Christian (7-1) BYE Thur 11/20 at #UR-24-25-23 West Virginia (6-3) Sat 11/29 Kansas (2-6) Sat 12/6 at #13-10-10-10 Baylor (7-1) Comment: They haven’t put up the big scores of Texas Christian but Bill Snyder always had a team that is solid on both sides of the ball. Later come West Virginia and Baylor. It wouldn’t shock me to wee the Wildcats beat all three of them but it’s not going to be easy. Unlike TCU they are not a cinch for 11-1 if they win that game. BAYLOR 7-1 (403-175) #13-10-10-10 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 20 points. Sat 11/8 at #18-16-16-14 Oklahoma (6-2) BYE Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State (5-4) Sat 11/29 Texas Tech (3-6) Sat 12/6 #9-9-9-8 Kansas State (7-1) Comments: They will continue to light up scoreboards but they have to survive a trip to Norman, (their lone remaining road game), and beat K-State. They are the #13 ranked team by the committee and here we are getting to the point where it seems unlikely that Baylor or anyone ranked below them could force their way up into the top four with less than a month to go. OHIO STATE 7-1 (365-159) #16-13-11-11 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 0 points Sat 11/8 at #8-7-6-7 Michigan State (7-1) Sat 11/15 at Minnesota (6-2) Sat 11/22 Indiana (3-5) Sat 11/29 Michigan (4-5) Comment: It’s strange to see the Buckeyes ranked this low with a 7-1 record but they have the same points vs. ranked teams as Marshall. Unless Minnesota creeps into the bottom of the top 25, the Michigan State game will be their only game against a ranked team all season. Put that with the fact that they lost their Heisman trophy candidate quarterback, Braxton Miller, (even though his replacement, J T. Barrett, has been playing well) and they are in a hole that’s too deep to crawl out of. ARIZONA STATE 7-1 (275-193) #14-11-12-12. Versus ranked teams: 45 points Sat 11/8 #10-8-8-9 Notre Dame (7-1) Sat 11/15 at Oregon State (4-4) Sat 11/22 Washington State (2-7) Fri 11/28 at #12-21-21-21 Arizona (6-2) Comments: The Sun devils will sneak up on people if they can beat Notre Dame, arch-rival Arizona and then Oregon in the Pac 12 title game. That’s a tall order but if Arizona could win at Oregon it doesn’t seem impossible. NEBRASKA 8-1 (364-177) #15-15-14-15. Versus ranked teams: 11 points. BYE Sat 11/15 at #UR-25-24-24 Wisconsin (6-2) Sat 11/22 Minnesota (6-2) Fri 11/28 at Iowa (6-2) Comment: it’s a comment on the Big Ten that Nebraska’s last three opponents all have only two losses and none of them are ranked. DUKE 7-1 (286-154) #24-22-20-22 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 10 points Sat 11/8 at Syracuse (3-6) Sat 11/15 Virginia Tech (4-5) Thu 11/20 North Carolina (4-5 Sat 11/29 Wake Forest (2-6) Comments: Nobody is talking about Duke, even though they rose from the long dead last year to win their division and go to the ACC title game and then on to a bowl game. They will likely be favored to go 11-1 and again win their division. So why are they ranked way down at #24? Their non-conference schedule consisted of Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. And their ACC division contains no ranked teams. Marshall is ranked above them. But if they should upset Florida State in the ACC title game…but they won’t. We are now down, ironically, to two undefeated teams, which would be prefect for the old BCS system if they both ran the table, although I don’t think either will. We haven’t ended the regular season with four undefeated teams since 2009- but we had 5 then. Fans of the old BCS are probably rooting for there to be two unbeatens so they can ask: “What we need these two other teams for?” Fans of an eight team playoff, (like me) will be rooting for there to be enough one loss teams that the combined total of them and the undefeated teams will exceed 5. Here are the total undefeated and one loss teams, year by year for the last decade: 2004 4-3, 2005 2-4, 2006 2-4, 2007 1-2, 2008 2-7, 2009 5-1, 2010 3-6, 2011 1-5, 2012 2-5 and 2013 1-9, (yes, 9). That’s an average of 2- 5. There’s been more than four every year but one and in that season, we’d have had to dip into the two loss teams to fill out a top four. And there’d be a lot more than one of them. This year there are still two undefeated teams and 12 one loss teams among the power conferences, with four weeks left in the regular season. [/QUOTE]

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