SWC75
Bored Historian
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It’s October and so I will once again chart the future challenges of the undefeated in major college football. Once November comes I’ll include the one-loss teams. We now have a four team playoff, (maybe someday we’ll move to 8 with auto bids for the Power Five champions), so more of these teams will continue to have a chance until the very end of the regular season. I’ll limit my coverage to ranked teams. (For fun I’ll also keep track of the teams eligible for the Pesci Bowl, the top mid-majors in the country and the Tydee Bowl, which decides the worst team in the country, although I’ll not spend as much time on them. I think I’ll do a four team playoff for them, too.)
A note on rankings: the first is the ranking of the AP (writer’s) poll, then the USA Today (coach’s) poll the ESPN power ranking and finally College Football Playoff Committee, (which won’t start until November 3rd). The total is based on a 25 points for 1st, 24 for 2nd, etc. system. They are listed in order of that total. (Shortcut- if they are ranked in all the polls: add the rankings and subtract from 78 or 104 once the committee joins in.)
I’ll also include the team’s points “Against Ranked Teams” from my latest post of that title, their won-lost record and their points for and against. I’ll supply the same info in the same format for each future opponent.
CLEMSON 9-0 (348-154) 42 ART rank: 1-2-1-1 total: 99
Sat 11/14 at Syracuse 3-6 (251-276) 8 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 Wake Forest 3-6 (168-207) 8 ART not ranked
Sat 11/28 at South Carolina 3-6 (195-246) 0 ART not ranked
Comments: The rest of the regular season schedule is a tiptoe through the tulips. UNC in the ACC title game could present a substantial roadblock to the playoff. I doubt a one loss ACXC team would get in, and especially not one that had just lost for the first time. Voters have short memories and it’s better to lose early than to lose late.
OHIO STATE 9-0 (336-135) 0 points against ranked teams (ART) rank: 2-1-3-3 total: 95
Sat 11/14 at Illinois 5-4 (232-195) 2 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 Michigan State 8-1 (305-216) 40 ART rank: 14-14-14-13 total: 49
Sat 11/28 at Michigan 7-2 (278-109) 101 ART rank: 15-15-15-14 total: 45
Comments: T. J. Barrett was suspended for a game but they still have Cardell Jones. Illinois is slumping so the Buckeyes likely won’t be threatened until they face the Michigan teams. They have zero points against ranked teams but they didn’t have any at this point last year, either.
BAYLOR 8-0 (459-200) 0 ART rank: 4-3-4-6 total: 87
Sat 11/14 Oklahoma 8-1 (417-163) 33 ART rank: 12-11-10-12 total: 59
Sat 11/21 at Oklahoma State 9-0 (401-214) 38 ART rank: 5-5-6-8 total: 80
Fri 11/27 at Texas Christian 8-1 (420-245) 0 ART rank: 13-12-13-15 total: 51
Sat 12/ 5 Texas 4-5 (229-261) 23 A RT not ranked
Comments: The Bears are about to play their first ranked team this season. Then their second, then their third. If they survive that, they’ll be in the playoff. If they don’t, they probably won’t.
IOWA 9-0 (296-149) 47 ART rank: 8-8-7-5 total: 76
Sat 11/14 Minnesota 4-5 (183-219) 34 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 Purdue 2-7 (231-323) 21 ART not ranked
Fri 11/27 at Nebraska 4-6 (339-291) 20 ART not ranked
Comments: The Hawkeyes are kind of sneaking up on people. They don’t’ play Ohio State or either of the Michigan schools in the regular season. They also don’t play anyone with a winning record the rest of the way. But then comes the Big Ten title game if they make it that far. That will be the litmus test.
OKLAHOMA STATE 9-0 (401-214) 0 ART rank: 5-5-6-8 total: 80
Sat 11/14 at Iowa State 3-6 (228-289) 6 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 Baylor 8-0 (459-200) 0 ART rank: 4-3-4-6 total: 87
Sat 11/28 Oklahoma 8-1 (417-163) 33 ART rank: 12-11-1-12 total: 59
Comments: Okie State sure looked for real against TCU. And they get Baylor and Oklahoma at home. The Bedlam game may prove bigger than it ever has before.
HOUSTON 9-0 (400-168) 0 ART rank: 16-16-16-24 total: 32
Sat 11/14 Memphis 8-1 (383-213) 26 ART rank: 25-25-25-21 total: 8
Sat 11/21 at Connecticut 5-5 (190-193) 1 ART not ranked
Fri 11/27 Navy 7-1 (283-152) 38 ART not ranked
Comments: Comparative scores: Houston 34 Vanderbilt 0. Florida 9 Vanderbilt 7. Misleading? Maybe, but that’s quite a difference. The remaining hurdles are Memphis and Navy. If they get by them, They’ll likely play Temple ion the conference title game. They are unlikely to make the playoff but should be playing on New Year’s Day.
ONE LOSS POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS
(I’m assuming that a one loss non-power conference team will have no shot at the playoff.)
ALABAMA 8-1 (298-147) 148 ART rank: 3-4-2-2 total: 93
11/14 at Mississippi State 7-2 (312-155) 10 ART rank: 20-20-23-17 total: 24
11/21 Charleston Southern 7-1 (279-138) ranked #13 in FCS
11/28 at Auburn 5-4 (244-245) 23 ART not ranked
Comments: They looked like Alabama again against LSU, winning the game in the trenches. Mississippi State could be a dangerous opponent and Auburn is looking better than they did early in the year. But you’ve gotta like the Tide to be in the playoff. The most undefeated power conference champions we could have is three and the Tide would surely be the #1 one loss team if they win out.
NOTRE DAME 8-1 (334-208) 41 ART rank: 6-6-5-4 total: 83
11/14 Wake Forest 3-6 (168-207) 8 ART
11/21 Boston College 3-7 (173-141) 7 ART
11/28 at Stanford 8-1 (334-182) 59 ART rank: 7-7-8-7 total: 75
Comments: That Notre Dame-Stanford will be a knock-off game for the loser. The winner is going to be doing some scoreboard watching.
STANFORD 8-1 (334-182) 59 ART rank: 7-7-8-7 total: 75
11/14 Oregon 6-3 (380-335) 18 ART
11/21 California 5-4 (314-258) 15 ART
11/28 Notre Dame 8-1 (334-208) 41 ART rank: 6-6-5-4 total: 83
Comment: The Cardinal faces three substantial opponents. Let’s not assume that just because they are having a down year, Oregon isn’t dangerous. The thing is, these are all home game. The other thing is that the Pac 12 has a championship game, which would be against another substantial opponent, (Utah, UCLA or USC). Even if they make it through that, would you put them in over Alabama if the ACC, Big Ten and the Big 12 all have undefeated champions? This is a very tough row to hoe.
FLORIDA 8-1 (257-131) 51 ART rank: 10-11-10-11 total: 70
Sat 11/14 at South Carolina 3-6 (195-246) 0 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 Florida Atlantic 2-7 (206-270) 0 ART not ranked
Sat 11/28 Florida State 7-2 (275-157) 15 ART rank: 19-18-17-16 total: 44
Comments: They will have an easy time the next two weeks but then comes Florida State and probably Alabama in the SEC title game. That comparison with Houston is concerning. The Gators will likely watch the playoff on TV.
LOUISIANA STATE 7-1 (288-188) 68 ART rank: 9-9-9-17 total: 70
Sat 11/14 Arkansas 5-4 (313-265) 19 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 at Mississippi 7-3 (407-230) 61 ART not ranked
Sat 11/28 Texas A&M 6-3 (267-223) 50 ART not ranked
Comments: They took on Alabama in the trenches and lost. No, Leonard Fournette is not worse than Derrick Henry. Henry had holes to run through. Fournette did not. I thought all along that the Tigers were too one-dimensional to make it to the playoff. They now have to sweep three pretty decent teams and hope that Alabama trips up. Even if the door opens for them to have a chance to win the SEC, The Stanford- Notre Dame winner would be a better choice for the final spot.
OKLAHOMA 8-1 (417-163) 33 ART rank: 12-11-10-12 total: 59
Sat 11/14 at Baylor 8-0 (459-200) 0 ART rank: 4-3-4-6 total: 87
Sat 11/21 Texas Christian 8-1 (420-245) 0 ART rank: 13-12-13-15 total: 51
Sat 11/28 at Oklahoma State 9-0 (401-214) 38 ART rank: 5-5-6-8 total: 80
Comments: The Sooners might actually be the best of the Big Eight’s Big Four, (they’ve won their last four games by an average of 46 points), but here come the other three, right in a row. Oklahoma State and TCU only have two them to play. The Sooners already have a loss- they tripped up against Texas but turned their season around after that game. Obviously they can’t afford another. But that was a week five loss and could be forgotten or at least forgiven if they win out.
UTAH 8-1 (304-194) 61 ART rank: 10-13-12-10 total: 59
Sat 11/14 at Arizona 5-5 (367-346) 6 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 UCLA 7-2 (325-221) 66 ART not ranked
Sat 11/28 Colorado 4-6 (279-283) 0 ART not ranked
Comments: The Pac 10 is the best conference in country, top to bottom. Every team is dangerous. They’ll all take a bite out of each other before it’s done. Anybody who emerges from this with just one wound will have a serious shot at playoff. Could that be Utah? Stay tuned.
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 8-1 (420-245) 0 ART rank: 13-12-13-15 total: 51
Sat 11/14 Kansas 0-9 (152-436) 0 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 at Oklahoma 8-1 (417-163) 33 ART rank: 12-11-10-8 total: 80
Fri 11/27 Baylor 8-0 (459-200) 0 ART rank: 4-3-4-6 total: 87
Comments They were the first of the big four in the big 12 to lose a stare-down contest. They still have a chance to come back if they can beat Oklahoma and Baylor but I don’t trust their defense, (which is what they were once known for). And a one-loss Big 12 champion may find themselves without a chair when the music stops playing.
MICHIGAN STATE 8-1 (305-216) 40 ART rank: 14-14-14-13 total: 49
Sat 11/14 Maryland 2-7 (215-301) 4 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 at Ohio State 9-0 (336-135) 0 ART rank: 2-1-3-3 total: 95
Sat 11/28 Penn State 7-3 (252-177) 2 ART not ranked
Comments: The Spartans got ripped off at Nebraska with a call that everybody in the country but the refs knew was a bad call. Now their hope is to beat Ohio State, (and don’t ignore Penn State), and win the Big Ten title game. But it’s not obvious that would get them into the tournament.
NORTH CAROLINA 8-1 (361-167) 10 ART rank: 17-17-18-23 Total: 29
11/14 U of Miami 6-3 (259-242) 16 ART
11/21 at Virginia Tech 4-5 (275-219) 8 ART
11/28 at North Carolina State 6-3 (311-177) 8 ART
Comments: The Tar Heels have snuck up on people this year. If they win one more game they will have their most wins since Mack brown was there, (1997). They can sure score, putting up 66 points on a Duke team that thought they were pretty good. I can’t see them in the playoff but they could spoil Clemson’s dreams and that might be a stepping stone for their own future dreams.
Top non-power conference teams, (in contention for the Joe Pesci Bowl: we’re not big but don’t’ mess with us!), Houston 9-0, Memphis 8-1, Toledo 7-1, Navy 7-1 and Temple 8-1.
Trying to avoid the Tydee Bowl: Central Florida 0-10 and Kansas 0-9,
Also: Eastern Michigan 1-9, Louisiana-Monroe 1-8, Massachusetts 1-8, , North Texas 1-8, Southern Methodist 1-8, Texas San Antonio 1-8, Wyoming 1-8.
(Certain parties will be glad to know that Miami University is now 2-8)
A note on rankings: the first is the ranking of the AP (writer’s) poll, then the USA Today (coach’s) poll the ESPN power ranking and finally College Football Playoff Committee, (which won’t start until November 3rd). The total is based on a 25 points for 1st, 24 for 2nd, etc. system. They are listed in order of that total. (Shortcut- if they are ranked in all the polls: add the rankings and subtract from 78 or 104 once the committee joins in.)
I’ll also include the team’s points “Against Ranked Teams” from my latest post of that title, their won-lost record and their points for and against. I’ll supply the same info in the same format for each future opponent.
CLEMSON 9-0 (348-154) 42 ART rank: 1-2-1-1 total: 99
Sat 11/14 at Syracuse 3-6 (251-276) 8 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 Wake Forest 3-6 (168-207) 8 ART not ranked
Sat 11/28 at South Carolina 3-6 (195-246) 0 ART not ranked
Comments: The rest of the regular season schedule is a tiptoe through the tulips. UNC in the ACC title game could present a substantial roadblock to the playoff. I doubt a one loss ACXC team would get in, and especially not one that had just lost for the first time. Voters have short memories and it’s better to lose early than to lose late.
OHIO STATE 9-0 (336-135) 0 points against ranked teams (ART) rank: 2-1-3-3 total: 95
Sat 11/14 at Illinois 5-4 (232-195) 2 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 Michigan State 8-1 (305-216) 40 ART rank: 14-14-14-13 total: 49
Sat 11/28 at Michigan 7-2 (278-109) 101 ART rank: 15-15-15-14 total: 45
Comments: T. J. Barrett was suspended for a game but they still have Cardell Jones. Illinois is slumping so the Buckeyes likely won’t be threatened until they face the Michigan teams. They have zero points against ranked teams but they didn’t have any at this point last year, either.
BAYLOR 8-0 (459-200) 0 ART rank: 4-3-4-6 total: 87
Sat 11/14 Oklahoma 8-1 (417-163) 33 ART rank: 12-11-10-12 total: 59
Sat 11/21 at Oklahoma State 9-0 (401-214) 38 ART rank: 5-5-6-8 total: 80
Fri 11/27 at Texas Christian 8-1 (420-245) 0 ART rank: 13-12-13-15 total: 51
Sat 12/ 5 Texas 4-5 (229-261) 23 A RT not ranked
Comments: The Bears are about to play their first ranked team this season. Then their second, then their third. If they survive that, they’ll be in the playoff. If they don’t, they probably won’t.
IOWA 9-0 (296-149) 47 ART rank: 8-8-7-5 total: 76
Sat 11/14 Minnesota 4-5 (183-219) 34 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 Purdue 2-7 (231-323) 21 ART not ranked
Fri 11/27 at Nebraska 4-6 (339-291) 20 ART not ranked
Comments: The Hawkeyes are kind of sneaking up on people. They don’t’ play Ohio State or either of the Michigan schools in the regular season. They also don’t play anyone with a winning record the rest of the way. But then comes the Big Ten title game if they make it that far. That will be the litmus test.
OKLAHOMA STATE 9-0 (401-214) 0 ART rank: 5-5-6-8 total: 80
Sat 11/14 at Iowa State 3-6 (228-289) 6 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 Baylor 8-0 (459-200) 0 ART rank: 4-3-4-6 total: 87
Sat 11/28 Oklahoma 8-1 (417-163) 33 ART rank: 12-11-1-12 total: 59
Comments: Okie State sure looked for real against TCU. And they get Baylor and Oklahoma at home. The Bedlam game may prove bigger than it ever has before.
HOUSTON 9-0 (400-168) 0 ART rank: 16-16-16-24 total: 32
Sat 11/14 Memphis 8-1 (383-213) 26 ART rank: 25-25-25-21 total: 8
Sat 11/21 at Connecticut 5-5 (190-193) 1 ART not ranked
Fri 11/27 Navy 7-1 (283-152) 38 ART not ranked
Comments: Comparative scores: Houston 34 Vanderbilt 0. Florida 9 Vanderbilt 7. Misleading? Maybe, but that’s quite a difference. The remaining hurdles are Memphis and Navy. If they get by them, They’ll likely play Temple ion the conference title game. They are unlikely to make the playoff but should be playing on New Year’s Day.
ONE LOSS POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS
(I’m assuming that a one loss non-power conference team will have no shot at the playoff.)
ALABAMA 8-1 (298-147) 148 ART rank: 3-4-2-2 total: 93
11/14 at Mississippi State 7-2 (312-155) 10 ART rank: 20-20-23-17 total: 24
11/21 Charleston Southern 7-1 (279-138) ranked #13 in FCS
11/28 at Auburn 5-4 (244-245) 23 ART not ranked
Comments: They looked like Alabama again against LSU, winning the game in the trenches. Mississippi State could be a dangerous opponent and Auburn is looking better than they did early in the year. But you’ve gotta like the Tide to be in the playoff. The most undefeated power conference champions we could have is three and the Tide would surely be the #1 one loss team if they win out.
NOTRE DAME 8-1 (334-208) 41 ART rank: 6-6-5-4 total: 83
11/14 Wake Forest 3-6 (168-207) 8 ART
11/21 Boston College 3-7 (173-141) 7 ART
11/28 at Stanford 8-1 (334-182) 59 ART rank: 7-7-8-7 total: 75
Comments: That Notre Dame-Stanford will be a knock-off game for the loser. The winner is going to be doing some scoreboard watching.
STANFORD 8-1 (334-182) 59 ART rank: 7-7-8-7 total: 75
11/14 Oregon 6-3 (380-335) 18 ART
11/21 California 5-4 (314-258) 15 ART
11/28 Notre Dame 8-1 (334-208) 41 ART rank: 6-6-5-4 total: 83
Comment: The Cardinal faces three substantial opponents. Let’s not assume that just because they are having a down year, Oregon isn’t dangerous. The thing is, these are all home game. The other thing is that the Pac 12 has a championship game, which would be against another substantial opponent, (Utah, UCLA or USC). Even if they make it through that, would you put them in over Alabama if the ACC, Big Ten and the Big 12 all have undefeated champions? This is a very tough row to hoe.
FLORIDA 8-1 (257-131) 51 ART rank: 10-11-10-11 total: 70
Sat 11/14 at South Carolina 3-6 (195-246) 0 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 Florida Atlantic 2-7 (206-270) 0 ART not ranked
Sat 11/28 Florida State 7-2 (275-157) 15 ART rank: 19-18-17-16 total: 44
Comments: They will have an easy time the next two weeks but then comes Florida State and probably Alabama in the SEC title game. That comparison with Houston is concerning. The Gators will likely watch the playoff on TV.
LOUISIANA STATE 7-1 (288-188) 68 ART rank: 9-9-9-17 total: 70
Sat 11/14 Arkansas 5-4 (313-265) 19 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 at Mississippi 7-3 (407-230) 61 ART not ranked
Sat 11/28 Texas A&M 6-3 (267-223) 50 ART not ranked
Comments: They took on Alabama in the trenches and lost. No, Leonard Fournette is not worse than Derrick Henry. Henry had holes to run through. Fournette did not. I thought all along that the Tigers were too one-dimensional to make it to the playoff. They now have to sweep three pretty decent teams and hope that Alabama trips up. Even if the door opens for them to have a chance to win the SEC, The Stanford- Notre Dame winner would be a better choice for the final spot.
OKLAHOMA 8-1 (417-163) 33 ART rank: 12-11-10-12 total: 59
Sat 11/14 at Baylor 8-0 (459-200) 0 ART rank: 4-3-4-6 total: 87
Sat 11/21 Texas Christian 8-1 (420-245) 0 ART rank: 13-12-13-15 total: 51
Sat 11/28 at Oklahoma State 9-0 (401-214) 38 ART rank: 5-5-6-8 total: 80
Comments: The Sooners might actually be the best of the Big Eight’s Big Four, (they’ve won their last four games by an average of 46 points), but here come the other three, right in a row. Oklahoma State and TCU only have two them to play. The Sooners already have a loss- they tripped up against Texas but turned their season around after that game. Obviously they can’t afford another. But that was a week five loss and could be forgotten or at least forgiven if they win out.
UTAH 8-1 (304-194) 61 ART rank: 10-13-12-10 total: 59
Sat 11/14 at Arizona 5-5 (367-346) 6 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 UCLA 7-2 (325-221) 66 ART not ranked
Sat 11/28 Colorado 4-6 (279-283) 0 ART not ranked
Comments: The Pac 10 is the best conference in country, top to bottom. Every team is dangerous. They’ll all take a bite out of each other before it’s done. Anybody who emerges from this with just one wound will have a serious shot at playoff. Could that be Utah? Stay tuned.
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 8-1 (420-245) 0 ART rank: 13-12-13-15 total: 51
Sat 11/14 Kansas 0-9 (152-436) 0 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 at Oklahoma 8-1 (417-163) 33 ART rank: 12-11-10-8 total: 80
Fri 11/27 Baylor 8-0 (459-200) 0 ART rank: 4-3-4-6 total: 87
Comments They were the first of the big four in the big 12 to lose a stare-down contest. They still have a chance to come back if they can beat Oklahoma and Baylor but I don’t trust their defense, (which is what they were once known for). And a one-loss Big 12 champion may find themselves without a chair when the music stops playing.
MICHIGAN STATE 8-1 (305-216) 40 ART rank: 14-14-14-13 total: 49
Sat 11/14 Maryland 2-7 (215-301) 4 ART not ranked
Sat 11/21 at Ohio State 9-0 (336-135) 0 ART rank: 2-1-3-3 total: 95
Sat 11/28 Penn State 7-3 (252-177) 2 ART not ranked
Comments: The Spartans got ripped off at Nebraska with a call that everybody in the country but the refs knew was a bad call. Now their hope is to beat Ohio State, (and don’t ignore Penn State), and win the Big Ten title game. But it’s not obvious that would get them into the tournament.
NORTH CAROLINA 8-1 (361-167) 10 ART rank: 17-17-18-23 Total: 29
11/14 U of Miami 6-3 (259-242) 16 ART
11/21 at Virginia Tech 4-5 (275-219) 8 ART
11/28 at North Carolina State 6-3 (311-177) 8 ART
Comments: The Tar Heels have snuck up on people this year. If they win one more game they will have their most wins since Mack brown was there, (1997). They can sure score, putting up 66 points on a Duke team that thought they were pretty good. I can’t see them in the playoff but they could spoil Clemson’s dreams and that might be a stepping stone for their own future dreams.
Top non-power conference teams, (in contention for the Joe Pesci Bowl: we’re not big but don’t’ mess with us!), Houston 9-0, Memphis 8-1, Toledo 7-1, Navy 7-1 and Temple 8-1.
Trying to avoid the Tydee Bowl: Central Florida 0-10 and Kansas 0-9,
Also: Eastern Michigan 1-9, Louisiana-Monroe 1-8, Massachusetts 1-8, , North Texas 1-8, Southern Methodist 1-8, Texas San Antonio 1-8, Wyoming 1-8.
(Certain parties will be glad to know that Miami University is now 2-8)